2014 Roster Projections

[Palodios]

Here's how I stand on the matter. We have four free agents.....Napoli, Drew, Satalamacchia and Ellsbury. I think if he lose all four of these players there will be a ripple effect that could affect our team in a very negative way. We would have to replace four players and we may not get lucky again signing types that fit in well with Boston and the remaining roster. All we need are two or three bad signings and bad actors and we start back where we were over a year ago. We need at least two of them back....Napoli for sure and one of the other two---meaning Ellsbury is gone. As for Ells, we need a backup for Bradley just in case he starts hitting as poorly as he did this year for us when brought up. Not too long ago we replaced a solid hitter in Damon for a hitting stiff in Crisp. We cannot replace a solid hitter like Ellsbury with a stiff of any kind. Here's hoping Bradley is as good as some claim he will be, but we better have a good backup outfielder who can play CF and hit fairly well.

 

The beauty of the 2014 team is that even if they lose players, their farm system has recently been rated as the best in the majors for talent in the upper minors. Over the next few years they'll be churning out quality. The one guy they cannot lose is Napoli though.

 

Xander is better than Drew. Salty's bat will be missed, but when the Red Sox's ERA drop a quarter to half a point next year, we'll all know why. Finding a replacement in CF could be tough, especially for a one year fill-in.

[jung]

Xander is better than Drew offensively but not defensively. However Xander is likely better than Will at 3rd right now both offensively and defensively. Will's only advantage their is more time at the position. I still don't think they will try to do anything with Will at this point because:

- they don't have to and Will likely gets some opportunity to play up here as guys get injured etc

- they would like to see if they can build some value back into Will while they are not paying him very much then see what they want to do with him at that point

 

As for Salty, he is in something of a spot I think. Oddly enough, it is the backup catcher that gives the Sox stability at the position. Salty commenting that he wants to stay is a dead give away that he is in a rather weak position and knows it. This is one time when a specific team situation is overarching to the usual situation of FA availability by position etc etc. IMO the Sox will make Salty a very team friendly offer which Salty can either take or leave. If he leaves it the Sox will just go elsewhere. I think they are fine with either overpaying for McCann or possibly paying much less and taking Ruiz.

 

By the way, taking Salty now is no guarantee that they will keep him. Again IMO if they do make him a team friendly deal and if he takes it, they will have him under contract at a price that will make it easy to move him if they want to go in a different direction later. The news that the Sox have contacted Salty may make perfect sense. They will likely dispense with Salty one way or the other first and then either have the catching situation worked out for 2014 or move on to the next step in the process.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm probably going to be dead wrong here but: Ellsbury goes, Drew goes, Napoli stays, Salty (unfortunately) stays.

 

What would you like to see them do about catcher next year?

[User Name]

What would you like to see them do about catcher next year?

 

I would like to see them De-Salty the position, and get a catcher who's a plus defender. If McCann is too expensive, Ruiz for a year with an option would do it for me.

[mvp 78]

I would like to see them De-Salty the position, and get a catcher who's a plus defender. If McCann is too expensive, Ruiz for a year with an option would do it for me.

 

The Rockies are looking to sign Ruiz to a multi-year deal.

[User Name]

So the Tigers are apparently shopping Scherzer. May wanna kick the tires on that one.

[BornToRun]

So the Tigers are apparently shopping Scherzer. May wanna kick the tires on that one.

 

Eh. Why get prospect raped when we can just go after him as a FA? From what I hear, he intends to hit the open market after 2014 so I would just wait until then and see what the price is like.

[User Name]

Eh. Why get prospect raped when we can just go after him as a FA? From what I hear, he intends to hit the open market after 2014 so I would just wait until then and see what the price is like.

 

With only one year before FA and what he'll be making through arb, how much raping can the Tigers do?

[rjortiz]

I think two good prospects would get it done

[marklmw]

Xander is better than Drew offensively but not defensively. However Xander is likely better than Will at 3rd right now both offensively and defensively. Will's only advantage their is more time at the position. I still don't think they will try to do anything with Will at this point because:

- they don't have to and Will likely gets some opportunity to play up here as guys get injured etc

- they would like to see if they can build some value back into Will while they are not paying him very much then see what they want to do with him at that point

 

As for Salty, he is in something of a spot I think. Oddly enough, it is the backup catcher that gives the Sox stability at the position. Salty commenting that he wants to stay is a dead give away that he is in a rather weak position and knows it. This is one time when a specific team situation is overarching to the usual situation of FA availability by position etc etc. IMO the Sox will make Salty a very team friendly offer which Salty can either take or leave. If he leaves it the Sox will just go elsewhere. I think they are fine with either overpaying for McCann or possibly paying much less and taking Ruiz.

 

By the way, taking Salty now is no guarantee that they will keep him. Again IMO if they do make him a team friendly deal and if he takes it, they will have him under contract at a price that will make it easy to move him if they want to go in a different direction later. The news that the Sox have contacted Salty may make perfect sense. They will likely dispense with Salty one way or the other first and then either have the catching situation worked out for 2014 or move on to the next step in the process.

Please explain to me how overpaying for any player is a okay? Especially McCann ... what are you thinking?

[marklmw]

We won the 2013 World Series people ... we won the World Series with Salty and Ross. We can get by another season with the tandem in tack. Hopefully we can locate an young catcher or one of our catchers on the farm will develop. I am very much opposed to signing McCann. IMO McCann is not a significant upgrade and he will cost a lot of money. I would rather use the extra 3-4M per season that would be spent on McCann over Salty and use it to keep Ellsbury or towards Tanaka. Please not McCann.

[marklmw]

So the Tigers are apparently shopping Scherzer. May wanna kick the tires on that one.

He is a great pitcher but I doubt that they will deal with the Red Sox. Might prove too risky to pissing off their fan base.

And you know that we will have to empty our farm to get him.

[marklmw]

Since we are talking about Roster Projections. We know that there is a good possibility that Boston's top two prospects of Bogaerts and JBJ will make the big club in 2014. One player that might make the club as well by mid season is Henry Owens. I say this because he has posted some good numbers at AA and he has a plus change-up. How much better could a number of our pictures ... such as Lester, Dempster, Peavy or Lackey be if they had a plus change? IMO ... it is Buchholz change-up that sets him apart. Most all of today's players can turn on a 95 mph fast ball but they still have to gear up to do it. The change-up is a strike out pitch ... a go-to pitch that devastates hitters and makes the pitchers fast ball 3-5mph faster. Edited November 7, 2013 by marklmw

[Dojji]

We have a number of young pitchers who are a good bet to feature prominently next year. Brandon Workman was a revelation in the postseason, I imagine even if he can't break in on the roster he gets first crack at any opening that becomes available. He's not the flashiest of our prospect by any means, but he just seems to have a very solid overall package, is fundamentally sound, and works his tail off. Owens, Webster, de la Rosa, Barnes, Ranaudo, all solid options depending on what comes open.

[dupree]

Im just trying this out there...

 

Has anyone thought of adding Matt Garza to this rotation? I want Dempster gone. And Bard's contract will be gone as well hopefully freeing up some money for Ells to come back. I say Salty over McCann i think would be an overpay for McCann. Nap is a must sign in my opinion. Let Drew walk, if he does agree trade him away and bring back prospects. I think Garza is not a need by no means ive just not seen any reports on him and was wondering if any of you think that Ben will kick the tires on him. Also i think we have a great farm system loaded with pitching and position players both. Only way i unload the farm on a trade is Stanton. And i think Stanton gets moved this offseason.

[Dojji]

With Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Peavey, Doubront, we don't need to add Garza to force Dempster out of the rotation. He's already out.

[User Name]

He is a great pitcher but I doubt that they will deal with the Red Sox. Might prove too risky to pissing off their fan base.

And you know that we will have to empty our farm to get him.

 

No we don't. He has one arb year left at big money. That seriously cripples his value, as high as it is.

[User Name]

We won the 2013 World Series people ... we won the World Series with Salty and Ross. We can get by another season with the tandem in tack. Hopefully we can locate an young catcher or one of our catchers on the farm will develop. I am very much opposed to signing McCann. IMO McCann is not a significant upgrade and he will cost a lot of money. I would rather use the extra 3-4M per season that would be spent on McCann over Salty and use it to keep Ellsbury or towards Tanaka. Please not McCann.

 

Salty sucks, Tanaka is an unknown, Ellsbury is a pipe dream. McCann is a battle-tested catcher who is significantly better than Salty overall. If he comes at a reasonable price in money /years (60/4) do it. Otherwise look for a catcher with better D and allocate the rest of the resources to a reasonable upgrade.

[dupree]

Is Henry Owens a projected ace of this staff in the future? And is any other farm system prospects projected to be Aces or #2 starters

[User Name]

Im just trying this out there...

 

Has anyone thought of adding Matt Garza to this rotation? I want Dempster gone. And Bard's contract will be gone as well hopefully freeing up some money for Ells to come back. I say Salty over McCann i think would be an overpay for McCann. Nap is a must sign in my opinion. Let Drew walk, if he does agree trade him away and bring back prospects. I think Garza is not a need by no means ive just not seen any reports on him and was wondering if any of you think that Ben will kick the tires on him. Also i think we have a great farm system loaded with pitching and position players both. Only way i unload the farm on a trade is Stanton. And i think Stanton gets moved this offseason.

 

This post is several types of wrong.

 

What money was Bard tying up? He was making near league-minimum money. Ellsbury is almost guaranteed to not come back, and it's not because the Red Sox need to free up money to allocate to him. They have the resources, but don't want to get locked into a retarded contract, and understandably so.

 

If Drew returns, why trade him away? Keep him and his solid overall production. Besides, who would give up solid prospects for a year of Drew at big money?

 

Why would we want Garza? He's not an upgrade over the pitchers we currently have in the rotation and/or waiting in the wings.

 

The Stanton fixation is something i don't understand. He's fragile, about to get expensive, and would cost a ton to get. He's not a specific need, to boot.

[sk7326]

Here's how I stand on the matter. We have four free agents.....Napoli, Drew, Satalamacchia and Ellsbury. I think if he lose all four of these players there will be a ripple effect that could affect our team in a very negative way. We would have to replace four players and we may not get lucky again signing types that fit in well with Boston and the remaining roster. All we need are two or three bad signings and bad actors and we start back where we were over a year ago. We need at least two of them back....Napoli for sure and one of the other two---meaning Ellsbury is gone. As for Ells, we need a backup for Bradley just in case he starts hitting as poorly as he did this year for us when brought up. Not too long ago we replaced a solid hitter in Damon for a hitting stiff in Crisp. We cannot replace a solid hitter like Ellsbury with a stiff of any kind. Here's hoping Bradley is as good as some claim he will be, but we better have a good backup outfielder who can play CF and hit fairly well.

 

Ellsbury is gone - there is just too much money and competition out there. He is one of only 2 guys in this FA class with probable All-Star upside. (yes, Ubaldo Jimenez and Tanaka have all-star upside, but I can't vouch for the probability) A lot of teams have a lot of money and nowhere to spend it - so it is hard to expect Ellsbury to return. I don't disagree that signing a Chris Young to give Bradley some relief, and maintain the outfield defense makes sense. I think folks wildly underestimate Bradley's potential as well as what constitutes a good CF. The fact is, if Bradley can be a 70 glove and put together .370 sort of OBP, that is a star in centerfield, even if he is 10 HRs, 15 SBs.

 

Napoli I think comes back. My guess it is on a 1 year with a vestiing option for something like $13M base with an upside of $17-18. You want to protect against him not being able to make starts, but he has shown enough I think for the market to not demand he take a low base salary in 2014.

 

Drew I am not sure. I think his market could be impacted enough by the pick compensation that he takes the qualifying offer - he is still eligible to be traded and there might be a little more possibility there.

 

Salty could go either way. You could sign flotsam like Carlos Ruiz and hold your nose when he has to face righties. McCann is the most valuable but will cost the most, and I am not sure his bat will smoothly go into DH-level when he rides off into the sunset. Salty's BABIP is clearly not going to hold - but his line drive rates have improved every year, and it at least points to some potential actual hitting improvement. He is a dangerous lefty bat who is average to a little below average defensively ... an above average starting catcher putting it all together. There are some hot names in the system so signing Salty for a long run seems foolish (Lavarnway is NOT one of those names) but given the state of catching in the big leagues, he is one of the better ones.

[sk7326]

This post is several types of wrong.

 

What money was Bard tying up? He was making near league-minimum money. Ellsbury is almost guaranteed to not come back, and it's not because the Red Sox need to free up money to allocate to him. They have the resources, but don't want to get locked into a retarded contract, and understandably so.

 

If Drew returns, why trade him away? Keep him and his solid overall production. Besides, who would give up solid prospects for a year of Drew at big money?

 

Why would we want Garza? He's not an upgrade over the pitchers we currently have in the rotation and/or waiting in the wings.

 

The Stanton fixation is something i don't understand. He's fragile, about to get expensive, and would cost a ton to get. He's not a specific need, to boot.

 

Lot of this makes sense. The Drew thing less so. The best available SS on the market for a very reasonable hitch ($14 million for a 3-4 WAR player is not at all unfair) - you are not going to get a king's ransom, but there will be a lot of teams lining up starting with the team we knocked out of the World Series. Look at it this way, taking the qualifying offer removes the draft pick penalty, and Drew would have to agree to a trade anyway ... there are possibilities for a player of his caliber.

[marklmw]

I'm probably going to be dead wrong here but: Ellsbury goes, Drew goes, Napoli stays, Salty (unfortunately) stays.

 

I will be dead wrong also but here goes. Ellsbury goes, Drew Stays, Napoli Stay, Salty Stays.

[User Name]

Lot of this makes sense. The Drew thing less so. The best available SS on the market for a very reasonable hitch ($14 million for a 3-4 WAR player is not at all unfair) - you are not going to get a king's ransom, but there will be a lot of teams lining up starting with the team we knocked out of the World Series. Look at it this way, taking the qualifying offer removes the draft pick penalty, and Drew would have to agree to a trade anyway ... there are possibilities for a player of his caliber.

 

Yeah, the problem is, that the Red Sox would have zero leverage in negotiations. Teams won't be coerced into giving up decent prospects if they know the Sox are actively trying to trade him, especially with that price tag for one year, and even lees so for a portion of the season.

 

Also, teams can (more likely will) point to his injury history and offensive flop in the post-season as undermining factors. If he takes the QO, he is worth more to the Sox than anyone else.

[marklmw]

Here's how I stand on the matter. We have four free agents.....Napoli, Drew, Satalamacchia and Ellsbury. I think if he lose all four of these players there will be a ripple effect that could affect our team in a very negative way. We would have to replace four players and we may not get lucky again signing types that fit in well with Boston and the remaining roster. All we need are two or three bad signings and bad actors and we start back where we were over a year ago. We need at least two of them back....Napoli for sure and one of the other two---meaning Ellsbury is gone. As for Ells, we need a backup for Bradley just in case he starts hitting as poorly as he did this year for us when brought up. Not too long ago we replaced a solid hitter in Damon for a hitting stiff in Crisp. We cannot replace a solid hitter like Ellsbury with a stiff of any kind. Here's hoping Bradley is as good as some claim he will be, but we better have a good backup outfielder who can play CF and hit fairly well.

 

IMO ... all this fear about JBJ is unfounded. Relax folks. Compare JBJ's end of season campaign to that of Mike Trouts end of season campaign ... the numbers are almost the same. No UN ... I am not saying that JBJ is going to be the next Trout.

[User Name]

IMO ... all this fear about JBJ is unfounded. Relax folks. Compare JBJ's end of season campaign to that of Mike Trouts end of season campaign ... the numbers are almost the same. No UN ... I am not saying that JBJ is going to be the next Trout.

 

Why can't he be the next Mike Trout? 'cause he black?

[sk7326]

Yeah, the problem is, that the Red Sox would have zero leverage in negotiations. Teams won't be coerced into giving up decent prospects if they know the Sox are actively trying to trade him, especially with that price tag for one year, and even lees so for a portion of the season.

 

Also, teams can (more likely will) point to his injury history and offensive flop in the post-season as undermining factors. If he takes the QO, he is worth more to the Sox than anyone else.

 

Basically the prospect level would have to be at least as good as the expected value of a sandwich pick. Basically if there is anybody decent in High-A, that would qualify. Also - in a lot of cases I'd agree with you - but in his case, there are multiple teams who could benefit from him, probably enough to result in some potential value ... even if the value is more an Engel Beltre sort of lotto ticket. Personally it would have been hard for me as GM to give him a qualifying offer if I did not have sense that he could be a trade asset. There is just too much risk of him taking the deal (assuming I was truly committed to Bogaerts at SS, which they might not be - which is a reasonable view even if i might disagree with it somewhat).

[marklmw]

Yeah, the problem is, that the Red Sox would have zero leverage in negotiations. Teams won't be coerced into giving up decent prospects if they know the Sox are actively trying to trade him, especially with that price tag for one year, and even lees so for a portion of the season.

 

Also, teams can (more likely will) point to his injury history and offensive flop in the post-season as undermining factors. If he takes the QO, he is worth more to the Sox than anyone else.

 

It is possible that Drew finishes his career with Boston ... lot's of moving parts but it could happen. Drew did look a lot better at the plate in Games 5 & 6. Boras tried to say that Drew had eye-sight issues but really? ... would that not affect his fielding as well ... he made some big plays in the field. I can see Napoli with Boston for 2 more years and Middlebrooks being moved to 1B.

[sk7326]

why can't he be the next mike trout? 'cause he black?

 

lol

[sk7326]

If Jackie Bradley can show the instincts in CF he has shown since his South Carolina days, and if he can just match his minor league on-base numbers - that is a first rate starting CF who'd make an All-Star game or two in his career.