2014 Offseason Thread

[SeanJohn93]

Dodgers could potentially blow the previous offers out of the water with that TV megadeal

[jacksonianmarch]

Cespedes isn't going to fetch Porcello. Porcello put up 4WAR last year with 204.2IP on a team that is losing Scherzer. You aren't getting him for Cespedes. They would need pitching in return

[pruneface]

No one likes an awkward hugger. If Lester leaves, the post trade hug could be part of the reason. Look at Henry. It must have been like getting a hug from an over-cooked piece of linguini. It probably made Lester's skin crawl.

He hugged him, he didn't f%^& him. If that is a reason, then space lizards also have a part to play.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Cespedes isn't going to fetch Porcello. Porcello put up 4WAR last year with 204.2IP on a team that is losing Scherzer. You aren't getting him for Cespedes. They would need pitching in return

 

Would have to include Ranaudo or Workman, but that's no problem

[dupree]

The f***ing Dodgers are at it again. Lester will get 160+ or maybe a 7th year.

I figured the Yankees would get involved but the f***ing Yankees of the west come in at the last minute to trump everybody. Only hope we have is just that Lester wants to be here.

[pruneface]

The f***ing Dodgers are at it again. Lester will get 160+ or maybe a 7th year.

I figured the Yankees would get involved but the f***ing Yankees of the west come in at the last minute to trump everybody. Only hope we have is just that Lester wants to be here.

According to baseballmusings, "Beyond the Boxscore publishes an article on aging by position. It provides another piece of evidence that players peak at seasonal at 27. There are still players and pundits that like to think players peak at 30, but it’s simply not true.

 

Jon looks like a four WAR player to me next season, and given he is in the decline phase, so over six years I’d expect him to post 19 WAR (10% decline each year). Valuing one WAR at $7 million brings us to $133 million, right between the Red Sox and the Cubs. I would not be at all surprised if everyone else let the Cubs take him at $138 million."

[dupree]

With all that I still say Lester with get close or exceed the 150 million mark. I seen a report on here that the red sox had offered him a 145 number and I hope that is the case.

 

But if they do lose out on Lester I hope they go all in on a trade for a legit #1 like chris sale and sign James Sheilds and then a trade for another 2a or 3 pitcher like Jeff Samardzija.

 

A rotation of Sale, Sheilds, Samardzija, Bucholtz, & Kelly wouldn't look too bad.

 

Given it will take a ton of top tier prospects to land Sale, but I'd rather have a young cost controlled Chris Sale in Boston than an aging Jon Lester anyways. But whose to say if Sale will be available. The ChiSox may think they can make a run this year and without Sale they don't have a rotation for s***.

 

This is Boston tho. They have addressed the hitting issue and they will address the pitching as well. This year's Winter Meeting will be interesting from the opening gate. And I plan on tivoing every minute of it.

[a700hitter]

He hugged him, he didn't f%^& him. If that is a reason, then space lizards also have a part to play.

 

He is a big sci-fi guy, do who knows.

[Palodios]

Cespedes isn't going to fetch Porcello. Porcello put up 4WAR last year with 204.2IP on a team that is losing Scherzer. You aren't getting him for Cespedes. They would need pitching in return

 

I say this time and time again, but why on earth does everyone underrate an outfielder with 25 HR power, and a glove that gets nominated for both fielding bible and gold glove awards? Porcello has a career 4.30 ERA, is a low strikeout contact pitcher who has only hit 200 IP once. The Red Sox may need to throw in a prospect to make up for the potential end of year qualifying offer, but besides that, this is a mostly fair deal.

 

Cespedes is Ellsbury all over again... Talksox didn't think he was worth an ace pitcher for a trade, but then he gets a 150 million dollar contract.

[User Name]

In today's market economy, Cespedes is definitely worth Porcello. What the Tigers need, (and Jacko's usual hijinks) are a whole other issue.

[Palodios]

When was the last time we saw so many big hitters in on the same player? Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, Giants all in. For any other player, I wouldn't want anything to do with that kind of bidding war.

[User Name]

If i was the Sox, i'd quickly try to get Shields for 4 years and then went for one of the guys on the Nats/Reds. On the Reds, however, something i read that makes sense is that they may not actually be sellers considering the AS game is in Cinci this year and how they may actually have a chance to make the playoffs if the team stays healthy.

 

I would avoid the Padres' starter (they both have horrible home/away splits). But they may have a suitable trading partner in Seattle again with their acquisition of JA Happ.

[a700hitter]

When was the last time we saw so many big hitters in on the same player? Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, Giants all in. For any other player, I wouldn't want anything to do with that kind of bidding war.

Are you readying your excuses for the FO?

[BSN07]

When was the last time we saw so many big hitters in on the same player? Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, Giants all in. For any other player, I wouldn't want anything to do with that kind of bidding war.

 

Nothing recent comes to mind. His market has blown up for sure if the rumors are all true. I think they may need to bow out and start trying to make other moves to rebuild the rotation. I love Lester and appreciate everything he's done in a Red Sox uniform but everything has a line. It's going past the "too risky for me" line now. It's at the point where it is unlikely he will be worth the deal he gets. All SP go down hill at some point and the back end of that deal no matter where he signs is gonna be a total crap shoot. Just look at NY fans and how happy they were getting CC back and look how bummed they are now. If the Sox had a more stable situation in the rotation I think a lot more around here would be backing off Lester with these kind of offers. But the rotation is bunch of ? and we are kinda desperate and may be talking ourselves into thinking signing Lester at all costs is a good idea. Just like the Yanks did when they brought back CC and most of us laughed to ourselves knowing how bad an idea it was.

 

Maybe this is the time to be smart like St. Louis and let the star walk. It was never gonna be an end of the World situation if Lester signed elsewhere. They just need to go out and get creative with some trades and other FA signings, which I think has plenty of options.

[Palodios]

Are you readying your excuses for the FO?

 

There will be no excuses for not re-signing Lester. They had their chance last offseason, and they had their chance two weeks ago before the Dodgers and Yankees got involved.

[Spudboy]

I say this time and time again, but why on earth does everyone underrate an outfielder with 25 HR power, and a glove that gets nominated for both fielding bible and gold glove awards? Porcello has a career 4.30 ERA, is a low strikeout contact pitcher who has only hit 200 IP once. The Red Sox may need to throw in a prospect to make up for the potential end of year qualifying offer, but besides that, this is a mostly fair deal.

 

Cespedes is Ellsbury all over again... Talksox didn't think he was worth an ace pitcher for a trade, but then he gets a 150 million dollar contract.

 

And why do most fans and many in the media say his defense blows goats? Where there is smoke, there is usually fire.

 

Maybe his glowing evaluations have more to do with a few highlight reel catches and some bombs in the HR contest. I can only speculate that the folks who have voted for him just have not seen him play enough to see his flaws.

 

To me it is very telling that a truly talented ( and possibly declining ) defensive outfielder that has a decent bat gets only 11 m/yr and soon Cespedes will demand 5-6/15-20 just because he can hit 20 HR while playing average defense at best and is not an on-base threat.

 

I do love Cespedes' power even if it's only 20-25/yr. That is a sign of the times because it used to be the true power hitters did more than that.

 

I won't miss Cespedes in Left. Even if Hanley is no better. At least Hanley can hit.

[User Name]

There will be no excuses for not re-signing Lester. They had their chance last offseason, and they had their chance two weeks ago before the Dodgers and Yankees got involved.

 

No one should particularly care if they don't re-sign Lester unless they fail to adequately fill out the rotation. Well, unless you are dumb, or a whiner.

 

Also, this is a general point Pal, not referring to you.

[Palodios]

And why do most fans and many in the media say his defense blows goats?

 

Come on now, are you saying that fans/media have a more valid opinion than the people who vote for these awards? MLB Managers and coaches are the ones who vote for the gold glove, and statistical analysis is how the Fielding Bible award is awarded. I prefer the combination of real managers and coaches AND statisticians over your eye test.

[User Name]

And why do most fans and many in the media say his defense blows goats? Where there is smoke, there is usually fire.

 

Maybe his glowing evaluations have more to do with a few highlight reel catches and some bombs in the HR contest. I can only speculate that the folks who have voted for him just have not seen him play enough to see his flaws.

 

To me it is very telling that a truly talented ( and possibly declining ) defensive outfielder that has a decent bat gets only 11 m/yr and soon Cespedes will demand 5-6/15-20 just because he can hit 20 HR while playing average defense at best and is not an on-base threat.

 

I do love Cespedes' power even if it's only 20-25/yr. That is a sign of the times because it used to be the true power hitters did more than that.

 

I won't miss Cespedes in Left. Even if Hanley is no better. At least Hanley can hit.

 

The general consensus from scouts is that Cespedes rates as a 60 and 65 in defense and arm respectively in the 20/80 scale. That's damn good. I usually believe scouts and stats more than fans and media, but that's just me.

[Bellhorn04]

No one should particularly care if they don't re-sign Lester unless they fail to adequately fill out the rotation.

 

Or unless the only way they can adequately fill out the rotation is by giving up a pile of prospects, perhaps.

[Palodios]

No one should particularly care if they don't re-sign Lester unless they fail to adequately fill out the rotation. Well, unless you are dumb, or a whiner.

 

Also, this is a general point Pal, not referring to you.

 

There are plenty of options available, but most of them will do significant damage to the farm system, and most of them will go to free agency next year looking for a contract roughly around what Lester receives. Even if they go for Shields, the Red Sox are looking like they will go into the 2015 draft without any international signings at all, and no draft picks between the 2nd and 4th rounds.

[BSN07]

No one should particularly care if they don't re-sign Lester unless they fail to adequately fill out the rotation. Well, unless you are dumb, or a whiner.

 

Also, this is a general point Pal, not referring to you.

 

Exactly. If they fail to address the SP at all, everyone is free to bitch away.

[User Name]

Or unless the only way they can adequately fill out the rotation is by giving up a pile of prospects, perhaps.

 

That depends on the prospects and the return, mind you.

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly. If they fail to address the SP at all, everyone is free to bitch away.

 

I'm sure they'll address it. However, will they be able to put themselves in as good a position as they would have been if they had signed Lester in the spring for say 6 years/$135 million?

[User Name]

I'm sure they'll address it. However, will they be able to put themselves in as good a position as they would have been if they had signed Lester in the spring for say 6 years/$135 million?

 

That is, assuming Lester would have taken it. Thing is, a lot of people here are taking speculation as fact. Lester may have been planning to hit the open market and look for top dollar all along. We don't know, and shouldn't pretend we do. The idea that the Sox had a surefire shot at retaining Lester in the spring or earlier in the offseason is, at best, conjecture. It is Lester's choice, after all.

[a700hitter]

I will be more annoyed about the whiny excuses that will come if they don't adequately address the SP situation.

[Bellhorn04]

That is, assuming Lester would have taken it. Thing is, a lot of people here are taking speculation as fact. Lester may have been planning to hit the open market and look for top dollar all along. We don't know, and shouldn't pretend we do. The idea that the Sox had a surefire shot at retaining Lester in the spring or earlier in the offseason is, at best, conjecture. It is Lester's choice, after all.

 

You're right about all that. If Lester does go elsewhere, I'm sure we'll get 'the other side of the story' from the Sox FO.

[SeanJohn93]

Do the winter meetings start Sunday? Also, how do you put a picture for your avatar like most of you guys have?

[BSN07]

That is, assuming Lester would have taken it. Thing is, a lot of people here are taking speculation as fact. Lester may have been planning to hit the open market and look for top dollar all along. We don't know, and shouldn't pretend we do. The idea that the Sox had a surefire shot at retaining Lester in the spring or earlier in the offseason is, at best, conjecture. It is Lester's choice, after all.

 

Lester bet on himself. He got an offer that reflected his inconsistency of being a true Ace in the seasons leading up to his walk year and passed. He hit the lotto and everyone has forgotten 2011-2012 and will likely double the original offer he got. Good for him. Doesn't mean it's a good baseball move imo.

[BSN07]

Do the winter meetings start Sunday? Also, how do you put a picture for your avatar like most of you guys have?

 

go into your profile setting and select an avatar I believe. I don't change mine often