2013 Red Sox predictions.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Well Chris Hernandez posted a 3.59 ERA over 8 starts in AAA last year, and a 3.26 era over 25 starts between AA and AAA. As your 10th SP (behind Morales, De La Rosa, Aceves, and Webster), I'm sorry, but you're not going to get Cliff Lee. He is certainly capable of coming up and giving innings in the event that each one of your SP and 4 of your depth options get hurt. A bit over zealous on the criticism aren't we?

 

And Wright is a recently turned knuckleballer who posted a 2.54 ERA between AA and AAA last year, with a 3.15 ERA on 4 Pawtucket starts. To say he's not an option for the Sox in the 11th slot in their depth is, again, ridiculous. Who do you think the best team is in the MLB? And who is their 10th and 11th option? This is nitpicking at its finest, and not even good nitpicking as both of these players have had success in the upper levels of the minor leagues, which could translate to back of the rotation starters.

[mvp 78]

To me, it is just silly to include Hernandez and Wright in your depth analysis as neither of them are prospects. Should the 10th option be Cliff Lee? That's your s***** argument? Jeez...

 

I just wanted you to make a case for those two guys. Didn't need you to be so butthurt over it.

 

This year's depth is no better than last year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

To me, it is just silly to include Hernandez and Wright in your depth analysis as neither of them are prospects. Should the 10th option be Cliff Lee? That's your s***** argument? Jeez...

 

I just wanted you to make a case for those two guys. Didn't need you to be so butthurt over it.

 

This year's depth is no better than last year.

 

It's just very nitpicky and all you need to do is look up their stats to see that they are prospects.

 

And if you don't think that Morales, Aceves, De La Rosa, And Webster are better options for depth than Aaron Cook and Daisuke Matauzaka, then we can just stop our discussions now. Morales should be going into the season ready to start, not relieve, so that he doesn't run into innings limits like he did this past season. And with the depth in the bullpen, we can spare Aceves and Morales as starters in AAA.

 

I don't know what merits Hernandez and Wright not being prospects, considering Hernandez is 24 and in AAA after 2 years in the minors and a career 3.23 era in the minors, and Wright is a recently transitioned knuckleballer who really started using it in late 2010, so the fact that he is 27 is meaningless as he made a transition, and he's had very good success with it.

[dupree]

With the current bullpen, Morales and Aceves should both be stretched out as starters with one starting in the minors and the other on the ML roster slotted in as the long relief man when one of the starters gets into trouble.

 

Webster, Barnes, De La Rosa, Hernedez, and Wright are all better options than DiceK or Cook bottom line. Cook is with Philli now i believe on a minors deal and DiceK is still on the market but i dont think he is worth spending any $ on. Havent heard much rumors or anything really about DiceK. If the sox could get him on a cheap minors deal then maybe i could wrap my mind around that. Maybe he could change from a starter and become a reliever like John Smoltz. But our bullpen is stacked so i just dont see anyway he will be back in a boston uniform.

[User Name]

I don't understand the thought process that leads people to believe either Morales or Aceves would accept an assignment to AAA to start the season.

[Palodios]

I don't understand the thought process that leads people to believe either Morales or Aceves would accept an assignment to AAA to start the season.

 

I was under the impression that pitchers are often o-k with going to the minors... when it means converting to a starter. Aceves has stated time and time again that he wants to start. Not sure about Morales, but I seriously bet it wouldn't be an ideal career choice for him to continue be a mop-up man.

 

If you set them aside, and ask, with all seriousness, whether they would consider the assignment under the guarantee that they would be the 6th starter in the rotation once injuries arise... maybe it works?

[User Name]

Doubtful. The only way i would see that working is if Lackey has a setback.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Doubtful. The only way i would see that working is if Lackey has a setback.

 

Well, I think the Sox could make Aceves the swing man in the bullpen and assign Morales to AAA. I'm not sure he can just 'not accept' that role. I don't think either od them guaranteed to be on the 25 man roster, especially since they are both just going into their 2nd year of arbitration.

[mvp 78]

And Cook had a 2.4 ERA in AAA last year. Minor league stats don't directly translate to MLB.

 

If I had one start I needed to fill and the options were DiceK, Wright, or Hernandez, I'd go with DiceK.

 

The depth options last year included Morales and Aceves, so it's not like they contribute in any way shape or form to better depth this year.

[User Name]

Well, I think the Sox could make Aceves the swing man in the bullpen and assign Morales to AAA. I'm not sure he can just 'not accept' that role. I don't think either od them guaranteed to be on the 25 man roster, especially since they are both just going into their 2nd year of arbitration.

 

But they could pout like whiny bitches, demand a trade and poison the clubhouse. We've seen what road that leads to...

[mvp 78]

And Wright is basically Charlie Zink. Now that was a memorable SP performance!

[Palodios]

And Wright is basically Charlie Zink. Now that was a memorable SP performance!

 

Steven Wright is a mystery right now. He converted to the knuckleball only recently, but he's been very effective once he got the hang of it. Charlie Zink was far more inconsistent than what Steven Wright has shown so far, and Wright has a 91 mph fastball.

 

He could turn into a complete bust for sure. But as a 10th starter/depth option, I really don't see the harm in seeing if he can repeat his performance from 2012.

[mvp 78]

From the Zink gamethread:

 

"Zink seems like a major league pitcher. I dunno if he'll ever be an ace but someone could give him a major league job and he'd probably do alright.

 

Obie mentioned that Zink is throwing the knuck higher in the zone than Wake -- that might be an issue but I guess it's just that he wants to make sure he's getting strikes called."

[Palodios]

But they could pout like whiny bitches, demand a trade and poison the clubhouse. We've seen what road that leads to...

 

I'm starting to think it might be in this team's best interest to use both pitchers in swing roles. Last year, Atchison had 12 appearances with 2 or more innings.

Mortensen pitched 12 appearances with 2+, and they were big innings.

Morales had 5 non-starting appearances with 2 or more innings.

Melancon had 5 in mopup.

 

There are plenty of opportunities.

[Palodios]

From the Zink gamethread:

 

"Zink seems like a major league pitcher. I dunno if he'll ever be an ace but someone could give him a major league job and he'd probably do alright.

 

Obie mentioned that Zink is throwing the knuck higher in the zone than Wake -- that might be an issue but I guess it's just that he wants to make sure he's getting strikes called."

 

No way to tell if Wright is Zink or Dickey until he gets his shot. And knowing this rotation, he will. But hell, if he turns out to be as good as Wakefield, I think I'd be okay with that.

[User Name]

I'm starting to think it might be in this team's best interest to use both pitchers in swing roles. Last year, Atchison had 12 appearances with 2 or more innings.

Mortensen pitched 12 appearances with 2+, and they were big innings.

Morales had 5 non-starting appearances with 2 or more innings.

Melancon had 5 in mopup.

 

There are plenty of opportunities.

 

That's exactly what they should do IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

And Wright is basically Charlie Zink. Now that was a memorable SP performance!

 

That was on the short list for nuttiest games in Red Sox history.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's exactly what they should do IMO.

 

And who gets knocked out of the bullpen? What happens when Bard is back to normal? You going to keep Taz in AAA?

 

There's no room for 2 'mop up' or multi inning relievers in this bullpen.

[User Name]

Not "When", "If". And they can cross that bridge when they get there.

 

Also, saying a team with as many rotation problems as this one doesn't have room for two multi-inning relievers in its bullpen doesn't make absolutely any sense. If anything, it should be the other way around.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And Cook had a 2.4 ERA in AAA last year. Minor league stats don't directly translate to MLB.

 

If I had one start I needed to fill and the options were DiceK, Wright, or Hernandez, I'd go with DiceK.

 

The depth options last year included Morales and Aceves, so it's not like they contribute in any way shape or form to better depth this year.

 

Aceves was the closer last year, so he wasn't an option to start.

 

Morales did make spot starts, but only after Aaron Hill and DiceK were both used. And when Morales dd start, he threw to a 4.14 ERA, which was significantly better than league average in the AL (4.37 ERA). The problem was that he prepped to be a reliever all offseason, and so he couldn't carry a huge load of innings. Prior to 2012, Morales had capped at 46.1 IP as his most innings in any major league season. Last year, he bumped that up to 76.1 IP (65% bump). That's a huge bump in innings. That said, he could hit the 100-105 IP mark this year and be fine because 1. he increased his workload last year and 2. he's coming into the season prepping to be a starter.

 

The problem with your argument is that you're arguing Cook's 2.4 ERA in AAA vs Wright/Hernandez's ERA's in the minor leagues. First off, Aaron Cook had a history of bad success at the major league level. To assume that any pitcher who posts a 2.4 ERA in AAA is going to suck at the MLB level just because Cook sucked is absolutely ridiculous. Are Wright and Hernandez capable of giving you 6 league average innings in spot starts? Absolutely they are. Neither you nor I have seen any indication that they would not have relative success in those spot starting roles. And that's all you can ask for from your #10 and #11 men.

[jacksonianmarch]

I find it completely hilarious that your "analysis" of you're rotation has it's a top 3-5 rotation in the AL. Lol. You brought in a career NLer at an advanced age, who'll give you IP, but whose production isn't expected to be much better than the departed Beckett. And you're returning the worst SP in Red Sox history coming off TJS. Barring finding a patch of 4 leaf clovers, your rotation is set for a debacle in 2013.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I find it completely hilarious that your "analysis" of you're rotation has it's a top 3-5 rotation in the AL. Lol. You brought in a career NLer at an advanced age, who'll give you IP, but whose production isn't expected to be much better than the departed Beckett. And you're returning the worst SP in Red Sox history coming off TJS. Barring finding a patch of 4 leaf clovers, your rotation is set for a debacle in 2013.

 

Dude. What are you talking about? I said they were 7th or 8th in the AL alone. That's a middle of the pack rotation. I said if everything broke right, cited examples, then they would be a top 5. But if everything goes as expected, they are a middle of the pack rotation. Please, read my posts before you try to jump on me for something. It makes you look silly.

 

The Rays, Yanks, Tigers, Jays, and A's all have better rotations. Then the ChiSox, Red Sox, Angels, and Rangers are all grouped in the average category. Then the Mariners, Orioles, Astros, Royals, Guardians, Mariners, and Twins are all bad.

 

So, I put the Red Sox right in the middle in the middle of the "middle" group. Maybe a bit more analysis on your part would make your posts bearable.

[jacksonianmarch]

You probably didnt look at the stats in the league from last yr when making your post above. Maybe a little more analysis would make you seem less like a homer. To be clear, the sox ushered out DiceK and Beckett from their rotation and influxed Dempster and Lackey. Probably a wash, but maybe a slight improvement. That being said, here is a ranking with ERA's of the AL starting rotations from 2012

 

1. TB- 3.34

2. Detroit- 3.76

3. Oakland- 3.80

4. Seattle- 3.93

5. LAA- 4.04

6. NYY- 4.05

7. CWS- 4.15

8. TEX- 4.30

9. BAL- 4.42

10. TOR- 4.82

11. KC- 5.01

12. BOS- 5.19

13. CLE 5.25

14. MIN 5.40

 

To get to #7, they'd have to shave off over a run from their ERA. Can you honestly say they have done that with their acquisitions this yr?

[Dojji]

You probably didnt look at the stats in the league from last yr when making your post above. Maybe a little more analysis would make you seem less like a homer. To be clear, the sox ushered out DiceK and Beckett from their rotation and influxed Dempster and Lackey. Probably a wash, but maybe a slight improvement. That being said, here is a ranking with ERA's of the AL starting rotations from 2012

 

1. TB- 3.34

2. Detroit- 3.76

3. Oakland- 3.80

4. Seattle- 3.93

5. LAA- 4.04

6. NYY- 4.05

7. CWS- 4.15

8. TEX- 4.30

9. BAL- 4.42

10. TOR- 4.82

11. KC- 5.01

12. BOS- 5.19

13. CLE 5.25

14. MIN 5.40

 

To get to #7, they'd have to shave off over a run from their ERA. Can you honestly say they have done that with their acquisitions this yr?

 

stated on the assumption that the pitching staff they had last year wasn't at least a run below their own talent level.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You probably didnt look at the stats in the league from last yr when making your post above. Maybe a little more analysis would make you seem less like a homer. To be clear, the sox ushered out DiceK and Beckett from their rotation and influxed Dempster and Lackey. Probably a wash, but maybe a slight improvement. That being said, here is a ranking with ERA's of the AL starting rotations from 2012

 

1. TB- 3.34

2. Detroit- 3.76

3. Oakland- 3.80

4. Seattle- 3.93

5. LAA- 4.04

6. NYY- 4.05

7. CWS- 4.15

8. TEX- 4.30

9. BAL- 4.42

10. TOR- 4.82

11. KC- 5.01

12. BOS- 5.19

13. CLE 5.25

14. MIN 5.40

 

To get to #7, they'd have to shave off over a run from their ERA. Can you honestly say they have done that with their acquisitions this yr?

 

To be clear, here are some of the numbers from last year:

 

Lester: 33 GS, 4.82 ERA

Beckett: 21 GS, 5.23 ERA

Cook: 18 GS, 5.65 ERA

Matsuzaka: 11 GS, 8.28 ERA

Zach Stewart: 2 GS, 22.24 ERA

Bard: 10 GS, 5.30 ERA

 

So yes. I think we will improve over those 95 games started pretty drastically.

 

Considering Dempster's FIP in his AL Starts was 4.07 and his xFIP was 3.85, I'd say it's a pretty safe bet to say his 30-33 GS will give around 1 run better in ERA than Beckett.

 

I'd say Lester isn't going to throw to a career worst ERA again, either. Considering his xFIP was a full run better than his ERA, again, I'd say it's a safe bet to say he's going to be better than he was.

 

Aaron Cook (5.65 ERA) will be replaced by starts from Morales (4.10 ERA as a SP last year). I'd say that should give a boost.

 

To assume that the Sox SP staff will again be at 5.20 is just lazy. Have a look at some of the guys xFIP's, which are much better indications of future performance than ERA.

 

You're just wrong here. It's not homerism when it's backed by stats.

[jacksonianmarch]

It is homerism when every single stat you throw out there is trying to justify the actual performance that went out on the field. It is also homerism when you expect a guy like John Lackey to be your savior in the rotation when he's a year removed from major arm surgery and prior to that was the worst pitcher in Red Sox history. It is also homerism to consider that Dempster will give you above average performance on top of his capability to eat innings. I doubt the sox suck to the degree that they sucked last yr, that much I agree with. But expecting them to drop an entire run in ERA is a little much. I think their starters ERA ends up in the 4.6 range, which still has them in the back third of the division, especially since the AL starters just got a boost with Toronto gaining significant talent, the Yankees having Pettitte and Phelps up for a full yr and with the Royals gaining James Shields.

[SoxFanForsyth]

It is homerism when every single stat you throw out there is trying to justify the actual performance that went out on the field. It is also homerism when you expect a guy like John Lackey to be your savior in the rotation when he's a year removed from major arm surgery and prior to that was the worst pitcher in Red Sox history. It is also homerism to consider that Dempster will give you above average performance on top of his capability to eat innings. I doubt the sox suck to the degree that they sucked last yr, that much I agree with. But expecting them to drop an entire run in ERA is a little much. I think their starters ERA ends up in the 4.6 range, which still has them in the back third of the division, especially since the AL starters just got a boost with Toronto gaining significant talent, the Yankees having Pettitte and Phelps up for a full yr and with the Royals gaining James Shields.

 

Considering the Red Sox xFIP last year was 4.28, 9th in the AL, and they improved significantly by removing 30 starts by Stewart, Cook, and DiceK, yes, I believe their SP ERA will bump up by about a run.

 

It's not homerism when you look at a stat that is better at projecting future performance than ERA to, wait for it.....project future performance. Crazy, isn't it?

 

Not only that, but the main guys on the team (i.e. Lester, Buchholz) pitched to their career worst ERA's by over a full run in Lester's case.

 

I'm actually doing analysis. You're looking at last year's ERA, which is a poor predictor of future performance.

[Dojji]

And Wright is basically Charlie Zink. Now that was a memorable SP performance!

 

Zink deserved more than one start. His implosion was no worse than some of Wakefield's more notorious games but unlike Wake that's all we remember him for .

 

He's not one of my "faves" but until it all came unravelled in the 5th he had done fairly well. Always thought it a pity he never got another chance.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wait, so they improved by removing the fodder above and giving those starts to Lackey? Lol

[SoxFanForsyth]

Wait, so they improved by removing the fodder above and giving those starts to Lackey? Lol

 

Considering he was throwing with a torn UCL in his elbow during 2011, I think he'll certainly be able to outperform a 6.50 ERA.

 

Not to mention that if he struggles, they'll just DL him and let Morales start, or De La Rosa, or Aceves, who all can outperform that fodder.

 

Plain and simple, the 2012 Red Sox SP pitched well below their talent level and also had a bunch of talentless pitchers starting for them for 20% of the season. They'll be a middle of the pack team in terms of SP.

 

Not to mention they have some of the better SP depth in the AL. Certainly better than the Yankees SP depth.