Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[User Name]

They are consistently beating him with average fastballs. He's as easy an out as you can have at the MLB level for a pitcher right now.

[SoxnCycles]

The team's pitching in May is more along the lines of what we thought we were getting. I currently have no confidence in this offense. None. It's worse than last year.

 

Yup, the pitching staff is still going to have bad games, but a team ERA in the low 4s is more in line with what I expected.

 

When your top hitter is the utility guy and the next guy is .030 BA points below that, you got issues.

Napoli is definitely the most disappointing of the lot. After the spring training he had, I though he was ready for a big season.

 

Just goes to show how misleading ST stats can be.

 

Can we start with not sucking at Fenway any longer and go from there?

[cp176]

Yup, the pitching staff is still going to have bad games, but a team ERA in the low 4s is more in line with what I expected.

 

When your top hitter is the utility guy and the next guy is .030 BA points below that, you got issues.

Napoli is definitely the most disappointing of the lot. After the spring training he had, I though he was ready for a big season.

 

Just goes to show how misleading ST stats can be.

 

Can we start with not sucking at Fenway any longer and go from there?

 

 

I think this team's overall production shows how any stats can be mis-leading.

[User Name]

The only thing this team's overall production has shown is that they've sucked. How you can spin that into a "stats are misleading" post is beyond me.

[cp176]

The only thing this team's overall production has shown is that they've sucked. How you can spin that into a "stats are misleading" post is beyond me.

 

 

You think the stats indicated that they were going to suck this bad?

[User Name]

I don't quite think you understand how statistical predictions work then, because it's the middle of May.

[Kimmi]

Yup, the pitching staff is still going to have bad games, but a team ERA in the low 4s is more in line with what I expected.

 

When your top hitter is the utility guy and the next guy is .030 BA points below that, you got issues.

Napoli is definitely the most disappointing of the lot. After the spring training he had, I though he was ready for a big season.

 

Just goes to show how misleading ST stats can be.

 

Can we start with not sucking at Fenway any longer and go from there?

 

Last night was a good start to the "not sucking at Fenway any longer" campaign.

 

Apparently, Napoli and Pedroia watched some video on the flight home from the west coast, and Pedroia figured out what Nap's problem was. My question is, why the heck hadn't the hitting coaches figured this out a long time ago? Isn't that their job?

[Kimmi]

I think this team's overall production shows how any stats can be mis-leading.

 

I don't quite get this CP. Does that mean that scouts are misleading too?

[sk7326]

You think the stats indicated that they were going to suck this bad?

 

Let's simplify this. The data so far shows they have sucked. The data says nothing about whether this team ACTUALLY SUCKS or not.

 

A .300 hitter could have an 0 for 21 slump. That 0 for 21 says nothing about the hitter's quality (the guy is a .300 hitter after all), but clearly those 21 at-bats did not go well.

[cp176]

I don't quite get this CP. Does that mean that scouts are misleading too?

 

 

I really didn't mean to cause an uproar over this. I know better. Learned my lessons. Understand my place. I guess I think that yes sometimes stats and scouts can be misleading. Once again not trying to get into kind of debate over the classic stats vs eyeball issue. Stats don't get their just due until the last shot is fired. I understand I hit a nerve. I'm not going there. No one could have predicted what is going on.

[cp176]

Let's simplify this. The data so far shows they have sucked. The data says nothing about whether this team ACTUALLY SUCKS or not.

 

A .300 hitter could have an 0 for 21 slump. That 0 for 21 says nothing about the hitter's quality (the guy is a .300 hitter after all), but clearly those 21 at-bats did not go well.

 

 

Agree - The data to date clearly shows that they are not performing to level that was predicted. Let's hope things change.

[sk7326]

Agree - The data to date clearly shows that they are not performing to level that was predicted. Let's hope things change.

 

The more important question (and this is more for the scouts) is how much of the underperformance is sheer luck and how much of it is problematic. For instance, Buchholz had a .362 BABIP. He has had issues executing pitchers clearly but that does not feel entirely sustainable either.

 

Ortiz, Betts both have subpar BABIPs - has typical non-homerun contact found fielders more frequently - or is it a bigger issue? My favorite stat so far is that the team is last in the AL in doubles - which is inconceivable for a team which plays half its games at Fenway.

[VA Sox Fan]

You informed/stats folks are giving me a headache!! Ha ha!

[Spudboy]

Last night was a good start to the "not sucking at Fenway any longer" campaign.

 

Apparently, Napoli and Pedroia watched some video on the flight home from the west coast, and Pedroia figured out what Nap's problem was. My question is, why the heck hadn't the hitting coaches figured this out a long time ago? Isn't that their job?

 

I saw that interview too. It seems so basic. Pedroia found it right away yet Davis didn't? Napoli said that Davis was involved after the flight.

 

In any case I hope that Nap goes on a tear.

[Palodios]

Last night was a good start to the "not sucking at Fenway any longer" campaign.

 

Apparently, Napoli and Pedroia watched some video on the flight home from the west coast, and Pedroia figured out what Nap's problem was. My question is, why the heck hadn't the hitting coaches figured this out a long time ago? Isn't that their job?

 

I was asking the same question. I didn't look into Davis much, but I'm not impressed with his track record. He's been in the bat-less Oakland Athletics for a few years and Pawtucket. It seems like he was a "Our guy" pick, and hasn't really proved anything.

[SoxnCycles]

I saw that interview too. It seems so basic. Pedroia found it right away yet Davis didn't? Napoli said that Davis was involved after the flight.

 

In any case I hope that Nap goes on a tear.

 

It probably has more to do with Pedey and Napoli having nothing better to do on a long flight than watching batting film, than it does with Davis not doing his job.

 

I'd prefer that Davis spend his time working with the younger players anyway.

 

The vets have been playing long enough to figure this stuff out for themselves.

[Kimmi]

Ortiz, Betts both have subpar BABIPs - has typical non-homerun contact found fielders more frequently - or is it a bigger issue? My favorite stat so far is that the team is last in the AL in doubles - which is inconceivable for a team which plays half its games at Fenway.

 

I was reading an article by Speier today in which he mentioned the team's .259 BABIP, which is the worst in the majors this year. No team since 2000 has had a BABIP below .269 and only 4 teams have been below .275. That's how bad their current BABIP is. Also, their strike out rate is the 2nd lowest in baseball, which means more balls in play. They should be getting more hits and scoring more runs. Why they aren't is an enigma.

[SoxHop]

I was reading an article by Speier today in which he mentioned the team's .259 BABIP, which is the worst in the majors this year. No team since 2000 has had a BABIP below .269 and only 4 teams have been below .275. That's how bad their current BABIP is. Also, their strike out rate is the 2nd lowest in baseball, which means more balls in play. They should be getting more hits and scoring more runs. Why they aren't is an enigma.

 

It seems like there have been many warning track shots. I'm starting to wonder if somehow we have a bunch of players that put the ball in play in the same place. Maybe we have spray chats that other teams read really well and adapt to if that is even possible.

 

With these shifts now days, a hitter that hits the ball around the park instead of in one certain area may have better success.

 

Watching the games most of the time I dont see where the defense sets up, but it would be interesting to know what's the defensive strategy against our hitters and how successful it is.

 

Like Username mentioned on last nights thread, some games it feels like everything hit is caught.

 

Or maybe it's just bad luck so far.

[Jasonbay44]

It seems like there have been many warning track shots. I'm starting to wonder if somehow we have a bunch of players that put the ball in play in the same place. Maybe we have spray chats that other teams read really well and adapt to if that is even possible.

 

With these shifts now days, a hitter that hits the ball around the park instead of in one certain area may have better success.

 

Watching the games most of the time I dont see where the defense sets up, but it would be interesting to know what's the defensive strategy against our hitters and how successful it is.

 

Like Username mentioned on last nights thread, some games it feels like everything hit is caught.

 

Or maybe it's just bad luck so far.

I haven't been able to watch as many games as I'd like this year, but I swear for a few guys, every time they hit the ball its a line drive right at someone. Mookie has an absurd amount of bad luck this year and you have to believe that eventually these deep fly balls and lineouts will turn into hits.

[sk7326]

Some context of the weirdness of the offensive struggles:

 

The Sox are 29th in strikeout rate ... the 2nd best team in the majors at not striking out

The Sox are 4th in walk rate ... the 4th best team in the bigs at drawing walks

The Sox are 30th in BABIP at .259 ... to give you an idea of how weird it is, 29th place (Astros) is .269. The Astros are closer to 23rd place than they are to the Sox.

 

The Sox are 25th in line drive rate - which can explain some of the poor BABIP. The Sox also lead the league in Infield PopUp Rate ... so the Sox have not been great in the "solid contact" area, but the results so far have been legitimately freakish.

[User Name]

They're also 1st in the Majors in "PissoffUserName?" rate, followed closely by the Yankees.

[User Name]

It seems like there have been many warning track shots. I'm starting to wonder if somehow we have a bunch of players that put the ball in play in the same place. Maybe we have spray chats that other teams read really well and adapt to if that is even possible.

 

With these shifts now days, a hitter that hits the ball around the park instead of in one certain area may have better success.

 

Watching the games most of the time I dont see where the defense sets up, but it would be interesting to know what's the defensive strategy against our hitters and how successful it is.

 

Like Username mentioned on last nights thread, some games it feels like everything hit is caught.

 

Or maybe it's just bad luck so far.

 

This team is built around hitters (Betts, Pedroia, Hanley, Panda, Victorino, Swihart, Ortiz to a lesser extent) who spray the ball all over the place. Their problem is, as SK expertly explained above, a combination of bad luck and a lack of solid contact.

[SoxHop]

The Sox are 25th in line drive rate - which can explain some of the poor BABIP.QUOTE]

 

Wait...... what does this mean exactly? What is better than a line drive other than an HR? Why would line drives be a bad thing and how would that add to a bad BAPIP?

[User Name]

 

Wait...... what does this mean exactly? What is better than a line drive other than an HR? Why would line drives be a bad thing and how would that add to a bad BAPIP?

 

A high line drive rate is a good thing. The Sox are 25th out of 30 teams, which is terrible. Because BABIP measures how many of the balls you put in play turn into hits, a low line drive rate is one of the most important factors explaining why the Red Sox are dead last in BABIP in the majors. Not a lot of hit balls find OF grass if they're not well hit.

[wyo-sox]

For whatever the reason, the hitting is awful. If the ship does not right itself at trade deadline time... I'm honestly thinking they should trade some of their big name offensive guys.. Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, etc... IF this year continues to play out as it currently is these guys will have led the team to be basically the worst team in baseball 3 of the last 4 years. As iconic as I feel Pedroia and Ortiz are.... it ain't working. What's the benefit to keeping the players we have? The results of keeping them is that we are an awful team. Something is prohibiting this team from living up to it's potential.

[sk7326]

You would EXPECT that those two factors ... "not making solid contact" AND "striking out" would be trending together - but for the Sox they are trending opposite. It's counterintuitive - which speaks to me as a bit of a flukish result that will get better.

[a700hitter]

You would EXPECT that those two factors ... "not making solid contact" AND "striking out" would be trending together - but for the Sox they are trending opposite. It's counterintuitive - which speaks to me as a bit of a flukish result that will get better.

There are a myriad of ways to succeed and fail. They don't follow any formula. You will drive yourself crazy with that stuff. Searching for a statistical reason for why we suck will not change the fact that we suck. Looking for positive statiscal trends to give us hope that we will start playing better doesn't mean much either, because those trends can change to the negative. People think that we will start winning a lot more games if the offense heats up. That maybe so, but if that coincides with the pitching going flat again, then maybe not. Good teams find ways to put things together to win games. It is not just the outcome of a bunch of random statistics. That being said, keep the stats coming that give us hope. We need all the hope that we can get, because this team is hard to watch right now. Edited May 22, 2015 by a700hitter

[SoxHop]

A high line drive rate is a good thing. The Sox are 25th out of 30 teams, which is terrible. Because BABIP measures how many of the balls you put in play turn into hits, a low line drive rate is one of the most important factors explaining why the Red Sox are dead last in BABIP in the majors. Not a lot of hit balls find OF grass if they're not well hit.

 

I read that wrong. Somehow I thought you wrote that the Sox had a high rating in line drives. Well, this makes sense.

 

You know what's going to be crazy is soon you will probably have a stat showing the speeds the balls are being hit and then can show statistics along those lines. What is that new technology called that reads the speed of balls hit?

[User Name]

I read that wrong. Somehow I thought you wrote that the Sox had a high rating in line drives. Well, this makes sense.

 

You know what's going to be crazy is soon you will probably have a stat showing the speeds the balls are being hit and then can show statistics along those lines. What is that new technology called that reads the speed of balls hit?

 

I know statcast has a component that does it, but I don't have the specific name.

[sk7326]

There are a myriad of ways to succeed and fail. They don't follow any formula. You will drive yourself crazy with that stuff. Searching for a statistical reason for why we suck will not change the fact that we suck. Looking for positive statiscal trends to give us hope that we will start playing better doesn't mean much either, because those trends can change to the negative. People think that we will start winning a lot more games if the offense heats up. That maybe so, but if that coincides with the pitching going flat again, then maybe not. Good teams find ways to put things together to win games. It is not just the outcome of a bunch of random statistics. That being said, keep the stats coming that give us hope. We need all the hope that we can get, because this team is hard to watch right now.

 

We will win more games if we score more runs or if we prevent more opposing runs.

 

The look at the statistics is not to generate hope - but to ask whether there is evidence from the mediocrity of the season to date that it will continue or get worse. For the most part - there isn't. Now is it possible for hitters to not be able to make solid contact anymore while still not striking out? Yes, but it doesn't make a ton of sense.

 

The good news is that there is plenty of time to fix this and the standings have bounced our way largely.