Keith Law's Prospect Stuff on Sawx

[sk7326]

Red Sox 10th ranked system: http://espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14726383/atlanta-braves-top-farm-system-rankings-2016-mlb

 

Decimated by promotions the past two years and the recent trade for Craig Kimbrel, which cost them two top-100 prospects and two others of some value, yet big international spending and some productive drafts still have the Red Sox a top-10 system overall. Drafting Andrew Benintendi, who showed in pro ball that his huge spring for the University of Arkansas wasn't just a four-month fluke, also helped.

 

2016 Top 100 ... Sox Blurbs ... Team clearly hit hard by trades and graduations ... but nobody is starving

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14740563/index-top-100-prospects-2016-including-corey-seager-others-mlb

 

#7: Rafael Devers

Devers didn't come into 2015 with the hype of eventual teammate Yoan Moncada -- both played for a loaded Class A Greenville Drive infield that also featured Javier Guerra, now in the Padres organization -- but Devers established himself as Boston's top prospect with an impressive all-around performance that showed he has the acumen to match his prodigious tools. He has huge power, with electric hands and a rotational, balanced swing that allows him to drive off his back leg. For such a big guy, he has remarkable plate coverage, rarely striking out -- he was vulnerable just to hard stuff up and in when I saw him -- so while his walk rates appear low, he was far from overmatched for an 18-year-old in full-season ball, with only 42 games of stateside experience coming into the season.

 

The knock on Devers has been his defense at third, but I see no reason he can't stay at the position and even play it well. Devers is large for the hot corner, but that's the only cause for any doubt; he has great hands, a 70-grade arm and is quite agile for a big man. The bat would profile at first base, of course, with the power and contact upside there, but the potential for above-average defense at third on top of 30-35 homers and a high batting average (even if it's without a high OBP) is what makes him a top-10 prospect.

 

#17. Yoan Moncada

 

Moncada's debut season for the Red Sox probably didn't match the hype or high expectations fans had for him, but much of that probably derived from the huge amount of money the team paid ($31.5 million, plus a 100 percent penalty to MLB for exceeding their international budget cap) to sign him -- itself a reflection of a broken system more than a straight valuation of his talent. Moncada is still a premium prospect. He's no longer a shortstop and maybe without the huge power bat we expected, but a likely above-average regular with a couple of paths to becoming an All-Star.

 

Moncada played about a half-season for Greenville, debuting in late May, but he didn't start to hit for much contact or average until about 30-40 games into the season; from July 1 (an arbitrary start point) on, he hit .305/.414/.503 with a 20 percent K rate, down from the nearly 28 percent rate he had before that. He has plus bat speed, but in mid-June he still seemed to struggle to recognize pitch types, which improved in the second half of his season. He's also a true switch-hitter, with a slightly better swing from the left side, although he did hit for more average and power right-handed, where his swing is a bit shorter and quicker to the ball. He's a fringe runner out of the box but is better around the bases, and showed good range at second base in both directions, although he fields with his body more upright than just about any major league second baseman I can think of.

 

The best projection for Moncada right now is as a second baseman who hits for a high average with 15-18 homers a year, since neither of his swings right now is that geared to drive the ball. Given his inexperience -- he played only about 100 games in Cuba before defecting -- he still needs more time and room to grow than your typical 20-year-old.

 

#18. Andrew Benintendi

Benintendi was not on the national radar going into the spring of 2015 as a draft-eligible sophomore at the University of Arkansas who hit one home run in a 2014 season in which he played through some injuries. He started hitting right away, though, and ended the spring with a .376/.488/.717 line, winning the Golden Spikes Trophy and the SEC Player of the Year award. A 31st-rounder out of high school, Benintendi jumped to the eighth pick in the country two years later -- and even that might have been a bit late.

 

Benintendi has an unusual profile: He's a short, athletic power-hitting center fielder with the potential for a Mike Cameron stat line from a Reed Johnson body. He's a plus runner with above-average to plus power, and the early consensus on him in pro ball is that he will stay in center field, or at least won't have to move, although Boston has a surfeit of legitimate plus defenders in center who could push a couple of qualified gloves to the corners. He's probably a 55 defender in center when it's all said and done, an above-average runner with good instincts, a potential 20-homer, 20-steal guy at a position where, other than Mike Trout, that kind of player just doesn't exist much anymore.

 

Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber went from college to the majors in 12 to 13 months, and given Benintendi's skill set and the approach he showed in his 54 games in pro ball last year, I see no reason he couldn't do the same if need be.

 

#38. Anderson Espinoza

 

He might be Pedro Martinez or he might be a right-handed Aroldis Chapman, but one thing Anderson Espinoza will not be is short of hyperbole. The 17-year-old Dominican right-hander lit the low minors on fire last year, even finishing the summer with a single outing at Class A Greenville, and won't even turn 18 until March. With three big league-caliber pitches and shocking feel for his age, Espinoza is the living definition of a player being "scary good," because we haven't seen a player like him in quite a while.

 

Espinoza stuck to about four innings per outing in 2015, by which I mean he went exactly four innings in 13 straight outings before he actually pitched poorly enough to be removed from a game for a reason other than a pitch count. He sat 94-99 mph all summer, and also showed a plus changeup and a plus curveball, although he wouldn't necessarily have all three pitches working on any single night. He has great confidence in the changeup and will use it against right-handed batters, a great sign for his pitching acumen, given his youth. His body looks as if it'll fill out enough for him to handle a starter's workload, but he's already throwing so hard -- and so easy -- at 17 that it's hard to come up with enough comparisons in recent memory to talk intelligently about the odds he'll stay healthy as a starter. If he does, we'll be talking about him in the same way as we did young King Felix and Doc Gooden.

 

FWIW: Margot #25, Guerra #34

[Kimmi]

Red Sox 10th ranked system: http://espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14726383/atlanta-braves-top-farm-system-rankings-2016-mlb

 

2016 Top 100 ... Sox Blurbs ... Team clearly hit hard by trades and graduations ... but nobody is starving

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14740563/index-top-100-prospects-2016-including-corey-seager-others-mlb

 

#7: Rafael Devers

 

#17. Yoan Moncada

 

#18. Andrew Benintendi

 

#38. Anderson Espinoza

 

FWIW: Margot #25, Guerra #34

 

Considering that our system has been "decimated" by recent graduations and the Kimbrel trade, having 3 prospects in the top 20 and still being ranked a top 10 farm is pretty remarkable.

[Spudboy]

Does anyone know the probability of a newly signed prospect making it to the bigs and being at least replacement level?

 

I'd love to see that number.

[cp176]

ah wait - couple things - baseball America has the Red Sox farm system ranked 4th. Good luck trying to figure out why someone has us number 10 and someone has us number 4. 7 and a half works for me. Also - Our farm system was in no way decimated by the Kimbrel trade and graduations. For starters I would say look at Margot's rankings before the trade and the rapid advancement he miraculously took after the trade was completed. Ridiculous!

[SoxHop]

Heck....... this article makes me really want to see Espinoza. Will he start in single A this year.....?

[mvp 78]

Espinoza is great. Keith Law is ok.

[Dojji]

Considering that our system has been "decimated" by recent graduations and the Kimbrel trade, having 3 prospects in the top 20 and still being ranked a top 10 farm is pretty remarkable.

Yep, one thing Cherington did really well was stock the farm. Credit to him on that point, even if his big league moves were not the best

[sk7326]

ah wait - couple things - baseball America has the Red Sox farm system ranked 4th. Good luck trying to figure out why someone has us number 10 and someone has us number 4. 7 and a half works for me. Also - Our farm system was in no way decimated by the Kimbrel trade and graduations. For starters I would say look at Margot's rankings before the trade and the rapid advancement he miraculously took after the trade was completed. Ridiculous!

 

I think Law had Margot as a Top 30 guy anyway - good upside, but lots of polish. I put these up not so much as an endorsement as some comprehensive opinions that are behind a paywall. He is very bullish on Guerra. Really when you look at it, #4 and #10 is not a huge difference, and can come down to upside valuation. (the Red Sox have taken a large hit in the guys close to major league ready - because a lot of them are playing!)

[sk7326]

Heck....... this article makes me really want to see Espinoza. Will he start in single A this year.....?

 

Greenville I think. He had to finish in Greenville last season because he was too young too be eligible for the AFL.

[cp176]

I think Law had Margot as a Top 30 guy anyway - good upside, but lots of polish. I put these up not so much as an endorsement as some comprehensive opinions that are behind a paywall. He is very bullish on Guerra. Really when you look at it, #4 and #10 is not a huge difference, and can come down to upside valuation. (the Red Sox have taken a large hit in the guys close to major league ready - because a lot of them are playing!)

 

I agree with you. But I will say that the Kimbrel trade has to be considered as part of the "hit", but I don't see it as considerable at all.

[a700hitter]

With youngsters Betts and Bogaerts locking down CF and SS and hopefully Bradley and Castillo holding down 2 OF spots and with Vasquez and Swihart at Catcher, the best use of our farm (particularly the position players) is probably as trade chips (with one or 2 exceptions) to fill in the gaps with seasoned major leaguers.

[Dojji]

It will be once all those people pan out and there's no need to replace injuries. Meanwhile back in the real world there will always be a use for a prospect or two in the wings.

[a700hitter]

It will be once all those people pan out and there's no need to replace injuries. Meanwhile back in the real world there will always be a use for a prospect or two in the wings.

Agreed. We need to see how the current crop of young major leaguers works out. If they have doubts about some of them, maybe they should move them while they have a high value. I would not let Moncado and one or 2 others go unless overwhelmed.

[Kimmi]

Does anyone know the probability of a newly signed prospect making it to the bigs and being at least replacement level?

 

I'd love to see that number.

 

Looking at data from 1987 through 2008, courtesy of Baseball America, 17.2% of signed draft picks will make it to the majors. Only 5.5% stick for at least 3 years.

 

Most of the success rate comes from first round picks, as would be expected. 73% of first round picks make it to the majors, and 39.1% stick for at least 3 years.

[Kimmi]

ah wait - couple things - baseball America has the Red Sox farm system ranked 4th. Good luck trying to figure out why someone has us number 10 and someone has us number 4. 7 and a half works for me. Also - Our farm system was in no way decimated by the Kimbrel trade and graduations. For starters I would say look at Margot's rankings before the trade and the rapid advancement he miraculously took after the trade was completed. Ridiculous!

 

The word "decimated" was used tongue in cheek, but the farm has lost a lot of good prospects in the past couple of years due to graduating them or due to trades. The fact that the farm is not decimated is a testament to how deep and strong it was to begin with.

[User Name]

Looking at data from 1987 through 2008, courtesy of Baseball America, 17.2% of signed draft picks will make it to the majors. Only 5.5% stick for at least 3 years.

 

Most of the success rate comes from first round picks, as would be expected. 73% of first round picks make it to the majors, and 39.1% stick for at least 3 years.

 

I think he means a guy that put ink to paper, then made it to the Majors the very next year. Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber are two recent examples. Both signed in 2014, and made an impact (132 OPS+ for Conforto, 128 for Schwarber) immediately.

[Kimmi]

I think he means a guy that put ink to paper, then made it to the Majors the very next year. Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber are two recent examples. Both signed in 2014, and made an impact (132 OPS+ for Conforto, 128 for Schwarber) immediately.

 

Ah. I will look into it.

[sk7326]

You never "pick" a guy drafted last year to have an impact on 2016. However, Benintendi has the profile (accomplished collegian, slaughtered the short season levels) to at least be on a watch list. One expects he starts in Salem but with every expectation he's not gonna be there long ... although he might force them to start him right at Portland.

[Spudboy]

Looking at data from 1987 through 2008, courtesy of Baseball America, 17.2% of signed draft picks will make it to the majors. Only 5.5% stick for at least 3 years.

 

Most of the success rate comes from first round picks, as would be expected. 73% of first round picks make it to the majors, and 39.1% stick for at least 3 years.

 

 

Interesting stuff. Thanks.

[Spudboy]

I think he means a guy that put ink to paper, then made it to the Majors the very next year. Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber are two recent examples. Both signed in 2014, and made an impact (132 OPS+ for Conforto, 128 for Schwarber) immediately.

 

If "he" is me, then no. I meant any drafted player that makes it or not in any period of time.

[Kimmi]

ah wait - couple things - baseball America has the Red Sox farm system ranked 4th. Good luck trying to figure out why someone has us number 10 and someone has us number 4. 7 and a half works for me. Also - Our farm system was in no way decimated by the Kimbrel trade and graduations. For starters I would say look at Margot's rankings before the trade and the rapid advancement he miraculously took after the trade was completed. Ridiculous!

 

Baseball America has 5 Sox in the top 100, and 4 in the top 20.

 

#3 Moncada

 

#15 Benintendi

 

#18 Devers

 

#19 Espinoza

 

#89 Kopech

 

Apparently, they really like Espinoza's fastball.

[Kimmi]

Ah. I will look into it.

 

Since the amateur June draft began in 1965, there have been 21 players who have gone straight to the majors after being drafted, the two most recent being Xavier Nady and Mike Leake. Going straight to the majors is something that has slowed considerably since the 70s. One of the reasons is probably because teams want to delay the player's arbitration clock.

[Station 13]

Baseball America has 5 Sox in the top 100, and 4 in the top 20.

 

#3 Moncada

 

#15 Benintendi

 

#18 Devers

 

#19 Espinoza

 

#89 Kopech

 

Apparently, they really like Espinoza's fastball.

 

I like Espinoza too, that command at age 17 with the velocity behind it? Look out. Most of these guys will be up within the next 18 months, exciting time ahead.

 

Very interesting that Devers, Benintendi, Moncada are ranked our #1 by various publication.

Edited February 13, 2016 by Station 13

[Kimmi]

I like Espinoza too, that command at age 17 with the velocity behind it? Look out. Most of these guys will be up within the next 18 months, exciting time ahead.

 

Very interesting that Devers, Benintendi, Moncada are ranked our #1 by various publication.

 

The long term outlook of our team is very exciting. It's even more exciting that it looks like we have the real deal in a pitching prospect, something that the Sox have not fared well with recently.

[Station 13]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects/

 

The complete list, some of these guys are as old as Betts/Bogaerts/Erod, or OLDER.

[Station 13]

The long term outlook of our team is very exciting. It's even more exciting that it looks like we have the real deal in a pitching prospect, something that the Sox have not fared well with recently.

 

It is very exciting with a established young core at the MLB level already and having the next wave that soon to arrive that includes a stud pitching prospect in the mix. Just what the doc order.

[cp176]

Espinoza although very young looks like the real deal. He still has a way to go for sure. I like Kopech and am anxious to see how this year works out for him. Because of his suspension and Espinoza's emergence, his name gets lost in the shuffle somewhat. He might be a very pleasant surprise.

[sk7326]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects/

 

The complete list, some of these guys are as old as Betts/Bogaerts/Erod, or OLDER.

 

Some of them are older than the incumbent NL MVP!

[a700hitter]

I always followed the Red Sox minor league system. In recent years, I have been following prospects of other organizations, because several of my fantasy leagues have minor league drafts. I like to be competitive in those leagues so I have to do my homework before and during the season. But for that, prospects are sort of like the tree that falls in the forest with no one around to hear. It doesn't matter to me much until they are making significant progress and are a step or two away. That's just me. I'm a big league fan and I watch every Red Sox game and tons of games of other teams. I just can't get too excited about the minors. I do like seeing the kids in the flesh at big league Spring Training to size them up against the big boys. If a kid shows promise at Spring training, I do make a note that I could be seeing them during the season. If they look like a deer caught in the headlights, they go back to the forest.

[Kimmi]

It is very exciting with a established young core at the MLB level already and having the next wave that soon to arrive that includes a stud pitching prospect in the mix. Just what the doc order.

 

I know that you can't field a team with all home grown players, and that free agents are a necessary evil, but I (and I'm sure most people feel the same) get so much more satisfaction from watching our young players play than I do from watching the free agents. This is nothing against someone like Price. I know I will love watching him pitch for us, but nothing beats the home grown talent.