2013 Yankee Hot Stove Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

And with the 2013 autopsy complete and the body interred into the ground, all Yankee fans can focus on the promise of brighter days. I thought long and hard about the Yankees capability to contend without throwing big money out there, then I decided to actually look up the contract commitments for 2014. What I saw was pretty shocking. Including ARod, the Yankees have a mere $98.025 mil on the books. Without ARod and his $26 mil cap hit, we'd be at a lowly $72.025 mil. We have a few players in arb, but all together will likely commit another $15 mil to the total. So if we assume ARod will be around for the whole season, we have a cap number before any additions of $113.025 mil. Therefore, we have about $75.975 mil to play with to stay under the cap. That is a significant amount of money to throw at players. Now, let's look at the team we have under contract or arb

 

C- Cervelli

C- Romine

C- Murphy

1B- Teixeira

2B- Ryan/Nunez

SS- Jeter/Nunez/Ryan

3B- ARod (for now)

LF- Soriano

CF- Gardner

RF- Ichiro/Wells

DH- Ichiro/Wells/Jeter

 

SP1- Sabathia

SP2- Nova

SP3- Phelps

SP4- Warren

SP5- Pineda/Banuelos

 

CL- Robertson

MR- Kelley

MR- Claiborne

MR- Betances

 

 

Rotation

We have some filling out to do, that is for sure. For starters, let's look at the starters. If we go into the season with that rotation, we will learn a whole lot about the depth of our farm and the depths to which we can sink with a $100+ mil payroll. There is no way on God's green earth we go into a season with this much money to burn and not fill out the rotation. Sabathia will be entrenched at the #1 spot because he couldn't possibly suck as bad as he did last yr. His stuff got better as the year went on, yet his production went down the shitter. I think a full offseason instead of one spent rehabbing a surgically repaired elbow will do him wonders. He may not come back as a low 3ERA guy, but he wont be the meatballing f***up we saw wearing his uniform at years end. Nova is a very solid #3 pitcher. His bipolar nature on the mound will limit his ceiling until he truly grasps his stuff and stops having mental f***ups. Stuffwise, you'll be hard pressed to find someone with a better arsenal. It's his makeup that limits him. Starting the yr as the #3 would be fine. Expecting an ace or #2 type performance is leaving a lot of s*** to chance. Phelps and Warren could both fill out the #5 spot. I am not sure either should be trusted as a #4. For me, a #4 starter on a large market club is a guy who can produce league average ERA with good stamina. A guy like Arroyo comes to mind as a good #4. We need one. So in total, we need a #2 and a #4 starter. Preferably, that #2 starter would be a #1a guy should CC turn into a gigantic shitstain again.

Needs: #2, #4 starters

 

Lineup

We have some holes to fill, once again. Losing Cano and Granderson will be big. Hopefully we lose f***bag roidhead cheater at third as well. For this synopsis, though, I am going to anticipate f***bag isn't there as we will need to address a replacement at 3b should f***o lose his appeal. Starting at catcher. Cervelli was off to a solid start when he broke his hand then cheated his balls off. Romine looks overwhelmed. Murphy looks like he could be a good one eventually, but I doubt he turns into Russell Martin overnight. We could use a catcher. Maybe not a McCann, but someone who can come in and not be as bad as Stewart offensively or as bad as Salty defensively. We need at least one, preferably two middle infielders. Ryan and Nunez are not 2b's. Cano is a probability, but at his price, we could get 2 players who could replace his production at a fraction the cost. We also will need a 3b. I'd also like to add a corner OFer if there is room in the budget, although the OF as stated above isn't that bad.

Needs: 2MIF, 3B, C

Wants: COF

 

Bullpen

We need a closer, or at least someone who can take the mantle from Robertson should he choke. Maybe having Mo out of there will give KRob the gonadal fortitude to lock down the 9th, but his resume in the closers role isn't good. He was abysmal in 2012 when Mo went down and in his few chances in 2013, he wasn't good. We also need a LH specialist. We do not need much more. We have a s***-ton of MLB ready relievers in our minor league system. While the Sox have been churning out prospects capable of playing unneeded positions like SS, SP, CF, etc we have been focusing on the real bread and butter...Middle relief. (Hope you get the sarcasm there.) In all honesty, though, I am not sure a system has churned out so many prospects capable of filling a pen. We seem to find steals in the 5th-10th rounds. When other teams swing big for the HS power hitter, Cash is loading up on college closers. And it has been working to be honest. Whitley, Claiborne, Montgomery, Kahnle, etc are ready with a slew more maybe a half season away. This is the kind of year we can try to find the right connection since we have so many guys capable of handling the long and short relief slots.

Needs: CL, LHRP

 

So, when you look at needs you have a Closer, Lefty Specialist, #2 starter, #4 starter, C, 2B, SS, 3B. When you look at wants, you have a COF. That is a whole f***ing lot of holes on a team with a budget. Well here goes.

 

I am going to start on the position player side of things. I want to deal for Brandon Phillips. The guy plays great defense and was a bit unlucky last yr. He'll be turning 33 midway through the season and is under contract until 2017, but it is a manageable cap hit of $12.1 mil per season. His big contract and his off season in 2013 will make him a little more expendable and as such, if we eat the whole contract, we could probably get him for one good prospect. We have a slew of prospects coming off down years, I am sure we could work something out. (Maybe Banuelos here). There have been tons of rumors as to the fact that Cincy wants to move him. Why not here. Phillips: $12.1 mil

 

At catcher, I want to go for the gusto. Go get McCann. I think the guy can be signed for 5yrs $90 mil. He turns 30 in February, so he isn't exactly old. 5 yrs for a catcher should do the trick. Move his lefty power bat into the Bronx and he'll hit 30HR per annum and giving him some rest in the DH spot will be good. The more I look at this, the more I want it to happen, especially if we don't throw 2014. McCann: $18 mil

 

As far as 3b goes, we are in a bit of a pickle. We can do what the Tigers did and go for offense over defense. We could move Tex back to 3b (his original position) and go for a 1b. Or we can just sift through the s*** that is out there. There are no 3bs on the FA market that look good. But David Freese looks like an option. The Yankees had been checking him out earlier, but that rumor was debunked. With the Cards flush with IF talent, though, it makes sense to revisit this as a possible buy low candidate. Just 2 short years ago, the guy was doing his best Scott Brosius impression while he destroyed the Rangers en route to a WS title. I'd really try to open that up again and make it happen. Freese will likely see a modest raise in arbitration, so a deal for him wouldn't hurt too badly. Freese: $5 mil

 

The second middle infielder might already be in house with Brendan Ryan. We also could bring in Jhonny Peralta, although I don't like his resurgence in a PED year. One guy I wouldn't mind taking a look at, though, is Rafael Furcal. The downsides are that he just turned 36, he missed all of 2013 due to TJS and that he hasn't been the real Rafael Furcal since 2010. That being said, he could probably be had for a pillow contract ($1 mil with escalators) and if he sucks, cut bait. But if he finds himself again after rehabbing, then he could be a big time steal. Even if he provides a better offensive backup option at SS than Ryan, he could be worth it. We need options. We don't necessarily need a perennial 30HR hitter, but we need options. Furcal will help us with that. Furcal: $1 mil

 

In terms of COF, that remains to be seen. I don't see it as a definite need. I would like to change the COF to a BAT. We need another bat. Be it as a DH or 1B/DH or 1B/RF/DH, so be it. Corey Hart fits that. As does Choo. I think Choo is going to get a deal that far outvalues his worth. But getting a guy like Hart on a pillow deal would be great. Only one problem, he seems to love beer country and is willing to take a discount to stay. Maybe if we are the only team to offer him a 1yr deal with a player option for a 2nd, then he might bite. If you produce, you can be a FA again. If you suck, feel free to leech off the teet one more year. I'd do a 1 yr $10 mil contract with a $10 mil player option for year 2. That would likely cause him to bite. Hart: $10 mil

 

If we did all that, and AFraud loses his appeal, our lineup will look like so

 

1. Gardner CF

2. Jeter SS

3. Phillips 2B

4. Teixeira 1B

5. McCann C

6. Hart DH

7. Soriano LF

8. Freese 3B

9. Ichiro/Wells RF

 

That lineup reminds me a lot of the ones from the mid 90s. No 40HR hitters or guys who will lead the league in batting. Just a solid 1-9 that will be hard to beat on a nightly basis.

[jacksonianmarch]

In terms of starters, the market sucks goat testicles. But I HIGHLY expect the Yankees to go after and get Masahiro Tanaka and throw him in as the #4 starter. The posting fee matters not for this discussion. He'd likely get a contract akin to Yu Darvish, 6yrs $60 mil. That leaves the needs for a #2 starter. And I think it will likely be the #2 we've had for 2 yrs now. Kuroda only wants NY, LA or Japan. LA says they aren't interested. Kuroda is cool with going year to year. The other #2s (Santana, Garza, Jimenez) all will require 5 yr deals fraught with risk. Go with the known commodity, even though he broke down late. Tanaka: $10 mil, Kuroda $16 mil

 

That would leave us with a rotation of

 

1. Sabathia

2. Kuroda

3. Nova

4. Tanaka

5. Phelps, Pineda, Warren

 

That rotation is good enough to win games in the AL East, especially if CC gets off the schneid.

 

That leaves relievers. Javier Lopez wants to play in NY. NY needs a lefty reliever. Make it happen for a reasonable AAV of around $3 mil. In terms of closers, Nathan is the sexier name, but Balfour is the better bet. Not everyone can be as effective as Mo was into his 40s. We shouldn't test fate and replace him with another 40 something reliever. Go for Balfour, he will likely cost around $7 mil per year. Balfour $7 mil, Lopez $3 mil

 

That leaves us with KRob and Balfour at the back end of the pen with Lopez as the loogy and Kelley, Claiborne, Betances, etc filling out the bridge. While not amazing, that pen could become something very, very stron

 

 

So JM's "fixes" will cost the Yankees $82.1 mil. That puts us at $195.125 mil if ARod isn't suspended at all. If ARod loses 50 games, it will bring us to $187.1 mil. Should we lose ARod for the season, it brings us to about $170 mil. Plenty of wiggle room for us at the break should that happen. It will also field a competitive team in 2014. It might not be a Red Sox 2013 team, but if things break right, it could be a title contending team. And if things break poorly, it could be a 85+ win team in it long enough to appease the masses while biding time to take off the financial shackles in 2015

Edited November 19, 2013 by jacksonianmarch

[jacksonianmarch]

The other thing it does is allow us to snap up 2 comp level picks while losing a 1st rounder by signing McCann. It also allows us to give our minor leaguers another year to produce something more than a reliever. Banuelos would be missed, but then again, he is coming off TJS. I am not sure who we'd move for Freese, but I bet it wouldn't be too heart rending. Allow our 3 first rounders from this yr to blossom while adding 2 more in 2014 and we could restock a system that had a really bad year.

[Palodios]

The key to the offseason revolves around Cano. They will have significantly more flexibility if he leaves, but they will also have a monstrous hole to fill in his place -- not to mention holes left by a first-ballot and a potentially late-ballot hall of famer.

 

I get the feeling that the Yankees will hold the line for next year. That #18 pick is the best they've had in a long time. Sign Cano, sign Tanaka, sign Garza, and one of the top tier closers, trade for a 3B, call it an offseason.

 

A rotation of Sabathia, Tanaka, Nova, Garza would be scary, especially with depth like Banuelos and Pineda waiting in the wings. The offense would be in the better part of second tier, but still very good. The bullpen would be solid, if not nostalgic for better days.

[jacksonianmarch]

I get the feeling Cashman will spread the wealth. It worked for the sox and aside from CC, Cashman has been against the big money deals. Hal orchestrated Rafael Soriano, Teixeira, and ARods deals. If Yankee fans gave him a year and Hal took his hands off, then we might get back to our glory days. It just likely won't be in 2014

[Palodios]

I get the feeling Cashman will spread the wealth. It worked for the sox and aside from CC, Cashman has been against the big money deals. Hal orchestrated Rafael Soriano, Teixeira, and ARods deals. If Yankee fans gave him a year and Hal took his hands off, then we might get back to our glory days. It just likely won't be in 2014

 

I just don't think the Yankees can keep bleeding stars. Last year, Posada, Swisher, Martin, and others. This year, Pettite, Rivera. Maybe Granderson, Kuroda, A-rod, Cano. The talent just isn't out there on the free agent market to replace those guys.

 

After next year, Jeter's gone. The Yankees will have to re-sign Robertson and Gardner, and those guys may very well get 15M AAV. Outside of Nova, the entire team will be mercenaries. The casual fans are going to get lost in the shuffle.

[Cocos Disciples]

This is really nitpicky, but you would really hit Phillips third? He's .271/.315/.412 the last two years.

 

Also this could be fun in NY: http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2013/8/28/4670402/brandon-phillips-interrupts-dusty-bakers-presser-to-curse-out-reporter

[jacksonianmarch]

Pal, you're overstating a little bit. We lost posada, but not the posada of years past. His final two years were abysmal. We lost swisher, but we got Soriano and at least can replace his power and then some. I am advocating for a bunch of mercenary pickups in McCann, Phillips, Tanaka, etc. I want to bring back Kuroda. I'd like to see Balfour here. There is no way in hell Gardner gets $15 mil AAV, he's Michael Bourne with a lesser hit tool. He'll be an $8-$10 mil AAV. With our depth in MiLB relief pitching, we can let KRob go after this yr. But part of what we need to see is minor league progress. Our farm had a legendary season in 2011. We had a below average year in 2012 and an abysmal and unlucky year in 2013. I have a feeling come 2015, we'll have some kids ready to step in, especially in the OF. Regardless, we need to bring in some talent this offseason, and we will

[User Name]

When the farm does good, it's legendary, when it sucks, it's unlucky. Lol.

[jacksonianmarch]

2011 was a hit on all cylinders season. I hadn't seen one like it. It seemed like every player in the top 50 had a solid year. 2012 was an uneven year with a bunch of injuries and some ineffectiveness. 2013 was horrendous. I have a feeling luck played into it. But looking at the 2013 top 50 over on scout.com, out of the top 20, 14 either had career worst years or were significantly injured. That's not just underperformance, that is a combo of s*** luck and underperformance. I doubt we see a year like that again

[jete02fan]

@ username...Jax also used the word abysmal...meaning results-wise...IMO the unlucky part was IRT players at the upper levels(where the Yanks needed them the most) couldn't stay healthy for nothing...as a whole, there's pretty much no denying our minor league seasons were awful

[jete02fan]

@ username...Jax also used the word abysmal...meaning results-wise...IMO the unlucky part was IRT players at the upper levels(where the Yanks needed them the most) couldn't stay healthy for nothing...as a whole, there's pretty much no denying our minor league seasons were awful

pretty much in lockstep with the ML level

[User Name]

@ username...Jax also used the word abysmal...meaning results-wise...IMO the unlucky part was IRT players at the upper levels(where the Yanks needed them the most) couldn't stay healthy for nothing...as a whole, there's pretty much no denying our minor league seasons were awful

 

Relax, i'm just busting his balls.

[jete02fan]

Relax, i'm just busting his balls.

ah, i hear ya...

[User Name]

I gotta use some more smileys all up in this bitch. I've gotten into some trouble lately because my humor is misconstrued as aggression.

[Bellhorn04]

Indications are now that the A-Rod fiasco could drag on well past December, totally f***ing up the Yankees payroll budgeting for 2014. They may just have to operate on the assumption they'll be paying him this year.

[Palodios]

Between A-rod, and all the stalling on the posting system, the Yankees have a lot of waiting to do. That being said, they're just one bored owner away from signing Cano, Tanaka, McCann and Garza and calling it an offseason so I wouldn't count them out yet.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Yankees are dragged into December, a lot of FAs will be dragged into December as well. It always behooves the players to have the Yankees involved in negotations, even if said player has no interest in putting on pinstripes. The FA market will follow NY, you just watch

[Palodios]

If the Yankees are dragged into December, a lot of FAs will be dragged into December as well. It always behooves the players to have the Yankees involved in negotations, even if said player has no interest in putting on pinstripes. The FA market will follow NY, you just watch

 

If players get fair offers that they like, they might not turn them down while anticipating monster offers. Players that wait till January/February hurt their own market.

[pinstripezac]

If the Yankees are dragged into December, a lot of FAs will be dragged into December as well. It always behooves the players to have the Yankees involved in negotations, even if said player has no interest in putting on pinstripes. The FA market will follow NY, you just watch

while there is some truth there

 

there was a lot more truth there a few yrs ago

 

not just the 189 talk

 

but there is so much money out there from other teams

 

 

as far as the arod mess goes

 

I think the yanks will act on what the arbitrator rules

 

IMO the odds of the court overuling the arbitrator are slim to none

Edited November 21, 2013 by pinstripezac

[jacksonianmarch]

There is more money out there. But if they wanted to, the Yankees could outspend everyone in baseball, including LA. Eventually, they will once again

[Bellhorn04]

Here are some 2014 payroll AAV numbers for the Yankees:

 

Guaranteed deals: A-Rod, Sabathia, Tex, McCann, Jeter, Soriano, Wells - total 114 million

Arbitration eligible - Robertson, Gardner etc. - estimated total 18 million

40 man roster, benefits etc. - estimated total 22 million

 

That's approx. 154 million. So if they really intend to get under the 189 million, they have about 35 million allotted for Cano, the rotation etc.

Unless of course A-Rod's suspension holds up, which means it's about 63 million. Maybe they are counting on this.

[Station 13]

I don't think the Yankees care much for the luxury tax. They lost like a lot of ticket sales this season, as well as TV viewing. That can turn around by spending on hot ticket items. If they trot this 2013 squad on the field in 2014 they will lose more revenues, so to them it's f*** the lux tax and go out and spend.

[Meh]

If the Yankees are dragged into December, a lot of FAs will be dragged into December as well. It always behooves the players to have the Yankees involved in negotations, even if said player has no interest in putting on pinstripes. The FA market will follow NY, you just watch

 

What do you think Balfour gets?

[seabeachfred]

I don't think the Yankees care much for the luxury tax. They lost like a lot of ticket sales this season, as well as TV viewing. That can turn around by spending on hot ticket items. If they trot this 2013 squad on the field in 2014 they will lose more revenues, so to them it's f*** the lux tax and go out and spend.

 

Just keep your eyes on them Station. I think they are going to make a full court press for Jacoby Ellsbury. You heard it here first.

[jacksonianmarch]

Balfour probably gets 3 yrs $21 mil

[marklmw]

Just keep your eyes on them Station. I think they are going to make a full court press for Jacoby Ellsbury. You heard it here first.

Come on Fred ... I called Ell's in pinstripes a long long time ago. It makes perfect sense. I also said that Ell's will hit 20 HR next season and should he play with the NYY my prediction becomes that much more doable.

[redsoxrules]

Yankee's now making Beltran #1 priority. That's great but I'm surprised their not making any moves for pitching.

They can add all the bats they want but if they dont shake up the picthing staff their f***ed again next year.

[Palodios]

Yankees apparently setting their eyes on Beltran as their first priority right now. Smart move -- Beltran makes much more sense with the cost of a 2nd round pick than a 1st rounder.

[yankees228]

Well Beltran has been trying to sign with the Yankees each time he was a free agent. I guess he'll finally get his wish. Would've preferred him in 2005 (or even 2012), but oh well.