The Jon Lester contract situation

[SoxFanForsyth]

So, you would get rid of Lester in favor of 2 hopefully ace like years of Lee. After the 2 years of Lee, Rubby, Owens, Renaudo, Cecchini, Bradley and XB will all be established stars or very good players? I think that might be just a bit overly ambitious.

 

Lee has a 3rd year option on his contract. And yeah, you limit the years on the deal, you see what you have, and then you reassess.

 

By the time Lee is through his 2nd or 3rd year, Lester will likely be beginning the downward spiral on his career, too, so now you don't have to eat those last 3-4 years and you can go get a younger kid, or let someone like Owens take over.

[Bellhorn04]

Lee has a 3rd year option on his contract. And yeah, you limit the years on the deal, you see what you have, and then you reassess.

 

By the time Lee is through his 2nd or 3rd year, Lester will likely be beginning the downward spiral on his career, too, so now you don't have to eat those last 3-4 years and you can go get a younger kid, or let someone like Owens take over.

 

At what age did Lee's downward spiral begin?

[sk7326]

I still think they should trade for Lee, dish Lester, and give yourself another 2 years with a top of the rotation ace (Lee) while your prospects develop, but don't handcuff yourself with a 5-6 year deal on a guy who is going to have 1,600 innings on his arm before he starts his contract.

 

1. Odds are Lester will be a top of the rotation guy in 2 years - better than odds than Lee.

2. When his decline starts most likely, he'd still be a 200 IP #3 sort of guy. $20M seems rich for that, but by 2016 it probably won't be.

3. You don't need a "true #1" to win it all - we already proved that.

[Behindenemylines]

Just based on things I have heard and read it doesn't look good that the Sox resign Lester. I hope I'm wrong, but I got a bad feeling. If he doesn't sign with the Sox, you know who is going to throw a ton of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (I believe they print their own money) at him. An it will kill me see that happen. If the Sox are saving all of this money with all of the younger players they surely will have some to pay for an ace of a staff. Lester's numbers show that he is durable and will be good for the 5 years. I think it would be a good investment.

[Bellhorn04]

Too bad we don't have a sweet clue of what Lester is looking for, or whether he has given the Red Sox any numbers at all.

[Station 13]

Too bad we don't have a sweet clue of what Lester is looking for, or whether he has given the Red Sox any numbers at all.

 

Reportedly wants the same what Scherzer got from Detroit, 144M.

[Gringo]

He's gone, that much seems pretty clear. But if they know they're not going to sign him, and they know they don't have the talent to win anything this year, why not trade him now and get something in return?

[Spudboy]

Of course now there is this bit of news.

 

I wonder how much of this is real and not just speculation.

 

I do agree that the Sox brass do not want to resign Lester. I just do not see them shelling out $140.-$190. mil for him over 5-7 years.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/wilbur/2014/07/why_would_the_red_sox_want_cole_hamels_over_jon_le.html

[Station 13]

They don't want to re-sign their best pitcher in the last decade? I find that hard to believe.

[Palodios]

They don't want to re-sign their best pitcher in the last decade? I find that hard to believe.

 

In all fairness, what did they do with their best pitcher in the last century?

[Station 13]

In all fairness, what did they do with their best pitcher in the last century?

 

Pedro worked out great for the Mets didn't he? For the 1st year.

 

The Red Sox winding up having to spend on an unproven Dice-k 2 year later, while also missing the playoff in 2006. And also needed to part with Sanchez and Ramizez to get Beckett, who sucked his 1st year in Boston.

 

Get lester re-sign is the team top priority.

[Spudboy]

Getting Lester signed is a fan priority.

 

Appearing as though they want to sign Lester is probably what the Sox want in this matter.

 

The Sox should make an offer to Lester for 5/135 and wait for Lester to reject it. Then the Sox back off and make no other offers. When Lester signs with another team ( like the Yankees ), the Sox brass can say that they made a good ( reasonable ) offer to Lester and he turned it down. Face saved.

 

See, the Sox don't want any part of signing Lester to a 5-8 year, $140.-$190. mil deal. They make what appears to be a decent offer now and most fans will say "the Sox tried" and be satisfied with that. The Sox brass is more concerned about the PR in this matter than they are about signing "their best pitcher for the last ten years".

 

This is all only my opinion.

 

Just like most other posts in this thread.

[Palodios]

Pedro worked out great for the Mets didn't he? For the 1st year.

 

Its Pedro. Hindsight is what it is, but letting him go to free agency will never make sense to me.

Same with Roger Clemens.

Same with Jon Lester.

[a700hitter]

Its Pedro. Hindsight is what it is, but letting him go to free agency will never make sense to me.

Same with Roger Clemens.

Same with Jon Lester.

And maybe with Pedro they win back to back titles in 2005. Our game 1 starter in the playoffs in 2005 was embarrassingly , Matt Clement. He wet his pants on the mound.

[Spudboy]

And maybe with Pedro they win back to back titles in 2005. Our game 1 starter in the playoffs in 2005 was embarrassingly , Matt Clement. He wet his pants on the mound.

 

Too bad Clement got beaned by a combacker after his hot start. He looked really good up to that indecent.

 

Of course to speak to your point, he probably was crap anyway.

[Station 13]

Lester price is starting to look like 150M+ to start. Just think if they gotten a deal done in spring training, they could've him lock up for 100-110M.

 

Pet Peavy and Horseface clears over $35M from the books next year. Get Jon Lester re-sign.

[a700hitter]

Lester price is starting to look like 150M+ to start. Just think if they gotten a deal done in spring training, they could've him lock up for 100-110M.

 

Pet Peavy and Horseface clears over $35M from the books next year. Get Jon Lester re-sign.

They gave him the opportunity to build his value, and that was a mistake. For the most part, teams have been locking up their aces before they hit the open market. The FO is in the process of botching this.

[gojohn99]

Do you think the Yankees are happy with CC Sabathia now? He was signed for 8 years 182 million for 2009-2016. He was 28 in 2009, now he's a washed up 33 year old. Sure Lester doesn't have the weight issues CC has, but maybe the Sox know what they're doing? Then again, maybe not.

[Station 13]

Lester doesn't have an injury history. While it seems he has thrown a ton of innings, it really didn't begin until his mid 20s. CC is the opposite, threw an overload of innings beginning at age 20. I think Lester can live up to his contract in the first 5 year. Edited July 21, 2014 by Station 13

[a700hitter]

Do you think the Yankees are happy with CC Sabathia now? He was signed for 8 years 182 million for 2009-2016. He was 28 in 2009, now he's a washed up 33 year old. Sure Lester doesn't have the weight issues CC has, but maybe the Sox know what they're doing? Then again, maybe not.

He was a stud and got them a World Championship in his first season. So, it is not like the guy has been a bust. We have had plenty of bad contracts too -- maybe worse because we didn' t get any big seasons out of some of our busts. The Yankees miscalculation was re-signing him after the opt- out/

[sk7326]

Do you think the Yankees are happy with CC Sabathia now? He was signed for 8 years 182 million for 2009-2016. He was 28 in 2009, now he's a washed up 33 year old. Sure Lester doesn't have the weight issues CC has, but maybe the Sox know what they're doing? Then again, maybe not.

 

Flags fly forever. If this was Pittsburgh, sure - but it's not. The franchise charges fans too much to skimp like that. Yanks got a title out of it and 3-4 really good years - they just had almost zippo behind him (at least "postseason good" level). They also put a contract in with a player option - which CC cashed in on. That's Cashman's fault - nobody is asking the Sox to put in an escape clause in year 3 for Lester. A 4-5 year deal with a reasonable vested option for another year is completely acceptable for a guy with no injury history and a low effort mechanic sort of delivery.

[Palodios]

Do you think the Yankees are happy with CC Sabathia now? He was signed for 8 years 182 million for 2009-2016. He was 28 in 2009, now he's a washed up 33 year old. Sure Lester doesn't have the weight issues CC has, but maybe the Sox know what they're doing? Then again, maybe not.

 

They signed CC from 2009-2015, not 2016. The real problem was that they signed him to that stupid extension. He was pretty much worth the money up until he opted out.

[jacksonianmarch]

He was a stud and got them a World Championship in his first season. So, it is not like the guy has been a bust. We have had plenty of bad contracts too -- maybe worse because we didn' t get any big seasons out of some of our busts. The Yankees miscalculation was re-signing him after the opt- out/

 

I was just about to say that. We should have stuck to our guns on the initial deal. Granted, at the time, he looked like a horse we were gonna ride for the next 5-6 yrs. Who knew he'd lose a bunch of weight and it would inversely affect his performance, lol. I wish fat CC were back. Maybe he'd be good for another 20 win season

[jacksonianmarch]

Flags fly forever. If this was Pittsburgh, sure - but it's not. The franchise charges fans too much to skimp like that. Yanks got a title out of it and 3-4 really good years - they just had almost zippo behind him (at least "postseason good" level). They also put a contract in with a player option - which CC cashed in on. That's Cashman's fault - nobody is asking the Sox to put in an escape clause in year 3 for Lester. A 4-5 year deal with a reasonable vested option for another year is completely acceptable for a guy with no injury history and a low effort mechanic sort of delivery.

 

A 4-5 yr deal with a vesting option was reasonable before the season. Now? No way. He's gonna get 6-8 yr deals on the open market at STUPID money. If the sox sign him, they are going to be paying in excess of $50 mil more in committed money than they would have had they not lowballed him early on. A 5yr $100 mil offer in February likely finishes this process. Now? It's more like 7yrs $175 mil.

[Station 13]

A-rod, Tex, CC making about 70M next year. Hilarious. Ellsbury can join that bandwagon by 2017.

[win red sox]

why does people assume that they could have locked him up on 4-5 year deal in the spring? He stated he wanted to retire as a member of the red sox, to me that says 6-7 year contract.

[Palodios]

Gammons reporting that Lester was looking for about a $105 million dollar contract in the offseason. He's also reporting that the Ben is seriously considering trading Lester if the contract talks don't work out.

[sk7326]

A 4-5 yr deal with a vesting option was reasonable before the season. Now? No way. He's gonna get 6-8 yr deals on the open market at STUPID money. If the sox sign him, they are going to be paying in excess of $50 mil more in committed money than they would have had they not lowballed him early on. A 5yr $100 mil offer in February likely finishes this process. Now? It's more like 7yrs $175 mil.

 

I don't doubt the market. I thought he was a 22-25 million commodity entering the season - because folks undervalued exactly how valuable a #2/3 starter who was a lock to churn out 30 starts a year was. I'd imagine they need 5 guaranteed years to start - maybe vest the 6th and a team option after, like they did with Ortiz but longer. You are right - they have made this unnecessarily difficult for reasons which make sense if this team were the Padres.

[jacksonianmarch]

A-rod, Tex, CC making about 70M next year. Hilarious. Ellsbury can join that bandwagon by 2017.

 

Tex has been pretty solid this yr. ARod is waste of money. CC may cost us just his lux tax percentage because his contract is fully insured

[Palodios]

Tex has been pretty solid this yr. ARod is waste of money. CC may cost us just his lux tax percentage because his contract is fully insured

 

You always talk about these gigantic contracts being insured, but I've never seen any proof of this. All the articles I have read place big restrictions on them. High deductibles. 3 year limits on insurance policies, and any new insurance policies factor in all previous injuries. Older players -- which most of the Yankees are -- have much higher premiums. And seriously, when was the last time individuals had an easy time collecting on insurance policies? I'm sure these insurance companies have lots of restrictions and limitations.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-insurance-on-a-rods-contract-save-the-yankees/