2014 Roster Projections

[User Name]

So, who is available and what is the cost to improve on Nava? I really don't see anyone out there, but maybe I am missing something.

 

You are missing the fact that, as stated several times above, this is not about Nava. Nava platoons with Gomes and backs up at 1B. What you want is a guy who can back up CF and RF. There is no overlap.

[User Name]

You have Carp, Gomes, Nava, Vic, JBJ; probably we need an extra arm… but IMO We'll be fine.

 

Carp, Nava and Gomes can't play CF or RF. If Victorino is out and JBJ is struggling, you are screwed. The OF situation is very unbalanced.

[iortiz]

Carp, Nava and Gomes can't play CF or RF. If Victorino is out and JBJ is struggling, you are screwed. The OF situation is very unbalanced.

 

IMO they will be fine. On the other hand an extra arm would be nice.

[lospunchados]

The back up plan is nava in right, victorino in center. If there is a need for a long period of time to replace someone and they are really concerned with the defense the can try Brentz or Hassan. I understand everyone wanting depth but that is depth. The redsox have a 40 man with a lot of talent and getting someone to come in would require someone accepting to not be on the 40 man roster and just be in the minors waiting for some failure or an injury, then releasing someone on the 40 man to bring them up. Maybe Brentz or Hassan can fill in if something goes wrong. It's so terrible that our biggest lineup problem is if Victorino gets injured or bradley sucks we have a below average defensive right fielder.

[Spitball]

You are missing the fact that, as stated several times above, this is not about Nava. Nava platoons with Gomes and backs up at 1B. What you want is a guy who can back up CF and RF. There is no overlap.

 

I do understand, but who?

[reYoukilis]

So, who is available and what is the cost to improve on Nava? I really don't see anyone out there, but maybe I am missing something.

I didnt see much either other than my aforementioned possibility of Juan Pierre, a pick I still dont discount because the back-up cant be so good that he's more valuable than Bradley. Or can he, maybe we should get someone better than Bradley and have Bradley be the back-up. Or get a RF'r like Nelson Cruz and have Victorino and Bradley platoon.

[User Name]

The point is finding alternatives to ever playing Nava and his -14 UZR/150 in RF. Hassan is an alternative since he hits from the right side and can play all over the OF and 1B.

[Spitball]

I didnt see much either other than my aforementioned possibility of Juan Pierre, a pick I still dont discount because the back-up cant be so good that he's more valuable than Bradley. Or can he, maybe we should get someone better than Bradley and have Bradley be the back-up. Or get a RF'r like Nelson Cruz and have Victorino and Bradley platoon.

 

Maybe, but I don't know about Cruz going forward without PED. Pierre would not be an improvement over Nava imho.

[User Name]

I didnt see much either other than my aforementioned possibility of Juan Pierre, a pick I still dont discount because the back-up cant be so good that he's more valuable than Bradley. Or can he, maybe we should get someone better than Bradley and have Bradley be the back-up. Or get a RF'r like Nelson Cruz and have Victorino and Bradley platoon.

 

Pierre is terrible, and can't hit lefties. Cruz can't play a good RF, is old and is going to command a ton of money, not to mention that a platoon of Victorino and Bradley makes no sense. They'd be better off keeping Hassan a phone call away or signing an utility guy who can play some RF.

[User Name]

Maybe, but I don't know about Cruz going forward without PED. Pierre would not be an improvement over Nava imho.

 

I don't understand your assumption that this has anything to do with Nava. It doesn't.

[Spitball]

The point is finding alternatives to ever playing Nava and his -14 UZR/150 in RF. Hassan is an alternative since he hits from the right side and can play all over the OF and 1B.

 

Hassan played 14 games in center in 2010 and not since.

[User Name]

I do understand, but who?

 

Alex Hassan down at the farm, Reed Johnsonn, Laynce Nix. Just sign some guys to AAA and call 'em up if need be.

[User Name]

Hassan played 14 games in center in 2010 and not since.

 

But he can play RF with Victorino moving to center.

[Spitball]

Alex Hassan down at the farm, Reed Johnsonn, Laynce Nix. Just sign some guys to AAA and call 'em up if need be.

 

Ah geez! You have said a lot here in other posts that have nothing to do with what I am saying. I am not advocating Cruz nor Pierre. Reed Johnson is 36 years-old, and Laynce Nix is not a center fielder. Nava is a better option than either. I have no problem with Hassan on the farm, but he is not a centerfielder.

[lospunchados]

Defensive WAR is far from perfect and isn't the end all be all. Nava is not a great defender, but is he adequate enough to play 15-25 games in right if needed, i think so. And if not then Hassan and Brentz have played right. Victorino can shift to center for a while. Is it worth getting a below average hitter and forcing them onto the roster in case something goes wrong? How many teams right now would have enough depth to replace to above average defenders at a field like Fenway?

[rjortiz]

Defensive WAR is far from perfect and isn't the end all be all. Nava is not a great defender, but is he adequate enough to play 15-25 games in right if needed, i think so. And if not then Hassan and Brentz have played right. Victorino can shift to center for a while. Is it worth getting a below average hitter and forcing them onto the roster in case something goes wrong? How many teams right now would have enough depth to replace to above average defenders at a field like Fenway?

 

The Padres come to mind. Denforia would be a nice trade target if an injury happens.

[SeanJohn93]

I believe Cruz would cost the Sox a draft pick as well.

[rjortiz]

That's going to be the worst contract of the offseason when he signs.

[User Name]

Ah geez! You have said a lot here in other posts that have nothing to do with what I am saying. I am not advocating Cruz nor Pierre. Reed Johnson is 36 years-old, and Laynce Nix is not a center fielder. Nava is a better option than either. I have no problem with Hassan on the farm, but he is not a centerfielder.

 

That wasn't responding to you. And in RF, he isn't. That's why he's part of the LF platoon. He also can't hit lefties, and most likely, JBJ will struggle with some of the tougher lefties.

 

Defensive WAR is far from perfect and isn't the end all be all. Nava is not a great defender, but is he adequate enough to play 15-25 games in right if needed, i think so. And if not then Hassan and Brentz have played right. Victorino can shift to center for a while. Is it worth getting a below average hitter and forcing them onto the roster in case something goes wrong? How many teams right now would have enough depth to replace to above average defenders at a field like Fenway?

 

But it's the best available stat. He doesn't pass the eye test either, or the scouting report. Let's not kid ourselves, he's not adequate to play any games in RF, specially at Fenway. Notice how also most of the talk has been about getting a guy who can hit lefties well. That's because Nava can't hit lefties, Carp can't hit lefties, and JBJ is likely to have his share of struggles against them.

[Spitball]

That wasn't responding to you. And in RF, he isn't. That's why he's part of the LF platoon. He also can't hit lefties, and most likely, JBJ will struggle with some of the tougher lefties.

 

 

 

But it's the best available stat. He doesn't pass the eye test either, or the scouting report. Let's not kid ourselves, he's not adequate to play any games in RF, specially at Fenway. Notice how also most of the talk has been about getting a guy who can hit lefties well. That's because Nava can't hit lefties, Carp can't hit lefties, and JBJ is likely to have his share of struggles against them.

 

Lospunchados said it well, we are talking about depth. Nava is part of the left field platoon...but he also is part of the successful depth the Red Sox used to be the best team in baseball last year. Carp was part of that value because he freed Nava to be a substitute for injured Ellsbury and Victorino.

 

The Red Sox won 97 games last year with Nava starting 51 games in right field. Hopefully he won't have to play that many ever again, but last year serves as an indicator Nava can be a back-up with the Red Sox current personnel. Why add another outfielder that will rob from depth in other areas. Brentz or Hassan should be ready if needed in case of injury.

 

With Victorino and Gomes, I believe the Sox probably have enough right-handed bats in the outfield. Btw, I would like to see Bradley start out batting in the nine hole while he adjusts to major league baseball.

[User Name]

The Red Sox won 97 games in spite of having to use their platoon as regulars for a significant portion of the season. They managed to overcome this problem by having the best offense and one of the best rotations in baseball. The problem that you and others seem to be ignoring, is that the Sox will very likely have a downgraded offense for next season. Ellsbury is gone, Salty (lucky season aside) is gone, Napoli is unlikely to repeat his BABIP luck, Victorino is an injury risk, Ortiz is a year older, and both JBJ and XB are rookies who will have their ups and downs.

 

Because the lineup last year was much more established and you had a lot more pieces to pick up the slack, you could get away with having one of the worst OF defenses in the Majors when both Nava and Gomes played, as well as having three lineup members (Nava, Drew, Salty) who were completely and utterly unable to avoid making outs against left handed pitching. Next year, the Red Sox won't have such a luxury, and that's why what some view as "merely depth" will become "they should have addressed this in the off-season" as soon as Murphy's Law strikes during the 2014 season.

 

We have beaten this subject to death, however, so let's just agree to disagree. I say they should be guarded with another OF guy who can handle the stick against lefties (like Chris Denorfia) you say they don't.

[Dojji]

BTW, Doji said that JBJ's ceiling is De Jesus, didn't he? LOL!… he is the floor man!

 

I'm sure they thought that with Dejesus. He always had the talent to do more than he did.

 

JBJ's game is going to be a lot like that of Dejesus. Hopefully a little better all around, but a similar type or style of play is what I expect. And let's not forget that at the top of his game Dejesus was a very solid CF.

Edited December 29, 2013 by Dojji

[Northern Star]

Peavy isnot regaining any sort of CY form. It's not happening.

 

If Buchholzcould stay healthy, i'd want him around, but he simply can't stay on the field.

 

Which begs the question why would Tampa Bay be giving up Myers for him? And to a division rival as well.

[User Name]

I'm sure they thought that with Dejesus. He always had the talent to do more than he did.

 

JBJ's game is going to be a lot like that of Dejesus. Hopefully a little better all around, but a similar type or style of play is what I expect. And let's not forget that at the top of his game Dejesus was a very solid CF.

 

DeJesus-type numbers with upper-echelon CF defense constitutes a four-win player at least. That would match, if not exceed, what Ellsbury is likely to do from here on out. Sign me up please.

[DirtDog]

The Red Sox won 97 games in spite of having to use their platoon as regulars for a significant portion of the season. They managed to overcome this problem by having the best offense and one of the best rotations in baseball. The problem that you and others seem to be ignoring, is that the Sox will very likely have a downgraded offense for next season. Ellsbury is gone, Salty (lucky season aside) is gone, Napoli is unlikely to repeat his BABIP luck, Victorino is an injury risk, Ortiz is a year older, and both JBJ and XB are rookies who will have their ups and downs.

 

Because the lineup last year was much more established and you had a lot more pieces to pick up the slack, you could get away with having one of the worst OF defenses in the Majors when both Nava and Gomes played, as well as having three lineup members (Nava, Drew, Salty) who were completely and utterly unable to avoid making outs against left handed pitching. Next year, the Red Sox won't have such a luxury, and that's why what some view as "merely depth" will become "they should have addressed this in the off-season" as soon as Murphy's Law strikes during the 2014 season.

 

We have beaten this subject to death, however, so let's just agree to disagree. I say they should be guarded with another OF guy who can handle the stick against lefties (like Chris Denorfia) you say they don't.

 

Do you just talk out of your ass, or do you actually research anything? I would hardly call Nava's .250/.310/.350 against lefties an "automatic out." There's a reason why a guy like Choo who "struggles against lefties" still got a massive contract. You don't see nearly as many lefties as you do righties. Over the course of a full season you can get away with this small sample and platoon that player.

 

As for your Denorfia example. Yes his defense is superior but he has a career .261/.317/.374 slash line against righties. Obviously he "Can't hit righties" by your ridiculous definition.

 

I'd rather have a guy who "can't hit lefties" than a guy who "can't hit righties."

[seabeachfred]

The Padres come to mind. Denforia would be a nice trade target if an injury happens.

 

Denorfia would be a near perfect fit for us.....with one little caveat. He does not play center field all that well, adequate at best when he does play out there which is not too often. He does mash left handed pitchers and for some reason the Padres kind of diss him, yet when he plays he seems to do well. He might be worth a look.

[User Name]

Do you just talk out of your ass, or do you actually research anything? I would hardly call Nava's .250/.310/.350 against lefties an "automatic out." There's a reason why a guy like Choo who "struggles against lefties" still got a massive contract. You don't see nearly as many lefties as you do righties. Over the course of a full season you can get away with this small sample and platoon that player.

 

As for your Denorfia example. Yes his defense is superior but he has a career .261/.317/.374 slash line against righties. Obviously he "Can't hit righties" by your ridiculous definition.

 

I'd rather have a guy who "can't hit lefties" than a guy who "can't hit righties."

 

You're the one who's clearly "talking out his ass". Do you know what OPS is? Because a .660 OPS is right around replacement level, in other words, pure suck. .310 OBP and sub .400 slugging? Pass. Comparing Choo to Nava is laughable at best btw.

 

Also, you clearly haven't read what i've written. I am not advocating for anyone to replace Nava. I'm saying they need a backup guy who can hit lefties in case JBJ struggles and Victorino gets injured. And because he can't hit righties, is why he would be deployed in a bench role or platoon situation.

 

Let me say this again in slowly digestible bits: Nava is part of the LF platoon. Getting someone to back up CF-RF has nothing to do with Nava playing, since he's one of the best bats we have against righties. Learn to read.

Edited December 29, 2013 by User Name?

[User Name]

To further illustrate the point my erudite friend is challenging me on, here's how the advanced metrics profiled Nava's work against lefties last season:

 

OPS: .647, ISO: .084 (!), wOBA: .288, wRC+: 75 (!). All of this with a slightly above-average .315 BABIP. All of those (except, ironically, his BABIP numbers) are below league average. But hey, i just pull this s*** out of my ass!

 

Tell me again how Nava is anything but awful against lefties. That's why Gomes was brought in as the other half of the left-field platoon. Is any more research needed?

[SoxSport]

The Red Sox strength last year was their depth in the field, and their pitching. Farrell used his depth very effectively, and he and Nieves were excellent with the pitching. Expect the same platooning approach this year. They will be stronger at catcher with Ross back the whole season, and another veteran in JP. And stronger at closer, I might add. Uehara wasn't discovered until the 2nd half last year. Plus they have Mujica.

 

I don't expect they are interested in Cruz. Not strong enough defensively in RF, and too expensive. Unlike the Yankees, the Red Sox are serious about holding the surtax line. Mariners look like a good bet for him. But watch out for Starbrenner the vacuum cleaner. He's out to get everybody.

 

The Sox major question is what to do in CF and SS. I suspect the FO wants to go with the kids, JBJ and X. Products of their drafts. Farrell has the hots for Drew. We'll see what happens. They still will probably add an outfielder with speed and defense. Berry might be the guy. He did well down the stretch.

[Spitball]

We have beaten this subject to death, however, so let's just agree to disagree. I say they should be guarded with another OF guy who can handle the stick against lefties (like Chris Denorfia) you say they don't.

 

I agree, but I would not be against acquiring someone like Denorfia. He is a versatile role player with on base skills against left handers. I can't imagine why the Padres would want to move him, though. I have advocated adding him in the past and have liked him since he surfaced with Cincinnati.

 

I wouldn't mind his addition if he could be fit into the roster puzzle and not cost much in return.

Edited December 30, 2013 by Spitball