2014 Roster Projections

[User Name]

I like Santana, but i wouldn't trade Lackey for him as it would significantly cripple the Sox' rotation for both 14 and 15.

[mvp 78]

How do you figure??

 

Santana's wRC+ would have been 4th best in the AL for 1B last year. It was 2nd best only to Joe Mauer for all catchers. He's on a 4 yr/$30mm contract.

 

People on this site are undervaluing Santana horribly.

 

WMB and Santana had the same OPS in 2012. You're underrating WMB and overrating Santana in this deal. Basically, you're trading a corner IF with tons of pop at his lowest market value, plus a top pitching prospect, plus a durable and cheap middle of the rotation guy for Santana. It'd be a bad deal for the Sox.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I like Santana, but i wouldn't trade Lackey for him as it would significantly cripple the Sox' rotation for both 14 and 15.

 

Interesting point. Cripple is a strong word, IMO.

 

What kind of WAR would you expect someone like Brandon Workman to generate over a full season? For reference, he posted a 0.7 WAR over 41.2 IP this year. I would personally peg him as a 2-2.5 WAR guy.

 

Now, Lackey last season posted a 3.2 WAR. So you're essentially losing 1 win from last year when you downgrade from Lackey to Workman.

 

The next question is what kind of a WAR you can expect from Hanigan (or whoever the other C would be). Over the past 3 years, he's averaged a 1.5 WAR (1.8, 2.7, 0.0 over the past 3). He's coming off an injury, but I still think he can put up a WAR of 2.0. I like him.

 

Carlos Santana, though, has averaged a 3.4 WAR over the past 3 season (3.3, 3.3, 3.6). So you're bumping your win total by ~ 1 win by getting Santana.

 

Looking at it that way, in a vacuum, it would be a wash. But obviously you can't look at it that way. You have to question which way provides the most risk and reward. Lackey, IMO, is a bit of a regression candidate (FIP a tick higher than ERA). Hanigan coming off an injury also provides a great deal of risk. On the other side, Santana catching 100 games isn't ideal behind the plate, and trusting Brandon Workman to give you 30 starts is risky as well (though you also have Barnes right behind him ready to step in if needed).

 

Personally, I would rather have Santana and Workman than Lackey and Hanigan, not just for this year, but for the years going forward. I don't think it's a downgrade in the short term, and I certainly think long-term it benefits the team.

[Station 13]

Wonder if the Guardians would trade Santana for Lackey + Ranaudo + Middlebrooks?

 

Sox could re-sign Drew with the money saved on Lackey, Workman would be the #5 starter (IMO he's heaps better than Dempster). Rotation of Lester - Buchholz - Peavy - Doubront - Workman. Guardians would get a very strong young arm, an arm that would line up as their #1/#2, and a 3B potentially for the future.

 

The Red Sox have Bogaerts at 3B, with Garin Cecchini only about 1/2 of a year away if depth is needed. Plus, if the Sox can get Drew on a 3/42 deal (or something like that), he would still have plenty of trade value if the Sox wanted to dish him at the deadline. The draft pick tied to him right now hurts his value a bit, so if Cecchini is ready, you can trade Drew and slide Bogaerts to SS.

 

That would f***ing blows for Boston. They lose a guy who is expected as their #2 starter to give them 200IP at above average. Lose their 20-30HR bat, and LOSE the #1 pitching prospect, who comes in handy when Clay's head explode.

 

A rotation of Lester and follow by those guys could quickly erode. How many of them can you count on as 200 inning while at above average?

[SoxFanForsyth]

WMB and Santana had the same OPS in 2012. You're underrating WMB and overrating Santana in this deal. Basically, you're trading a corner IF with tons of pop at his lowest market value, plus a top pitching prospect, plus a durable and cheap middle of the rotation guy for Santana. It'd be a bad deal for the Sox.

 

Great. Middlebrooks was riding a .335 BABIP and had a 5.5:1 K:BB rate. Santana, in 2012, had a .278 BABIP and a 1.1:1 K:BB ratio. WMB has got pop but doesn't take a walk at all and does not fit the offensive approach that the Red Sox preach.

 

You're not losing much pop at all and you're gaining an enormous amount of OBP. Not to mention that this completely discounts 2013, when Santana was substantially better than Middlebrooks.

[mvp 78]

Great, but you're still offering too much imo. A deal could get done for less. I've liked Santana for a while, I just don't like your trade. Why dump 2 SP's and a corner IF, for a 1b/DH guy? It doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

[marklmw]

Santana can play 1B or C. He is young and under control for 4 years at a very good price.

WMB can play 1B, 3B, 2B. He has pop and is a great overall athlete.

Hanigan can hit a little but his defense is solid. He throws out between 40 - 50% of base runners. He receives the ball well.

At the end of the day it would be nice to have all 3 of these players with the 2014 team.

 

Now let us look ahead to 2015 and potential additions to the team.

SP - Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo - Can potentially be our 3,4,5

IF - Cecchini, Hassan, Vasquez

OF - Brentz, Hassan

 

So if the Sox can work a deal for Santana without using any of the players from the 2015 list then I would be all for it.

If the Sox bring Napoli back then we only need to add Hanigan and it is not going to cost all that much to get him.

Edited November 27, 2013 by marklmw

[User Name]

Interesting point. Cripple is a strong word, IMO.

 

What kind of WAR would you expect someone like Brandon Workman to generate over a full season? For reference, he posted a 0.7 WAR over 41.2 IP this year. I would personally peg him as a 2-2.5 WAR guy.

 

Now, Lackey last season posted a 3.2 WAR. So you're essentially losing 1 win from last year when you downgrade from Lackey to Workman.

 

The next question is what kind of a WAR you can expect from Hanigan (or whoever the other C would be). Over the past 3 years, he's averaged a 1.5 WAR (1.8, 2.7, 0.0 over the past 3). He's coming off an injury, but I still think he can put up a WAR of 2.0. I like him.

 

Carlos Santana, though, has averaged a 3.4 WAR over the past 3 season (3.3, 3.3, 3.6). So you're bumping your win total by ~ 1 win by getting Santana.

 

Looking at it that way, in a vacuum, it would be a wash. But obviously you can't look at it that way. You have to question which way provides the most risk and reward. Lackey, IMO, is a bit of a regression candidate (FIP a tick higher than ERA). Hanigan coming off an injury also provides a great deal of risk. On the other side, Santana catching 100 games isn't ideal behind the plate, and trusting Brandon Workman to give you 30 starts is risky as well (though you also have Barnes right behind him ready to step in if needed).

 

Personally, I would rather have Santana and Workman than Lackey and Hanigan, not just for this year, but for the years going forward. I don't think it's a downgrade in the short term, and I certainly think long-term it benefits the team.

 

You are discounting the snowball effect an eventual Buccholz injury would have on the rotation. Your best bet is to keep both Lackey and Workman and deal from a position of organizational strength down in the lower minors like 3B/C/SP.

[mvp 78]

My favorite part of this offseason has been the beatification of Alex Hassan, a player who soxprospects.com (homer site) grades out as a bench player with "fringe-average hit tool" who is slow and struggles with breaking pitches and fastballs.

[marklmw]

We need Lackey in 2013 ... after 2013 not so much.

[marklmw]

My favorite part of this offseason has been the beatification of Alex Hassan, a player who soxprospects.com (homer site) grades out as a bench player with "fringe-average hit tool" who is slow and struggles with breaking pitches and fastballs.

Yeah ... and I run a faster 40 yard dash than Tom Brady but that did not stop Brady from becoming the greatest QB in NFL history. Hassan is a gold glove caliber LF and he has one of the best eyes at the plate in the minors. You need competent bench players like we had this season with Nava and Carp. Sure he can wash out in 2014 but I used the word potential arrivals in 2015 did I not? Do not believe everything you read MVP. I doubt that either Carp or Gomes will still be with the Sox in 2015.

[User Name]

Yeah ... and I run a faster 40 yard dash than Tom Brady but that did not stop Brady from becoming the greatest QB in NFL history. Hassan is a gold glove caliber LF and he has one of the best eyes at the plate in the minors. You need competent bench players like we had this season with Nava and Carp. Sure he can wash out in 2014 but I used the word potential arrivals in 2015 did I not? Do not believe everything you read MVP. I doubt that either Carp or Gomes will still be with the Sox in 2015.

 

I'm a Pats fan too, and i consider that the homerriffic post of the year. As for Hassan, MVP is right in his assessment, although he can certainly handle the stick against lefties.

[Bellhorn04]

We need Lackey in 2013 ... after 2013 not so much.

 

Huh?

[marklmw]

I'm a Pats fan too, and i consider that the homerriffic post of the year. As for Hassan, MVP is right in his assessment, although he can certainly handle the stick against lefties.

 

Firstly, - Brady has done more with less than any QB playing in the modern era. If Brady was the QB for Denver Sunday Night Denver wins that game going away.

Secondly - In the last 2 SB loses to NY Brady lead the team down the field for the go ahead scores. Both times the defense allowed Eli Manning to drive the length of the field to win. One ball was trapped against the receivers helmet ... no catch like that has ever been seen before. Two players missed tackling Manning on the same play. If the NE D held up Brady would have 2 more championships.

Edited November 27, 2013 by marklmw

[marklmw]

Huh?

Sox need Lackey next season because of Buchholz and his injuries. In 2015 we could potentially be seeing Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo. We also have Webster, Doubront & Workman.

Edited November 27, 2013 by marklmw

[mvp 78]

Hassan is a gold glove caliber LF and he has one of the best eyes at the plate in the minors

 

"On the slow side tracking balls in left field. Average range. Not overly athletic in field. Fringe-average defender in left field. Plus arm. Value on roster is heavily tied into offensive production."

 

Bwahahahjahahahaha...

[Palodios]

Sox need Lackey next season because of Buchholz and his injuries. In 2015 we could potentially be seeing Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo. We also have Webster & Workman.

 

Isn't it interesting that this whole forum is assuming Buch gets hurt? Why not trade the guy with the 12-1 record last year? He has a pretty good deal -- 2/20 with two more option years. Sure, he's injury prone, but look at the haul the Blue Jays gave up to get one year of Josh Johnson. He had an injury-filled season, but he was practically the best pitcher in baseball when on the field, so someone must be willing to drop something shiny for him.

[User Name]

Firstly, - Brady has done more with less than any QB playing in the modern era. If Brady was the QB for Denver Sunday Night Denver wins that game going away.

Secondly - In the last 2 SB loses to NY Brady lead the team down the field for the go ahead scores. Both times the defense allowed Eli Manning to drive the length of the field to win. One ball was trapped against the receivers helmet ... no catch like that has ever been seen before. Two players missed tackling Manning on the same play. If the NE D held up Brady would have 2 more championships.

 

Brady is top 5 all-time, but he isn't even better than Manning.

[marklmw]

"On the slow side tracking balls in left field. Average range. Not overly athletic in field. Fringe-average defender in left field. Plus arm. Value on roster is heavily tied into offensive production."

 

Bwahahahjahahahaha...

 

Did I not tell you not to believe everything that you read. He sounds a lot like Nava and Carp to me.

 

Bwahahajahahaha

[marklmw]

Brady is top 5 all-time, but he isn't even better than Manning.

 

You had better stick to baseball UN.

[Bellhorn04]

Sox need Lackey next season because of Buchholz and his injuries. In 2015 we could potentially be seeing Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo. We also have Webster, Doubront & Workman.

 

OK, you typed that we didn't need him after 2013.

 

And potential is exactly that, potential.

[Palodios]

OK, you typed that we didn't need him after 2013.

 

And potential is exactly that, potential.

 

The Red Sox have 5 guys who are potentially top 100 type prospects (plus RDLR), not including the group that already has made an impact on the majors. Not all of them will succeed, but the odds of 2 of 6 becoming solid starters for the organization's future isn't exactly a long shot -- especially since most of them are already in the upper majors. Lackey has 2 more years, Doubront and Buchholz have 4 more years. Lester seems like he will reup. You really just need one or two.

[marklmw]

OK, you typed that we didn't need him after 2013.

 

And potential is exactly that, potential.

 

Come on Bellhorn pay attention. Anyway word is that our FO is open to dealing Lackey, Peavy and Dempster this off season.

 

Should they deal Lackey we would have the following in 2013:

 

Lester

Buchholz

Peavy

Doubront

Workman

Dempster

[marklmw]

The Red Sox have 5 guys who are potentially top 100 type prospects (plus RDLR), not including the group that already has made an impact on the majors. Not all of them will succeed, but the odds of 2 of 6 becoming solid starters for the organization's future isn't exactly a long shot -- especially since most of them are already in the upper majors. Lackey has 2 more years, Doubront and Buchholz have 4 more years. Lester seems like he will reup. You really just need one or two.

 

I am like you Palodios on Buchholz ... but it would have to be something very special coming our way to move him and who is going to part with something special knowing how fragile Buch is. When you say 5 guys in top 100 ... do you mean 50 pitchers?

[User Name]

You had better stick to baseball UN.

 

Right back at ya.

[marklmw]

Right back at ya.

 

Come on UN ... you were served ... just slowly walk away.

[User Name]

Come on UN ... you were served ... just slowly walk away.

 

Served with what? Brady's not the best QB ever. You clearly don't know what you're talking about.

[Palodios]

I am like you Palodios on Buchholz ... but it would have to be something very special coming our way to move him and who is going to part with something special knowing how fragile Buch is. When you say 5 guys in top 100 ... do you mean 50 pitchers?

 

Top 100 prospects refer to all the top scouting lists, ie Baseball America's top 100 prospects. It is a commonly used phrase that basically indicates a prospect is very talented, and the scouting community backs up that assessment. Owens and Ranaudo will almost certainly be on those lists next year, and Webster, Ball and Barnes have pretty good chances to be there as well.

 

And as far as Buchholz...teams do whacky things for cost controlled top tier pitching, especially with guys with that insane of a talent level. I wouldn't be surprised to see two very good pieces come back for him.

Edited November 27, 2013 by Palodios

[mvp 78]

Did I not tell you not to believe everything that you read. He sounds a lot like Nava and Carp to me.

 

Bwahahajahahaha

Which of those guys is a gold glove caliber LF?

[marklmw]

Served with what? Brady's not the best QB ever. You clearly don't know what you're talking about.

 

Brady is by far the best QB to play in the NFL ... ever.