The closer thread

[Bellhorn04]

He'll stay in the 9th because he is incapable of doing anything else.

 

You'll have to elaborate. You're saying that if Maddon puts him in in the 7th inning, he'll just stand there in a catatonic state?

[User Name]

He's doing that in the closer role already. So basically it'll be maintaining the status quo, but in a different inning.

[sk7326]

You'll have to elaborate. You're saying that if Maddon puts him in in the 7th inning, he'll just stand there in a catatonic state?

 

Maddon could put him in the 7th maybe - but he is not reliable enough to be a good setup guy, not with his shaky command. And right now you wouldn't bring him in with guys on base. Tampa has had a ton of success drawing closers out of a hat - partially because they don't seem to overvalue the 9th inning that much. Aside from getting 3 outs with bases empty - there is not a lot they trust him to do. Also, given they play in front of a much more laid back/absent fan base, he can work through his issues.

[Bellhorn04]

Maddon could put him in the 7th maybe - but he is not reliable enough to be a good setup guy, not with his shaky command. And right now you wouldn't bring him in with guys on base. Tampa has had a ton of success drawing closers out of a hat - partially because they don't seem to overvalue the 9th inning that much. Aside from getting 3 outs with bases empty - there is not a lot they trust him to do. Also, given they play in front of a much more laid back/absent fan base, he can work through his issues.

 

Sorry but I can't quite follow the logic. Seems to me if he's not reliable enough to set up he's not reliable enough to close either. I mean setup guys are often given clean innings to work with too.

[sk7326]

I've always wondered - just to switch topics - why teams don't take a lesson from Weaver and break their younger guys in the bullpen ... suppose (using the Red Sox roster as a framework)

 

Starters: Lester, Buchholz, Peavy, Doubront, Lackey (5 man rotation, we know how this works)

Rotating Relievers: Britton, Ranaudo, Dempster (3 man rotation - you know you are the first guy out of the bullpen - 30-40 pitches)

Setup/Closer: Tazawa, Uehara, Thornton (if you want)

 

I wonder if something like this would be more efficient - and still be able to develop pitchers at the top level while getting better than "insert Jesse Crain like name here" or some other parade of one-inning flotsam

[sk7326]

Sorry but I can't quite follow the logic. Seems to me if he's not reliable enough to set up he's not reliable enough to close either. I mean setup guys are often given clean innings to work with too.

 

I do wonder if there is a placebo effect of having a stable 9th inning guy - it doesn't matter how good the guy actually is. Bullpen approaches where managers draw names at random (hello, Grady!) have not had much success, but approaches where managers just nominate a guy who may or may not actually be good (hello Mark Melancon, Brandon League) have seemed to be effective. It's a job that anybody can do - but it is important that SOMEBODY do the job. Maddon might just be satisfied leaving Rodney there as opposed to creating drama in the pitching staff generally.

[rjortiz]

Rodney is hurting the Rays big-time this year. Last night's blown save was his 8th of the year. And 7 of those have ended up as Rays losses.

 

Last year Rodney only had 2 blown saves, both ending up as losses.

 

So you could argue that the Rays have been 5 games worse because of their problems at closer. That'd put them 2.5 ahead instead of 2.5 behind.

 

It'll be interesting to see if Maddon makes a move there.

 

You're assigning 100% of the blame to Rodney. The Jennings error definitely alleviates some of it.

 

Rodney hasn't been good this year, but he hasn't been awful either. He misses a ton of bats, doesn't give up the longball, and his control can't be this bad. He only looks this bad, because he was so dominant in 2012. He's more like an average closer right now.

[User Name]

You're assigning 100% of the blame to Rodney. The Jennings error definitely alleviates some of it.

 

Rodney hasn't been good this year, but he hasn't been awful either. He misses a ton of bats, doesn't give up the longball, and his control can't be this bad. He only looks this bad, because he was so dominant in 2012. He's more like an average closer right now.

 

He has a 1.44 WHIP and an ERA near 4. The funny thing is that both of those numbers are not very far from his career (1.36 WHIP, 3.75 ERA) numbers over a significant sample. He IS this bad.

[rjortiz]

He has a 1.44 WHIP and an ERA near 4. The funny thing is that both of those numbers are not very far from his career (1.36 WHIP, 3.75 ERA) numbers over a significant sample. He IS this bad.

 

I wouldn't call a 3.75 ERA bad. Not good, but not bad. I think he has also been unlucky this year. His BABIP is .40 higher than his career average, and he's walking an extra batter per nine. Despite this, he has a league average ERA. I think he'll be better the rest of the season.

[User Name]

I wouldn't call a 3.75 ERA bad. Not good, but not bad. I think he has also been unlucky this year. His BABIP is .40 higher than his career average, and he's walking an extra batter per nine. Despite this, he has a league average ERA. I think he'll be better the rest of the season.

 

His ERA is s***** for a reliever, especially a closer. His BABIP is high because he's giving up line drives at an insane 25.7% rate. It's mostly his own fault. The walks are also his fault. His only saving grace is the fact that he's keeping the ball in the park.

 

Otherwise, he's sucked, and there's no logical explanation for expecting improvement.

[rjortiz]

Average ERA for an AL reliever is 3.69, so he's slightly below average. As for his improvement, his FIP, and xFIP are in the low 3.00's. His control has never been this terrible, and his LD% is off his career average. Expecting those numbers to normalize isn't unreasonable.

[User Name]

Yeah but "average" includes all of the scrubs and middle relief types. He's essentially pitched like Clayton Mortensen, but with more K's and less control. And what do you mean by "normalize?" His WHIP and ERA are right around career norms. Normalize to what?

[rjortiz]

Yeah but "average" includes all of the scrubs and middle relief types. He's essentially pitched like Clayton Mortensen, but with more K's and less control. And what do you mean by "normalize?" His WHIP and ERA are right around career norms. Normalize to what?

 

I'm expecting his walks to come down along the lines of his career numbers. His BABIP and LD% are both above his career levels, and he's still throwing 98-100 mph, so I expect them to come down.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm expecting his walks to come down along the lines of his career numbers. His BABIP and LD% are both above his career levels, and he's still throwing 98-100 mph, so I expect them to come down.

 

It's almost September. Maybe they won't come down till next year.

[rjortiz]

It's almost September. Maybe they won't come down till next year.

 

He can still throw 10-15 innings next month.

[User Name]

I'm expecting his walks to come down along the lines of his career numbers. His BABIP and LD% are both above his career levels, and he's still throwing 98-100 mph, so I expect them to come down.

 

His BABIP and LD% are so high because of his bad control. You give up liners when you have to groove it down broadway because you can't paint the corners. You seem to be turning a blind eye to the fact that this is extremely close to the pitcher Rodney has been his whole career with the exception of last year. How hard you throw has little effect on how well you pitch if you can't locate.

[seabeachfred]

No, Maddon will keep Rodney in his role. The belief that Maddon is some out of the box thinker genius manager is a fallacy.

 

Still, Maddon is a pretty damn good manager Ted. I got back from Ireland Sunday evening in time to see Peavy give it to the Yanks.. I just hope we can keep this thing going. What a change from last season.

[rjortiz]

His BABIP and LD% are so high because of his bad control. You give up liners when you have to groove it down broadway because you can't paint the corners. You seem to be turning a blind eye to the fact that this is extremely close to the pitcher Rodney has been his whole career with the exception of last year. How hard you throw has little effect on how well you pitch if you can't locate.

 

His BABIP and LD% are so high because of his bad control. You give up liners when you have to groove it down broadway because you can't paint the corners.

 

There's no evidence to support your argument, so I decided to find some. By your logic, we would assume that there would be a positive correlation between BB/9 and BABIP. I looked at the statistics for all qualified pitchers over the last decade. I narrowed those results to look at the 30 worst BB/9 rates. The worst was Carlos Marmol at 6.09 BB/9, and the "best" was Scott Proctor at 4.38 BB/9. I entered the information the leaderboard (via fangraphs) gave me to find the correlation coefficient. The result was a negative correlation of -0.4256189362082224. This number actually suggests the opposite of what you say. Not a strong correlation, but not a weak one. That being said, I tend to agree with the idea that BABIP is mostly driven by luck. There's some evidence to suggest that pitchers with higher strikeout numbers can suppress BABIP, because they are tougher to square up, but it's mostly luck. It was interesting to see in the data that 20/30 of those pitchers were above the average K/9 rate for the time period.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,37,43,36&season=2013&month=0&season1=2003&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

 

You seem to be turning a blind eye to the fact that this is extremely close to the pitcher Rodney has been his whole career with the exception of last year. How hard you throw has little effect on how well you pitch if you can't locate.

 

I guess if you only looked at his ERA you could draw that conclusion. His FIP is his second lowest by a good 1/2 run. His walks are also way up. His control his bad, but I don't think it is Carlos Marmol bad. The BABIP is also distorting his ERA. League average BABIP is .293, and he's at .309.

 

Again, I'm not saying he's awesome. I just think calling him awful is unjustified.

[User Name]

There's no evidence to support your argument, so I decided to find some. By your logic, we would assume that there would be a positive correlation between BB/9 and BABIP. I looked at the statistics for all qualified pitchers over the last decade. I narrowed those results to look at the 30 worst BB/9 rates. The worst was Carlos Marmol at 6.09 BB/9, and the "best" was Scott Proctor at 4.38 BB/9. I entered the information the leaderboard (via fangraphs) gave me to find the correlation coefficient. The result was a negative correlation of -0.4256189362082224. This number actually suggests the opposite of what you say. Not a strong correlation, but not a weak one. That being said, I tend to agree with the idea that BABIP is mostly driven by luck. There's some evidence to suggest that pitchers with higher strikeout numbers can suppress BABIP, because they are tougher to square up, but it's mostly luck. It was interesting to see in the data that 20/30 of those pitchers were above the average K/9 rate for the time period.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,37,43,36&season=2013&month=0&season1=2003&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

 

 

 

I guess if you only looked at his ERA you could draw that conclusion. His FIP is his second lowest by a good 1/2 run. His walks are also way up. His control his bad, but I don't think it is Carlos Marmol bad. The BABIP is also distorting his ERA. League average BABIP is .293, and he's at .309.

 

Again, I'm not saying he's awesome. I just think calling him awful is unjustified.

 

I never implied that his BABIP had to do with his BB/9. Command and control are not the same thing. You essentially made up an argument out of thin air. Nice research though. And Rodney has been awful this season. A spade is a spade.

 

Command: Ability to throw strikes.

 

Control: Ability to consistently throw the ball where you want it in the strike zone.

 

If you want to counter my argument about Rodney, what you need to look at are his pitch charts.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=494&position=P&season=2013&date=0&dh=0

 

Rodney's pitch charts are at the bottom.

[Orange Juiced]

Speaking of closers, how about Koji freaking Uehara? Here are his numbers since June 30:

 

23 g, 25.0 ip, 8 h, 1 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 31 k, 0.00 era, 0.40 whip, 11.2 k/9, 15.5 k/bb, batters hitting .098/.119/.122/.241, .157 babip, throwing 75% strikes

 

I mean, those are unfathomably great numbers. He's thrown 309 pitches over that span, which means that he's averaged just over 12 pitches an inning. Dude has been amazing beyond any reasonable expectation we could possibly have had for him.

[Orange Juiced]

Sorry but I can't quite follow the logic. Seems to me if he's not reliable enough to set up he's not reliable enough to close either. I mean setup guys are often given clean innings to work with too.

 

Well, the obvious difference is that if you blow a save in the 7th or 8th, your team still has another at-bat to get it back. But if you blow a save in the bottom of the 9th, the game could be over right then and there. (you could blow a save by letting them tie it, of course)

[SoxSport]

Speaking of closers, how about Koji freaking Uehara? Here are his numbers since June 30:

 

23 g, 25.0 ip, 8 h, 1 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 31 k, 0.00 era, 0.40 whip, 11.2 k/9, 15.5 k/bb, batters hitting .098/.119/.122/.241, .157 babip, throwing 75% strikes

 

I mean, those are unfathomably great numbers. He's thrown 309 pitches over that span, which means that he's averaged just over 12 pitches an inning. Dude has been amazing beyond any reasonable expectation we could possibly have had for him.

 

Koji is a legitimate CY candidate. It's time the media recognized that. The network types have been paying scant attention to the Red Sox, who have spent most of the year in first place.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, the obvious difference is that if you blow a save in the 7th or 8th, your team still has another at-bat to get it back. But if you blow a save in the bottom of the 9th, the game could be over right then and there. (you could blow a save by letting them tie it, of course)

 

Of course. But my post was directed to sk7326, who was saying that he thought Rodney would stay as closer because he couldn't set up. I couldn't understand his point.

[Orange Juiced]

Of course. But my post was directed to sk7326, who was saying that he thought Rodney would stay as closer because he couldn't set up. I couldn't understand his point.

 

Fair enough. I was just saying that a guy could definitely be reliable enough to set up but not reliable enough to close, because maybe he can't handle the additional pressure.

 

It's kind of weird because you'd think that pitching is pitching, and guys are *always* looking just to get people out, no matter what the situation is. But there's a very real difference between the 7th/8th innings and the 9th inning; some guys can do one thing but not the other.

[sk7326]

I'm expecting his walks to come down along the lines of his career numbers. His BABIP and LD% are both above his career levels, and he's still throwing 98-100 mph, so I expect them to come down.

 

His walk rates (Rodney) are right in line with his career numbers. BABIP is .300, which is around "normal". It was last year's .220 which was the outlier. He is a very ordinary pitcher - but stuff plays up a bit in the pen.

[sk7326]

Fair enough. I was just saying that a guy could definitely be reliable enough to set up but not reliable enough to close, because maybe he can't handle the additional pressure.

 

It's kind of weird because you'd think that pitching is pitching, and guys are *always* looking just to get people out, no matter what the situation is. But there's a very real difference between the 7th/8th innings and the 9th inning; some guys can do one thing but not the other.

 

Well, to fans the 9th inning has a special significance, but on the closer evidence "innings are innings" does seem to be more truthful. After all, Melancon is closing for a pennant contender this year - while he was hide your eyes awful in Boston. Same guy, his stuff isn't special. Fernando Rodney was dreadful in Anaheim after being OK in Detroit and has closed well in Tampa. Tampa put him in after Kyle Farnsworth, who was a disaster as a close and late guy in other stops became a 9th inning specialist. The Cardinals won 2 world series sort of randomly plugging in a closer for the stretch run. There is no real magic to the 9th inning in practical terms. That said, there is evidence to me that it is a role and the bullpen benefits from having some of these jobs well defined.

[sk7326]

Koji is a legitimate CY candidate. It's time the media recognized that. The network types have been paying scant attention to the Red Sox, who have spent most of the year in first place.

 

He's not at all. He has had a marvelous season. But you need the right sort of year for a closer to get that consideration - and in almost all of those cases they are poor choices. Scherzer and King Felix are way way out in front of the rest of the field, with Yu probably being the best of the "everyone else" division. But Uehara's durability has been stunning, something I don't think a lot of people saw coming.

[User Name]

Well, to fans the 9th inning has a special significance, but on the closer evidence "innings are innings" does seem to be more truthful. After all, Melancon is closing for a pennant contender this year - while he was hide your eyes awful in Boston. Same guy, his stuff isn't special. Fernando Rodney was dreadful in Anaheim after being OK in Detroit and has closed well in Tampa. Tampa put him in after Kyle Farnsworth, who was a disaster as a close and late guy in other stops became a 9th inning specialist. The Cardinals won 2 world series sort of randomly plugging in a closer for the stretch run. There is no real magic to the 9th inning in practical terms. That said, there is evidence to me that it is a role and the bullpen benefits from having some of these jobs well defined.

 

Excellent excellent post.

[SoxSport]

He's not at all. He has had a marvelous season. But you need the right sort of year for a closer to get that consideration - and in almost all of those cases they are poor choices. Scherzer and King Felix are way way out in front of the rest of the field, with Yu probably being the best of the "everyone else" division. But Uehara's durability has been stunning, something I don't think a lot of people saw coming.

 

Not at all? He certainly deserves consideration, considering his great stats (ERA, Whip, K/W etc) and his importance to the team down the stretch in key save opportunities.

 

It's an interesting situation, where the number of saves is almost irrelevant, just as in some cases the no. wins has become less important for starters. Somebody got a save last night, for example, pitching 3 relief innings with a 10-1 lead.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, to fans the 9th inning has a special significance, but on the closer evidence "innings are innings" does seem to be more truthful.

 

I disagree. The 9th inning can have special significance, and not just for fans, depending on the closeness of the game. The difference between the 9th inning of a 1-run game, and the 6th inning of a 1-run game, is measured by the difference in win probability and 'leverage'. Statistically, a team has significantly less chance of winning a game they trail by one run in the 9th vs. a game they trail by one run in the 6th.

 

So statistically the 9th is indeed special. The real question, presumably, is how this affects the pitcher who has to pitch the 9th vs. the pitcher who has to pitch the 6th.

 

And the only people can answer this are the people who actually do it.