2013 Spring Training

[mvp 78]

Aww, come on sbf. I had brains enough to spell his name correctly. Stephen is so lucky to have a concussion or else he and his retired brother would have to suffer your wrath. I just don't wish that on anyone! Not even the "fragile" Drew brothers.

 

You should have gone with:

 

Fred, if your prostate was dynamite, you could finally sink California into the Pacific.

[mvp 78]

How is blowing away $millions in control for a few weeks of service this year any different from the whacky decisions about FA players that the Red Sox have made and we have criticized them for as regularly as clockwork. Even the low estimates of the cost of having JBJ start the season in Boston runs into the $millions.

 

Frankly at least for my money, he looks like he could not only use a little seasoning at AAA but could use a year's worth of bulk before facing the rigors of an MLB season. I don't see how the risk/reward adds up. Then again, the Sox have not been the most ardent arbiters of risk/reward.

 

The Sox tend to lock up long term the young players they like (Pedey, Lester, Buch). Worrying about team control seems like wasted effort to me.

[jung]

But making JBJ the fourth outfielder robs him of valuable playing time. We can't be thinking that after one year of AA he can afford to do that either and that is the rub on JBJ. He still needs playing time. So bringing him up now forces him into the everyday lineup here. I don't think he has seen anywhere enough pitches and will just end up ML cannon fodder this year if we bring him up now. As I mentioned earlier I would also like to see him add another year of bulk as well.

[VA Sox Fan]

You should have gone with:

 

Fred, if your prostate was dynamite, you could finally sink California into the Pacific.

 

Good one. I'm not as sharp as you bro!

 

I try not to stoop to his elementary school level with the personal/infantile insults.

[a700hitter]

But making JBJ the fourth outfielder robs him of valuable playing time. We can't be thinking that after one year of AA he can afford to do that either and that is the rub on JBJ. He still needs playing time. So bringing him up now forces him into the everyday lineup here. I don't think he has seen anywhere enough pitches and will just end up ML cannon fodder this year if we bring him up now. As I mentioned earlier I would also like to see him add another year of bulk as well.

As our 4th OFer, he'll get 300- 400 ABs. Every year we have plenty of playing time for our 4th OFer. 300-400 ABs at the MLB level is a nice way to break in without too much pressure on his shoulders.

[mvp 78]

As our 4th OFer, he'll get 300- 400 ABs. Every year we have plenty of playing time for our 4th OFer. 300-400 ABs at the MLB level is a nice way to break in without too much pressure on his shoulders.

 

Gomez can't hit RHP. Ells tends to get injured. Victorino is in his 30's. there should be more than enough AB's for JBJ...

[a700hitter]

Gomez can't hit RHP. Ells tends to get injured. Victorino is in his 30's. there should be more than enough AB's for JBJ...

I can't remember the last time that our 4th OFer would not get at least 300 - 400 ABs. Gomes is a platoon type player, plus Victorino is much better from the right side of the plate than the left side.

[Bellhorn04]

I can't remember the last time that our 4th OFer would not get at least 300 - 400 ABs.

 

I know we're all trying to forget 2012, but here are the top 5 AB's for outfielders:

 

Ross 476

Ellsbury 303

Nava 267

Sweeney 204

Pods 199

 

I think the only way a 4th OFer reaches 300 AB's is if there's a long DL stint for one of the first 3.

[a700hitter]

I know we're all trying to forget 2012, but here are the top 5 AB's for outfielders:

 

Ross 476

Ellsbury 303

Nava 267

Sweeney 204

Pods 199

 

I think the only way a 4th OFer reaches 300 AB's is if there's a long DL stint for one of the first 3.

ABs got split by Nava, Sweeney, and Pods because a) all 3 suck and they had their own injury issues. They combined for 670 ABs -- a competent talented 4th OFer could easily have taken 300 - 400 ABs.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Guys - I think something we're all missing here is this:

 

"Yet, even if he starts with the big club prior to April 12 and ends up spending the 20 or more days in the minors, free agency eligibility won’t come until after ’19."

 

So, if Ortiz is out, there is always the option to bring up Bradley, then send him back to Pawtucket the day Ortiz gets back, leave him there for 20 days while this lineup doesn't need the extra stick, and then bring him back up once he's fulfilled that 20 days in the minors. That would both allow us to start out the season with him, have him up here while Ortiz is out for the entirety of his leave, and still not lose a year of control.

[a700hitter]

Guys - I think something we're all missing here is this:

 

"Yet, even if he starts with the big club prior to April 12 and ends up spending the 20 or more days in the minors, free agency eligibility won’t come until after ’19."

 

So, if Ortiz is out, there is always the option to bring up Bradley, then send him back to Pawtucket the day Ortiz gets back, leave him there for 20 days while this lineup doesn't need the extra stick, and then bring him back up once he's fulfilled that 20 days in the minors. That would both allow us to start out the season with him, have him up here while Ortiz is out for the entirety of his leave, and still not lose a year of control.

Interesting. Good information, SFF.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Gomez can't hit RHP. Ells tends to get injured. Victorino is in his 30's. there should be more than enough AB's for JBJ...

 

Not to mention that Victorino can't hit RHP very well, either.

 

I said it in another thread (or maybe this one, a while ago).

 

If Gomes plays 90 games in LF, Victorino plays 140 in RF, and Ellsbury plays 145 in CF, that's 110 games right there that Bradley plays. And that's assuming health for each of the 3 OF.

 

The season is 24 weeks long after removing the ASB, so he's essentially playing 9 games every two weeks to get in 110 games/season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Interesting. Good information, SFF.

 

And just to be clear, that's an aggregate 20 days over the 6 seasons until he reaches FA. That's not 20 days this year, or 20 days in succession.

[jacksonianmarch]

I doubt he ends up starting the yr in Boston. I bet he goes to AAA, gets on a roll and they bring him up hot. No need to have him endure what Pedroia did in his rookie yr

[SoxFanForsyth]

I doubt he ends up starting the yr in Boston. I bet he goes to AAA, gets on a roll and they bring him up hot. No need to have him endure what Pedroia did in his rookie yr

 

To be fair, each player is different. If the Sox thought that Bradley would hit .117 for a month, this wouldn't even be a consideration because it's partly replacing Ortiz's offensive production. Not his power, but at least having someone out there that can get on base and play elite D, bring other aspects to the game. If they thought he was just going to bomb for a month, then I don't think they'd even think about this.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's a rookie. No matter what they think, he's not someone who can be counted on for anything more than a flier for the most part. That's not a bad thing, but he could dominate, he could suck or he could do anything inbetween.

[BSN07]

How are they sacrificing games if they can sign him for as long as they want to? The Sox aren't the Sisters of the Poor...

 

Again for the like the 1000X, Scott Boras is his agent. Still feel like they can hack out and extension?

[BSN07]

I would be handing him the 4th outfielder/platoon spot, not a full time starting position. If he shits himself, there are 3 other outfielder ahead of him. That is completely consistent with my philosophy regarding prospects. You can never remember my positions or arguments correctly, so you should probably stop trying, and instead, you should concentrate your efforts on your own ideas and thoughts which could use some work.

 

So you instead want to give one of the best prospects in the organization a part time position, instead of him getting everyday AB's in AAA where he doesn't have a ton experience? Please try again. I admire the effort though.

[kapsis21]

So you instead want to give one of the best prospects in the organization a part time position, instead of him getting everyday AB's in AAA where he doesn't have a ton experience? Please try again. I admire the effort though.

 

you are on a mission seems like.

[BSN07]

you are on a mission seems like.

 

It just makes no sense to me. They are basically telling me that no one on the current roster ahead of Bradley can provide league average production for two weeks in April. I find that very hard to believe. Another thing I can't understand is why they would want to give up a whole guaranteed season for those two weeks. Scott Boras is his agent. No one in their right mind should ever bank on being able to sort out an extension with any kind of Boras Agent. Especially when the player is as talented as almost everyone thinks he will be. Is it possible? Yes. But it would be the exception to the rule. And to me, to avoid all of that, I can wait two weeks.

 

Now if it goes past the deadline and we get into May and there is an obvious role for him and he doesn't get called up, I will be right there with the rest wondering "why isn't he up yet?"

[Dojji]

As our 4th OFer, he'll get 300- 400 ABs. Every year we have plenty of playing time for our 4th OFer. 300-400 ABs at the MLB level is a nice way to break in without too much pressure on his shoulders.

 

That worked really well when we tried it with Willy Mo Pena.

 

Seriously.

 

Sure, Wily Mo brought a lot of his own problems with him, but let's not pretend that the inconsistent playing time he got early in 07 didn't hurt him either. He was coming off a great year in 06, and wound up relegated to the bench for most of the year because he couldn't get started and a team fighting for the World Series wasn't about to risk that by letting him play for multiple consecutive weeks to see if he could get it going. I wonder how his career would have gone if he had.

 

if JBJ gets himself into a situation where the manager is reluctant to give him at bats because he hasn't been doing much with them and the 3 starters have, which is very possible and in fact more likely than not given his lack of seasoning, this could quickly fester and turn into a disaster.

 

I would much rather have an inferior player backup the outfield and leave JBJ in the minors than do anything permanent to that kid's career. The risk is not worth the reward unless you're willing to ante up and bet large that the kid is going to be a productive regular this year.

[Dojji]

He's a rookie. No matter what they think, he's not someone who can be counted on for anything more than a flier for the most part. That's not a bad thing, but he could dominate, he could suck or he could do anything inbetween.

 

right. The team is certainly not going to put itself in a position where it has to COUNT on Bradley. They should have learned that lesson with Kalish, even if they didn't learn it with Coco Crisp (seriously, I loved Covelli, he was dynamite in 07, but to pretend he was as advertized at the time of trade is to engage in a delusion).

[Dojji]

It just makes no sense to me. They are basically telling me that no one on the current roster ahead of Bradley can provide league average production for two weeks in April. I find that very hard to believe. Another thing I can't understand is why they would want to give up a whole guaranteed season for those two weeks. Scott Boras is his agent. No one in their right mind should ever bank on being able to sort out an extension with any kind of Boras Agent. Especially when the player is as talented as almost everyone thinks he will be. Is it possible? Yes. But it would be the exception to the rule. And to me, to avoid all of that, I can wait two weeks.

 

Now if it goes past the deadline and we get into May and there is an obvious role for him and he doesn't get called up, I will be right there with the rest wondering "why isn't he up yet?"

 

I won't.

 

Perhaps it's because I don't get the chance to watch the games because of my work schedule at the moment, but when I think about calling up Bradley I can't help but think of the fact that he only managed about a .800 OPS in AA ball -- the level Ellsbury blew away prior to being called up.

 

I'm mostly with Jung on this one. If I was judging his talent I'd call him an exciting prospect who would benefit a great deal from a full year in the minors. In my mind, Bradley and Bogaerts, along with at least one of Webster and DLR, should be slated to cameo in September with an eye towards evaluating them for starting roles next year. To move any faster than that is to take unnecessary risks at a time when there is little to gain.

[a700hitter]

That worked really well when we tried it with Willy Mo Pena.

 

Seriously.

 

Sure, Wily Mo brought a lot of his own problems with him, but let's not pretend that the inconsistent playing time he got early in 07 didn't hurt him either. He was coming off a great year in 06, and wound up relegated to the bench for most of the year because he couldn't get started and a team fighting for the World Series wasn't about to risk that by letting him play for multiple consecutive weeks to see if he could get it going. I wonder how his career would have gone if he had.

 

if JBJ gets himself into a situation where the manager is reluctant to give him at bats because he hasn't been doing much with them and the 3 starters have, which is very possible and in fact more likely than not given his lack of seasoning, this could quickly fester and turn into a disaster.

 

I would much rather have an inferior player backup the outfield and leave JBJ in the minors than do anything permanent to that kid's career. The risk is not worth the reward unless you're willing to ante up and bet large that the kid is going to be a productive regular this year.

Seriously, you are comparing Bradley to Wily Mo who was complete project? Terrible terrible analogy. Bradley can contribute with his glove, arm and speed even if he doesn't hit initially. Wily Mo was a train wreck in every aspect except for HR distance. Tito was afraid to put him out their because he played every ball like it was a hand grenade. Inconsistent playing time was not Wily Mo's problem.

[Dojji]

eriously, you are comparing Bradley to Wily Mo who was complete project? Terrible terrible analogy. Bradley can contribute with his glove, arm and speed even if he doesn't hit initially. Wily Mo was a train wreck in every aspect except for HR distance. Tito was afraid to put him out their because he played every ball like it was a hand grenade. Inconsistent playing time was not Wily Mo's problem.

 

Inconsistent playing time was exactly Wily Mo's problem. What you're ignoring is that that problem didn't start in 2007. In a perfect universe he should have debuted for the first time in roughly the 2006 season. He was brought up way too young and it killed him. He was asked to develop almost entirely at the big league level and was far too raw for that.

 

I don't think JBJ is anywhere near as raw as Pena, but the idea that you can just shove a prospect into the 4th OF slot should have died with Pena anyway, because what Pena gives is a career that is a literal case study in exactly why young, extremely talented players shouldn't be brought to the big leagues to play bench roles.

 

I don't see anywhere near enough to be gained in terms of season objectives, long term objectives, or career progress for Bradley, to make me think he should be up before September unless he blows the doors off and forces the organization's hand in Pawtucket.

 

And to be perfectly blunt, my personal prediction is that he starts the year with the Sea Dogs. I see a kid that still has some work to do in AA.

[a700hitter]

Inconsistent playing time was exactly Wily Mo's problem. What you're ignoring is that that problem didn't start in 2007. In a perfect universe he should have debuted for the first time in roughly the 2006 season. He was brought up way too young and it killed him. He was asked to develop almost entirely at the big league level and was far too raw for that.

 

I don't think JBJ is anywhere near as raw as Pena, but the idea that you can just shove a prospect into the 4th OF slot should have died with Pena anyway, because what Pena gives is a career that is a literal case study in exactly why young, extremely talented players shouldn't be brought to the big leagues to play bench roles.

 

I don't see anywhere near enough to be gained in terms of season objectives, long term objectives, or career progress for Bradley, to make me think he should be up before September unless he blows the doors off and forces the organization's hand in Pawtucket.

 

And to be perfectly blunt, my personal prediction is that he starts the year with the Sea Dogs. I see a kid that still has some work to do in AA.

He is not raw at all. His game is very refined. He has plate discipline that Wily mo couldn't dream of. IMO, he has better plate discipline than Ells.

[Dojji]

Good for him. I'm sure he'll help the Sea Dogs a great deal and will quickly be promoted to AAA once he's proven he should be there, by early May at the latest would be my guess. From there, he has all summer to prove he should be a September callup, and would obviously be the first guy up if someone got hurt.

 

If there's such a thing as a playoff roster for the Red Sox, I don't hate his chances to be on it. But the question of whether he should be called up out of camp or in May is juuuuuust a bit premature.

 

It's Spring Training people. Taking what you see in the Spring at face value is not wise. People talking about JBJ as if he was some sure thing right now are getting ahead of themselves. I see no reason not to let the system play out as normal.

[jung]

The very very best you could reasonably hope for would be that JBJ would go nuts for a month maybe until the ML scouts had a book on him, had it distributed to the pitchers who would then go after his weaknesses wholesale and likely turn him into a whiffing machine.

 

I don't see anything about JBJ that suggests he would miss out on that vital period of ML activity where the player has to overcome real live ML pitchers coming at him with the knowledge of his current set of hitting weaknesses in their back pockets. It basically stops them all dead in their tracks, particularly if they have little experience with pitchers of that caliber in the first place.

 

Worst case, he gets hurt somewhere along the way or just does not adapt well to being thrown into a ML regular season and does poorly right from the start. If my GM did that to me AND cost me some millions doing it, I'd seriously consider firing his ass. I might fire his ass even if the best case scenario played out.

[Dojji]

I might fire his ass even if the best case scenario played out.

 

If he's doing it in a season where the team isn't likely to go the distance and so there's little to gain in the bigger picture from taking that kind of risk, I might can him as well. And I tend to be a very forgiving sort, at least when I'm not confronted by terminal stupidity.

 

If a GM doesn't have the stones to disappoint fans looking for a quick fix and run the team with his eyes on the team's medium to long term goals, he's not the right person to manage any ballteam I happened to own.

[Station 13]

Anyone paying attention to Vazquez? Dude just threw out another ******* trying to stick his paws in the cookie jar.