Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[Kimmi]

They still do that, mind you. They just do it through a different method. Baseball economy is exploding and the SABR movement has taken the baseball world by the balls. It's not so easy finding "undervalued assets" when everyone's looking for them. a700 is just using his typical faulty logic to justify an unjustifiable opinion.

 

The Red Sox current MO is not rocket science: Draft the best available talent, exploit the international market by any means necessary, and avoid stupid long-term contracts even if it means overpaying in the short term. Point/set/match.

 

The hilarious thing is that the two people whining the most about the Porcello contract are the same two people who would whine the most if Porcello had a good platform year and they let him walk because he got too expensive.

 

Just insufferable.

 

 

This contract is a good deal for both sides. Another benefit to signing him early, which is no small deal, is that it gives the Sox one less hole to have to fill next offseason. If Porcello had been allowed to hit FA, there is a good chance that his price would be higher than what the Sox would be willing to pay. That would leave them with at least two starting pitching spots to fill.

[Kimmi]

The funny thing is that I am certain that over 50 years, I have witnessed more elite base stealing threats on first base than is covered under that statiscal "study" that is based on data from 2003-2005. Easily 10 fold more. Is it evidence what I saw? Of course it is. Is it conclusive evidence? Of course not, and neither are these so-called studies. The effect a baserunner has on a pitcher a batter differ enormously depending on the individuals. Many batters are completely oblivious to the runners on base. Others seem to be engaged with and part of the baserunning strategy. Other batters, it bothers. I don't think a runner on first base bothered Yaz, because he often spoke about making a living using the hole in that situation. I do know that he hated players dancing on second base. He would tell them to stand still and he would drive them in. I suspect that these stories annoy you because you think I am presenting them as some sort of anectodal evidence. I am not. These stories are part of the beauty and fabric of the game to me, and this is a forum where I can tell them.

 

As far as this issue of proving statistically whether a speedy runner on first base has a positive or negative impact on a batter's performance, the real answer is sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. It depends on the individual's involved. The data has no predictive value at all. It would be like using a study that that says 60 percent of people prefer chocolate ice cream to conclude that chocolate ice cream is superior. I realize that this is a bad analaogy, because chocolate ice cream is superior. LOL! Anyway, Kimmi, we can both agree that these surveys are not perfect, and some are less perfect than others. I like the statiscal aspect of the game, and I don't discount it at all. I am not the traditionalist that you think I am. My father taught me about the statiscal folly of the bunt and the insufficiency of relying on batting average befoe Bill James hit puberty. I also have realized that some times those assumptions and statistics get thrown out the window. If you have a guy who can get 20-30 bunt base hits in a season and his success rate is very high, it is a weapon. For most players, bunting is just to be used as an element of surprise and it is otherwise a wasted AB. I like to look at statistical studies, but I also recognize shoddy work for what it is.

 

 

What you saw over your 50 years is anecdotal evidence, which is both biased and selective. That is not a knock on you, but just human nature. Believe me, I'm not trying to say that you don't know what you're talking about. I am guessing that the majority of major league managers and baseball players, whom I think know a lot more about baseball than I do, would agree 100% with you. That doesn't make it right.

 

As far as Yaz making a living using the hole in that situation, that hole exists whether Papi is on first base or Ellsbury is. The advantage to a batter with a runner on first base is real. The added advantage to a batter when that runner is disruptive is not real.

 

About the sacrifice bunt, how long did managers employ the sacrifice bunt incorrectly, thinking that it was a good offensive tactic? Some managers still use it incorrectly, including Farrell. It takes a long time for people to accept that what they have believed forever is wrong.

[a700hitter]

I'm not trying to "win" anything. The reason why I come to these forums is to debate these very topics. It's something that I enjoy doing. Yes, I feel strongly about my opinions because, unlike you, I do like to do my homework. When I make a claim, especially one that goes against the grain, you can be sure that I've researched the topic and can back up what I say. If someone posts a false claim as fact, I'm going to call them on it. As a lawyer, you should certainly be able to understand that.

Opinions are opinions. Facts are facts. It's a message board full of both. Facts can be obscured by opinions and opinions colored by emotions. In either case, the whole "calling out" thing is not my thing. People are entitled to their opinions, right or wrong. If people want to call me out for my opinion, I can't stop them, but they better come with compelling facts that address the point I was making, because I will call out the bad evidence as I do my homework as well.

[a700hitter]

What you saw over your 50 years is anecdotal evidence, which is both biased and selective. That is not a knock on you, but just human nature. Believe me, I'm not trying to say that you don't know what you're talking about. I am guessing that the majority of major league managers and baseball players, whom I think know a lot more about baseball than I do, would agree 100% with you. That doesn't make it right.

 

As far as Yaz making a living using the hole in that situation, that hole exists whether Papi is on first base or Ellsbury is. The advantage to a batter with a runner on first base is real. The added advantage to a batter when that runner is disruptive is not real.

 

About the sacrifice bunt, how long did managers employ the sacrifice bunt incorrectly, thinking that it was a good offensive tactic? Some managers still use it incorrectly, including Farrell. It takes a long time for people to accept that what they have believed forever is wrong.

There you go again. The story about Yaz was not meant to be evidence of anything. It was just a story about Yaz. Can I tell a story here without you think that I am trying to prove or disprove some larger point?

[a700hitter]

Thank you for your vote of confidence.

 

You know me well enough to know that I don't post things on a whim. Well, at least not usually. LOL

The guy is a psycho.

[Kimmi]

Opinions are opinions. Facts are facts. It's a message board full of both. Facts can be obscured by opinions and opinions colored by emotions. In either case, the whole "calling out" thing is not my thing. People are entitled to their opinions, right or wrong. If people want to call me out for my opinion, I can't stop them, but they better come with compelling facts that address the point I was making, because I will call out the bad evidence as I do my homework as well.

 

 

There's a difference between a true opinion and making a claim that you say is your opinion, but has been proven to be false. If you say that base stealing is one of the most exciting aspects of the game, that is your opinion. If you say base stealing is one of the most important aspects of an offense, that is not your opinion. That is a false statement, and it is something that I can't let fly.

 

As far as "calling out" not being your thing, please. You may not call it that, but you do it all the time. Not that there is anything wrong with that, I just think that you should have some facts to back it up.

[Kimmi]

There you go again. The story about Yaz was not meant to be evidence of anything. It was just a story about Yaz. Can I tell a story here without you think that I am trying to prove or disprove some larger point?

 

 

My bad. Carry on with your stories.

[a700hitter]

There's a difference between a true opinion and making a claim that you say is your opinion, but has been proven to be false. If you say that base stealing is one of the most exciting aspects of the game, that is your opinion. If you say base stealing is one of the most important aspects of an offense, that is not your opinion. That is a false statement, and it is something that I can't let fly.

 

As far as "calling out" not being your thing, please. You may not call it that, but you do it all the time. Not that there is anything wrong with that, I just think that you should have some facts to back it up.

I can see that you need the last word even if it is just blah blah blah. What does that first sentence mean?

[Kimmi]

The guy is a psycho.

 

 

LOL He's a good guy. He's another one that I've been posting with for about 6 years now on several different boards, along with Bellhorn and Fred.

[User Name]

Note: Everyone who doesn't buy a700's ******** is a psycho.

[Kimmi]

I can see that you need the last word even if it is just blah blah blah. What does that first sentence mean?

 

 

LOL If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with blah blah blah.

 

If you would post something that I could agree with, I wouldn't need to have the last word. ;-)

[a700hitter]

LOL He's a good guy. He's another one that I've been posting with for about 6 years now on several different boards, along with Bellhorn and Fred.

If Cycle is who I think he is, Cycle is a psycho, the 6 years on another board notwithstanding. I wish Emmz was still here. She could make a positive ID after a post or 2.

[a700hitter]

LOL If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with blah blah blah.

 

If you would post something that I could agree with, I wouldn't need to have the last word. ;-)

I think I just did.

 

Plus, I post a lot of things where we agree, but you do look for the disagreement as opposed to the agreement.

[Kimmi]

If Cycle is who I think he is, Cycle is a psycho, the 6 years on another board notwithstanding. I wish Emmz was still here. She could make a positive ID after a post or 2.

 

 

I have no way of knowing for sure, but I am pretty sure that he is not the guy that you are thinking of - the one that was posting creepy bat pictures or something?

[Kimmi]

Plus, I post a lot of things where we agree, but you do look for the disagreement as opposed to the agreement.

 

 

I believe I posted that about you a few weeks ago, that you don't really disagree with me, but that you like to argue just for the sake of arguing.

 

Anyway, as I've said before, that's why I come here. I enjoy a good debate. About baseball. Not politics. LOL

[Spudboy]

If Cycle is who I think he is, Cycle is a psycho, the 6 years on another board notwithstanding. I wish Emmz was still here. She could make a positive ID after a post or 2.

 

What happened to Emmz?

[a700hitter]

I believe I posted that about you a few weeks ago, that you don't really disagree with me, but that you like to argue just for the sake of arguing.

 

Anyway, as I've said before, that's why I come here. I enjoy a good debate. About baseball. Not politics. LOL

I guess that we are more alike than we think. That is no doubt what we find annoying about each other.

[sk7326]

I never made the assertion that the Red Sox philosophy was to seek out undervalued assets. I am noting it because others have made that assertion to place a feather in the cap of the FO. And yes, those people asserted that the 2013 acquisitions were exacty those types of acquisitions.

 

Also i think the purpose of this extension (and stuff like this) is to buy a couple of Porcello's UFA years. As UN noted, the deal is partially paying a little extra for a short haul - it is also buying a year or two of free agency leverage in exchange for not being jerks about arbitration deals.

[a700hitter]

What happened to Emmz?

Emmz was a lot of fun and knew her stuff on many subjects, not just baseball. I hope that she is well and we hear from her someday.

[seabeachfred]

That's right my friend. BTW I just arrived to NY. It's rainy and cold to me considering that in Mexico City has been 25 C these days. Ready for tomo's game.

 

Bring us luck Israel. We want to take this series and I want it very badly. The Yankees pushed us around last year. This year we have to make it our turn.

[User Name]

Also i think the purpose of this extension (and stuff like this) is to buy a couple of Porcello's UFA years. As UN noted, the deal is partially paying a little extra for a short haul - it is also buying a year or two of free agency leverage in exchange for not being jerks about arbitration deals.

 

Porcello was a UFA after this season. They are buying 4 FA years at a premium, to avoid having to give him a 100+ million deal over 6 years like Homer Bailey's.

[seabeachfred]

The guy is a psycho.

 

Ted---maybe the guy has changed and maybe from what I read he hasn't, but I knew him elsewhere and he could be a real pain in the ass when he wanted----and he never admitted when he was wrong. He used to post on an old board under Pedroiaphile and on some other one as Mark from New Hampshire. He and I once got along real well but that went south during the collapse on 2011. We took opposite views and the relationship collapsed. I don't think he posts anywhere else now but the Dean here wouldn't be surprised if he still carries that chip on his shoulder. We don't communicate anymore.

[a700hitter]

Ted---maybe the guy has changed and maybe from what I read he hasn't, but I knew him elsewhere and he could be a real pain in the ass when he wanted----and he never admitted when he was wrong. He used to post on an old board under Pedroiaphile and on some other one as Mark from New Hampshire. He and I once got along real well but that went south during the collapse on 2011. We took opposite views and the relationship collapsed. I don't think he posts anywhere else now but the Dean here wouldn't be surprised if he still carries that chip on his shoulder. We don't communicate anymore.

Fred, I will PM you instructions later tonight about putting The Dean of Talk Sox in your signature line.

[seabeachfred]

LOL He's a good guy. He's another one that I've been posting with for about 6 years now on several different boards, along with Bellhorn and Fred.

 

You're right Kimmi........Pedroiphile, also known as Mark from New Hampshire, used to communicate regularly on another board and got along well until the collapse of 2011 which I predicted and he thought was just a blip on the radar. From there our relationship went to hell and on your other board he sent me a real nasty PM. To me, the guy could NOT admit he was wrong and he made it personal. Frankly, I hope we can put that all aside and be respected colleagues again. After all, I'm the Dean and have to set an example and I can't do that being a horse's ass. The thing you and others must understand is that 700 Hitter and Iortiz are two of my closest friends on this board and I have this itch to defend them when they are attacked. I'm hoping the attacks cease and we move on to better things this season as hopefully do the Red Sox.

[Spudboy]

You're right Kimmi........Pedroiphile, also known as Mark from New Hampshire, used to communicate regularly on another board and got along well until the collapse of 2011 which I predicted and he thought was just a blip on the radar. From there our relationship went to hell and on your other board he sent me a real nasty PM. To me, the guy could NOT admit he was wrong and he made it personal. Frankly, I hope we can put that all aside and be respected colleagues again. After all, I'm the Self Proclaimed Dean and have to set an example and I can't do that being a horse's ass. The thing you and others must understand is that 700 Hitter and Iortiz are two of my closest friends on this board and I have this itch to defend them when they are attacked. I'm hoping the attacks cease and we move on to better things this season as hopefully do the Red Sox.

 

Fixed.

[SoxnCycles]

You're right Kimmi........Pedroiphile, also known as Mark from New Hampshire, used to communicate regularly on another board and got along well until the collapse of 2011 which I predicted and he thought was just a blip on the radar. From there our relationship went to hell and on your other board he sent me a real nasty PM. To me, the guy could NOT admit he was wrong and he made it personal. Frankly, I hope we can put that all aside and be respected colleagues again. After all, I'm the Dean and have to set an example and I can't do that being a horse's ass. The thing you and others must understand is that 700 Hitter and Iortiz are two of my closest friends on this board and I have this itch to defend them when they are attacked. I'm hoping the attacks cease and we move on to better things this season as hopefully do the Red Sox.

 

I'd tell you what a pompous ass you're being now, but I know it wouldn't do any good.

I'm more than happy to keep the "don't communicate" as a status quo.

Edited April 10, 2015 by SoxnCycles

[sk7326]

Porcello was a UFA after this season. They are buying 4 FA years at a premium, to avoid having to give him a 100+ million deal over 6 years like Homer Bailey's.

 

I wasn't sure - but this deal was good for both sides. Some risk reduction for Porcello - and a potential substantial discount for a #2 pitcher for the Sox.

[Spitball]

Porcello was a UFA after this season. They are buying 4 FA years at a premium, to avoid having to give him a 100+ million deal over 6 years like Homer Bailey's.

 

Right! I believe they would rather overpay for four years than sign him for six years. Time will tell, but it seems like a smart move to me. I might be singing a different tune in the future, but I believe it makes sense right now.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Porcello contract is a futures play as much as it is good business. If Porcello reverts to the guy he was 2-3 years ago, then they are paying too much for a guy who will still eat some innings. If he builds off his 2014 and either improves or stays at that level, then this deal is great. If Porcello came out and threw 210IP of 3.20ERA in 2015, then his contract would have been for the same AAV but over 7-8 yrs instead of 4

[dupree]

I was just reading on MLB trade rumors while the delay in New York was going on that Ken Rosenthal says the Phillies should revamp talks with the Red Sox on dealing Cole Hamels. He stats that the Phillies should ask for lesser prospects than Swihart and Betts and go after guys like Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson, and some others that I can't recall.

 

2 points on the statement:

 

1st.

I think at some point the Red Sox will trade for Hamels. But I don't think his opening day outing showed him well for other AL teams to drive up his price of hugh ceiling prospects. Who's to say that he won't get shelled by AL teams when he has a DH to contend with game in and game out. He had the advantage of pitching against us in a NL park and still got shelled. But I still say he will be in a Red Sox before this year is out. I know it's early in the year but if the Sox start to struggle to keep the runs lower than what the offense will handle I'd say they make a move.

 

2nd.

I think the Padres are a dark horse to obtain Cole if any other team other than the Sox were to make a move this early in the year. With their current moves to revamp the roster they could put Cole as ace 1a beside of James Shields and they would in my opinion be as good if not better to come out of the NL west and smoak the Yankees of the West Dodgers.

 

In conclusion:

I think Rosenthal is just drumming up talk because the Phillies are telling him inside info that they want to move him after they filled seats on Opening Day.