2014 Roster Projections

[User Name]

You don't know that:

 

A) Tanaka will make the Red Sox better in 2014 or beyond.

 

B ) He will be less expensive than Dempster.

 

Please do not portray your opinion as fact mark.

[mvp 78]

Flavor of the week.

[marklmw]

You don't know that:

 

A) Tanaka will make the Red Sox better in 2014 or beyond.

 

B ) He will be less expensive than Dempster.

 

Please do not portray your opinion as fact mark.

 

UN ... as with you or any other fan on this site it is all about opinion. If you take anything that I say as fact then you are a fool. We know nothing compared to management who make the ultimate decisions. Do you really think that Tanaka is rumored to be going to Texas or New York because he sucks. Get a grip man.

[User Name]

UN ... as with you or any other fan on this site it is all about opinion. If you take anything that I say as fact then you are a fool. We know nothing compared to management who make the ultimate decisions. Do you really think that Tanaka is rumored to be going to Texas or New York because he sucks. Get a grip man.

 

I don't need a grip. And i'll stand by my earlier post. Stating your opinion as fact without anything to back it up simply weakens your position(s).

[Palodios]

First of all you need to take the posting fee out of your head. OK? The owners have soccer clubs, NASCAR teams, Boston Red Sox, NESN. The Red Sox are a play thing for them, the players just chess pieces that they get to move around the board. When you take out the posting fee Tanaka will cost less then Dempster ... Enjoy the fact that Boston finally has an ownership team that is smart and loaded. They would not have traded away Babe Ruth.

 

This argument is just plain dumb. 60 million isn't going to just come out of nowhere, the owners still need to pay for it.

[mvp 78]

This argument is just plain dumb. 60 million isn't going to just come out of nowhere, the owners still need to pay for it.

 

But they own a newspaper! They are basically the robber barons of the early 20th century! John Henry found more hush money in the cushions of his boat when "the incident" happened.

[marklmw]

Flavor of the week.

 

Good one. Yes I like Ellsbury but within reason and depending on what other plans that management has. JBJ is a fine replacement. Yes I like Nava ... especially against right handed pitchers with .320 average. Yes I like Abreu ... only time will tell if I am right. I have always liked Tanaka and for good reason. The Sox do have 5-6 pitchers but only 2 that I will count on for next season. Lester will have a huge year which lowers our chances of re-signing him based on our teams latest fiscal strategies (again who knows) Lackey should be solid next season as well. Buchholz is a huge question mark. Obtaining Tanaka without giving up any top prospects is my flavor right now. You are correct sir.

[rjortiz]

Trade for Carlos Gonzalez.

[marklmw]

But they own a newspaper! They are basically the robber barons of the early 20th century! John Henry found more hush money in the cushions of his boat when "the incident" happened.

Owning the newspaper is just a big corporate tax deduction.

[marklmw]

This argument is just plain dumb. 60 million isn't going to just come out of nowhere, the owners still need to pay for it.

 

My point is that if the owners want to pay the posting fee they will. They play on a different playing field than most anyone and even most MLB franchises. Did it really bother you that they posted 50M for Dice K ... does it keep you up at night today. My point is that if it is ownerships goal is to stay below the Luxury Cap then yes we as fans can discuss who we should sign and not sign based on this premiss. That is why I am saying not to be concerned with the posting fee. If the Yankees are not concerned and perhaps the Dodgers or Rangers then why should we be. Do you think that the typical Yankee fan is worried about a posting fee?

[Orange Juiced]

Trade for Carlos Gonzalez.

 

What do you propose to give up for CarGo?

 

BTW, I was looking at his b-ref page, and a few things stuck out to me:

 

1. He hasn't played a full season since 2010, and even then it was just 145 games. Dude always gets hurt.

 

2. He puts up terrific numbers. Last four years, ops+ of 133. Superb player.

 

3. Look at the last two years in terms of WAR. In 2012, his dWAR was -1.9, but he won a Gold Glove. In 2013, his dWAR was +0.6, and he won a Gold Glove. So I can't tell if he's good or bad at defense.

 

4. His salary the rest of his contract:

2014 (28): 10.5

2015 (29): 16.0

2016 (30): 17.0

2017 (31): 20.0

 

That's 4 years, 15.9 million average. That's less than what Ellsbury will get, and I think CarGo is just as good a player. Comparison, per-162 games:

 

Gonzalez: .300/.357/.530/.887, 125 ops+, 29 hr, 98 rbi, 105 r, 25 sb, 3.3 bWAR per season

Ellsbury: .297/.350/.439/.789, 108 ops+, 15 hr, 71 rbi, 108 r, 55 sb, 3.0 bWAR per season

 

So I'd be happy with the better, younger, and cheaper option in CF over the next 4 years.

 

But again, what to give up to Colorado for him? Surely it would take a LOT.

[Orange Juiced]

How about this:

 

Sox give Rockies: SP Buchholz, OF Brentz

Rockies give Sox: OF Gonzalez

 

Colorado could use some serious pitching help, and Clay would immediately be their #1 by a mile. They also get Brentz, who might be able to put up decent numbers in Coors Field. He would be future OF help for them.

 

The Sox would then replace Ellsbury with Gonzalez, giving JBJ one more year to improve before being a starter in 2015. It would mean either going with a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Peavy, and Dempster, or going after Tanaka hard (or getting another SP somewhere).

 

I think that's the kind of deal it would take to get Gonzalez.

[Dojji]

Flavor of the week.

 

I understand the attraction. It's worth looking into any way to improve the rotation for only money. That said I don't think Tanaka passes a cost benefit analysis for this team at this time.

[Dojji]

How about this:

 

Sox give Rockies: SP Buchholz, OF Brentz

Rockies give Sox: OF Gonzalez

 

ROFL

 

With the flaws both Buchholz and Brentz possess, I doubt you could get 100 cents on the dollar for either of them, much less trading them for a much less flawed top CF.

[RedSoxNC84]

How about this:

 

Sox give Rockies: SP Buchholz, OF Brentz

Rockies give Sox: OF Gonzalez

 

Colorado could use some serious pitching help, and Clay would immediately be their #1 by a mile. They also get Brentz, who might be able to put up decent numbers in Coors Field. He would be future OF help for them.

 

The Sox would then replace Ellsbury with Gonzalez, giving JBJ one more year to improve before being a starter in 2015. It would mean either going with a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Peavy, and Dempster, or going after Tanaka hard (or getting another SP somewhere).

 

I think that's the kind of deal it would take to get Gonzalez.

 

I think it would take more than Buchholz and Brentz. Brentz is a very attractive option as far as an OF prospect, but Buch just isn't durable enough to provide THAT much value. I'd say the Rox would ask for someone like Lester + prospects.

 

Maybe the sox could use Lackey as trade bait?

[RedSoxNC84]

ROFL

 

With the flaws both Buchholz and Brentz possess, I doubt you could get 100 cents on the dollar for either of them, much less trading them for a much less flawed top CF.

 

Yeah the Sox definitely wouldn't get a lot for Buchholz. Maybe a middling starter or a decent BP arm, but not CarGo.

[rjortiz]

I think it would take more than Buchholz and Brentz. Brentz is a very attractive option as far as an OF prospect, but Buch just isn't durable enough to provide THAT much value. I'd say the Rox would ask for someone like Lester + prospects.

 

Maybe the sox could use Lackey as trade bait?

 

Lester has just one year of control left. Rockies won't want him. Also, Lackey was arguably the MVP of the rotation. Why trade him?

[marklmw]

How about this:

 

Sox give Rockies: SP Buchholz, OF Brentz

Rockies give Sox: OF Gonzalez

 

Colorado could use some serious pitching help, and Clay would immediately be their #1 by a mile. They also get Brentz, who might be able to put up decent numbers in Coors Field. He would be future OF help for them.

 

The Sox would then replace Ellsbury with Gonzalez, giving JBJ one more year to improve before being a starter in 2015. It would mean either going with a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Peavy, and Dempster, or going after Tanaka hard (or getting another SP somewhere).

 

I think that's the kind of deal it would take to get Gonzalez.

 

I would make that deal if the Sox were to acquire Tanaka. If not they need to hold onto Buchholz. I am doubtful that Colorado would make that deal with Buchholz health issues.

[rjortiz]

I think Bradley, Owens, and Ranaundo grabs their attention. Slide Victorino to CF.

[User Name]

Carlos Gonzalez career splits:

 

Home: 992 OPS.

 

Away: .774 OPS.

 

Food for thought.

 

This year he had a very strange reverse split, but that's because he had a .407 BABIP on the road. Buyer beware.

 

Not that the Sox can make a deal for Gonzalez without sacrificing pieces they'd best hold on to. This is a pipe dream

[Dojji]

Yeah the Sox definitely wouldn't get a lot for Buchholz. Maybe a middling starter or a decent BP arm, but not CarGo.

 

On the other hand, after thinking about it a minute, I think there's a deal that could be made for Carlos Gonzalez.

 

But it begins with Garin Cecchini and moves upward from there. Cecchini and Owens probably could get you Cargo between them, or at least make up most of the weight in a trade.

[marklmw]

On the other hand, after thinking about it a minute, I think there's a deal that could be made for Carlos Gonzalez.

 

 

 

But it begins with Garin Cecchini and moves upward from there. Cecchini and Owens probably could get you Cargo between them, or at least make up most of the weight in a trade.

I would not give up Owens. The Sox score plenty of runs and they will continue to do so even without Carlos Gonzalez. Think pitching folks ... you must admit the the Sox were lucking getting by TB, Detroit and St. Louis.

[Dojji]

Then you don't get Cargo. you give, if you want to get. No one's taking our second raters and giving back a stud.

 

Frankly I'd be interested in moving Cecchini, Owens and Buchholz to see if that might be enough to pry James Shields out of Kansas City. Shields isn't the ace KC bills him as but he's as durable as any man in this league and I want that kind of durable, 230+ inning frontline guy alongside Lester as a 1-2 punch, far more than I want a fragile guy who dominates on the rare occasions he's fully healthy. I think that overrides any concern about playing kids in positions we're already filling.

Edited November 4, 2013 by Dojji

[Palodios]

Then you don't get Cargo. you give, if you want to get. No one's taking our second raters and giving back a stud.

 

Frankly I'd be interested in moving Cecchini, Owens and Buchholz to see if that might be enough to pry James Shields out of Kansas City. Shields isn't the ace KC bills him as but he's as durable as any man in this league and I want that kind of durable, 230+ inning frontline guy alongside Lester as a 1-2 punch, far more than I want a fragile guy who dominates on the rare occasions he's fully healthy. I think that overrides any concern about playing kids in positions we're already filling.

 

Man you really love Kansas City.

 

These ideas are silly -- Ben isn't selling the farm for anyone, especially not a guy with only one more year of control, or a guy who has been very injured for the past few years. Championships aside, the Red Sox are truly in a bridge period. You don't give up on the best farm in the majors for guys like Cargon or Shields.

[Dojji]

I disagree about Shields. Cargo is at least a little overrated, but durability of the kind Shields offers matters a great deal more than dominance, especially with our lineup.

 

I want another 200 inning guy in this rotation. I think that the season KC had, winning over 85 despite having one of the worst offenses in the league, demonstrates why a durable rotation sets you up for success. Lester is good, a second guy who can pitch a full healthy season would be great. Shields is a guy I know about who's on the last year of his deal and has N-E-V-E-R failed to pitch at least 200 innings, and usually pirches closer to 230 than 200. That's impressive, which is why I want him. I've wanted him before KC got him, but knew the rays wouldn't trade him to us. Now we have a chance at him and I want to see it happen.

Edited November 4, 2013 by Dojji

[Orange Juiced]

Then you don't get Cargo. you give, if you want to get. No one's taking our second raters and giving back a stud.

 

Now Buchholz - he of the 1.74 era in 2013 (and career 3.60 era, and 121 era+) - is a "second rater"? He's one of the most talented pitchers in all of baseball. His only issue - and it is a big one - is his durability. Without that question mark, he's a #1 starter on a playoff team. He's worth a lot more than you apparently think. But he's not worth a true #1 ace, precisely because of those health issues. Which is why the Sox would have to add another quality piece to the mix - hence Brentz (19 hr in just 368 ab this year), who could be a very productive player in Colorado down the road.

 

Frankly I'd be interested in moving Cecchini, Owens and Buchholz to see if that might be enough to pry James Shields out of Kansas City. Shields isn't the ace KC bills him as but he's as durable as any man in this league and I want that kind of durable, 230+ inning frontline guy alongside Lester as a 1-2 punch, far more than I want a fragile guy who dominates on the rare occasions he's fully healthy. I think that overrides any concern about playing kids in positions we're already filling.

 

You'd trade two top prospects plus Buchholz to acquire Shields? That's crazy talk right there.

[sk7326]

I disagree about Shields. Cargo is at least a little overrated, but durability of the kind Shields offers matters a great deal more than dominance, especially with our lineup.

 

I want another 200 inning guy in this rotation. I think that the season KC had, winning over 85 despite having one of the worst offenses in the league, demonstrates why a durable rotation sets you up for success. Lester is good, a second guy who can pitch a full healthy season would be great. Shields is a guy I know about who's on the last year of his deal and has N-E-V-E-R failed to pitch at least 200 innings, and usually pirches closer to 230 than 200. That's impressive, which is why I want him. I've wanted him before KC got him, but knew the rays wouldn't trade him to us. Now we have a chance at him and I want to see it happen.

 

You'd trade 2 of our top 3 prospects for a pitcher who is not actually better than Lester? OK. The Rays would have driven him to the airport if we had a prospect the level of Wil Myers to give up ... we do in Bogaerts but we had no intention of trading him.

 

Tanaka is worth considering - he projects as a #2, and he is young. I'd be more comfortable with a shorter hitch - but I won't dismiss Tanaka either. I do not expect Darvish level ceiling though - there is no evidence of that.

 

The free agent lot is good on depth, short on #1 stuff ... and if any of the top guys get QOs, it becomes a tougher decision (like with Kuroda or Ervin Santana). There are some depth guys with a modicum of ceiling like Ubaldo Jimenez or Scott Feldman who might be worth a spin. Heck, you could even bring back former Red Sox Great Bronson Arroyo for a year.

[User Name]

Dojji's infatuation with every player on the KC Royals roster borders on insanity. His infatuation with Shields/Butler stretches far beyond the "crazy" threshold. That said, he has a point here, even package is a big overpay for a guy with only one year left of control. If they could get Shields for a decent package, they should explore that option, though i highly doubt KC moves him.

[rjortiz]

The one year upgrade from Buchholz to Shields probably isn't worth Cecchini and Owens. I'd trade those two for a player that we could have on our roster for multiple years.

[seabeachfred]

On the other hand, after thinking about it a minute, I think there's a deal that could be made for Carlos Gonzalez.

 

But it begins with Garin Cecchini and moves upward from there. Cecchini and Owens probably could get you Cargo between them, or at least make up most of the weight in a trade.

 

Frankly I think even considering trading Cecchini and Owens for anybody not a real star is absolutely insane. Title or not, this year was kind of bridge year that let to Heaven and we have to understand that many member of this year's team aren't going to be back next season or the season after that and we will have to put permanent replacement in for them. Cecchini is a very solid ballplayer who projects into a good left handed hitter with improving power, and if he's that good of a hitting prospect the Red Sox will find a place to put him. Owens projects as a potential solid starting pitcher along with Renaudo. I'm not looking to denude our farm system for some quick fix. Remember 2006 when we hit with key injuries to Nixon and Varitek we fell through the floor and talk was rampant about getting some reinforcements like Bobby Abreu and Ronnie Belliard to stop the bleeding? Epstein said he was NOT going to trade the kids. Pedroia and Ellsbury stayed and we won a title the next year. I think we need to project this out over the course of six or seven years rather than one. My opinion anyway.