2014 Offseason Thread

[Station 13]

I think Lester will be in Chicago. That team is prepared for the next step, and Theo loves former players here.

[seabeachfred]

I think Lester will be in Chicago. That team is prepared for the next step, and Theo loves former players here.

 

You guys are whistling past the graveyard. Unless the Cubs come up with the big big buck, and I mean big big bucks, Lester will be in yankee stadium for the next five or six years. You may not like to hear it, you may not like it but that is where he will end up. I'd love to be off on this but I know the Yankees have now gone two straight seasons out of the playoffs and they will start spending money like there is no tomorrow. Salary limits mean nothing to them, only to Prune Face and his tightwad ways. And to think, we could have signed Lester to an nice extension right after the WS last year. That failure is going to reverberate in Red Sox nightmares for the next few years unless we can come up with top notch pitchers---AND THAT WILL COST EITHER A LOT OF MONEY OR A LOT OF PROSPECTS, MAYBE BOTH.

[Spudboy]

I think that the Bronx will be Lester's new home if the Sox FO does not anti-up the big bucks and frankly I'll have nothing bad to say about Lester if that is what happens.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So am I the only one who thinks the Yankees will grab Lester?

 

I honestly don't see it. Lester is too much of a family man. NYC is not a family friendly environment. I think Lester would rather go somewhere that he can raise his family and is comfortable and take less money, but that's just my take on what he's been saying to the media.

 

Who knows. I thought Ells would go to the Yanks ever since he had his 30/30 season and I saw he and Granderson hit FA at the same time. But I don't think Lester does.

 

I still think Lester and Shields sign with the Sox.

[d-money]

Can anyone see suckholz turning it around? 5.34 e.r.a this season.One of the worse starting pitchers! I dont like the guy at all.

[Elktonnick]

Can anyone see suckholz turning it around? 5.34 e.r.a this season.One of the worse starting pitchers! I dont like the guy at all.

 

You mean Dr Jeckel or Mr Hyde. It all depends on how he feels on a given day. Buchholtz is the most neurotic picture I've ever seen. Relying on him to be your ace, is like relying on Barney Fife to be sheriff. The AL East isn't Mayberry.

[a700hitter]

I honestly don't see it. Lester is too much of a family man. NYC is not a family friendly environment. I think Lester would rather go somewhere that he can raise his family and is comfortable and take less money, but that's just my take on what he's been saying to the media.

 

Who knows. I thought Ells would go to the Yanks ever since he had his 30/30 season and I saw he and Granderson hit FA at the same time. But I don't think Lester does.

 

I still think Lester and Shields sign with the Sox.

There are plenty of upscale suburban communities within reasonable driving distance of Yankee Stadium.

[a700hitter]

Can anyone see suckholz turning it around? 5.34 e.r.a this season.One of the worse starting pitchers! I dont like the guy at all.

I was hoping that Buchholz would have a healthy succesful season in 2014 and that the FO would capitalize on his renewed value and traded him. He is too inconsistent and he periods of good performance are too infrequent. After this season, he has little trade value. They should pencil him in as a 4th or 5th starter and hope they get lucky with him in 2015.

[d-money]

Pitching is the least of the yankees problems.They have a very old lineup.The sox better just get the pitching in the offseason.

[Palodios]

The Red Sox are going to pay up for Lester. Their starting pitching prospects took a nosedive this season, and it seems very clear how strong a need starting pitching is. The Yankees and Cubs will both be hard in on Lester, with both giving offers as high as 180-200, but I would imagine 140-160 would still be enough for the Red Sox to get him back here, if it includes an ironclad no-trade clause.

 

It is a s*** ton of money, and he'll probably only be worth it for half of the contract, but if this team wants to be competitive, it needs him.

[d-money]

So where will betts play next season? Infield or outfield?

[a700hitter]

So where will betts play next season? Infield or outfield?

He has no shaot at playing second base, and they did not give him an audition at 3rd base, so he is either slated for the OF or a trade. The OF is starting to get overcrowded with Cespedes, Castillo, Victorino, Craig, Betts, and Nava. Nava will be the first casualty, and Craig and Victorino will be trade bait. Personally, I would hate to see Victorino go and Craig looks like a shot player.

[d-money]

I would hate to see betts get traded.This team thought bradley jr was gonna be their leadoff hitter and he failed miserably.I wouldnt trade betts unless we are getting a guy like Chris Sale in a deal.

[jacksonianmarch]

Betts and Owens are your best trade chips. I don't think Xander has near the value he had a year ago, although he showed in September that he has the potential to be great. I don't think there is a chance the sox move Xander because theyd have to accept 50 cents on the dollar. SO either you're filling out your rotation via FA (unlikely) or you're gonna make deals via trade. If you do, Betts is gone, and depending on the player, Owens might be with him

[SoxFanForsyth]

Betts and Owens are your best trade chips. I don't think Xander has near the value he had a year ago, although he showed in September that he has the potential to be great. I don't think there is a chance the sox move Xander because theyd have to accept 50 cents on the dollar. SO either you're filling out your rotation via FA (unlikely) or you're gonna make deals via trade. If you do, Betts is gone, and depending on the player, Owens might be with him

 

Cherrington today mentioned 4 players as the Red Sox nucleus of the future - Bogaerts, Castillo, Betts, Vazquez.

 

That right there tells me that, unless it's for Chris Sale, Steven Strasburg, or Giancarlo Stanton, the Sox aren't moving any of those four (referring more to Betts in this case).

 

I know there has been a lot of talk about trading for a starter, but you're not going to see the Sox send over elite prospects for a guy like Cole Hamels, who is a very good pitcher but certainly is paid to be a very good pitcher.

 

Sox OF next year will be Cespedes - Castillo - Betts.

[SoxFanForsyth]

It will be really interesting to see where the Sox go at 3B.

 

Sandoval makes a lot of sense, but he's going to cost some big money and will block Cecchini. He could feasibly move to 1B after this season, though, when Nap's deal runs up.

 

Wonder if Chase Headley can be had on a 1 year pillow contract a la Beltre?

[jacksonianmarch]

Victorino is going to be in your starting OF next yr. If the sox are trying to win, then a healthy Victorino makes your lineup dangerous. And if you are trying to team build, building Vic's value up for a midseason trade can only help you. I am guessing that your OF will be a rotation of Castillo, Betts, Cespedes, and Victorino. Allen Craig might be your 3b, by the way. He's played it through the minors and a couple times in the bigs. If he has anything left, then it cannot hurt to try it. If he sucks, then you cut him. If he hits, then you can deal him at the deadline

[jacksonianmarch]

It will be really interesting to see where the Sox go at 3B.

 

Sandoval makes a lot of sense, but he's going to cost some big money and will block Cecchini. He could feasibly move to 1B after this season, though, when Nap's deal runs up.

 

Wonder if Chase Headley can be had on a 1 year pillow contract a la Beltre?

 

If he gets a 1 yr pillow contract, it will be in the Bronx. I think ideally, the Yankees would love to see what he can do when he has a completely healthy season. But I think he gets a 3 yr deal on the market due to offensive upside and elite 3b defense. I had no idea he was as good defensively as we saw in his short tenure in NY. He was awesome with the glove

[jacksonianmarch]

And building on the Headley thing, look at his stats the past few seasons.

 

2010- 3.6WAR

2011- 2.6 WAR

2012- 6.0 WAR

2013- 2.1 WAR

2014- 3.5 WAR

 

2012 is the outlier, but he's a pretty consistent 2.5 to 3.5 WAR player. And in NY, he had a .769OPS, akin to his career of .756. He's not the MVP candidate he was in 2012, that's an Ellsbury 2011 season, ie never happening again. But he's a pretty consistent .260/.350/.400 player at a position with a dearth of offensive talent around the league and BTW, he plays elite defense. He's gonna get a contract that most people wont predict. The sabremetric community will be throwing $12-$15 mil a season at this guy

[seabeachfred]

Cherrington today mentioned 4 players as the Red Sox nucleus of the future - Bogaerts, Castillo, Betts, Vazquez.

 

That right there tells me that, unless it's for Chris Sale, Steven Strasburg, or Giancarlo Stanton, the Sox aren't moving any of those four (referring more to Betts in this case).

 

I know there has been a lot of talk about trading for a starter, but you're not going to see the Sox send over elite prospects for a guy like Cole Hamels, who is a very good pitcher but certainly is paid to be a very good pitcher.

 

Sox OF next year will be Cespedes - Castillo - Betts.

 

Unless he is talking about just 2015 Cherington once again is showing he needs more bran in his diet. If we have to trade for a solid pitcher Betts, sad to say, is going. No way any team dealing with us passes up on Mookie unless they are plain dumb. Vazquez is a solid defensive catcher but Blake Swihart down on the farm combines good defense with solid hitting ability and emerging power. You do NOT trade a switch hitting catcher with power unless you get an ace back in exchange or are taking stupid pills----and I think Ben is finally through taking them after his experience with them this season. Castillo looks like we may have hit paydirt in a big way, but the jury is still out on Bogaerts, one of the worse hitters with men on base in the game this year. Ben might consider making alternate lists of go-to guys---and as far as Xander is concerned I think Cherington had better have a Plan B in case X starts leaving runners on base by the bushel again next season. He was pathetic in that regard this season.....a real choker.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fred, there is no quick fix for either NY or Boston. It should be a slow rebuild process. You bring in a few new guys, see how they acclimate, make a couple signings and maybe make that one big trade that puts you over the top. The thing is, there is no "big trade" that immediately puts you on the map. Your offense was abysmal and you have a rotation completely devoid of talent. And if you make the wrong move, it could set you back. You have a TON of talent, the question is, which guys make the big step. Think about it this way. Let's say you move Rubby, Betts, and Swihart for Stanton and Stanton lives up to the billing. But also consider if all 3 hit their ceiling and they're the guys who don't flame out, yet the others do, then the sox would be set back 5 seasons. Not all of the rookies are gonna hit. If you trade away the ones that do, then you could be f***ed.

[seabeachfred]

It will be really interesting to see where the Sox go at 3B.

 

Sandoval makes a lot of sense, but he's going to cost some big money and will block Cecchini. He could feasibly move to 1B after this season, though, when Nap's deal runs up.

 

Wonder if Chase Headley can be had on a 1 year pillow contract a la Beltre?

 

I have a high regard for Cecchini and believe that within a year he could be an effective third baseman for us for years. I don't want to spend a ton of money on Sandoval when we need that money to get pitching, and, as you said, I want no more of our prospects blocked. It's just too bad the rookies for us this year played so damn poorly. Bogaerts was a choker and a disappointment while Bradley was a total bust. Headley for one year would be fine though I think the Yankees will outbid us for him if they want him even though they know A-Rod will be back next season.

[seabeachfred]

Fred, there is no quick fix for either NY or Boston. It should be a slow rebuild process. You bring in a few new guys, see how they acclimate, make a couple signings and maybe make that one big trade that puts you over the top. The thing is, there is no "big trade" that immediately puts you on the map. Your offense was abysmal and you have a rotation completely devoid of talent. And if you make the wrong move, it could set you back. You have a TON of talent, the question is, which guys make the big step. Think about it this way. Let's say you move Rubby, Betts, and Swihart for Stanton and Stanton lives up to the billing. But also consider if all 3 hit their ceiling and they're the guys who don't flame out, yet the others do, then the sox would be set back 5 seasons. Not all of the rookies are gonna hit. If you trade away the ones that do, then you could be f***ed.

 

That's right Jacko, right on the money. Our problem is that Cherington may have been spooked by the way our rookie hopefuls played this season and is leery of trying to give any more young players a shot at a regular position----which I think is stupid. It is our problem that Bogaerts was a total choker this season and s*** the bed when the team stupidly signed Drew. As for Bradley, he is a bust. Cannot hit and will not hit and his terrific defense is suited only as a fourth or fifth outfielder for defensive purposes. Here's the problem though. You and I know, or should, that the AL East is winnable next year for both our teams. If we get two good pitchers we could be in the race....you get a slugger and a pitcher you're in it too. The key is not to give away the young store for a year or so of heavy experience that could turn out to be sour. I for one want to hold onto Swihart, Cecchini and Betts but we aren't going to go FA for two pitchers, only one in my opinion and that means a trade for the other. I can't see us not having to give up something like Betts to get that pitcher. Anyway, at this moment that's the way I see it and unlike you guys our owners have shown they can be real cheap bastards when it comes to resigning our free agents.

[curiousd]

That's right Jacko, right on the money. Our problem is that Cherington may have been spooked by the way our rookie hopefuls played this season and is leery of trying to give any more young players a shot at a regular position----which I think is stupid. It is our problem that Bogaerts was a total choker this season and s*** the bed when the team stupidly signed Drew. As for Bradley, he is a bust. Cannot hit and will not hit and his terrific defense is suited only as a fourth or fifth outfielder for defensive purposes. Here's the problem though. You and I know, or should, that the AL East is winnable next year for both our teams. If we get two good pitchers we could be in the race....you get a slugger and a pitcher you're in it too. The key is not to give away the young store for a year or so of heavy experience that could turn out to be sour. I for one want to hold onto Swihart, Cecchini and Betts but we aren't going to go FA for two pitchers, only one in my opinion and that means a trade for the other. I can't see us not having to give up something like Betts to get that pitcher. Anyway, at this moment that's the way I see it and unlike you guys our owners have shown they can be real cheap bastards when it comes to resigning our free agents.

 

1. Here I speak from the gut only. I have the gut feeling that Betts is something really, really special. Not only his hitting, but his attitude and game sense in terms of the way he runs the bases! I think future HOF ball player. Trade Betts in any package for one or two prime years of a pitcher...and we have another Bagwell for Anderson(??) (Was that the name of the guy that Gorman dealt for?) to haunt the RS for years to come.

 

2. Take your time with this, RS. We probably won't be able to buy a top pitcher with money only. The Yanks will out bid the RS for people like Lester and Sherzer.

 

3.It took a few years for Tilman, for instance, to develop into the Oriole's ace...the guy was terrible as a rookie and for several years after. The Rays took being beaten like a drum for years before they established their great young pitching development machine. Betts can be the RS centerpiece, around which the young pitchers are developed, like Longoria is the centerpiece for the Rays.

[a700hitter]

1. Here I speak from the gut only. I have the gut feeling that Betts is something really, really special. Not only his hitting, but his attitude and game sense in terms of the way he runs the bases! I think future HOF ball player. Trade Betts in any package for one or two prime years of a pitcher...and we have another Bagwell for Anderson(??) (Was that the name of the guy that Gorman dealt for?) to haunt the RS for years to come.

 

2. Take your time with this, RS. We probably won't be able to buy a top pitcher with money only. The Yanks will out bid the RS for people like Lester and Sherzer.

 

3.It took a few years for Tilman, for instance, to develop into the Oriole's ace...the guy was terrible as a rookie and for several years after. The Rays took being beaten like a drum for years before they established their great young pitching development machine. Betts can be the RS centerpiece, around which the young pitchers are developed, like Longoria is the centerpiece for the Rays.

The Rays got beaten like a drum again this season.

 

Toronto waited years for their young talent to develop. It never did as they sat at the bottom of the standings. I like Betts, but HOF aspirations might be a little premature. Bag well was traded for a middle reliever, Larry Anderson who pitched for us for a month. We didn't get a couple of years out of a top starter.

[Bellhorn04]

1. Here I speak from the gut only. I have the gut feeling that Betts is something really, really special. Not only his hitting, but his attitude and game sense in terms of the way he runs the bases! I think future HOF ball player. Trade Betts in any package for one or two prime years of a pitcher...and we have another Bagwell for Anderson(??) (Was that the name of the guy that Gorman dealt for?) to haunt the RS for years to come.

 

2. Take your time with this, RS. We probably won't be able to buy a top pitcher with money only. The Yanks will out bid the RS for people like Lester and Sherzer.

 

3.It took a few years for Tilman, for instance, to develop into the Oriole's ace...the guy was terrible as a rookie and for several years after. The Rays took being beaten like a drum for years before they established their great young pitching development machine. Betts can be the RS centerpiece, around which the young pitchers are developed, like Longoria is the centerpiece for the Rays.

 

I think I have to agree on Betts. You don't trade this guy unless Stanton is coming back. Betts looks tremendous. Trading him for a pitcher would be PR suicide, especially after the dismal season just concluded.

[a700hitter]

I think I have to agree on Betts. You don't trade this guy unless Stanton is coming back. Betts looks tremendous. Trading him for a pitcher would be PR suicide, especially after the dismal season just concluded.

Unfortunately, the FO has put themselves in a position where they have very few trade chips. Betts and Owens are about all we have. No one is going to call and inquire about Bradleyor Middlebrools. And any offers that we get for XB will be lowball offers. I wouldn't espxpect much help through trades unless Betts or Owens are part of it. I like Betts too, but I think we are so excited about him because of the contrast between his play and the other guys who were busts this year. I don't know if Betts 2014 was any more impressive than XB 2013, so I will temper my enthusiasm and I will not be too upset if he nets us Cole Hamels.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Unfortunately, the FO has put themselves in a position where they have very few trade chips. Betts and Owens are about all we have. No one is going to call and inquire about Bradleyor Middlebrools. And any offers that we get for XB will be lowball offers. I wouldn't espxpect much help through trades unless Betts or Owens are part of it. I like Betts too, but I think we are so excited about him because of the contrast between his play and the other guys who were busts this year. I don't know if Betts 2014 was any more impressive than XB 2013, so I will temper my enthusiasm and I will not be too upset if he nets us Cole Hamels.

 

'Betts and Owens is about all we have'

 

Clearly you don't follow the Sox prospects.

 

Aside from them, what about Swihart, Devers, Margot, Rodriguez, Johnson, Chavis, and Barnes?

 

That's 10 prospects we can deal from. Not 2.

 

You wouldn't be upset if our future SS nets us Cole Hamels?? That would be the most lopsided trade the Sox have made since the Varitek trade, except this time in the wrong direction.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Victorino is going to be in your starting OF next yr. If the sox are trying to win, then a healthy Victorino makes your lineup dangerous. And if you are trying to team build, building Vic's value up for a midseason trade can only help you. I am guessing that your OF will be a rotation of Castillo, Betts, Cespedes, and Victorino. Allen Craig might be your 3b, by the way. He's played it through the minors and a couple times in the bigs. If he has anything left, then it cannot hurt to try it. If he sucks, then you cut him. If he hits, then you can deal him at the deadline

 

No he's not. Victorino will be either traded for pennies on the dollar, or he will be the Sox 4th OF. He makes no sense to have on this team with Cespedes, Betts, Castillo, and Craig all as RHH outfielders, and Vic is virtually a RHH OF now too.

 

No chance he starts in the OF. The starting outfield will be Cespedes - Castillo - Betts

[SoxFanForsyth]

Fred, there is no quick fix for either NY or Boston. It should be a slow rebuild process. You bring in a few new guys, see how they acclimate, make a couple signings and maybe make that one big trade that puts you over the top. The thing is, there is no "big trade" that immediately puts you on the map. Your offense was abysmal and you have a rotation completely devoid of talent. And if you make the wrong move, it could set you back. You have a TON of talent, the question is, which guys make the big step. Think about it this way. Let's say you move Rubby, Betts, and Swihart for Stanton and Stanton lives up to the billing. But also consider if all 3 hit their ceiling and they're the guys who don't flame out, yet the others do, then the sox would be set back 5 seasons. Not all of the rookies are gonna hit. If you trade away the ones that do, then you could be f***ed.

 

This is funny. The Red Sox are 2 SP and a 3B away from being a WS contender.

 

If the Sox go out and sign Lester and Shields, or trade for Hamels and sign Lester or Shields, then sign Sandoval, that's a WS caliber team. That's all it takes. That's a quick fix. Xander turned a corner after his DL stint. Betts was on pace for a 5-6 win season. Ortiz hit 35 homers. Cespedes, while he didn't have a great OBP, hit the ball well.

 

A lineup of Betts Pedroia Ortiz Cespedes Napoli Sandoval Bogaerts Castillo Vazquez is going to score a ton of runs.

A rotation of Lester/Shields - Hamels - Buchholz - Kelly - Rookie is going to be a strong rotation.

Anyone here knows a pen can be pieced together pretty easily, but Koji Taz Mujica Layne Webster is a really good start.

 

To say the Sox, given their resources and their nucleus, isn't going to be a 'quick fix' is pretty delusional