2014 Roster Projections

[Palodios]

There are cheaper options there that would still be good options:

 

McClouth, Morse who can also fill in at 1b, Delmon Young even though he's not that great an option, Grady Sizemore might benefit from a change of scenery, etc.

 

One of the most intriguing options to me is Brennan Boesch. He's only 28, and the Yankees are unlikely to resign him given their potential outfield depth now. Not to mention he could be very cheap.

 

Maybe cheaper doesn't mean better. Last year, I was comparing career stats, and it looked like Victorino was just as good as guys like BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, and Ellsbury, and he was very close to those guys statistically.

 

Granderson is this year's Victorino. A .830 career OPS in center is a big deal, but even more so with that 40 HR bat. He makes the team much more flexible defensively, and could probably be worth as little at 1/3 to 1/2 the contract Ellsbury just received.

[Palodios]

Good point on Dempster. I can certainly see the Sox getting a deal done involving Dempster, Middlebrooks, and a prospect. The prospect would be heavily dependent on the money eaten by the Dodgers. If they take Kemp down to a 15mm AAV deal, I wouldn't be opposed to adding Ranaudo to the mix. If not, it's more of a Lavarnway type deal.

 

I don't see the Red Sox trading players who make holes. Losing Middlebrooks mean they need to outbid the Cano-losers for Drew, and I don't think that's what they want to do.

Edited December 5, 2013 by Palodios

[Palodios]

Also --

 

Ethier versus righties -- .294 .394 .460 .854

Nava versus righties -- .322 .411 .484 .894

 

Why sign another slow left fielder who is only good as part of a platoon?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Maybe cheaper doesn't mean better. Last year, I was comparing career stats, and it looked like Victorino was just as good as guys like BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, and Ellsbury, and he was very close to those guys statistically.

 

Granderson is this year's Victorino. A .830 career OPS in center is a big deal, but even more so with that 40 HR bat. He makes the team much more flexible defensively, and could probably be worth as little at 1/3 to 1/2 the contract Ellsbury just received.

 

If you're only getting an .830 OPS from a 40 HR bat, you're getting a ton of empty power.

 

Granderson's OBP over the past 5 years: .327, .324, .364, .319, .317. Overall .333 OBP. Plus a K rate over 28% for each of the past 2 seasons. And his defense is below average.

 

And I didn't even get into the fact that a ton of his HR's would be fly outs at Fenway.

 

Pass on Granderson, for me.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't see the Red Sox trading players who make holes. Losing Middlebrooks mean they need to outbid the Cano-losers for Drew, and I don't think that's what they want to do.

 

Given the draft pick associated with Drew, I don't think they'd have a problem outbidding, and I also think they'd make the Kemp move after locking up Drew.

 

Not to mention that if they don't get Drew, they can always sign a guy to play 3B while Cecchini develops.

 

Oliver (on FG) projects Cecchini to hit .268/.351/.394, 16 SB. ZiPS projects him at .266/.342/394, 24 SB.

 

A lot of these projection systems believe strongly in Cecchini. If you trade for Kemp, give up WMB, and can't sign Drew, then you can find a filler for 3B pretty easily.

[marklmw]

Good point on Dempster. I can certainly see the Sox getting a deal done involving Dempster, Middlebrooks, and a prospect. The prospect would be heavily dependent on the money eaten by the Dodgers. If they take Kemp down to a 15mm AAV deal, I wouldn't be opposed to adding Ranaudo to the mix. If not, it's more of a Lavarnway type deal.

 

Bill James is predicting a 30HR season from WMB in 2014. 30HR is a rare commodity ... do you really want to trade WMB 30 HR and a very good contract to the Dodgers for the oft injured Kemp's 30 HR and an expensive contract even with the Dodgers absorbing part of it? And on top of this you give them Ranaudo ... did you not notice Ranaudo's body of work in 2013? Our pitching staff is aging ... our numbers 3, 4, & 5 are not spring chickens. If we manage to extend Lester ... a big if considering since we were unable to extend our best player after winning a WS. We need to hold onto our pitching prospects ... Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo, Doubront, Webster, Workman. I need not point out the obvious with Buchholz. We can only hope that 3 out of 6 of the players that I mentioned can work out. Depth at pitching is a strength right now and with pitching if you are not careful our position can change on a dime. I would rather pick up the entire Kemp contract as a salary dump for the Dodgers than give up a top pitching prospect. IMO ... If James has WMB projected to hit 30 HR's then it would be wise to hold onto him.

[marklmw]

If you're only getting an .830 OPS from a 40 HR bat, you're getting a ton of empty power.

 

Granderson's OBP over the past 5 years: .327, .324, .364, .319, .317. Overall .333 OBP. Plus a K rate over 28% for each of the past 2 seasons. And his defense is below average.

 

And I didn't even get into the fact that a ton of his HR's would be fly outs at Fenway.

 

Pass on Granderson, for me.

 

Great post.

[Palodios]

Given the draft pick associated with Drew, I don't think they'd have a problem outbidding, and I also think they'd make the Kemp move after locking up Drew.

 

Not to mention that if they don't get Drew, they can always sign a guy to play 3B while Cecchini develops.

 

Oliver (on FG) projects Cecchini to hit .268/.351/.394, 16 SB. ZiPS projects him at .266/.342/394, 24 SB.

 

A lot of these projection systems believe strongly in Cecchini. If you trade for Kemp, give up WMB, and can't sign Drew, then you can find a filler for 3B pretty easily.

 

"Filler" at 3B? You get blinded by talent sometimes -- putting "filler" at a position would probably end up be a loss of 4 WAR on a gamble that Kemp stays healthy.

 

Also, Drew's biggest bidder is the Yankees, who are already onto their third round draft pick and won't care.

[marklmw]

Also --

 

Ethier versus righties -- .294 .394 .460 .854

Nava versus righties -- .322 .411 .484 .894

 

Why sign another slow left fielder who is only good as part of a platoon?

 

No love for Nava by many of our own

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bill James is predicting a 30HR season from WMB in 2014. 30HR is a rare commodity ... do you really want to trade WMB 30 HR and a very good contract to the Dodgers for the oft injured Kemp's 30 HR and an expensive contract even with the Dodgers absorbing part of it? And on top of this you give them Ranaudo ... did you not notice Ranaudo's body of work in 2013? Our pitching staff is aging ... our numbers 3, 4, & 5 are not spring chickens. If we manage to extend Lester ... a big if considering since we were unable to extend our best player after winning a WS. We need to hold onto our pitching prospects ... Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo, Doubront, Webster, Workman. I need not point out the obvious with Buchholz. We can only hope that 3 out of 6 of the players that I mentioned can work out. Depth at pitching is a strength right now and with pitching if you are not careful our position can change on a dime. I would rather pick up the entire Kemp contract as a salary dump for the Dodgers than give up a top pitching prospect. IMO ... If James has WMB projected to hit 30 HR's then it would be wise to hold onto him.

 

Man, I just don't know about WMB. That seems like an aggressive projection but at the same time he hit, what, 32 in 169 games so far? So it's not out of the question by any means, plus he was hurt for a while last year before being demoted.

 

You bring up a good point. A 30 HR bat is a commodity. I'll have to think about it. It's a tough choice. Do you want the empty power, or do you want the very strong OBP with gap power and SB (Cecchini). Both players are question marks right now for development reasons.

[User Name]

Bill James is predicting a 30HR season from WMB in 2014. 30HR is a rare commodity ... do you really want to trade WMB 30 HR and a very good contract to the Dodgers for the oft injured Kemp's 30 HR and an expensive contract even with the Dodgers absorbing part of it? And on top of this you give them Ranaudo ... did you not notice Ranaudo's body of work in 2013? Our pitching staff is aging ... our numbers 3, 4, & 5 are not spring chickens. If we manage to extend Lester ... a big if considering since we were unable to extend our best player after winning a WS. We need to hold onto our pitching prospects ... Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo, Doubront, Webster, Workman. I need not point out the obvious with Buchholz. We can only hope that 3 out of 6 of the players that I mentioned can work out. Depth at pitching is a strength right now and with pitching if you are not careful our position can change on a dime. I would rather pick up the entire Kemp contract as a salary dump for the Dodgers than give up a top pitching prospect. IMO ... If James has WMB projected to hit 30 HR's then it would be wise to hold onto him.

 

Pedroia got extended last season, so our best player did get an extension. As for the rest of your post, i wouldn't trade WMB and Ranaudo for a guy who truly deserves the "oft-injured" title either.

[User Name]

Man, I just don't know about WMB. That seems like an aggressive projection but at the same time he hit, what, 32 in 169 games so far? So it's not out of the question by any means, plus he was hurt for a while last year before being demoted.

 

You bring up a good point. A 30 HR bat is a commodity. I'll have to think about it. It's a tough choice. Do you want the empty power, or do you want the very strong OBP with gap power and SB (Cecchini). Both players are question marks right now for development reasons.

 

What exactly do you mean by "empty power"?

[marklmw]

Pedroia got extended last season, so our best player did get an extension. As for the rest of your post, i wouldn't trade WMB and Ranaudo for a guy who truly deserves the "oft-injured" title either.

 

Perhaps I should have used the term 'one of our best players' ... my point being is that a Lester extension is no lock.

[SoxFanForsyth]

What exactly do you mean by "empty power"?

 

Good power, OBP ~ .300-.310, Salty-esque.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Here are Bill James projections for the Red Sox:

 

Player OBP OPS HRs

Jacoby Ellsbury .348 .774 12

David Ortiz .384 .914 30

Shane Victorino .336 .751 14

Jonny Gomes .336 .769 16

Stephen Drew .332 .730 12

Dustin Pedroia .371 .814 14

Mike Napoli .348 .819 26

Daniel Nava .377 .812 11

Will Middlebrooks .310 .800 32

Jackie Bradley Jr. .329 .749 15

Xander Bogaerts .357 .807 19

[Bellhorn04]

If you're only getting an .830 OPS from a 40 HR bat, you're getting a ton of empty power.

 

An .830 OPS is not empty power. You can't maintain an .830 OPS without being a well-above-average offensive producer.

[User Name]

An .830 OPS is not empty power. You can't maintain an .830 OPS without being a well-above-average offensive producer.

 

That's why i asked him the question.

[Palodios]

Also SFF -- why criticize Granderson's defense when it is pretty clear UZR does not want anything to do with Kemp in centerfield?

[User Name]

I'm not particularly fond of either Granderson nor Kemp, however, i don't see how SFF can criticize Granderson then turn around and pine for Kemp. I don't get it.

[mvp 78]

What's the point in bringing in Grandy's lefty bat for CF? It will only take time away from JBJ. Put him in LF and it takes away Nava.

[Palodios]

What's the point in bringing in Grandy's lefty bat for CF? It will only take time away from JBJ. Put him in LF and it takes away Nava.

 

Granderson makes more sense if the Red Sox don't bring back Nap. He adds flexibility, giving the Red Sox 3 guys who can play CF and RF at Fenway... which we saw last year to be pretty crucial. Nava moves to 1st, and the Red Sox need to find a RH platoon for him.

[SoxSport]

I don't like Drew's bat in the lineup--not with X and MBrooks on the left side. I think they have to sign Nap at 1B, and maybe a rightfielder.

They are 2 deep in CF with Vic and Bradley. The cheapest option might be Ethier. Kemp has a terrible contract--even if LA eats 20-30% of it. Plus he is coming off multiple surgeries. I figure they can eat some of Dempster and deal him for Ethier--the Dodgers eating some of his 4 yr contract down to $10-12 M per. Choo is MF Boras--forget him. Cruz can't play RF in Fenway. Grandy is also good, but James may not like him.

 

Anybody know James projections on Grandy and Ethier this year? Those two may offer the most value.

[SoxFanForsyth]

An .830 OPS is not empty power. You can't maintain an .830 OPS without being a well-above-average offensive producer.

 

Well to be fair, my point was that Granderson gives you no OBP, and I certainly don't think you're going to get an .830 OPS from him, considering he's had an OPS over .811 exactly 1 time over the past 5 years.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm not particularly fond of either Granderson nor Kemp, however, i don't see how SFF can criticize Granderson then turn around and pine for Kemp. I don't get it.

 

I think Kemp is a significantly better player than Granderson. Granderson has had 1 season where he posted elite numbers. Kemp's wRC+ has been over 145 in 2 of the last 3 years. In Granderson's best year, he posted a 146 wRC+, which is what Kemp posted in 2012.

 

Over the past 3 years, which encompasses both Granderson and Kemp's best year, Kemp has hit .306/.375/.532, all while playing in a pitchers park division with a home field that is awful to hitters.

 

Over the past 3 years, Granderson has hit .244/.338/.504, while playing in the most left handed hitters park in baseball and a division that loves LHH with Camden and YS.

 

There's a huge difference between their talent levels.

[User Name]

Yeah let's conveniently forget that the last two seasons he's played 179 games and hit for an .834 OPS. He also has a massive contract, making him not only a gamble if traded for, but an expensive one. He also doesn't have the "s*** luck" factor that Ellsbury did when accounting for his injuries. All in all, i don't see it.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's a possible buy low candidate who you'd be buying at a large contractual obligation. If you traded for Kemp two years ago, you would have had to send Bogaerts, Owens, Ranaudo and your first born to get him. Now, send over one good prospect, another middling one and eat a whole lot of dough and you can have him. Kemp is a chronically injured guy who keep pulling, tweaking, straining, etc and he seems to never come back healthy or he comes back too soon and misses more time. Granderson makes absolutely no sense for Boston. I watched the guy and enjoyed many of his homeruns. Many which would have landed in the gloves of RFers had they been hit in Fenway. He's hit 61 of his 108 HRs (56%) between 2010 and 2012 at home. He also had a split of .872 vs .815 OPS home vs road over the last 3 years. He's a good player outside of Yankee Stadium. He is borderline elite in Yankee stadium. His defense in CF sucks. His D in LF is good. Getting him for ages 33-35 at $15 mil per yr in Fenway as a CFer wouldn't be a smart bargain.

[marklmw]

Man, I just don't know about WMB. That seems like an aggressive projection but at the same time he hit, what, 32 in 169 games so far? So it's not out of the question by any means, plus he was hurt for a while last year before being demoted.

 

You bring up a good point. A 30 HR bat is a commodity. I'll have to think about it. It's a tough choice. Do you want the empty power, or do you want the very strong OBP with gap power and SB (Cecchini). Both players are question marks right now for development reasons.

 

Because of James projection of 32 HR's for WMB next season we have no choice but to give him the opportunity. Cecchini is still a season or two away from the bigs. Much can happen within this time. If WMB performs as James predicts we should all be elated. Put the James projection of Bogaert's and his 19 HR's and we are adding significant offensive production over our 2013 numbers for those 2 positions. Adding Bogaerts and a productive WMB full time to our team in 2014 and we will be adding the equivalent of 2 FA's. More than enough to compensate for the replacement of Ellsbury with JBJ.

[marklmw]

It's a possible buy low candidate who you'd be buying at a large contractual obligation. If you traded for Kemp two years ago, you would have had to send Bogaerts, Owens, Ranaudo and your first born to get him. Now, send over one good prospect, another middling one and eat a whole lot of dough and you can have him. Kemp is a chronically injured guy who keep pulling, tweaking, straining, etc and he seems to never come back healthy or he comes back too soon and misses more time. Granderson makes absolutely no sense for Boston. I watched the guy and enjoyed many of his homeruns. Many which would have landed in the gloves of RFers had they been hit in Fenway. He's hit 61 of his 108 HRs (56%) between 2010 and 2012 at home. He also had a split of .872 vs .815 OPS home vs road over the last 3 years. He's a good player outside of Yankee Stadium. He is borderline elite in Yankee stadium. His defense in CF sucks. His D in LF is good. Getting him for ages 33-35 at $15 mil per yr in Fenway as a CFer wouldn't be a smart bargain.

 

I am not getting this post ... you like Kemp or Grandy for the Sox.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yeah let's conveniently forget that the last two seasons he's played 179 games and hit for an .834 OPS. He also has a massive contract, making him not only a gamble if traded for, but an expensive one. He also doesn't have the "s*** luck" factor that Ellsbury did when accounting for his injuries. All in all, i don't see it.

 

I've said this whole time that he's an injury risk, but Granderson was also injured last year and saw a big drop off in power because of the location of the injury (forearm/wrist). Those injuries zap power just as much as Kemp's does. What you look at now, with both coming into 2014 healthy, is their talent level when healthy, and I don't think that is even close.

 

Saying that Kemp had an .834 OPS over the past 2 seasons is misleading given that 1. he had a .906 OPS in 2012 and 2. when he came back from his injury in September, he hit .314 with an .870 OPS.

 

Granderson, over the past 2 years, has posted a .788 OPS, and in neither year individually did he sniff an .834 OPS, much less a .906 OPS.

[marklmw]

I've said this whole time that he's an injury risk, but Granderson was also injured last year and saw a big drop off in power because of the location of the injury (forearm/wrist). Those injuries zap power just as much as Kemp's does. What you look at now, with both coming into 2014 healthy, is their talent level when healthy, and I don't think that is even close.

 

Saying that Kemp had an .834 OPS over the past 2 seasons is misleading given that 1. he had a .906 OPS in 2012 and 2. when he came back from his injury in September, he hit .314 with an .870 OPS.

 

Granderson, over the past 2 years, has posted a .788 OPS, and in neither year individually did he sniff an .834 OPS, much less a .906 OPS.

 

Kemp is an option in Left but can also be at 1B should the Sox not sign Nap's