Big Fan of Pedroia but Not His Extension

[marklmw]

Am I the only Sox fan that does not agree with the terms of the Pedroia extension? My thoughts are:

 

1. Why 7 years? I believe that management could have gotten a deal done on a 4 year extension and at worse 5 years. Think about this for a moment ... this 7 year extension takes Pedroia out to age 38. A 4 year extension takes him out to 35. No doubt that Peddy works hard every game, every at bat, he is a great leader, fielder, everything you want in a ballplayer but to think that his skill level will be the same at age 35, 36, 37, 38 as it is today is not realistic. Peddy loves Boston. Think about this ... If the Sox had given a 4 year extension and Peddy is still producing at a high level the Sox could then extend him out 2 years at a clip. Very similar to how the Sox have treated Ortiz.

 

2. What if? The Sox end up with a stud 2nd baseman down the road and Pedroia's production is down? This position is now blocked for 8-9 years.

 

3. The player that the Sox should be concentrating on is Ellsbury. When healthy Ellsbury is the most valuable everyday player the Sox have. The Sox would have been wise to get something done with Ells. 5 years at 14.28 per. just like Pedroia. It would be hard to pass up considering he has a history of injuries and knows that health is not guaranteed.

[User Name]

Pedroia is both a better player than Ellsbury, more important to the club, and less focused on money. The Pedroia extension is both a baseball and business move, as the Red Sox are protecting their brand by extending Pedroia long term. He is the face of this franchise, and will be so even more once Ortiz retires.

[marklmw]

Your 3 points are all subjective. Do not agree with your "protecting their brand" comment. Do you think that the Sox could have extended him 4 more years to age 35 or not? Do you think he is going to have the same range at 2nd base when he is 38?

[Standing Room]

Woah, someone less optimistic about the Red Sox than a700 AND jackso? We need to find this man and study them in the name of science.

[User Name]

What isn't subjective? So are your points. You don't know whether they could have extended him to his age 35 season instead of his age 38 one. He will obviously decline as a ballplayer, but they felt compelled to keep him after his prime years because of what he means to the franchise. There's no other explanation.

 

Also, remember that with the way salaries are inflating in MLB, by the time Pedey starts declining, his salary may be a bargain. Since we play in the AL , he could always spend significant time at DH. As for the idea that a better 2B may appear, we should cross that bridge when we get there considering the usual scarcity of two-way players at the position.

[User Name]

Woah, someone less optimistic about the Red Sox than a700 AND jackso? We need to find this man and study them in the name of science.

 

Ok this got a chuckle out of me.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Dan Szymbroski's projections on Pedroia's seven-year, $100 million extension values him perfectly.

 

Year WAR VALUE (Millions)

2015 4.0 $21

2016 3.5 $19

2017 3.2 $17

2018 2.6 $14

2019 2.2 $12

2020 1.6 $10

2021 1.0 $7

TOTAL 18.1 $100

 

No. You couldn't get Pedroia for 5 years. He would never take a 5 year extension when Cano, who is a year older, is about to get an 8 year/200mm deal on the market. You've got Pedroia for an AAV of 13.75mm. That's pennies on the dollar for someone like him. His agents told him it was "lunacy" to take the deal he took.

 

Being opposed to this deal is ridiculous. He left millions on the table because he wanted to win.

 

We explained to him that this is financial lunacy," agent Seth Levinson said in reference to Dustin Pedroia wanting to approach the Red Sox as early as 2011 about spending the rest of his career in Boston (WEEI's Alex Speier reporting). "Money was never really a factor," explained Levinson, who also said Pedroia chose years over salary partly to avoid becoming a contract albatross.

 

end thread.

[Standing Room]

By all accounts, the deal we got is a steal. Cano is going to get nearly twice as much in free agency and more years. So while you may think we could have locked him up for 4 or 5 years, all evidence seems to suggest otherwise. And if the Red Sox waited until after Cano was signed, Cano's contract would have inflated Pedroia's asking price.

 

What if the Red Sox end up with a stud second baseman? This seems like a strange argument considering we already HAVE a stud centerfielder and you're arguing that we should be signing Ellsbury to a longterm deal. Besides, you don't not sign one of the most valuable players in baseball at their position because you might eventually develop a stud prospect at the position. By that logic, why sign anyone?

 

Furthermore, it's not like signing Pedroia prevents us from being able to sign Ellsbury. We have the salary room to sign Ellsbury still, if that's what we wanted to do.

[User Name]

Not to mention that inherently, WAR value calculations are often conservative in their projections of salary inflation throughout MLB. So if anything, he's probably slightly undervalued by the projections.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Exactly. In 8 years, $13.75mm AAV for a 2B is going to be average pay.

[mvp 78]

I agree, they really should have picked up his 2015 option and lowballed him for 4 years that offseason when he'd be asking for at least 17.5 a year. Then after that, you offer 2 years at 8 per.

 

Oh wait, it comes out to basically the exact same thing.

 

The last 2 years at 17M are not an issue. Why are you trying to make it into one?

[marklmw]

What the Yankees do with Cano is their business not the Sox. If the Yankees wish to continue over paying for their players and they certainly have that luxury let them. I am arguing for Ellsbury extended to 5 years beginning next season and not 7 years like Pedroia. Ellsbury will not be 38 at the end of an 8 year deal. I am not so sure I want a second baseman who is 37 ... 38 years old batting 245 with limited range to be the face of the franchise.

[mvp 78]

And you're not running the risk of Cano inflating the price tag.

[marklmw]

You will not be the GM of any team of mine if you are going to pay Peddy 17.5 a year for 4 years. Furthermore, even if he was paid 17.5 for 4 years paying him 8 per year at at 37 and 38 might be a waste of money. Is this Pedroia?

[mvp 78]

I'd rather a 37 year old 2b than a 35 year old CF.

 

The Yanks signings affect ALL teams. These contracts aren't written in a vacuum.

[mvp 78]

You will not be the GM of any team of mine if you are going to pay Peddy 17.5 a year for 4 years. Furthermore, even if he was paid 17.5 for 4 years paying him 8 per year at at 37 and 38 might be a waste of money. Is this Pedroia?

 

Yes, I am Pedroia. Duh!

[User Name]

What the Yankees do with Cano is their business not the Sox. If the Yankees wish to continue over paying for their players and they certainly have that luxury let them. I am arguing for Ellsbury extended to 5 years beginning next season and not 7 years like Pedroia. Ellsbury will not be 38 at the end of an 8 year deal. I am not so sure I want a second baseman who is 37 ... 38 years old batting 245 with limited range to be the face of the franchise.

 

No offense, but i don't quite think you understand how baseball economics work. What happens with Cano would definitely have impacted what happened with Pedroia had he not signed an extension right now. It is the main reason why the Sox chose to work out the extension now, per insider sources.

 

Also, it borders on the ridiculous to complain about Pedroia's extension then pine for an extension for Ellsbury (even if it's 5 years) since Ellsbury is an inferior player to Pedroia, and obviously much less durable. You're talking out of both sides of your mouth here.

[marklmw]

Ellsbury at 35 playing left field will be a better deal that Pedoria at 38 playing second base. One of use will be right but I doubt that either one of use will be on this tread saying 'I told you so' BTW ... has it been so long that you forget the year Ells had in 2011 when he was healthy? He is a stud and probably the 2nd best center fielder in baseball behind Mike Trout.

[User Name]

Ellsbury at 35 playing left field will be a better deal that Pedoria at 38 playing second base. One of use will be right but I doubt that either one of use will be on this tread saying 'I told you so' BTW ... has it been so long that you forget the year Ells had in 2011 when he was healthy? He is a stud and probably the 2nd best center fielder in baseball behind Mike Trout.

 

The chances of this happening are close to zero. And your Ellsbury homerism certainly invalidates any and all credibility you may have. 2nd best behind Trout? Get a clue.

[mvp 78]

So per my internet sleuthing, you wanted to do the following last offseason: sign Ells for 5/90 (you've been a huge fanboy of his since 07) and sign Josh Hamilton. But it's the Pedey contract you have a problem with? Uh, ok...

 

Ellsbury's Brady Anderson season isn't coming back.

[mvp 78]

The chances of this happening are close to zero. And your Ellsbury homerism certainly invalidates any and all credibility you may have. 2nd best behind Trout? Get a clue.

 

An Ellsbury with diminished speed isn't worth throwing in LF. He has no power and a noodle arm.

[marklmw]

Again Mr. Nixon we disagree. I have no issue with the extension and getting it done now. 7 years to to long for Pedroia. End of story. Knowing what I know of Pedroia I think he would have signed a 4 year extension taking him to age 35. Ellsbury is not an inferior player to Pedroia .... just the opposite. I love them both so there is no hate here for Peddy. When you build a winning team you build up the middle. When Ellsbury is playing in center it makes a big difference just ask the pitching staff.

[marklmw]

Look ... the Sox move Ellsbury to left and sign Cameron to play Center ... a near insane move. Then come Beltre running like a mad man out into left for a pop fly and runs over Ellsbury. Last year Ellsbury goes hard into second to break up a DB that he had no chance in hell to break up ... the hitter was still out by 3 steps at first ... out again. Hopefully Ellsbury has learned that these types of plays are better saved for game 7 of the world series.

[mvp 78]

Ellsbury is not an inferior player to Pedroia .... just the opposite.

Pedroia is inferior to Ellsbury???

[User Name]

Every possible offensive, defensive, and value-based stats proposes Pedroia as a superior player to Ellsbury for their careers. He doesn't know what he's talking about.

 

Even this season, in which Pedroia has played entirely with a torn tendon in his thumb, he's been only 0.2 wins less valuable than Ellsbury, who's in a contract drive. Please be objective.

[marklmw]

Sign Ellsbury 5 years at $15m per. $75m. Why are you bringing Josh Hamilton into this discussion. Sign Peddy at 4 years at $15m per. (because Peddy loves Boston and I think he would take it) I suppose that you do not play fantasy baseball and yes I realize that fantasy baseball is just that ... but do go to the espn site for fantasy bball and click on the player rater. Of all MLB players Ellsbury is sitting at #8 and Pedroia is at #31.

http://games.espn.go.com/flb/playerrater?

It is pretty accurate when you go down the list of players and what there value is. For 2013 compare Ellsbury's 11.07 to Peddy's 8.27. While Peddy has had more plate appearances as well. Ellsbury has had a had wrist for much of this season and his hr's are now just coming. Now way is Peddy a better player than Ellsbury.

[marklmw]

Does everything come down to a WAR rating to you? You have entirely missed my point. I think that Pedroia would have taking a 4-5 year extension at the same money per year.

[marklmw]

Do you think it was a good thing that Boston only signed Beltre for 1 year .... of course not.

Do you think it worked out well for the Sox to have only signed Napoli to a 1 year incentive laden deal in the end? I think yes after looking at his strikeout rate.

Looney the first baseman for Tampa is now making $2m and will be a free agent this coming off season. Looney has a better glove, better health, and better numbers. Sometimes you win and sometimes you loose. There are no guarantees. The longer you go out on a players contract the more time they have to under perform or become injured. By given someone like Pedroia 7 years is not saving the Sox money long term. From a hitting stand point I think Peddy's best years are behind him. BTW ... Peddy is batting 3rd with a hot Pappi behind him, Ellsbury is batting first with Victorino or Nava behind him. Put Ellsbury in the 3 spot and his numbers will only get better.

[VA Sox Fan]

Btw, it's PEDEY, not peddy. Most realize Ells won't be back next year. That became clear when he hired Boras.

 

Agree to disagree with respect to Pedey's extension.

[mvp 78]

Btw, it's PEDEY, not peddy.

Thank you.

Edited July 25, 2013 by mvp 78