2014 Offseason Thread

[seabeachfred]

Latos used to be good but he isn't anymore.

 

He was hurt last year and lost 2 mph off his fastball (92.7 to 90.6 avg velo). His K rate dropped from 7.99 to 6.51 per 9. He's a guy who would get eaten alive in the AL East. His stuff doesn't translate well. Count me out on Latos

 

Every time I saw Latos this season on TV he was getting routed by the fifth or sixth inning. If this is the guy our fuzzy minded front office is thinking as an ace or co-ace they can figure on another miserable season. Nyet on Latos. For God's sake let's hope the boys in the ivory tower get this right this off season and go after quality instead of mediocre has-beens.

[sk7326]

Every time I saw Latos this season on TV he was getting routed by the fifth or sixth inning. If this is the guy our fuzzy minded front office is thinking as an ace or co-ace they can figure on another miserable season. Nyet on Latos. For God's sake let's hope the boys in the ivory tower get this right this off season and go after quality instead of mediocre has-beens.

 

Very good in 2013, hurt but still decent in 2014. Health is the big question - if a starter can't get 180+ innings, I don't want him.

[Spudboy]

Every time I saw Latos this season on TV he was getting routed by the fifth or sixth inning. If this is the guy our fuzzy minded front office is thinking as an ace or co-ace they can figure on another miserable season. Nyet on Latos. For God's sake let's hope the boys in the ivory tower get this right this off season and go after quality instead of mediocre has-beens.

 

But Fred they have a record of getting mid-tier pitchers.

 

I said it long ago, the Sox will get a number one type ( probably not a true ace ) and a guy from the Masterson group of rotation fillers. And I won't be surprised if they go after some Dempster type and then just call it a day.

 

I hope to death that I am completely wrong. I'd like to see a big splash pitching acquisition. Or better yet, two of them. But the signals Ben has been sending out ( "there is more than one way to build a rotation" ) make me suspect that the Sox will go the cheaper route and land a bunch of shlock.

[jd98]

You do realize that the Red Sox have about $70mm to spend, correct? If they spend $20 on Panda, they can still give Lester 6/150 ($25mm AAV), 4/80 ($20mm AAV) on Shields, $11mm on Koji, and still have $4mm left over. And that's just pushing them to the Lux Tax threshhold, which they have said is not a hard cap.

 

I'm not saying that this is the way they will spend, I'm just showing you that spending on a 3B doesn't keep them from spending huge on two FA SP.

 

Personally I think they'll sign Lester and trade for Cueto, perhaps even giving up Owens or Eduardo Rodriguez, though that would make me sick.

 

20+25+20+11=76 not 66, so they can't do that without going over the luxury tax limit, which I doubt they will do.

However, after they trade Cespedes or somebody, then they could do it.

Edited October 30, 2014 by jd98

[jacksonianmarch]

If they cried about paying pitchers beyond the age of thirty, why would they then commit $230 to them?

[Dojji]

Very good in 2013, hurt but still decent in 2014. Health is the big question - if a starter can't get 180+ innings, I don't want him.

 

Yeah, that's one of the lessons this season should have taught us -- a durable rotation is more important than a top quality rotation.

[Dojji]

But Fred they have a record of getting mid-tier pitchers.

 

I said it long ago, the Sox will get a number one type ( probably not a true ace ) and a guy from the Masterson group of rotation fillers. And I won't be surprised if they go after some Dempster type and then just call it a day.

 

I hope to death that I am completely wrong. I'd like to see a big splash pitching acquisition. Or better yet, two of them. But the signals Ben has been sending out ( "there is more than one way to build a rotation" ) make me suspect that the Sox will go the cheaper route and land a bunch of shlock.

 

Frankly it doesn't matter. This team isn't going to go anywhere until it can internally develop a starting pitcher. It is 8 years later and Jon Lester is STILL the last starting pitching prospect Boston successfully developed into a consistent top pitcher.

 

It doesn't matter what you do in free agency if ALL of your young starting prospects for the last 8 years bomb out, turn into nothing, get hurt, go to the bullpen or are simply too undependable to count on. You just don't get enough opportunities to get a fair deal in FA to turn something like that around without at least a bit of internal organic growth, and we've had none for nearly a whole decade.

 

For that matter, who was the last one before Lester? I don't even freaking know. D:

 

Who were the two best performers for each team in the World Series. Madison Bumgarner and Yordano Ventura respectively, easily. Home grown ace types. you can't buy that level of talent in free agency once much less twice, if you can't homegrow it you're at a major disadvantage.

 

 

Until this team figures out what it's been doing wrong with developing its starting pitching (have you noticed that even the guys we trade away aren't getting it done? I'm sure other teams have) this team will not see the playoffs again no matter how much it spends.

Edited October 30, 2014 by Dojji

[SoxFanForsyth]

If they cried about paying pitchers beyond the age of thirty, why would they then commit $230 to them?

 

I'm not saying they will. I'm showing Fred the financial flexibility they have

[a700hitter]

Frankly it doesn't matter. This team isn't going to go anywhere until it can internally develop a starting pitcher. It is 8 years later and Jon Lester is STILL the last starting pitching prospect Boston successfully developed into a consistent top pitcher.

 

It doesn't matter what you do in free agency if ALL of your young starting prospects for the last 8 years bomb out, turn into nothing, get hurt, go to the bullpen or are simply too undependable to count on. You just don't get enough opportunities to get a fair deal in FA to turn something like that around without at least a bit of internal organic growth, and we've had none for nearly a whole decade.

 

For that matter, who was the last one before Lester? I don't even freaking know. D:

 

Who were the two best performers for each team in the World Series. Madison Bumgarner and Yordano Ventura respectively, easily. Home grown ace types. you can't buy that level of talent in free agency once much less twice, if you can't homegrow it you're at a major disadvantage.

 

 

Until this team figures out what it's been doing wrong with developing its starting pitching (have you noticed that even the guys we trade away aren't getting it done? I'm sure other teams have) this team will not see the playoffs again no matter how much it spends.

I can't disagree with this indictment of the organization. After watching Bradley and Middlebrooks bomb and XB underwhelm us, I think the problem is not limited to pitching. They need to take a good hard look at their scouting and talent development operations. Edited October 30, 2014 by a700hitter

[SoxFanForsyth]

Frankly it doesn't matter. This team isn't going to go anywhere until it can internally develop a starting pitcher. It is 8 years later and Jon Lester is STILL the last starting pitching prospect Boston successfully developed into a consistent top pitcher.

 

It doesn't matter what you do in free agency if ALL of your young starting prospects for the last 8 years bomb out, turn into nothing, get hurt, go to the bullpen or are simply too undependable to count on. You just don't get enough opportunities to get a fair deal in FA to turn something like that around without at least a bit of internal organic growth, and we've had none for nearly a whole decade.

 

For that matter, who was the last one before Lester? I don't even freaking know. D:

 

Who were the two best performers for each team in the World Series. Madison Bumgarner and Yordano Ventura respectively, easily. Home grown ace types. you can't buy that level of talent in free agency once much less twice, if you can't homegrow it you're at a major disadvantage.

 

 

Until this team figures out what it's been doing wrong with developing its starting pitching (have you noticed that even the guys we trade away aren't getting it done? I'm sure other teams have) this team will not see the playoffs again no matter how much it spends.

 

It's almost as if the Red Sox didn't win the World Series last year

[a700hitter]

It's almost as if the Red Sox didn't win the World Series last year

Memo to the Red Sox front office. Everyone can take vacation for the next 5 years since we won the CHampionship last year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Memo to the Red Sox front office. Everyone can take vacation for the next 5 years since we won the CHampionship last year.

 

When people start making arguments by putting words into your mouth and taking said points to the extreme, it just shows that they have no argument and have resigned to petty name calling techniques.

 

Obviously the Red Sox have work to do. But if the Sox signed Lester, McCarthy, Koji (which they just did, 2/$18mm), and Sandoval, they'll have an absolute WS contender. And that doesn't even address any trade potentials.

 

Lineup of Betts Pedroia Ortiz Cespedes Sandoval Napoli Castillo Bogaerts Vazquez.

Bench of Holt, Nava, Craig, Backup C

Rotation of Lester McCarthy Buchholz Kelley Webster

Bullpen of Koji, Tazawa, Mujica, RDLR, Workman, Layne, Ed Escobar (.200/.244/.230 vs LHH last year)

 

That is a team that can go deep into the post season. And that doesn't even take into consideration trading for a guy like Cueto rather than signing McCarthy.

 

The Red Sox don't have to have a homegrown ace to win the world series. They didn't have a homegrown ace in 2004. Their ace in 2007 was Beckett (not home grown). The Yankees won in 09 with Sabathia (not homegrown).

 

That argument is a fallacy.

[a700hitter]

When people start making arguments by putting words into your mouth and taking said points to the extreme, it just shows that they have no argument and have resigned to petty name calling techniques.

 

Obviously the Red Sox have work to do. But if the Sox signed Lester, McCarthy, Koji (which they just did, 2/$18mm), and Sandoval, they'll have an absolute WS contender. And that doesn't even address any trade potentials.

 

Lineup of Betts Pedroia Ortiz Cespedes Sandoval Napoli Castillo Bogaerts Vazquez.

Bench of Holt, Nava, Craig, Backup C

Rotation of Lester McCarthy Buchholz Kelley Webster

Bullpen of Koji, Tazawa, Mujica, RDLR, Workman, Layne, Ed Escobar (.200/.244/.230 vs LHH last year)

 

That is a team that can go deep into the post season. And that doesn't even take into consideration trading for a guy like Cueto rather than signing McCarthy.

 

The Red Sox don't have to have a homegrown ace to win the world series. They didn't have a homegrown ace in 2004. Their ace in 2007 was Beckett (not home grown). The Yankees won in 09 with Sabathia (not homegrown).

 

That argument is a fallacy.

yes, I replied your facetious statement with sarcasm. I didn't think we were arguing about an issue. We are a last place team and the whole organization except for David Ortiz s*** all over themselves. They have a lot of work to do.

[SoxFanForsyth]

yes, I replied your facetious statement with sarcasm. I didn't think we were arguing about an issue. We are a last place team and the whole organization except for David Ortiz s*** all over themselves. They have a lot of work to do.

 

We just disagree about how close the Red Sox actually are.

[seabeachfred]

But Fred they have a record of getting mid-tier pitchers.

 

I said it long ago, the Sox will get a number one type ( probably not a true ace ) and a guy from the Masterson group of rotation fillers. And I won't be surprised if they go after some Dempster type and then just call it a day.

 

I hope to death that I am completely wrong. I'd like to see a big splash pitching acquisition. Or better yet, two of them. But the signals Ben has been sending out ( "there is more than one way to build a rotation" ) make me suspect that the Sox will go the cheaper route and land a bunch of shlock.

 

You usually get what you pay for and if the Red Sox think they can win on the cheap they are once again whistling past the graveyard. They went this rout in 2009 and 2010 and it got us nowhere with a bunch of lame excuses along with them. Remember some of the losers we signed and how crappy they turned out, pitchers and position players? Remember Melancon, Padilla, Stewart, Liullibridge, Repko, Valencia, Beato, Ohlendorf, Thomas, Silva, Cameron, Wheeler, Hattovoy, Gathright, Penny, Bonser and Martinez?????? Hell, even the over the hill Smoltz. I remember very very well. I really think the press, media, fans and everyone else must keep Henry's feet to the fire and make it clear that RSN is not going to stand for another season like two of the last three.

[seabeachfred]

When people start making arguments by putting words into your mouth and taking said points to the extreme, it just shows that they have no argument and have resigned to petty name calling techniques.

 

Obviously the Red Sox have work to do. But if the Sox signed Lester, McCarthy, Koji (which they just did, 2/$18mm), and Sandoval, they'll have an absolute WS contender. And that doesn't even address any trade potentials.

 

Lineup of Betts Pedroia Ortiz Cespedes Sandoval Napoli Castillo Bogaerts Vazquez.

Bench of Holt, Nava, Craig, Backup C

Rotation of Lester McCarthy Buchholz Kelley Webster

Bullpen of Koji, Tazawa, Mujica, RDLR, Workman, Layne, Ed Escobar (.200/.244/.230 vs LHH last year)

 

That is a team that can go deep into the post season. And that doesn't even take into consideration trading for a guy like Cueto rather than signing McCarthy.

 

The Red Sox don't have to have a homegrown ace to win the world series. They didn't have a homegrown ace in 2004. Their ace in 2007 was Beckett (not home grown). The Yankees won in 09 with Sabathia (not homegrown).

 

That argument is a fallacy.

 

No SFF, you don't need a homegrown ace to win the World Series. BUT YOU SURE AS HELL NEED AN ACE TO WIN ONE. 2004--Curt Schilling, 2007--Josh Beckett, 2013--John Lester. Case closed!!!!!

[Dojji]

If you can't get top homegrown players, then you're stuck with high risk gambles in FA, and it's hard to stockpile enough depth to go on a playoff run that way.

 

In that environment going after them for bad FA signings is like treating flu victims by giving them a mask. FA need to be a supplement to a strong farm system. It CANNOT be a primary source of talent, if FA is your primary talent source you have bigger problems than whether the FA themselves are good or bad deals.

 

Besides, the more you homegrow your talent the more you can devote massive resources to key positions and points of need. If you have FA at every position, affording that one more guy to put you over the top is far harder. you can't build a whole team that way, too much has to go right for that to be a reasonable possibility, even for a huge market team.

Edited October 31, 2014 by Dojji

[a700hitter]

We just disagree about how close the Red Sox actually are.

I don't think they are very far from being competitive. That doesn't preclude me from also agreeing with Doji's criticism of the scouting and player development and I think they need to bring in new blood in those areas. Despite that, I think the team can be rebuilt to be competitive in 2015 with trades and acquisitions, but I am not very confident that they will do what needs to be done. Edited October 31, 2014 by a700hitter

[Dojji]

Think of it like nutrition. FA's are your treat foods -- some nutritional value, but a lot of delicious carbs and fats and sodium and cholesterol. Life is a boring place without them, and in moderation they're very beneficial, but the more they dominate your diet, your health suffers accordingly.

 

Player development, is "proper" nutrition. Vitamins, protein, nutrients. What the body needs. Yeah you can get a little of that sometimes in junkfood, and healthy food is always harder to process and takes more work to prepare. It's always easier to make a supper out of a bag of chips, but if you're doing that 6 days a week you're not doing yourself any favors.

 

This team needs to take it on the chin, deal with some bad seasons, and do what it takes to get its house in order and reestablish its talent pipeline. If they don't, a whole lot of us are going to have problems with heart disease.

 

Sorry, I'm tired and exhausted and I'm sure that sounds a little strange but I don't care. Clicking post now

[SoxFanForsyth]

If you can't get top homegrown players, then you're stuck with high risk gambles in FA, and it's hard to stockpile enough depth to go on a playoff run that way.

 

In that environment going after them for bad FA signings is like treating flu victims by giving them a mask. FA need to be a supplement to a strong farm system. It CANNOT be a primary source of talent, if FA is your primary talent source you have bigger problems than whether the FA themselves are good or bad deals.

 

Besides, the more you homegrow your talent the more you can devote massive resources to key positions and points of need. If you have FA at every position, affording that one more guy to put you over the top is far harder. you can't build a whole team that way, too much has to go right for that to be a reasonable possibility, even for a huge market team.

 

So the Red Sox have Betts, Bogaerts, & Vazquez all starting for their offense. They have Nava and Holt on the bench. All making league min.

 

They have Kelly and likely Webster as 2 of the 5 SP. Buchholz, who makes pennies, is another SP.

 

They have tons of young cheap talent. I have no idea what you're talking about.

[SoxFanForsyth]

No SFF, you don't need a homegrown ace to win the World Series. BUT YOU SURE AS HELL NEED AN ACE TO WIN ONE. 2004--Curt Schilling, 2007--Josh Beckett, 2013--John Lester. Case closed!!!!!

 

agree - and they will land one this offseason

[Dojji]

So the Red Sox have Betts, Bogaerts, & Vazquez all starting for their offense. They have Nava and Holt on the bench. All making league min.

 

They have Kelly and likely Webster as 2 of the 5 SP. Buchholz, who makes pennies, is another SP.

 

They have tons of young cheap talent. I have no idea what you're talking about.

 

No, they have cheap young depth. Most of that talent is either depth level, or depth level so far. Buchholz me no Buchholzes. All of those guys are either too inconsistent to count on year in year out, or haven't really shown us what they can do yet. Either way, contending with a core built around those guys is going to take us a few years which is NOT the right time to be buyers, no matter how desperate Mr. Henry is to try to keep the sellout streak alive..

[a700hitter]

So the Red Sox have Betts, Bogaerts, & Vazquez all starting for their offense. They have Nava and Holt on the bench. All making league min.

 

They have Kelly and likely Webster as 2 of the 5 SP. Buchholz, who makes pennies, is another SP.

 

They have tons of young cheap talent. I have no idea what you're talking about.

All those guys are cheap, and they are all either not very good or they stink. I hold out a lot of hope for Betts.

[a700hitter]

Think of it like nutrition. FA's are your treat foods -- some nutritional value, but a lot of delicious carbs and fats and sodium and cholesterol. Life is a boring place without them, and in moderation they're very beneficial, but the more they dominate your diet, your health suffers accordingly.

 

Player development, is "proper" nutrition. Vitamins, protein, nutrients. What the body needs. Yeah you can get a little of that sometimes in junkfood, and healthy food is always harder to process and takes more work to prepare. It's always easier to make a supper out of a bag of chips, but if you're doing that 6 days a week you're not doing yourself any favors.

 

This team needs to take it on the chin, deal with some bad seasons, and do what it takes to get its house in order and reestablish its talent pipeline. If they don't, a whole lot of us are going to have problems with heart disease.

 

Sorry, I'm tired and exhausted and I'm sure that sounds a little strange but I don't care. Clicking post now

 

I like your analogy to nutrition, but I don't think that we have to stink while getting the player development and scouting operations healthy. I think they need to bite the bullet and clear out the people in those operations.

[SoxFanForsyth]

All those guys are cheap, and they are all either not very good or they stink. I hold out a lot of hope for Betts.

 

I would disagree.

 

Bogaerts had a down year overall but he absolutely crushed it in the first two months and in September, so he's shown the ability to be an impact bat. His struggles in the MLB in 2014 should translate to a very good second season, as he was able to make the adjustments he needed to make toward the end of the season.

 

Betts, we agree on. He posted a 2.1 bWAR/1.8 fWAR in about 1/3 of a season. He basically played like a 6 win player last year (insane).

 

Vazquez isn't going to be an all star, at least not yet, but he did throw out 52% of the runners (which is insane), and put up a .308 OBP. Nobody needs him to be an all star caliber hitter. If he can hit you .250/.320/.350 (he hit .240/.308 last year with a .283 BABIP, so a bump to .250/.320 is very reasonable), and provide the defense he provides, he's an excellent player (last year he posted a 1.1 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR over 55 games. That would translate to around a 3.0 bWAR and a 2.0 fWAR over 150).

 

Buch and Kelley - Nobody is asking them to be aces. They can absolutely provide serviceable innings at an extremely low cost. This is what allows you to go out and spend $40mm on two top-of-the-rotation pitchers.

 

Webster is a crap shoot. He played well in September, but who knows with him. The #5 slot could be a constant rotation between rookies next year (Webster, Johnson, Owens, Rodriguez). Either way, you're paying them league min and getting league average, maybe a tick below league average production.

 

The point is, you've filled out your roster with a lot of extremely cheap talent that has very high upside (see Buch 2013, Kelley 2013, Betts 2014, Bogearts upside is immense). And that is how you are able to afford guys like Lester and Sandoval on the FA market, and it doesn't cripple your team financially.

 

This team has $42mm locked up for 2016. $42mm. That's it. They have done an excellent job in keeping deals short term so that, if a deal doesn't pan out, it's not 8 years of smothering dollars. Now, they'll have to get away from that plan with Pablo and Lester (unless they go Headley on a 2-3 year deal), but that's just 1-2 players.

[Dojji]

Kinda hoping Rubby starts to come into his own. He's shown flashes.

[a700hitter]

Bogearts upside is immense

This is a bit of an overstatement.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is a bit of an overstatement.

 

Not really. A 20-30 HR bat at SS? Not exactly an overstatement. Scouts have comped him to Manny, given his absurd pop to the opposite field (don't believe me? Go read the BA Prospect Chat with Alex Speier).

[a700hitter]

Not really. A 20-30 HR bat at SS? Not exactly an overstatement. Scouts have comped him to Manny, given his absurd pop to the opposite field (don't believe me? Go read the BA Prospect Chat with Alex Speier).

Manny? Which Manny?

[Dojji]

Which Manny do you think?

 

Bogaerts' upside is comparable to Nomar Gacriaparra's. He is not Nomar, but the upside is Nomaresque.

 

It's worth being patient with Xander. Unfortunately, one of the reasons we're so bad at developing players, is because Henry is anxious to appeal to the kind of player who doesn't want to watch young players struggle to learn the game, so we don't always stick with them as long as we should.

Edited October 31, 2014 by Dojji