2014 Roster Projections

[BornToRun]

There is no evidence that Cano's health is going to break down in the next 8 years. Ortiz is carrying how much greater body fat than Cano and Papi is still putting up the numbers. Cano is in very good shape. Miggy has never been in top shape. I will bet a steak dinner that Cano will be putting up Ortiz type numbers 8 years from now.

 

Ortiz has hardly had to play the field his entire career.

[marklmw]

Ortiz has hardly had to play the field his entire career.

We are talking 1B initially and can transition to DH. 1B is a 20 yard jog from the dugout.

[marklmw]

You honestly think signing a guy who to an 8 year contract worth 200 million that is going to take him almost into his 40's isn't a huge mistake?

 

Cano played 2013 at age 30 ... he will be 38 when he finishes ... younger then when Ortiz finishes. Being in the AL and having a DH makes signing Cano all the more logical.

Edited November 29, 2013 by marklmw

[marklmw]

Cano can probably play 3B for 2 to 3 seasons then 1B for 3 to 4 seasons ... and then DH if it comes to that. I think that he would make a nice 1B for the full 8 years.

[BornToRun]

Cano can probably play 3B for 2 to 3 seasons then 1B for 3 to 4 seasons ... and then DH if it comes to that. I think that he would make a nice 1B for the full 8 years.

 

He loses value as a first baseman. His offense at 1B would be very good, not great by positional standards. Also, he's spent his entire career in the field playing a physical demanding position. There is a very good chance that he breaks down over the length of his next contract. In fact, I guarantee that he will fall off at some point in the not too distant future.

[Bellhorn04]

One of the biggest problems with this idea is that it requires outbidding the richest team in baseball for a player who has more value to them than he does to us.

[marklmw]

He loses value as a first baseman. His offense at 1B would be very good, not great by positional standards. Also, he's spent his entire career in the field playing a physical demanding position. There is a very good chance that he breaks down over the length of his next contract. In fact, I guarantee that he will fall off at some point in the not too distant future.

 

If that is the case why did we just extend Pedroia to age 38? Cano moves to 1B and lives there happily ever after ... well for 8 seasons anyway. The guy can hit. He might be a better hitter than Ortiz.

[marklmw]

One of the biggest problems with this idea is that it requires outbidding the richest team in baseball for a player who has more value to them than he does to us.

 

Bellhorn ... stay with me my man. The premise is that the Yankees will not pay Cano 200M ... if we set our limit at 200M and our FO is comfortable with that we will not be bidding against the Yankees. If the Yankees end up going higher then end of story. My idea is that if Boston can acquire Cano for 200/8 we should do it. We are in a much better position than NY to sign Cano at 200M

[Bellhorn04]

If that is the case why did we just extend Pedroia to age 38? Cano moves to 1B and lives there happily ever after ... well for 8 seasons anyway. The guy can hit. He might be a better hitter than Ortiz.

 

He's an excellent hitter, but he's not an Ortiz.

[marklmw]

He's an excellent hitter, but he's not an Ortiz.

 

Yes he is. Pull up their numbers and compare side by side. Ortiz had some impressive HR seasons but in all likelihood Ortiz was Roiding at the time.

No one hits like Ortiz in the clutch however. That is true. Still not a reason not to sign Cano.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes he is. Pull up their numbers and compare side by side. Ortiz had some impressive HR seasons but in all likelihood Ortiz was Roiding at the time.

 

I did compare. Ortiz's OPS+ is 139, Cano's is 125.

[BornToRun]

Pedroia is the face of the franchise along with Ortiz and was locked up for far less than what Cano will cost. The contract is also front loaded to protect us during a possible decline phase in the later years.

[marklmw]

I did compare. Ortiz's OPS+ is 139, Cano's is 125.

 

For which season .... is this his career average? Remember that Ortiz has been linked to roids and Cano .... never. You really need to adjust for those monster seasons

[marklmw]

Pedroia is the face of the franchise along with Ortiz and was locked up for far less than what Cano will cost. The contract is also front loaded to protect us during a possible decline phase in the later years.

 

BTR ... no doubt that we got a terrific deal with Pedroia ... playing baseball for the Red Sox is more than the money for Pedey ... he puts in more hours at the ballpark than any other player in the majors. With Pedey it is all about winning and if you asked him if the FO should sign Cano I bet he would be the first to say Hell Yes!!!!

[BornToRun]

BTR ... no doubt that we got a terrific deal with Pedroia ... playing baseball for the Red Sox is more than the money for Pedey ... he puts in more hours at the ballpark than any other player in the majors. With Pedey it is all about winning and if you asked him if the FO should sign Cano I bet he would be the first to say Hell Yes!!!!

I fail to see how that should any bearing on whether we should actually bring Cano on board.

[marklmw]

I fail to see how that should any bearing on whether we should actually bring Cano on board.

 

It has no bearing at all. FO does not ask players for their input

[Bellhorn04]

For which season .... is this his career average? Remember that Ortiz has been linked to roids and Cano .... never. You really need to adjust for those monster seasons

 

It's career. All we know is that Ortiz had a positive test for something in 2003. Anything else is rumor. There have been rumors about Cano too.

[BornToRun]

It's career. All we know is that Ortiz had a positive test for something in 2003. Anything else is rumor. There have been rumors about Cano too.

 

I remember hearing that he might have been linked to that biogenesis clinic.

[User Name]

Holliday has hit. 300 and opsed nearly. .900. Sabathias first 200 million dollar contract succeeded... His second one not so much. Taking steroids made the roiders worth their contracts... But that still means they were worth them. Beltran lost a year worth of games due to health, but one year doesn't invalidate the other years when healthy or the prospect he gained them.

 

Holliday's problem has been time lost. He's lost essentially a season's worth of games with various maladies. The point of mentioning the roiders is exactly that cheating is what allowed them to live up to the contract, so they don't count when evaluating a supposedly clean player. That would be foolish.

 

Beltran lost essentially two full seasons due to various injuries, and sucked in 2005, hardly justifying his contract.

[User Name]

It has no bearing at all. FO does not ask players for their input

 

Actually they kinda do, and they listen. If it wasn't for Pedro's pitch, Ortiz would've never been a Red Sox.

[marklmw]

Actually they kinda do, and they listen. If it wasn't for Pedro's pitch, Ortiz would've never been a Red Sox.

 

 

Very rarely will the FO go to signed players and ask their opinion. Ortiz as a player may have approached the FO which is entirely different and still rare.

[marklmw]

It's career. All we know is that Ortiz had a positive test for something in 2003. Anything else is rumor. There have been rumors about Cano too.

 

Try comparing the last 5 seasons and you will see fairly similar numbers between Cano and Ortiz.

[User Name]

Very rarely will the FO go to signed players and ask their opinion. Ortiz as a player may have approached the FO which is entirely different and still rare.

 

No he didn't. It's very well known Pedro pretty much convinced the Sox to give Ortiz a shot, who was on the Yankees' radar, before they made a move. It was a point of exasperation for Georgie boy up to the day he died given the way Ortiz has punished the Yanks.

[marklmw]

No he didn't. It's very well known Pedro pretty much convinced the Sox to give Ortiz a shot, who was on the Yankees' radar, before they made a move. It was a point of exasperation for Georgie boy up to the day he died given the way Ortiz has punished the Yanks.

 

my bad ... I meant Pedro not Ortiz approaching the FO. As they say the rest is history. How many more HR's would Ortiz have playing in the Stadium?

[Bellhorn04]

Try comparing the last 5 seasons and you will see fairly similar numbers between Cano and Ortiz.

 

Compare Ortiz's numbers for his age 26-30 years to Cano's for age 26-30. Not close at all.

[marklmw]

Compare Ortiz's numbers for his age 26-30 years to Cano's for age 26-30. Not close at all.

 

Unfortunately we cannot use those years for Ortiz .. the entire league was roiding then ... you can see in those years how many players were hitting 40 HR's.

[User Name]

Unfortunately we cannot use those years for Ortiz .. the entire league was roiding then ... you can see in those years how many players were hitting 40 HR's.

 

That's convenient.

[Palodios]

Holliday's problem has been time lost. He's lost essentially a season's worth of games with various maladies.

 

His games played the last four years are 158, 124, 157 and 144 , an average of 146. At a 150 game average that is 16 games, and even if you want to assume a 162 game season that's still only 65 games... I would hardly consider that a full season.

[User Name]

His games played the last four years are 158, 124, 157 and 144 , an average of 146. At a 150 game average that is 16 games, and even if you want to assume a 162 game season that's still only 65 games... I would hardly consider that a full season.

 

Actually you're right. I forgot that Holliday arrived through a trade mid-season in 2009 and was later re-signed, which is why he only played 63 games with St. Louis. Point stands though.

[Palodios]

Actually you're right. I forgot that Holliday arrived through a trade mid-season in 2009 and was later re-signed, which is why he only played 63 games with St. Louis. Point stands though.

Adding top tier talent through the draft is very inconsistent. If you're a big market and can get 5 good seasons out of a player in a 7 year deal sometimes that is good enough - especially if you don't have to lose prospects or picks to obtain them. For example If Beltran's last big deal was on the table right now, adding a middle of the order bat and very good glove for 5 of 7 years, it wouldn't be an immediate no -go for me- the AAv was half of arods at the time too.