Our lineup

[pcbsoxfan]

this lineup just has way too many holes in it. Here's my evaluation

 

Ellsbury is good leadoff hitter, but he's really hurting us in this stretch, unless he gets plunked, not getting on to start games.

 

Victorino has been consistently good. Puts the ball in play, speed pressures the defense, runs the bases well.

 

Pedey is still one of the best hitters in the game, pure and simple. And usually pretty clutch, when he slumps, it's because he's hitting line drives right at people.

 

Ortiz has come back strong, like the Ortiz of several years ago. Wish he could learn to push balls to the left side and force people to give up the shift...but that's being picky. Need him to keep hitting balls out of the yard, or we won't be scoring runs period!

 

Napoli has classic power swing, but waaaaay too many strikeouts. Like 40 percent of his at bats. Can't continue to back up Papi with a guy every manager would prefer to pitch to as opposed to give Ortiz pitches to hit. He has to figure out how to make more contact, or he gets dropped in the order.

 

Nava is a nice surprise so far this season. He's a switch hitter, short of him breaking BOTH lets, no reason to ever play Gomes who is an absolute joke. He's hitting 182 with 21 strikeouts in 66 ab. Gomes should simply not see the field again.

 

Middlebrooks is horrible. Some claim he's hurt, but aside from one big game in Toronto, he's been awful all season long. Enough of a sample to know pitching coaches have him figured. 44 k's in 140 at bats. He's a rally killer! On top of that he's a huge liability in the field, so he needs a trip to Pawtucket to get things ironed out. Would rather see Double-A guy with potential filling that spot. seriously.

 

Salty is a mystery. great swing, some nights he looks like he's impossible to pitch to, other nights, he looks like he's stoned in the box. 36 k's in 95 at bats. Wow, nearly a 40 percent clip.

 

Drew has been a huge disappointment. 28 k's in 95 at bats, one whiff per game. He's had one decent 5 game stretch and that's it. A 232 hitter....not horrible for a 9 hitter, but nobody thought he'd be a 9 hitter when he was signed. And combined with the assclowns hitting ahead of him, it makes it too easy for opposing starters and bullpens knowing once they get by Ortiz, there's little chance we can hurt them.

 

Synopsis....I know many are simply saying we're in a slump, and not getting any breaks, and no doubt there is some validity to that. But even when we were 20-8, I was bemoaning the bottom half of this order, saying sooner or later it would kill us.

 

And at some point, as the slump prolongs, we have to ask ourselves, despite as good a starting rotation as anyone has, with this lineup, a continuing proclivity to make HUGE errors that cost us games, and a pen that's both hurt and suspect, maybe it's not a slump, we're just a 500 team.

 

Sorry for the long post, but feel better putting it all down. Peace Sox fans!

[User Name]

Drew was literally signed to be the #9 hitter in this lineup. Who thought/said/argued he was anything but?

[pcbsoxfan]

yeah, thanks for correcting me. meant nobody expected him to hit like a 9 hitter, or a national league pitcher. and that's what he's been for the most part. was reasonable to expect a 250, 275 hitter with some extra base hits.

[User Name]

Well it's May 14th. Part of it has to do with him being rushed after the concussion. A lot of posters here (and a couple journalists) argued that he should have been given more AB's in the minors before coming up to the big club given time lost after the injury. They were right.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Uh...

 

Stephen Drew is hitting .300/.377/.500 in his past 17 games. Not sure about that comment about him hitting like a 9 hole hitter.

 

He had virtually zero ST.

 

He gets 40 AB at the MLB level, and then he takes off.

[Station 13]

Drew is one of the few that actually look good in May. Hey want that guy Iglesias that hits around the mendoza line against purgatory AAA pitchers?

[SoxSport]

Drew has been hot lately, but he had a slow start when Iglesias was going good--and got abruptly sent down. It looks like Iggy had problems adjusting to the change. Not unexpected for a youngster trying to prove himself and blocked by money.

 

My guess is Iggy is the better impact player with speed and defense. Going back to early season, when they were scraping out wins with smallball, defense and pitching--plus timely hitting. Right now, they look more like just a hitting team prone to slumps.

[mvp 78]

Iggy isn't blocked by money, he's blocked because he can't hit AAA pitching.

[Orange Juiced]

Lots going wrong for the Sox right now. Injuries, offense, pitching, you name it.

 

Total Runs Per Game:

- Sox: 4.64

- Opp: 4.13

- Net: +0.51

 

Total Runs Per Game in Sox' Wins:

- Sox: 6.23

- Opp: 2.41

- Net: +3.82

 

Total Runs Per Game in Sox' Losses:

- Sox: 2.59

- Opp: 6.35

- Net: -3.76

 

So their losses are almost an identical flip of their wins. The very things that helped them win are letting them down in their losses.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lots going wrong for the Sox right now. Injuries, offense, pitching, you name it.

 

Total Runs Per Game:

- Sox: 4.64

- Opp: 4.13

- Net: +0.51

 

Total Runs Per Game in Sox' Wins:

- Sox: 6.23

- Opp: 2.41

- Net: +3.82

 

Total Runs Per Game in Sox' Losses:

- Sox: 2.59

- Opp: 6.35

- Net: -3.76

 

So their losses are almost an identical flip of their wins. The very things that helped them win are letting them down in their losses.

 

I'm not sure what the point of this is?

 

When they lose, they average less runs than their opponents, and when they win they average more runs than their opponents?

[Station 13]

I'm not sure what the point of this is?

 

When they lose, they average less runs than their opponents, and when they win they average more runs than their opponents?

 

That's not exactly rocket science.

[Orange Juiced]

I'm not sure what the point of this is?

 

When they lose, they average less runs than their opponents, and when they win they average more runs than their opponents?

 

Hypothetical Scenario A:

 

In Sox' wins:

- Sox score 4.5 runs per game

- Sox allow 3.7 runs per game

 

In Sox' losses:

- Sox score 4.3 runs per game

- Sox allow 7.5 runs per game

 

Just from this simple data, what inference would you draw regarding the general cause of the Sox' losses?

 

Hypothetical Scenario B:

 

In Sox' wins:

- Sox score 6.5 runs per game

- Sox allow 4.2 runs per game

 

In Sox' losses:

- Sox score 2.1 runs per game

- Sox allow 4.4 runs per game

 

Just from this simple data, what inference would you draw regarding the general cause of the Sox' losses?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hypothetical Scenario A:

 

In Sox' wins:

- Sox score 4.5 runs per game

- Sox allow 3.7 runs per game

 

In Sox' losses:

- Sox score 4.3 runs per game

- Sox allow 7.5 runs per game

 

Just from this simple data, what inference would you draw regarding the general cause of the Sox' losses?

 

Hypothetical Scenario B:

 

In Sox' wins:

- Sox score 6.5 runs per game

- Sox allow 4.2 runs per game

 

In Sox' losses:

- Sox score 2.1 runs per game

- Sox allow 4.4 runs per game

 

Just from this simple data, what inference would you draw regarding the general cause of the Sox' losses?

 

So, you're saying in their losses, both the pitching and hitting are letting the team down, and when they win, both the offense and pitching are playing well?

 

That's generally the case, though. I don't think this is anything outside of the norm.

[redsoxfan3]

Pedroia has a .429 OBP this year. He has the best OBP on the team so far this year. What do we need from a lead off hitter? Speed and someone that can get on base. Pedroia has 8 SB's. I know Ellsbury has 12, but Pedroia has successfully stolen 8 out of 9 bases this year. He hasn't really hit for power this year, so why not move him to the lead off spot? He can get on base and can steal bases. I like Victorino in the two hole, he has been pretty successful so far this year. That means that our best power hitter, who has a .329 batting average will move to the three spot. Napoli can then bat clean up. He will not hit for a high average and will have his slumps, but he can still hit for power and is the the best option we have for clean up after Big Papi.

 

Here is my idea for the lineup:

 

Pedroia

Victorino

Ortiz

Napoli

Nava/Gomes

Salty/Ross/Lavarnway

Middlebrooks

Ellsbury

Drew

 

Obviously the lineup would change if Big Papi has one of his "scheduled days off." I like Pedroia leading off. Victorino and Ortiz have hit for good averages so far. Napoli was an RBI machine in April. Nava has been hitting better than anyone expected. He is second on the team in RBI's. Salty has a better average then Middlebrooks, which is why I have him in the six hole. Middlebrooks is in the seven hole because he has been struggling. I like the combination of Ellsbury and Drew in the 8 and 9 spots. Ellsbury has been struggling, but when he gets on base, he has been able to steal bases. Drew has been hitting the ball better as of late. I like the potential for Ellsbury and Drew being able to get on base for Pedroia. We need a change and I don't think this could hurt anything. I am sure there are different opinions and maybe better options, but this makes sense in my mind.

[mvp 78]

Pedroia hates leading off and his numbers fall off a cliff when doing so.

[Orange Juiced]

So, you're saying in their losses, both the pitching and hitting are letting the team down, and when they win, both the offense and pitching are playing well?

 

That's generally the case, though. I don't think this is anything outside of the norm.

 

Maybe not. But when we start evaluating what may be going wrong with a team, it can be helpful to look at numbers like this. In the hypotheticals I gave, in one scenario the offense stayed pretty steady but the pitching/defense went south, and vice-versa in the other. Those were obvious scenarios meant to illustrate the point, that sometimes numbers can really help show you where the problem lies.

 

This season, though, it's not just one thing. When the team has gone bad, it's gone bad all over. The starting pitching has been bad during this streak, and the hitting has struggled, and even defensively they've made errors they weren't making early in the year.

 

So I know this thread is about the lineup and that's fine - there are real problems there. But it's everything right now pretty much outside of Lester, Buchholz, Pedey, and Papi.

[redsoxfan3]

Pedroia hates leading off and his numbers fall off a cliff when doing so.

 

Says who? I understand it might not be the most desirable spot for him to hit, but when he was asked last year if he would hit lead off, he said he would do it. Pedroia is the type of player that will do what he needs to do to help the team, whether that is bat cleanup or bat lead off.

 

You say his numbers fall off of a cliff when he bats lead off. Well that is a small sample size. Before the start of last year, he hit .269 in the three spot, this year he is hitting .338 hitting in the three spot. He has a career .253 average batting lead off, but that is only in 79 career games. Point being, he has had a small sample size in hitting nothing but the two spot. It might not be his favorite thing to do, but he is a professional player and a great hitter. There is no doubt in my mind that he would find a way to be successful.

 

Everyone is talking about shuffling the lineup around, well this might be a way to do it. Like I said, some people may have different opinions and that is fine. I am just throwing out ideas.

[Orange Juiced]

Pedroia hates leading off and his numbers fall off a cliff when doing so.

 

To your point, here are his career numbers by spot in the lineup:

 

1st - 354 pa, .253/.318/.375/.693

2nd - 2768 pa, .305/.374/.463/.837

3rd - 529 pa, .315/.380/.463/.843

4th - 139 pa, .397/.442/.675/1.117

5th - 4 pa, .250/.250/.500/.750

6th - 0 pa (amazing!)

7th - 8 pa, .143/.250/.143/.393

8th - 44 pa, .237/.326/.316/.641

9th - 153 pa, .304/.382/.430/.811

 

Too few PAs to judge his long-term effectiveness in the 4-hole, so from this it looks like 2nd or 3rd is clearly the ideal spot for him in the lineup.

[BigPapi]

I agree totally with Middlebrooks. Besides that 3 hr game in toronto the second game of the season, hes been hitting 200 with only 9 rbis. Not too mention all the ks like you mentioned in your post.

[jung]

Well, I have a hard time with calling WMB a defensive liability this year. I was as critical as I could have been of his defense last year. So, I do see and have seen his defensive issues. However he has made tremendous improvement in his defense during the off season. I don't see how that would not be acknowledged. IMO, he is now a solid defender at 3rd base, not perfect but solid.

 

As for his hitting, his issues have been well documented here. However I don't see any realistic options to WMB at 3rd at this point. Maybe they brought him here a tad early. Frankly it is unusual for the Sox to bring a young player up a bit before his time. I think they figured they could polish that apple well enough up here in the bigs, did not want to revisit the issue of a 3rd baseman from outside the organization and did not want Youk any longer. Right or wrong I don't see a viable option at this point and I would not send WMB down at this point. They are committed to him and he knows it. IMO, it is too late to consider options like sending him down especially without a replacement candidate worth considering.

 

Ells needs to be dropped in the order at this point. My choice is Vic at the top and possibly Nava in certain situations. Pedey does not like lead off. He carries enough of the load for this team. I don't want to see him batting lead off. I can swallow the idea that he is a more natural 2 hitter than a 3 hitter. He is not all that out of place as a 3 though.

[redsoxrules]

I'd put Victorino 1st and Pedey 2nd

[SoxSport]

Nava 1, Pedey 2. Maybe the 2 best on-base guys, with Ortiz. Vic has never been a high on base guy, though he might be better than Ells right now. Farrell likes speed at the top, so Ells, Vic and Pedey will probably stay there--at least two of them anyways.

[BSN07]

Vic

Pedey

Drew

Napoli

Ortiz

WMB

Salty

LF

Ellsbury

 

It will never happen, just making one up for fun.

[User Name]

Drew third? I want some of what you're smoking.....

[a700hitter]

Vic

Pedey

Drew

Napoli

Ortiz

WMB

Salty

LF

Ellsbury

 

It will never happen, just making one up for fun.

It should never happen because it is terrible. Any lineup for this team that has Ortiz batting 5th is a terrible lineup.

[bill29]

I agree totally with Middlebrooks. Besides that 3 hr game in toronto the second game of the season, hes been hitting 200 with only 9 rbis. Not too mention all the ks like you mentioned in your post.

 

I agree. Good post.

[Northern Star]

Drew third? I want some of what you're smoking.....

 

He obviously must have meant JD....

[jung]

Vic has for the most part changed his approach at the plate (with the exception of AB's when he is purposefully swinging for the fences). He has been hitting to put the ball in play and dump it into the outfield for base hits. I think he would be fine at the top of the order and would surely be better than Ells. I would like Pedey second...maybe Nava, depending on who is pitching.

 

Desperate for somebody to protect Ortiz but we just don't have anybody. As I type, Rodney walks Ortiz on four pitches. I think we weil see more and more of that.

[BSN07]

I made my lineup off of who is hot right now. I decided to go out of the box instead of suggesting something slightly different then what had already been posted. Your guys are killing my creative juices haha

 

And yes User, you should always want some of what I smokin

[SoxSport]

I made my lineup off of who is hot right now. I decided to go out of the box instead of suggesting something slightly different then what had already been posted. Your guys are killing my creative juices haha

 

QUOTE]

 

They never have changed their lineup according to who is hot and cold. That seems to be a FO policy unaffected by who is manager. Which is why Ellsbury will probably stay at leadoff.

 

Nobody really knows who dictates field policy-- the FO or the manager--in Boston, because the media doesn't talk about it. I suspect it's the FO more than the manager which sets the lineup, and even controls pitch limits, reliever rotations, etc.