Hanrahan's Injury

[iortiz]

Are you getting fed up with the late inning roller coaster of disaster of the last few years. A good closer is a very stabilizing force for a team. People that think otherwise don't realize tht teams that go from closer to closer on a year by year basis have inconsistent performances from year to year. They will point to the Rays and say that they have been successful, but with Rodney s***ing the bed 3 out of 4 games and turning back into Rodney, they have lost several games late and they are fighting Toronto for last place. Will they right their ship? Yes, if Rodney rights his ship or they replace him. The Rays rolled the dice and got lucky with pigs like Farnsworth and Rodney for a few years. It's not a good strtategy IMO. Get a good closer without arm trouble and lock him up for a few years.

 

1000000 times this.

 

We have been spending tons of money in closers anyways. Why experiment with a bulk of fat wounded thieves when you had the cream of the cream.

 

I'll never get it.

[Orange Juiced]

The only thing standing between him and being a good closer is doing it on the field-- the biggest hurdle of all.

 

I understand. But he's been terrific in high-leverage situations. This year, here's what he's done in high-leverage situations (as given by b-ref):

 

21 plate appearances

2 hits, 2 walks, 4 total base-runners

opponents hitting .105, getting on base at a .190 clip

allowing opponents to hit .506 ops

 

So he has been pretty dominant in hi-lev situations this year. I am willing to bet that he'd transition nicely into the closer's role.

 

Of course, if the Sox never have a close lead in the 9th we'll never know.

[Dojji]

Cheap? They're paying Hanrahan 7 mill.

 

The problem wasn't letting go of Papelbon. He is not a mythical figure that they were not going to be able to replace. The problem wasn't getting an adequated replacement.

 

 

While that's technically true, a large part of that problem is that the list of "adequate replacements" is a lot smaller than Red Sox fans believe it is.

[Orange Juiced]

Some people will never understand this: A closer is a guy who can get outs in pressure situations. Not a mythical creature, like a unicorn.

 

And for the record, Bailey will come back after the minimum 15 days. A lot of the whining will stop if he can hold up reasonably the rest of the seaosn,.

 

See my previous post here (http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/17323-hanrahans-injury-5.html#post838783). Tazawa *has* been getting guys out in pressure (high-leverage) situations. In dominant fashion, actually.

 

As for Bailey, he's been great this year and I want him back ASAP. But I'm not at all confident that he'll be back when you say he will. This tweet from Gordon Edes is not encouraging:

 

"Bailey said he played light game of catch Thurs, has no idea how soon he'll be back, but implied won't be ready to come off on May 14"

 

[iortiz]

The only thing standing between him and being a good closer is doing it on the field-- the biggest hurdle of all.

 

People will never understand that pitching in the last inning is totally different than in the 6,7,8. numbers simply go downhill mostly in pressure situations. Look at Aceves case. Great mid inning reliever pitcher and as a closer a total failure. Tons examples out there.

 

Hopefully Tazawa experiment works out.

[User Name]

While that's technically true, a large part of that problem is that the list of "adequate replacements" is a lot smaller than Red Sox fans believe it is.

 

Current closers the Red Sox had a the possibility of acquiring after Papelbon departed:

 

Joe Nathan

Rafael Betancourt

Rafael Soriano

Casey Janssen

Andrew Bailey

Joel Hanrahan

 

Among those, they chose the fat one and the injury-prone one. There are some others that probably escape me, but Jesus, the Papelbon whining is reaching critical mass.

 

The contract is still stupid, and they could have replaced him adequately, but didn't.

 

There's also the fact that, by all accounts, Papelbon did not want to come back after the 2011 debacle. He didn't even give the Red Sox a chance to make an offer.

 

That's one thing that fans refuse to accept. Players are human beings, not robots, and they get to choose where they will play.

[User Name]

People will never understand that pitching in the last inning is totally different than in the 6,7,8. numbers simply go downhill mostly in pressure situations. Look at Aceves case. Great mid inning reliever pitcher and as a closer a total failure. Tons examples out there.

 

Hopefully Tazawa experiment works out.

 

Dude, most closers are former 8th inning guys who earn the closer role:

 

Mariano set up for Wetteland.

Andrew Bailey was a set-up man.

Joe Nathan was a set-up man.

Jim Johnsonn was a set-up man.

K-Rod was a set-up man.

Sergio Romo (who makes next to nothing and is extremely effective) was a set-up man.

 

A closer is a reliever who can get outs in pressure situations. There's no reinventing the wheel here.

[Dojji]

Current closers the Red Sox had a the possibility of acquiring after Papelbon departed:

 

Joe Nathan

Rafael Betancourt

Rafael Soriano

Casey Janssen

Andrew Bailey

Joel Hanrahan

 

 

That's a pretty weak list.

[iortiz]

if you going are to spend 8-12 M/y in closers anyway, why not to lock out the one who has been solid, durable and mostly PROVED in your environment. Pap is still young and with so a lot of experience under his belt in arguably the toughest division to pitch in the last inning. The more I see Pap's numbers the more I think he deserves that contract. It's a shame he's wasting his time in Philly, they ain't going anywhere anyways.

[Station 13]

Amazing, Bailey continues to get injured year after year. I'd like to have him back soon, but how many times is enough with the unstable situation? I hope Tazawa works out and I am confident it will.

[Orange Juiced]

if you going are to spend 8-12 M/y in closers anyway, why not to lock out the one who has been solid, durable and mostly PROVED in your environment. Pap is still young and with so a lot of experience under his belt in arguably the toughest division to pitch in the last inning. The more I see Pap's numbers the more I think he deserves that contract. It's a shame he's wasting his time in Philly, they ain't going anywhere anyways.

 

Pap was great - superb numbers, durable, brought the attitude, everything. Unfortunately, he didn't want to stay with the Red Sox so he's no longer in the picture.

[User Name]

That's a pretty weak list.

 

You only need one.

[iortiz]

Dude, most closers are former 8th inning guys who earn the closer role:

 

Mariano set up for Wetteland.

Andrew Bailey was a set-up man.

Joe Nathan was a set-up man.

Jim Johnsonn was a set-up man.

K-Rod was a set-up man.

Sergio Romo (who makes next to nothing and is extremely effective) was a set-up man.

 

A closer is a reliever who can get outs in pressure situations. There's no reinventing the wheel here.

 

that's not the point at all. Point is that you are in experimentation mode in this regard year after year and wasting tons of money too. When you have the solution to your problem, you just don't drop it. You just keep the ship that way.

[Station 13]

What bothers me is they keep going after these high risks that flops here. Just roll with Tazawa now. The first thing with relievers is pounding strikes, and have good stuff to back it up. Tazawa has both.

[iortiz]

Pap was great - superb numbers, durable, brought the attitude, everything. Unfortunately, he didn't want to stay with the Red Sox so he's no longer in the picture.

It's all about money. They did't even offer a contract. They (FO) didn't want him. He said that tons of times.

[iortiz]

Pap is great - superb numbers, durable, brought the attitude, everything. Unfortunately, he didn't want to stay with the Red Sox so he's no longer in the picture.

 

Fixed

[a700hitter]

Pap was great - superb numbers, durable, brought the attitude, everything. Unfortunately, he didn't want to stay with the Red Sox so he's no longer in the picture.

Do you really think that he longed to settle in Philadelphia and he had been watching "House Hunters: Philadelphia" in his final year with the Red Sox? or do you think it might have had something to do with the fact that no one from the Sox even made an appointment with him to discuss his future? I think that it might have been the latter. There aren'tmany players that try to escape from Boston to get to Philly. That town sucks.

[User Name]

that's not the point at all. Point is that you are in experimentation mode in this regard year after year and wasting tons of money too. When you have the solution to your problem, you just don't drop it. You just keep the ship that way.

 

Yeah you do. Lots of teams let go of expensive closers and find adequate replacements all the time. As much as you try to make Papelbon some irreplaceable figure, he isn't. This is squarely on the Red Sox' inability to identify a suitable replacement when they see it.

 

Again, Joe Nathan and Rafael Soriano were available in back-to-back off-seasons. They are both proven, effective, and cheaper, on shorter contracts.

[a700hitter]

Fixed

Excellent point.

[mvp 78]

Papelbon didn't even want to play here anymore. Get over it.

[a700hitter]

Papelbon didn't even want to play here anymore. Get over it.

 

Of course, you would know what he wanted.

[Orange Juiced]

Do you really think that he longed to settle in Philadelphia and he had been watching "House Hunters: Philadelphia" in his final year with the Red Sox? or do you think it might have had something to do with the fact that no one from the Sox even made an appointment with him to discuss his future? I think that it might have been the latter. There aren'tmany players that try to escape from Boston to get to Philly. That town sucks.

 

As far as I recall (I grant that my memory could be faulty here), Papelbon didn't even give the Sox a chance to match Philly's offer. It seemed like he wanted out pretty bad.

 

But whatever, what's done is done. Paps is long gone and he's not coming back here (I don't think anyway). The starting pitching imploded in September of 2011, the entire team basically sucked in 2012, and we have what we have. There is a very nice potential solution for this in-house in Tazawa. Hopefully Bailey comes back soon and is healthy the rest of the way, but I have confidence in Tazawa to get the job done.

[User Name]

None of us do, but the writing is on the wall. He said himself he never gave the Sox a chance to counter-offer.

[iortiz]

Yeah you do. Lots of teams let go of expensive closers and find adequate replacements all the time. As much as you try to make Papelbon some irreplaceable figure, he isn't. This is squarely on the Red Sox' inability to identify a suitable replacement when they see it.

 

Again, Joe Nathan and Rafael Soriano were available in back-to-back off-seasons. They are both proven, effective, and cheaper, on shorter contracts.

 

I just can not find ANY closer (aside Mo) with Pap's numbers... and when I say numbers I mean it in all the categories (SV, ERA, IP, time, division, etc.) through 9 years in the ALE. You just won't find him dude. Since you won't find this guy, ALL the new guys you bring would be experiments, like has been since his departure, that's all my point and case. Unfortunately as I've been saying all those experiments have cost us tons of money, prospects, in some cases screwing some player's careers, and most important, WINS.

[iortiz]

Of course, you would know what he wanted.

 

As I said, several times he said that our great FO didn't even showed interest in his services, so he had to consider other options. Plain and simple.

[User Name]

I just can not find ANY closer (aside Mo) with Pap's numbers... and when I say numbers I mean it in all the categories (SV, ERA, IP, time, division, etc.) through 9 years in the ALE. You just won't find him dude. Since you won't find this guy, ALL the new guys you bring would be experiments, like has been since his departure, that's all my point and case. Unfortunately as I've been saying all those experiments have cost us tons of money, prospects, in some cases screwing some player's careers, and most important, WINS.

 

This is the problem you (and many others) have with player evaluation. What he DID is not what's important. What's important is what a player's projected TO DO over the life of a contract.

 

I couldn't care less about the past. All they need is an effective closer. It's that simple.

[Orange Juiced]

Yeah you do. Lots of teams let go of expensive closers and find adequate replacements all the time. As much as you try to make Papelbon some irreplaceable figure, he isn't. This is squarely on the Red Sox' inability to identify a suitable replacement when they see it.

 

Again, Joe Nathan and Rafael Soriano were available in back-to-back off-seasons. They are both proven, effective, and cheaper, on shorter contracts.

 

Nathan would have been a massive risk. He missed the entire 2010 season with an injury. He missed over a month in 2011 with an injury and compiled an era of 4.84 and the worst k/9 number (8.7) of his career. He signed for $7 million a year in the offseason between 2011 and 2012.

 

Please tell me you weren't advocating that the Sox sign a 37-year old pitcher coming off two major injuries and a season where he put up the worst numbers of his career to a $7 million a year contract to be the team's closer in 2012-13.

[a700hitter]

As far as I recall (I grant that my memory could be faulty here), Papelbon didn't even give the Sox a chance to match Philly's offer. It seemed like he wanted out pretty bad.

 

But whatever, what's done is done. Paps is long gone and he's not coming back here (I don't think anyway). The starting pitching imploded in September of 2011, the entire team basically sucked in 2012, and we have what we have. There is a very nice potential solution for this in-house in Tazawa. Hopefully Bailey comes back soon and is healthy the rest of the way, but I have confidence in Tazawa to get the job done.

When your current employer doesn't contact you in the period when they have exclusive negotiating right before the FA period begins, that speaks volumes. Did the Sox ever indicate that they wished to make an offer or match an offer? No. Some times common sense has to take over. I am not going to suspend logic and make believe that he hated Boston for unspecified reasons. Parking can be a bitch:lol:, but he probably had that covered. If he had moved closer to home or been a Philly native, I could see some logic, but those aren't the facts. The Sox expressed no interest in him and he took the first good offer that he got.

 

Even if all of this make believe stuff that Paps wanted out Boston were true, money has been known to change players minds. Manny hated Boston, never wanted to come here and always wanted to leave, but he was here for 7 1/2 years. It's almost always about the money.

[Orange Juiced]

When your current employer doesn't contact you in the period when they have exclusive negotiating right before the FA period begins, that speaks volumes. Did the Sox ever indicate that they wished to make an offer or match an offer? No. Some times common sense has to take over. I am not going to suspend logic and make believe that he hated Boston for unspecified reasons. Parking can be a bitch:lol:, but he probably had that covered. If he had moved closer to home or been a Philly native, I could see some logic, but those aren't the facts. The Sox expressed no interest in him and he took the first good offer that he got.

 

Even if all of this make believe stuff that Paps wanted out Boston were true, money has been known to change players minds. Manny hated Boston, never wanted to come here and always wanted to leave, but he was here for 7 1/2 years. It's almost always about the money.

 

Good points. So ok, though, I'm curious. How much would you have been willing to sign Paps for?

[a700hitter]

As I said, several times he said that our great FO didn't even showed interest in his services, so he had to consider other options. Plain and simple.

And why would he tell Philly to wait on their offer when he knew the Sox had no interest. It was a great contract, and he was smart not to let the ink dry on it. The Phillies had a big offer out to Ryan Madson and they withdrew it when they went after Papelbon. There was no upside in asking the Sox to match. He knew the answer. Ben was quoted in the paper saying that if Papelbon got a great offer and signed elsewhere, he would understand. Seems like a strong signal.