Bogaerts and Bradley By Joseph Werner from ESPN

[Spitball]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/51184/whats-the-future-for-bogaerts-Bradley

[a700hitter]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/51184/whats-the-future-for-bogaerts-Bradley

So the author concludes that the probability that Bradley will be toast is overwhelming. As for Xander being our next superstar, he has a 50/50 chance of becoming a Chris Speier type performer. Oh boy, we are on our way back to prominence. He has a 13% probability of becoming an above average performer. They have clearly hit more than a bump in the road - they are experiencing more than ordinary growing pains.

[Spudboy]

Thanks for posting this Spitball.

 

I just don't have much patience for articles like this, though.

 

All the advanced metrics and historical data are not needed to see what should be obvious to most of us.

 

Bradley has a long way to go and most likely will not be a MLB offensive juggernaut.

 

XB has his youth on his side but he too is far from being a big time contributor in the show.

[Spitball]

I hear you, Spud. I actually find statistical baseball studies interesting, but I understand their limitations.

[Spudboy]

I hear you, Spud. I actually find statistical baseball studies interesting, but I understand their limitations.

 

Don't get me wrong. I look at stats too.

 

I like to watch the games as well.

[jacksonianmarch]

The book isn't written on either guy yet. As for Bogaerts, people had him as an MVP candidate this yr, which is f***ing laughable. His MiLB career OPS was .862, which is very good, but doesn't scream superstar as most big league superstars OPS over .900 in the big leagues. The only thing on his side was the fact that he was doing it at such a young age. What they should have been doing is giving him more time to mature in the minors instead of rushing him. Bradley, to be honest with you, is showing that he's a 4th OFer

[vjcsmoke]

Right now, JBJ is a gold glove CFer with no bat. You can afford to carry one of those types of players in the OF if the other two starters are well-above average to all-star level. However we have not seen that level of play from our LF/RFers this season. Therefore overall the OF offense was a disaster.

 

With Rusney Castillo added to the mix, it appears to me that JBJ's days are numbered in Boston. Even if he turns into a Coco Crisp level player, I doubt he will get the chance to prove that with a 70m dollar centerfielder signed longterm with a starting role in mind by both Cherington and Farrell.

[GomesBeard]

The book isn't written on either guy yet. As for Bogaerts, people had him as an MVP candidate this yr, which is f***ing laughable. His MiLB career OPS was .862, which is very good, but doesn't scream superstar as most big league superstars OPS over .900 in the big leagues. The only thing on his side was the fact that he was doing it at such a young age. What they should have been doing is giving him more time to mature in the minors instead of rushing him. Bradley, to be honest with you, is showing that he's a 4th OFer

 

They were both really brought up too soon to fill needs created by injuries/non-signings. They should have spent the year in Pawtucket, then come up 9/1.

[Palodios]

The book isn't written on either guy yet. As for Bogaerts, people had him as an MVP candidate this yr, which is f***ing laughable. His MiLB career OPS was .862, which is very good, but doesn't scream superstar as most big league superstars OPS over .900 in the big leagues. The only thing on his side was the fact that he was doing it at such a young age. What they should have been doing is giving him more time to mature in the minors instead of rushing him.

 

You could have replaced "Bogaerts" with "Montero" and .863 OPS with .852 OPS a few few years ago, and it would be exactly the same. Overhyped prospects are overhyped.

 

Hopefully Bogaerts's recent surge is a sign of things to come, but at the end of the day, they probably should have traded him, as the Yankees did for Pineda.

[Palodios]

Bogaerts has been really inconsistent this year. The first third of the season, he had a .400 OBP, and a .850 OPS. The second third he he hit .150. Now he's hitting very well again. I dunno.

[jacksonianmarch]

You could have replaced "Bogaerts" with "Montero" and .863 OPS with .852 OPS a few few years ago, and it would be exactly the same. Overhyped prospects are overhyped.

 

Hopefully Bogaerts's recent surge is a sign of things to come, but at the end of the day, they probably should have traded him, as the Yankees did for Pineda.

 

Montero had better offensive numbers for the most part. At age 20, he split A+ and AA with an OPS of .951. At 21, he had an .870OPS in AAA. Bogaerts never had a .900OPS over a full season in the minors. And Bogaerts in AAA had an .822OPS in 60 games. Regardless, both hit well, Montero was the better minor league hitter. That being said, Montero was a f***ing butcher with the glove where Bogaerts likely projects as a pretty good glove man at a corner IF spot. The big kicker is that Bogey was 18 in A ball. At 19, he split High A and AA. At 20, he split AA/AAA and MLB. Now, at 21, he is failing in the bigs. He probably should have spent Age 20 ripping up AA, 21 ripping up AA and coming up midway through next season, as opposed to him debuting last yr and flailing all yr this yr. He has the raw skills and talents to be an excellent hitter. He just seems to lack that mental fortitude that the great hitters have. For that matter, so did Montero.

[seabeachfred]

Bogaerts has been really inconsistent this year. The first third of the season, he had a .400 OBP, and a .850 OPS. The second third he he hit .150. Now he's hitting very well again. I dunno.

 

Well I think I know. If Tulowitski is adamant about leaving Colorado there is our next shortstop and Bogaerts should be part of the that deal. He can't hit with men on base, is lousy in the clutch and those weaknesses usually do not improve with age......they get even worse, if that's possible in X's case. The fact that he's started to hit now with no pressure and our team out of it only angers me more. I said in April this guy was a potential choker.....I think I've been vindicated by what has gone on with him this season.

[Spitball]

...those weaknesses usually do not improve with age......they get even worse...

 

Fred, can you please justify this with some kind of proof, or is this just an opinion?

[seabeachfred]

Fred, can you please justify this with some kind of proof, or is this just an opinion?

 

Spitball, it comes from observing baseball for over 65 seasons. Some players never learn to hit with men on base and it becomes a mental block. Most recently, there was Raul Mondesi, considered by the Dodgers to be their next big star in the 80's. The problem was he hit with no one on base, when they were way ahead or way behind. Eventually the team caught on and he was traded.....Toronto, the Yankees, Pirates, Braves... The reputation stuck. He was a choker. You want more, I'll give you more.

[a700hitter]

Hitting in September when your team is eliminated is almost as meaningless as hitting in Spring Training.

[d-money]

I think bogaerts can turn it around.Not sure on bradley.I wanna see bogaerts get a little stronger during the offseason.

[Spitball]

Spitball, it comes from observing baseball for over 65 seasons. Some players never learn to hit with men on base and it becomes a mental block. Most recently, there was Raul Mondesi, considered by the Dodgers to be their next big star in the 80's. The problem was he hit with no one on base, when they were way ahead or way behind. Eventually the team caught on and he was traded.....Toronto, the Yankees, Pirates, Braves... The reputation stuck. He was a choker. You want more, I'll give you more.

 

65 years? How old are you, Fred?

 

Raul Mondesi actually played in the 1990s and early 2000s. His career slash in late and close games was .270/.328/.462. In tied games, it was .281/.338/.483. Where is the proof he was a choker?

[a700hitter]

What are XB's stats for those situations? Also do those slash lines distinguish between meaningful games and September games after the race is over?

[Elktonnick]

It is like hitting in garbage time in a blow out.

[Bellhorn04]

You could argue that the Red Sox have had very few meaningful games this year.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally, I don't think there are that many 'garbage time' plate appearances in MLB. They all count equally in the player's season and career stats, and those stats are scrutinized to death and used to judge the player's value. They affect his playing time, his potential future earnings etc. etc. Sure there's less pressure if your team is out of it, but most hitters and pitchers are still trying their asses off because of the almighty statistics.

[a700hitter]

Personally, I don't think there are that many 'garbage time' plate appearances in MLB. They all count equally in the player's season and career stats, and those stats are scrutinized to death and used to judge the player's value. They affect his playing time, his potential future earnings etc. etc. Sure there's less pressure if your team is out of it, but most hitters and pitchers are still trying their asses off because of the almighty statistics.

I disagree. You are grasping at straws. I think Fred might be right about this kid. There can never be any empirical evidence to prove it, but the numbers are starting to build in a very ugly way. As for my assertion, that September garbage time stats don't mean much is a concept that has been around baseball for ages -- that Spring Training and September performances are not reliable barometers of performance. Best case scenario for the Red Sox would be for XB to hit 6 HRs in the last 2 weeks to reestablish his trade value and then to package him up and get something in return for him.

[Bellhorn04]

I disagree. You are grasping at straws. I think Fred might be right about this kid. There can never be any empirical evidence to prove it, but the numbers are starting to build in a very ugly way. As for my assertion, that September garbage time stats don't mean much is a concept that has been around baseball for ages -- that Spring Training and September performances are not reliable barometers of performance. Best case scenario for the Red Sox would be for XB to hit 6 HRs in the last 2 weeks to reestablish his trade value and then to package him up and get something in return for him.

 

No, it's way too early to give up on Bogaerts. He's 21. He's hit 11 jacks. It's not like JBJ who's only hit 1.

[Elktonnick]

Ever since I can remember real baseball experts have warned against making judgments based on September stats and late inning blow out hits. The only ones who pay attention to such phony numbers are those saber geeks who couldn't tell a curveball from a slider if they actually held a bat in their hand. (Or as the farmer's say straw from hay) No one is giving up on Bogaerts yet. We are only saying he isn't the super stud that some would have you believe. Hell he is no Nomar, Rypken or Jeter that's for sure. He might not be as good as Stephen Drew in his prime. The jury is still out. But from what I've seen, he isn't the guy I want to see hitting with the game on the line in a pennant race.

[a700hitter]

No, it's way too early to give up on Bogaerts. He's 21. He's hit 11 jacks. It's not like JBJ who's only hit 1.

it's too late to give up on him. He has taken an ax to his trade value. They have to see it through. They have already placed their bet on him. He is not going to be the next Nomar type superstar shortstop. I am not so sure that he will ever be a solid defender at SS. The Red Sox need to figure that out fast. A substandard defender at SS can wreck a team over the course of a season. It forced the FO to go get Drew this season.

[a700hitter]

No, it's way too early to give up on Bogaerts. He's 21. He's hit 11 jacks. It's not like JBJ who's only hit 1.

Are you finally throwing in the towel on Bradley? What a ridiculous hype job the FO did on that guy! It's incredulous to me that the FO couldn't tell that he had no chance of matching the hype. He should have been traded before he got exposed. They got the "pump" part right of " pumping and dumping"' but they forgot the dump part.

 

He took another oh'fer yesterday with 2 more k's. He can't even produce in garbage time. What a trainwreck ! I don't think that he has a future even as a 4th OFer. Ryan Kalish is a better 4 th OFer and he is having trouble sticking in the majors. DMac is a superstar 4th OFer compared to Bradley and he has spent more time on buses than in the majors.

[Spudboy]

Even if XB continues to hit and not make so many stupid plays at SS during September "Garbage Time" I doubt that the Sox will move him if there is any interest. He's most likely going to be the starting SS for our team coming out of SS in 2015.

 

So get used to it!

 

I wonder about 3rd base. Are the Sox going to keep WMB and hope that he starts 2015 playing well enough to be the starter going forward???? If not, who will be the chosen one? Can Graig play 3rd at all? He plays 1st okay. Although a sub .100 BA is not going to get it done. Can the Sox move him to another team with the way that he has been failing at the plate?

 

It's nauseating to consider all of this. What happened to our Sox????

 

The Sox have 7 outfield candidates for 2015. Can some of them be moved to upgrade pitching or the left side infield? Are any of them worth anything other than Cespedes and Betts?

 

What a mess.

[d-money]

Bogaerts needs to add muscle the natural way.

[a700hitter]

Even if XB continues to hit and not make so many stupid plays at SS during September "Garbage Time" I doubt that the Sox will move him if there is any interest. He's most likely going to be the starting SS for our team coming out of SS in 2015.

 

So get used to it!

 

I wonder about 3rd base. Are the Sox going to keep WMB and hope that he starts 2015 playing well enough to be the starter going forward???? If not, who will be the chosen one? Can Graig play 3rd at all? He plays 1st okay. Although a sub .100 BA is not going to get it done. Can the Sox move him to another team with the way that he has been failing at the plate?

 

It's nauseating to consider all of this. What happened to our Sox????

 

The Sox have 7 outfield candidates for 2015. Can some of them be moved to upgrade pitching or the left side infield? Are any of them worth anything other than Cespedes and Betts?

 

What a mess.

I agree, Spud. It is a mess. The good thing about a mess like this is that there are so many avenues they can go down to improve the situation. I also agree that the plan is for XB to be the starting SS in 2015. I hope that he improves defensively. He is not doing a good job right now.

 

IMO, Middlebrooks and Bradley will not be considerations to make the 2015 roster. Vasquez is likely to get the job behind the plate and he is a defensive player without much offense. XBXB's offense can not be counted on either. No one can predict what Castillo will do offensively, but he has $72 million reasons why he will be one of our OFers. Those are 3 big offensive questions marks. They can't afford to have Middlebrooks and Bradley kill 2 more lineup slots. That would leave us with 4 reliable hitters -- Ortiz, Pedroia, Napoli, and Cespedes. Are you starting to see the potential trainwreck if middle stinks and Bradley are part of the picture? They are no-goes in my opinion. Middle stinks has the thinnest of margins for redemption. He has to absolutely tear up winter ball to get a shot next seaso., but the clueless bastard thinks that he just needs to stay healthy. In addition to adding 2 top of the rotation starters, we need at least one more productive bat.

[Behindenemylines]

Bogaerts has been really inconsistent this year. The first third of the season, he had a .400 OBP, and a .850 OPS. The second third he he hit .150. Now he's hitting very well again. I dunno.

 

Bogaerts is still only 21 years old. He is hitting again, and his SS defense is improving. I think a lot people forget how young he is. I still think big things are ahead for the kid. JBJ on the other hand will probably be used as a trade chip. There will be some team that has SP that the Sox need who think they can fix JBJ hitting and have a Gold Glove CF.