2013 Red Sox predictions.

[rjortiz]

Because they have the awesomeness of Steven Wright at their 10th option.

 

I'm so excited to see this depth in action.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Because they have the awesomeness of Steven Wright at their 10th option.

 

I'm so excited to see this depth in action.

 

Morales, Aceves, De La Rosa, Webster, Britton, Hernandez, Wright.

 

Please, do tell me who has better depth than that?

 

Nice contribution to the thread, by the way.

[rjortiz]

Morales, Aceves, De La Rosa, Webster, Britton, Hernandez, Wright.

 

Please, do tell me who has better depth than that?

 

Nice contribution to the thread, by the way.

 

The Nationals.

 

Strasburg, Gonzalez, Haren, Zimmerman, Detweiler. Oh, nevermind. We're talking about the awesomeness of our 6th through 10th starters. You know, the guys that aren't counted on to start.

[Palodios]

The Nationals.

 

Strasburg, Gonzalez, Haren, Zimmerman, Detweiler. Oh, nevermind. We're talking about the awesomeness of our 6th through 10th starters. You know, the guys that aren't counted on to start.

 

That's like saying the Tigers have the best bench because of Cabrera and Fielder.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Nationals.

 

Strasburg, Gonzalez, Haren, Zimmerman, Detweiler. Oh, nevermind. We're talking about the awesomeness of our 6th through 10th starters. You know, the guys that aren't counted on to start.

 

Oh. Wow. Funny. Thought I said depth, not rotation. That was just a dumb response.

[User Name]

That's like saying the Tigers have the best bench because of Cabrera and Fielder.

 

Well put.

[jacksonianmarch]

I see, since counting on Franklin Morales as a starter has gone well at all times, especially in big spots, oh wait. And btw, you should have lumped his starts in with the detritus you'll be ridding from last yr's crap fest, but you didnt.. And Rubby de la Rosa is the second coming is he? The guy with 2 big league pitches, profiles more as a closer, has minimal big league experience and who he himself is also coming off TJS. You're touting depth that isnt really there because you cannot tout the 1-5 that are slated to take the bump come April. Dude, this is a pretty weak argument in total.

 

Come midseason, you should be able to see what the true colors of your real depth is, especially with your 3 minor league options in Webster, Barnes and De la Rosa. If it falls in line with what most people see, you'll see one guy get injured, one guy make an impact in the bigs and one guy flame out spectacularly

[User Name]

Maybe we could meet in the middle: SFF could take off the rose-colored glasses and Jacksonian could stop being an unrelenting *******.

 

Right now, the rotation, with its "depth" should be good for about middle of the road in the AL. Not top five, but not as bad as last year.

 

Now kiss and make up girls.

[jacksonianmarch]

Maybe we could meet in the middle: SFF could take off the rose-colored glasses and Jacksonian could stop being an unrelenting *******.

 

Right now, the rotation, with its "depth" should be good for about middle of the road in the AL. Not top five, but not as bad as last year.

 

Now kiss and make up girls.

 

I think the sox end up as #10 in the AL with a starters ERA around 4.65. Toronto was #10 last yr, but their ERA will lower dramatically. Baltimore will come back to earth a bit and drop behind the sox. The Angels will drop beind the sox and the Royals will stay just barely in front of the sox.

[rjortiz]

That's like saying the Tigers have the best bench because of Cabrera and Fielder.

 

Oh. Wow. Funny. Thought I said depth, not rotation. That was just a dumb response.

 

You guys are idiots. I don't care about how good our 6th-10th options are. If they get regular playing time, it's going to be like 2012 again.

[User Name]

I think they'll be just a wee bit better and end up right down the middle at number seven or eight. Remember that the Astros will move to the AL West and are guaranteed to have one of the worst ERA's in the league. I think the Sox will have a better ERA than: Baltimore, Minessota, LAA, Houston, Cleveland, and the Royals, with Toronto and CWS being longshots.

[rjortiz]

I think the sox end up as #10 in the AL with a starters ERA around 4.65. Toronto was #10 last yr, but their ERA will lower dramatically. Baltimore will come back to earth a bit and drop behind the sox. The Angels will drop beind the sox and the Royals will stay just barely in front of the sox.

 

You're forgetting that if Lester and Buchholz miss time, Steven Wright and Hernandez will come in and post 3.00 ERA's.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I see, since counting on Franklin Morales as a starter has gone well at all times, especially in big spots, oh wait. And btw, you should have lumped his starts in with the detritus you'll be ridding from last yr's crap fest, but you didnt.. And Rubby de la Rosa is the second coming is he? The guy with 2 big league pitches, profiles more as a closer, has minimal big league experience and who he himself is also coming off TJS. You're touting depth that isnt really there because you cannot tout the 1-5 that are slated to take the bump come April. Dude, this is a pretty weak argument in total.

 

Come midseason, you should be able to see what the true colors of your real depth is, especially with your 3 minor league options in Webster, Barnes and De la Rosa. If it falls in line with what most people see, you'll see one guy get injured, one guy make an impact in the bigs and one guy flame out spectacularly

 

I didn't lump him in because he was one of the better pitchers we had last year and he's not going to be replaced. Why the hell would I lump him in?? That's a dumb statement.

 

Yes. A 98-100 mph change and an 80 change according to past pitching coaches equals a closer. All he has to do is spin a slider (which, by the way, his slider is rated as a better than average pitch by fangraphs) and he's a solid starter. He's got 65 innings of big league experience and posted a solid era and FIP.

 

Literally the only starter in the Sox rotation that we "can't count on" is Lackey. Again, look at the xFIP from the Sox SP last year. 4.28 xFIP, 9th in the AL. And the rotation has certainly improved both from a depth and underperformance standpoint. It's not homerism. It's statistics.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You're forgetting that if Lester and Buchholz miss time, Steven Wright and Hernandez will come in and post 3.00 ERA's.

 

Yeah. That's what we said. You're reading comprehension or maturity is at an all time low for this board.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think the sox end up as #10 in the AL with a starters ERA around 4.65. Toronto was #10 last yr, but their ERA will lower dramatically. Baltimore will come back to earth a bit and drop behind the sox. The Angels will drop beind the sox and the Royals will stay just barely in front of the sox.

 

The problem with this is that you're making the insinuation that 2012 was a normal year for our SP staff, when we had guys throwing to career worst ERA's.

 

There is a reason it's called a career of work, and why players trend toward their career norms.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Maybe we could meet in the middle: SFF could take off the rose-colored glasses and Jacksonian could stop being an unrelenting *******.

 

Right now, the rotation, with its "depth" should be good for about middle of the road in the AL. Not top five, but not as bad as last year.

 

Now kiss and make up girls.

 

Hoe am I wearing rose colored glasses?? I've been saying this entire time that they are the 7th or 8th in SP. The only time I even mentioned top 5 was when I said everything had to break just exactly right.

 

So you essentially agree with me and say that thy are middle of the road, yet I'm wearing rose colored glasses??

[mvp 78]

I wish I had your SP optimism SFF. If they have a good ST, I'll feel a little bit better about this rotation. Right now it just doesn't seem to be an improvement over the past 6 years.

[User Name]

Hoe am I wearing rose colored glasses?? I've been saying this entire time that they are the 7th or 8th in SP. The only time I even mentioned top 5 was when I said everything had to break just exactly right.

 

So you essentially agree with me and say that thy are middle of the road, yet I'm wearing rose colored glasses??

 

You are about the depth unfortunately. If they get a couple injuries in the rotation, it's very unlikely that things will go as swimmingly as you think.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You are about the depth unfortunately. If they get a couple injuries in the rotation, it's very unlikely that things will go as swimmingly as you think.

 

I'm not saying they are going to be just fine if they lose a Lester or a Buchholz. But if they lose a Dempster, Lackey, or Doubront and replace them with a Morales, Aceves, or De La Rosa, its almost a wash.

[rjortiz]

I'm not saying they are going to be just fine if they lose a Lester or a Buchholz. But if they lose a Dempster, Lackey, or Doubront and replace them with a Morales, Aceves, or De La Rosa, its almost a wash.

 

That says more about Dempster, Lackey, and Doubrount, although I think you are right on De La Rosa. He's probably better than Lackey right now.

[User Name]

I'm not saying they are going to be just fine if they lose a Lester or a Buchholz. But if they lose a Dempster, Lackey, or Doubront and replace them with a Morales, Aceves, or De La Rosa, its almost a wash.

 

It really isn't. You've got a bunch of unproven guys and guys who have not been able to excel at being SP before and you're talking like they're sure things. They really aren't. In fact, they're more than likely to be downgrades if any of the bottom three succumb to injury for long periods of time. The Aaron Smalls of the world are hard to find, but the Aaron Cooks aren't.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I wish I had your SP optimism SFF. If they have a good ST, I'll feel a little bit better about this rotation. Right now it just doesn't seem to be an improvement over the past 6 years.

 

 

I just think, for Lester and Buch, too much emphasis is being put on last year, and not enough is being put on the years before that. I also think Farrell knows more about pitching in his big toe than McClure or Niemman will ever know. Not to mention his history with Lester, Buch, and Doubront.

 

I understand he's not the pitching coach, but I also understand that it's his job to get this team to win games, and if that means giving Lester and Buch consistent insight, I have no doubt he will do that.

[mvp 78]

If Morales was a wash with Dempster, why the f*** would they need to sign Dempster?

[mvp 78]

I just think, for Lester and Buch, too much emphasis is being put on last year, and not enough is being put on the years before that. I also think Farrell knows more about pitching in his big toe than McClure or Niemman will ever know. Not to mention his history with Lester, Buch, and Doubront.

 

I understand he's not the pitching coach, but I also understand that it's his job to get this team to win games, and if that means giving Lester and Buch consistent insight, I have no doubt he will do that.

 

Lester and Buchholz should be better. I'm doubtful that Dempster will work out. I think Lackey will still be garbage. I'm worried that the increase in innings for Doubront will harm him this year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

It really isn't. You've got a bunch of unproven guys and guys who have not been able to excel at being SP before and you're talking like they're sure things. They really aren't. In fact, they're more than likely to be downgrades if any of the bottom three succumb to injury for long periods of time. The Aaron Smalls of the world are hard to find, but the Aaron Cooks aren't.

 

I just think they are all right around league average pitchers. I mean, Morales looked very strong in his starts last year outside of the Yankees starts. But even with those starts, he still posted a 4.14 era in 9 starts. If we get that out of either Lackey or Dempster, I'd be happy. I think they will both be 4.2-4.4 era guys. De La Rosa has a 3.96 era in the MLB over 61 innings (3.88 era as a SP over 10 starts). Again, I'm not just pulling numbers from a hat and hoping. I'm looking at past results.

[iortiz]

Unfortunately I see the 2011 and 2012 seasons coming with our current rotation.

 

I like your optimism SFF, but we are f***ed up if we go like this.

 

I want to eat my words, though.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If Morales was a wash with Dempster, why the f*** would they need to sign Dempster?

 

Because Morales threw 76 innings last year which was a career high. Before that his highest was 46. Morales would be good for around 115-120 innings. He serves better as the 6 man than the 5 man this year.

[User Name]

Over small sample sizes, or from a different league with lighter hitting and a bigger stadium. Again, i'm just trying to keep it in perspective here. I think Rubby's going to be very good, but not yet. As for Morales, i think he could be good in the rotation for short bursts, but problematic over long periods of time.@SFF

[SoxFanForsyth]

Over small sample sizes, or from a different league with lighter hitting and a bigger stadium. Again, i'm just trying to keep it in perspective here. I think Rubby's going to be very good, but not yet. As for Morales, i think he could be good in the rotation for short bursts, but problematic over long periods of time.

 

I agree. If we lose someone for the entire year, were in trouble. But if Morales makes 15-18 spot starts, we are in good shape.

 

And yes, DLR did have success in a bigger park, but he also was only 22. And he has had success at every level he's reached, including the bigs. Other than just blind pessimism, there's no reason to expect that he would be ineffective in the AL East. His FIP and xFIP as a SP (4.07, 3.64 respectively) both indicate that his peripherals translate to success, regardless of location. .310 BABIP as a SP. it's not like he was getting lucky.

 

I just don't see any reason that you would can say with any statistical evidence that he would not have success if given the chance.

[mvp 78]

Unfortunately I see the 2011 and 2012 seasons coming with our current rotation.

 

I like your optimism SFF, but we are f***ed up if we go like this.

 

I want to eat my words, though.

 

If they are one game out of the WC at the end of the year (like in 2011), I'd consider it a win.

 

If they win 90 games after last year's abortion, no one here should have a reason to complain.