Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[sk7326]

The odds of Lester remaining a #1/2 over the 6 years is basically nil - if you defend resigning him (like I did), it was because you thought he could remain a #3/#4 sort of starter by the end of the deal, and that a gradual decline combined with the excellent durability would make the deal a net plus. I don't blame the Red Sox for their evaluation - although I am not sure I agree with it.

[User Name]

I liked Lester at 5/130 if that's what it took. The 6th year is the breaking point IMO. Too much risk.

[sk7326]

It was hard not to like the Porcello extension - you get his 26-30 years, where you can easily project a year or two of improvement ... and you try to put a defensive team around him which will benefit his superficial numbers more than the squad in Detroit ... that can add up quickly and make the contract a net plus without stretching expectations too hard.

[User Name]

It was hard not to like the Porcello extension - you get his 26-30 years, where you can easily project a year or two of improvement ... and you try to put a defensive team around him which will benefit his superficial numbers more than the squad in Detroit ... that can add up quickly and make the contract a net plus without stretching expectations too hard.

 

This man knows what he's talking about

[iortiz]

Porcello was showing a lot of improvement in 2013, before the breakout season in 2014.

 

Still isn't enough to call it trend, Bell. On the other hand, in terms of WAR, there's a trend, he is nothing but a 2.7 WAR at best in the last three years (included the last one when he posted a 3.5 ERA). That trend suggest me that he is going to be around those numbers (No. 3 type) reason why I offered a public bet (to make it interesting). No one posting a track record of 2.7 is making/will make 20 M for the next 4 Y given the DR%, reason why he needs to improve to justify this contract.

Edited May 6, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Fair enough. Historically, it's been very difficult for pitchers of Lester's age to maintain their performance for long. He could be an exception, certainly. I think Epstein said something about thinking Lester could age like Pettitte.

 

Durability + excellence through 6 Y+ is pretty rare to see in baseball specially at pitching. Lester, Shields, Papelbon, etc. are examples of those rare specimens, reason why even at early 30s, the age is not that big concern compared with those good arms who arguably are even slightly better than the names I presented but are not durable like some named by Divinity. My guess this is why the Cubs paid what they paid for Lester.

 

The problem or the big question with Porcello to justify this contract is: is he already at his prime? or his prime is about to come. If the answer is yes for the question No.1, there's no way in hell I pay 20 M for a mid-rotation guy who is going to keep his track record or his improvement is not going to be that much (~2.5 WAR). On the other hand if the answer is yes for the second one (3-4 WAR player), it makes a lot of sense regardless the strategy behind (defence, young, etc.). My guess in this case the Red Sox paid for the second one.

[SoxnCycles]

Durability + excellence through 6 Y+ is pretty rare to see in baseball specially at pitching. Lester, Shields, Papelbon, etc. are examples of those rare specimens, reason why even at early 30s, the age is not that big concern compared with those good arms who arguably are even slightly better than the names I presented but are not durable like some named by Divinity. My guess this is why the Cubs paid what they paid for Lester.

 

The problem or the big question with Porcello to justify this contract is: is he already at his prime? or his prime is about to come. If the answer is yes for the question No.1, there's no way in hell I pay 20 M for a mid-rotation guy who is going to keep his track record or his improvement is not going to be that much (~2.5 WAR). On the other hand if the answer is yes for the second one (3-4 WAR player), it makes a lot of sense regardless the strategy behind (defence, young, etc.). My guess in this case the Red Sox paid for the second one.

 

So, it's clear that you think 20/4 is a huge overpay for Porcello.

If this has been asked before, my apologies, but how much would you give Porcello for 4 years?

[iortiz]

So, it's clear that you think 20/4 is a huge overpay for Porcello.

If this has been asked before, my apologies, but how much would you give Porcello for 4 years?

 

I think that the right question should be what numbers do you want? If you want a potential arm who can provide you a ~2.5 WAR/4.3 ERA, the possibilities out there are vasty year after year without paying 20 M and committing 80 M.

 

Also, Let me put it this way, if he posts what his track record suggests this year (~2.5 WAR, 4.3 ERA) I do not see any team in a rush to throw 80 M at him. As I said, the Red Sox are pretty sure that this guy is going to improve reason why they wanted lock him out early.

[User Name]

You didn't actually answer his question though.

[SoxnCycles]

I think that the right question should be what numbers do you want? If you want a potential arm who can provide you a ~2.5 WAR/4.3 ERA, the possibilities out there are vasty year after year without paying 20 M and committing 80 M.

 

Also, Let me put it this way, if he posts what his track record suggests this year (~2.5 WAR, 4.3 ERA) I do not see any team in a rush to throw 80 M at him. As I said, the Red Sox are pretty sure that this guy is going to improve reason why they wanted lock him out early.

 

I don't want any "possibilities", I want Porcello.

How much should he cost?

[SoxnCycles]

You didn't actually answer his question though.

 

For someone who has had innumerable posts stating what Porcello isn't worth, I didn't think the question was that hard.

[iortiz]

You didn't actually answer his question though.

 

Well, It depends on the scenario I project. If the projection (which I think it will be) were his WAR tendency (2.5) and ERA career numbers (4.3), I wouldn't lock him out in the first place. In that scenario I would wait and see what the market suggests for an arm with that profile at the end of the season.

[SoxnCycles]

Well, It depends on the scenario I project. If the projection (which I think it will be) were his WAR tendency (2.5) and ERA career numbers (4.3), I wouldn't lock him out in the first place. In that scenario I would wait and see what the market suggests for an arm with that profile at the end of the season.

 

In other words, you have no idea.

 

I'm glad the Sox don't operate like that.

[Palodios]

Well, It depends on the scenario I project. If the projection (which I think it will be) were his WAR tendency (2.5) and ERA career numbers (4.3), I wouldn't lock him out in the first place. In that scenario I would wait and see what the market suggests for an arm with that profile at the end of the season.

 

You're not answering the question.

[sk7326]

But let's take improvement off the table .. just using ordinary baseball salary escalation ... how much money would you have to spend to buy four 2014-5 Rick Porcellos over the next 4 seasons? Let's take things systematically ...

 

In 2009, the median payroll was 81.6M. In 2015, it's 116.7M. You turn that into a constant growth rate, and you get a salary escalation of 6.1% (about 3-4 times the core inflation rate). So what would you pay for $X of 2015 performance from 2016-2019?

 

1.06X + 1.12X + 1.19X + 1.26X = 4.63X

 

Setting it to $80M, and you get $17.3M worth of 2015 performance. So even at $6M per WAR (which might be low for a team like Boston), averaging 2.9 WAR per year justifies the contract.

 

UPDATE: If you want one estimator of $/WAR, let's look at the Jon Lester signing. Lester's 2015 salary is 20M. His ZIPS/Steamer average projection is 3.4 WAR (and you figure Theo's front office is using some sort of team proprietary flavor of something like this). So that takes you to an implied $/WAR of $5.9M for the Cubs who are in the same business ballpark as Boston roughly (perhaps a slightly lower cost of living). So the $6M per WAR seems reasonable, possibly low.

Edited May 6, 2015 by sk7326

[iortiz]

You're not answering the question.

 

LOL!, I just did Pal. On the other hand, if you want me to tell you what is going the market offer for a guy who has a profile around 2.5 WAR and 4.3 ERA, I do not think the market were willing to pay 20 M, not even close for this profile. It will depend on the new projection (for this profile), years, players available, budget, needs, etc.

[Spudboy]

Screw projections for just long enough to answer the question.

 

It's not hard to do.

[Palodios]

LOL!, I just did Pal. On the other hand, if you want me to tell you what is going the market offer for a guy who has a profile around 2.5 WAR and 4.3 ERA, I do not think the market were willing to pay 20 M, not even close for this profile. It will depend on the new projection (for this profile), years, players available, budget, needs, etc.

 

You don't want to spent 80 million on Porcello. That's fair. Let's talk it through. How much are you willing to spend on him?

[iortiz]

Screw projections for just long enough to answer the question.

 

It's not hard to do.

 

Thing is that you just can not take your projection/Ys out of the equation. Again, if you want a guy who can provide you in a year basis something around ~2.5 WAR, out there are vasty of options every year to cover those numbers and cheaper without commit tons of money. Figure out at BBR. On the other hand if you want a guy who has attached a track record around 4-5 WAR and durable (Lester type), it will be very difficult to find out in the first place, and if you find him, you have to pay and commit big bucks and Ys.

[iortiz]

You don't want to spent 80 million on Porcello. That's fair. Let's talk it through. How much are you willing to spend on him?

 

Thing is that I would never, ever lock out a No 3-4 type since out there always are plenty of options year after year. On the other hand if Porcello were willing to sign a 1 Y contract in 2016, and if he keeps posting something around 4.3 ERA, I would pay no more than 15 M and probably less.

Edited May 6, 2015 by iortiz

[User Name]

But let's take improvement off the table .. just using ordinary baseball salary escalation ... how much money would you have to spend to buy four 2014-5 Rick Porcellos over the next 4 seasons? Let's take things systematically ...

 

In 2009, the median payroll was 81.6M. In 2015, it's 116.7M. You turn that into a constant growth rate, and you get a salary escalation of 6.1% (about 3-4 times the core inflation rate). So what would you pay for $X of 2015 performance from 2016-2019?

 

1.06X + 1.12X + 1.19X + 1.26X = 4.63X

 

Setting it to $80M, and you get $17.3M worth of 2015 performance. So even at $6M per WAR (which might be low for a team like Boston), averaging 2.9 WAR per year justifies the contract.

 

UPDATE: If you want one estimator of $/WAR, let's look at the Jon Lester signing. Lester's 2015 salary is 20M. His ZIPS/Steamer average projection is 3.4 WAR (and you figure Theo's front office is using some sort of team proprietary flavor of something like this). So that takes you to an implied $/WAR of $5.9M for the Cubs who are in the same business ballpark as Boston roughly (perhaps a slightly lower cost of living). So the $6M per WAR seems reasonable, possibly low.

 

$/win is a lot closer to 7 million than it is to 6. You are certainly lowballing.

[User Name]

Thing is that you just can not take your projection/Ys out of the equation. Again, if you want a guy who can provide you in a year basis something around ~2.5 WAR, out there are vasty of options every year to cover those numbers and cheaper without commit tons of money. Figure out at BBR. On the other hand if you want a guy who has attached a track record around 4-5 WAR and durable (Lester type), it will be very difficult to find out in the first place, and if you find him, you have to pay and commit big bucks and Ys.

 

What?

 

Dude, it's a simple question. If he was a free agent, and you were a GM, what's the max contract you would offer?

[Palodios]

Thing is that I would never, ever lock out a No 3-4 type since out there always are plenty of options year after year.

 

I disagree heavily with this. We see it every year -- the only guys available are either old, brittle or insanely expensive.

 

 

On the other hand if Porcello were willing to sign a 1 Y contract in 2016, and if he keeps posting something around 4.3 ERA, I would pay no more than 15 M and probably less.

 

Fair enough, you would offer him 1/15M. He probably wouldn't accept that, and you've lost your best pitcher on a team that desperately needs pitching.

[iortiz]

... more to my favor, As I said, I think I could find a ~2.5 WAR/4.3 ERA player cheaper and without committing big bucks/Ys.

[iortiz]

What?

 

Dude, it's a simple question. If he was a free agent, and you were a GM, what's the max contract you would offer?

 

haha I already said my offer.

[vjcsmoke]

I find it hard to believe we were willing to give Porcello 20mx4 but were not willing to give 25x4 to a Jon Lester. I'm not sure what this front office was thinking. Porcello is pretty good, but Lester was our ace.

Oh well, it's already done. Can we make a trade for a true #1 pitcher any time soon?

[Palodios]

... more to my favor, As I said, I think I could find a ~2.5 WAR/4.3 ERA player cheaper and without committing big bucks/Ys.

 

Who would you sign instead? There were some options, but most of them would see serious ERA bumps in Fenway. Here are the options from last year.

 

Shields 4/80. I still think he was a great option, but not exactly cheaper.

 

Brandon Mccarthy 4/48. (He is already hurt this year).

 

Ervin Santana 4/55. Might not be a terrible choice, but he is signed from 32-26, gives up more flyballs, and has a similar ERA.

 

Liriano 3/39. He can put up some good numbers, but extremely inconsistent. I doubt Red Sox fans would tolerate him.

 

Jason Hammel 2/18. Career 4.60 ERA in NL parks.

 

AJ Burnett 1/8. Nope.

 

Peavy 2/24. I have always been a Peavy fan, but doubt he'd come back after the trade.

 

Harang 1/6. Awesome start so far, 36 years old and career 4.20 ERA in the NL make it seem like SSS.

 

Vogelsong. 4.5 NL ERA.

[SoxnCycles]

I find it hard to believe we were willing to give Porcello 20mx4 but were not willing to give 25x4 to a Jon Lester. I'm not sure what this front office was thinking. Porcello is pretty good, but Lester was our ace.

Oh well, it's already done. Can we make a trade for a true #1 pitcher any time soon?

 

The Sox FO were willing to pay more than 20x4 for Lester.

The problem is, by the time they made this known to Lester's agent, other teams were already offering more.

 

The Sox didn't screw up by outbidding the Cubs, but they did screw up by lowballing him with their initial offer.

[iortiz]

I disagree heavily with this. We see it every year -- the only guys available are either old, brittle or insanely expensive.

 

 

 

Fair enough, you would offer him 1/15M. He probably wouldn't accept that, and you've lost your best pitcher on a team that desperately needs pitching.

 

Porcello wouldn't be even a concern to me. Also, if he keeps posting those numbers (his track record 4.3 ERA/2.5 WAR) I do not see teams in a rush to lock him out, do you?.

 

As I said, my strategy for #3-5 would be signing a bunch of low risk (cheap)/high reward pitchers rounding them with some prospects from the farm and/or arms via trades.

 

My real concern would be trying to sign a true No1 and a true No2 like Lester and Shields type, like last offseason.

Edited May 6, 2015 by iortiz

[Palodios]

Porcello wouldn't be even a concern. Also, if he keeps posting those numbers (his track record 4.3 ERA/2.5 WAR) I do not see teams in a rush to lock him out, do you?.

 

I absolutely do think that teams would want him. A healthy #3 starter is worth a lot more than you give it credit for. Look at the list of options from last year, and let me know where he stands in it.

 

 

As I said, my strategy for #3-5 would be signing a bunch of low risk (cheap)/high reward pitchers rounding them with some prospects from the farm and/or arms via trades.

 

Do you have any examples? This is exactly what the Red Sox did with Masterson. He has always been a big inning guy, he's been a high end #2 pitcher years previously, and he cost 10 million. He has pitched okay so far, but he is exactly the kind of pitcher you claim to be looking for.

Edited May 6, 2015 by Palodios