Bad Contracts Around MLB

[sk7326]

What's the dollar value assigned to wins these days?

 

I've read 4-5 million per win is a going rate. There is a lot of money chasing less than amazing guys - the best guys are being locked up smartly.

 

That said, marginal value of wins change vary widely by team. The marginal value of wins for the Sox I imagine is pretty low (at least until you get to wins 70+ or so).

[Orange Juiced]

I think bad contracts still starts with A-Rod. It will become even worse when MLB suspends the rest of the cheats in the next 7 to 10 days. The New York media is already circling like voltures.

 

Unless that suspension frees the Yankees up from the contract.

[User Name]

Well, actually he hasn't, since he's being paid 23M and not 21M. He also missed half of 2011, and wasn't worth his contract when he did play.

 

Well i'm assuming he'll produce enough value rest of year to partly overcome his injury riddled 2011. And i'd need to know your definition of "worth". I remember a writer on fangraphs pointing out that to assign a value to whether or not a player was "worth" a contract awarded to him, the production in dollars (per WAR) an assignment of a 10% standard deviation would be valid on a scaling basis. (As in, 10% less WAR $ than the value of contract would be "acceptable" with the scale rising from there). Then again, i am only presenting an interpretation of their data and don't have a specific opinion on the matter.

[Emmz]

Would you trade someone your 23M dollars for someone else's 21M dollars? I wouldn't.

[sk7326]

Mauer is an interesting deal. Clearly he was identified and paid as a franchise player. He was the best catcher in the league by a long way before his injuries piled up (and that's always a huge risk with the position). His MVP was very much deserved and he was one of the best players in the league - but always with that "when healthy" caveat like Tulo. I think it makes sense for the Twins - they can't just let all of their players go to free agency and retain credibility with their fans.

[Emmz]

So far he's played about $20M below his contract, and that's pretty significant when you consider he hasn't been "worth it" in any one year.

 

Assuming, ofc, that sabermetrics are correct and that he was really worth 21M each of those seasons, but that's for a different debate.

[User Name]

Would you trade someone your 23M dollars for someone else's 21M dollars? I wouldn't.

 

I don't understand what you're getting at. The reason they try to create a scale for evaluation is that neither WAR nor the dollar value formula are perfect, and even less so when it comes to catchers, since they don't have a clear-cut way to evaluate their defense. With that in mind, Mauer could have actually been worth more (or less) in all three of those seasons than what their $ numbers say. Again, i'm not saying i personally think he's worth it ( my opinion is that no player is worth a 20 mill contract, but it's blatantly subjective) just trying to introduce the data to spark discussion.

[User Name]

Mauer is an interesting deal. Clearly he was identified and paid as a franchise player. He was the best catcher in the league by a long way before his injuries piled up (and that's always a huge risk with the position). His MVP was very much deserved and he was one of the best players in the league - but always with that "when healthy" caveat like Tulo. I think it makes sense for the Twins - they can't just let all of their players go to free agency and retain credibility with their fans.

 

Do you think intangibles have a dollar value? Because they sure made Derek Jeter a whole lot of money.

[Emmz]

Mauer is an interesting deal. Clearly he was identified and paid as a franchise player. He was the best catcher in the league by a long way before his injuries piled up (and that's always a huge risk with the position). His MVP was very much deserved and he was one of the best players in the league - but always with that "when healthy" caveat like Tulo. I think it makes sense for the Twins - they can't just let all of their players go to free agency and retain credibility with their fans.

 

He's also the hometown kid. It was a no-brainer to retain him at the time, but it really hasn't gone as expected.

 

He's been more or less healthy for 2/3 seasons under the new contract, and he was very mediocre for the half of 2011 he played. '12-13 he's been sort of like the old Joe Mauer. I can live with that, but 23M for a guy who can't even hit 10 home runs is a lot of money.

[italstallianion]

I think so. I don't think they have a specific number, but they are worth some extra money. For example, Mauer is from Minn and was/is/will be the face of the franchise. Therefore I think Minnesota would be more likely to pay him the big bucks than someone who didn't have those intangibles. Also factor in catching intangibles such as the ability to work with the pitching staff.

[Emmz]

I don't understand what you're getting at.

 

It means that, assuming sabermetrics are accurate, which is apparently what we're doing, he hasn't been worth his contract.

 

I don't know how I can simplify it beyond that. If sabermetrics aren't perfect then you brought them into this discussion and you have to live with that. Debating whether he may have been 10% worse than 21M or 10% better than 21M is a waste of time.

[Emmz]

Do you think intangibles have a dollar value? Because they sure made Derek Jeter a whole lot of money.

 

What intangibles? Does the "C" on his jersey magically add 20 wins to the Yankees' record?

[italstallianion]

As a small point one could argue that the "hometown guy" could put more seats in the stands and sell more merchandise which may also justify a higher salary.

[User Name]

It means that, assuming sabermetrics are accurate, which is apparently what we're doing, he hasn't been worth his contract.

 

I don't know how I can simplify it beyond that. If sabermetrics aren't perfect then you brought them into this discussion and you have to live with that. Debating whether he may have been 10% worse than 21M or 10% better than 21M is a waste of time.

 

What are we arguing here? I haven't taken a stance either way. Chill.

 

I posted the numbers and tried to explain the logic behind them.

[User Name]

What intangibles? Does the "C" on his jersey magically add 20 wins to the Yankees' record?

 

How else can you explain the two contracts the Yankees have given him? One paying him like an elite SS when he wasn't elite defensively and there were several others better than him offensively, and the current one still paying him superstar money while his skills have declined.

[Emmz]

As a small point one could argue that the "hometown guy" could put more seats in the stands and sell more merchandise which may also justify a higher salary.

 

Yeah, I agree with that too, that they probably get a lot of money back just because everyone's crazy about Joe Mauer.

 

That's part of why I mentioned him being the hometown kid, is that it's good for the Twins to have a guy like that. He's from St. Paul and he's still an elite catcher.

[Emmz]

How else can you explain the two contracts the Yankees have given him? One paying him like an elite SS when he wasn't elite defensively and there were several others better than him offensively, and the current one still paying him superstar money while his skills have declined.

 

Yeah, and there aren't other Yankees who are being paid way more than they should be paid? The Twins can't afford that, they have Joe Mauer taking up 1/3 of their payroll pretty much.

[sk7326]

WAR's win values are interesting - but really a global average/rule of thumb. It still depends on individual markets. For Tampa, the value of wins are really low. I am not sure that anybody can generate eyeballs/gate in that market - so Tampa has to stick with the college football route (continual development, some guys will leave). For Boston or New York, it's probably low to a point (not sure how much being a 70-80 win team moves the needle there either way) but can get very valuable quickly. For Pittsburgh, a good market that has not won in eons - the value of a playoff berth could be enormous.

[mvp 78]

Dustin Pedroia: 1/14 since signing his extension with 1K/1BB. Bust!

[jung]

I would have to guess that when a team decides to make a guy the face of their franchise as the Sox have with Pedey, that means something that you can take to the bank when you are living in a world of homicidal tight ends (no pun intended).

[Emmz]

No, that pun was intended.

 

But yeah, I don't consider the Pedroia contract bad at all. He could have for sure got more somewhere else, and he's already earned his last contract really. Someone who's not obsessed with money, is very good at what he does, and is the face of the franchise. Sounds like the perfect guy to have retire as a Red Sox.

[BSN07]

Werth looks like he's back to the guys he was in Philly, Rios has been around a 3-win player for his career with the White Sox, so he's not a black hole. Zito sucked, Howard was a stupid deal to begin with, Crawford was never going to live up to that contract, and Santana doesn't have the stuff or health anymore to be worth the money while Bay was a complete and utter bust as is A-Rod considering the time he has left and his injuries/PED drama.

 

Upton, Hamilton and Pujols are the "we'll see guys" while Soriano was just "meh".

 

Rios for almost his entire contract has not lived up to it. But he probably has salvaged it for the most part. Werth is a tough call. I put him on there because I thought Washington really over paid for him. But if he keeps up his current production for most of the remaining part of the deal it probably won't look too much like an overpay.