2013 Red Sox predictions.

[SoxSport]

Here's a prediction:

 

During Spring Training, Rubby De La Rosa looks like an absolute monster and people fall in love with him.

 

And the dolts will still assign him to AAA.

[BSN07]

And the dolts will still assign him to AAA.

 

Considering he's coming off TJS, has no track record in the MLB, and as it stands the rotation is full of ML signed SP I don't see how it would be a "dolt" move. You may have been being sarcastic lol

 

There is no reason to rush this kid even if he has a great spring. He might come up to fill in for injury during the season, but other then that I think he spends the year at AAA.

[SoxSport]

Considering he's coming off TJS, has no track record in the MLB, and as it stands the rotation is full of ML signed SP I don't see how it would be a "dolt" move. You may have been being sarcastic lol

 

There is no reason to rush this kid even if he has a great spring. He might come up to fill in for injury during the season, but other then that I think he spends the year at AAA.

 

If the kid is a monster in ST, which is the premise, it would indeed be doltish to assign him to AAA, especially considering their current rotation.

[User Name]

Spring Training sample sizes have little to no predictive value. This discussion reminds of a couple years ago when a near-retired Ivan Rodriguez went nuts and hit 8 HR'sin ST, then proceeded to hit 7 bombs the entire season.

[BSN07]

If the kid is a monster in ST, which is the premise, it would indeed be doltish to assign him to AAA, especially considering their current rotation.

 

They don't have a spot for him. The absolute only chance he has is if someone goes down to injury and he has a great spring. But as soon as the pitcher is ready to go he will be back down to AAA. He is injury depth this season as he builds his innings up in AAA. He's probably one of the guys I'm biggest on and I do want to see him with the Sox. But he's a prospect coming off injury and there is no reason to break the plan they have for him. Just because his name isn't Strausburg doesn't mean his future shouldn't be accounted for.

[Dojji]

If the kid is a monster in ST, which is the premise, it would indeed be doltish to assign him to AAA, especially considering their current rotation.

 

In a vacuum, yes. However, I can definitely see an argument in this specific instance because the kid needs to rebuild his durability. It's harder to control the innings of a great pitcher in the majors because it costs you "real" games. In the minors the games are less important than player development and everyone knows it, so it's a better way to ease a pitcher back into starting duties.

 

Besides, a guy just coming off surgery? Coming to town with this team and this medical staff? I can see so many ways that goes wrong.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Looking at this season, I think the Sox are in a good position to make a run at a 90 win season and will almost certainly be in position to make a run at a WC berth in late September.

 

Having a look at the three major facets of the game, they appear to be in decent to good shape.

 

SP - In the AL, very middle of the road. If things break right (Lester and Buch return to form, Doubie takes a big step forward, Dempster throws to a high 3ERA, and Lackey repeats 2010), then this is certainly a top 5 rotation in the AL. But if things go like they probably will (Lester and Buch mid 3 ERA, Doubront and Dempster low to mid 4s, Lackey 4.5-4.8), then this team has maybe the 7th or 8th best SP in the AL.

 

Bullpen - lights out. Best in the AL, and its really not close. And this isn't even assuming that Bard comes back and regains form. Hanrahan, Bailey, Taz, Uehara, Breslow, Miller, Morales, Aceves, Bard, Alex Wilson all make an insanely talented and deep bullpen. #1 bullpen in the AL, capable of posting a sub 3.00 combined ERA.

 

Offense - top 5. I see the Angels, Tigers and Jays as leading the pack. Then who? The Sox and Yanks are 4/5. The Rangers losing Nap and Hamilton lost a TON of offensive firepower. They still have Beltre and Cruz, but outside of them, there's a lot left to be desired. I think the Sox have a better lineup than the Yankees too, given Jeters surgery, losing Swisher and replacing him with an aging Ichiro, ARod going down, Youkilis is just awful anymore, especially outside of Fenway Park, no valid Catcher, and Granderson, while he hits a lot of HR, is a lot like Salty in that its pretty empty power.

 

So the Sox are around 7-8 for SP, 1 for BP, and 4 for Offense. Does that add up to a top 5 team? I certainly think so.

 

Which teams are better than the Sox this year? Jays, Angels, Tigers, and who else? After you get by those 3, it's just a big pile of teams that are all on the same level.

[a700hitter]

Looking at this season, I think the Sox are in a good position to make a run at a 90 win season and will almost certainly be in position to make a run at a WC berth in late September.

 

Having a look at the three major facets of the game, they appear to be in decent to good shape.

 

SP - In the AL, very middle of the road. If things break right (Lester and Buch return to form, Doubie takes a big step forward, Dempster throws to a high 3ERA, and Lackey repeats 2010), then this is certainly a top 5 rotation in the AL. But if things go like they probably will (Lester and Buch mid 3 ERA, Doubront and Dempster low to mid 4s, Lackey 4.5-4.8), then this team has maybe the 7th or 8th best SP in the AL.

 

Bullpen - lights out. Best in the AL, and its really not close. And this isn't even assuming that Bard comes back and regains form. Hanrahan, Bailey, Taz, Uehara, Breslow, Miller, Morales, Aceves, Bard, Alex Wilson all make an insanely talented and deep bullpen. #1 bullpen in the AL, capable of posting a sub 3.00 combined ERA.

 

Offense - top 5. I see the Angels, Tigers and Jays as leading the pack. Then who? The Sox and Yanks are 4/5. The Rangers losing Nap and Hamilton lost a TON of offensive firepower. They still have Beltre and Cruz, but outside of them, there's a lot left to be desired. I think the Sox have a better lineup than the Yankees too, given Jeters surgery, losing Swisher and replacing him with an aging Ichiro, ARod going down, Youkilis is just awful anymore, especially outside of Fenway Park, no valid Catcher, and Granderson, while he hits a lot of HR, is a lot like Salty in that its pretty empty power.

 

So the Sox are around 7-8 for SP, 1 for BP, and 4 for Offense. Does that add up to a top 5 team? I certainly think so.

 

Which teams are better than the Sox this year? Jays, Angels, Tigers, and who else? After you get by those 3, it's just a big pile of teams that are all on the same level.

SFF, you injected some Red Sox optimism into my day, but I am still pissed at you for hurting Kalish.

[User Name]

They still need to get a LH bat to platoon with Gomes and build some SP more SP depth.

[SoxFanForsyth]

They still need to get a LH bat to platoon with Gomes and build some SP more SP depth.

 

They have plenty of SP depth. They have Morales, De La Rosa, Aceves, Webster, Wright, and Hernandez, among others. I think they have more SP depth this year than I can remember in years past. Not to mention a lot of those names could probably outperform some of the guys who are already on the staff right now.

 

As for the LH bat, I agree. I'd like to see another LH bat. But to be fair, they could do worse than having Nava, a guy who posted a .383 OBP, .354. WOBA, and a 119 wRC+ vs RHP last year.

 

Don't get me wrong, I certainly think they need to go after a guy who can mash RHP and split time with Gomes. But at the same time, I'm just not sure what's out there. Would it be so bad to see how Bradley starts out, and see if he's ready? Or see how we'll Brentz hits vs RHP? I wish there were more sites that showed minor league splits because I don't know of any.

 

Either way, while I would like to see another LH outfielder, I certainly don't think it's going to be the separation between a PS team and a non PS team.

[SoxFanForsyth]

SFF, you injected some Red Sox optimism into my day, but I am still pissed at you for hurting Kalish.

 

Haha. That's my job, right? This board is filled with pessimism from the last 3 years, and rightfully so, but its not as bad as it seems. They should compete this year certainly.

[User Name]

They have plenty of SP depth. They have Morales, De La Rosa, Aceves, Webster, Wright, and Hernandez, among others. I think they have more SP depth this year than I can remember in years past. Not to mention a lot of those names could probably outperform some of the guys who are already on the staff right now.

 

Why rush those guys when you can get some guys with MLB experience for depth and ease those guys into the Majors instead of calling them for an emergency?

 

As for the LH bat, I agree. I'd like to see another LH bat. But to be fair, they could do worse than having Nava, a guy who posted a .383 OBP, .354. WOBA, and a 119 wRC+ vs RHP last year.

 

Don't get me wrong, I certainly think they need to go after a guy who can mash RHP and split time with Gomes. But at the same time, I'm just not sure what's out there. Would it be so bad to see how Bradley starts out, and see if he's ready? Or see how we'll Brentz hits vs RHP? I wish there were more sites that showed minor league splits because I don't know of any.

 

Either way, while I would like to see another LH outfielder, I certainly don't think it's going to be the separation between a PS team and a non PS team.

 

Nava's fine for a 5th OF, especially if they get him some reps at 1B, but as you mentioned they certainly need someone with a bit more thump against RHP.

[Station 13]

I predict Bailey and Harahan will buy everybody kittens and TV sets insurance.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Why rush those guys when you can get some guys with MLB experience for depth and ease those guys into the Majors instead of calling them for an emergency?

 

 

 

Nava's fine for a 5th OF, especially if they get him some reps at 1B, but as you mentioned they certainly need someone with a bit more thump against RHP.

 

I just don't think you're rushing them up. I mean, Morales started 9 games last year, De La Rosa started 10 games in 2011, Aceves certainly wouldn't be rushed to make some spot starts, and that gets you through 8 starters right there. The hope would be that by the time all 8 of those starters had been used and you needed a 9th, it would be well deep enough into the season that your 9th arm (Webster, Wright, or Hernandez) would have 20 or so starts under their belt and you wouldn't be rushing them.

 

That's my logic behind it at least.

[User Name]

I'm talking about the MiLB guys exclusively. Morales and Aceves are good spot starters, but flip-flopping relievers should be avoided if you have already amassed depth, which is what i advocate for them to do.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm talking about the MiLB guys exclusively. Morales and Aceves are good spot starters, but flip-flopping relievers should be avoided if you have already amassed depth, which is what i advocate for them to do.

 

I think I know where we are getting crossed up.

 

Season starts tomorrow, what's your bullpen look like? Mine has Miller rather than Morales in it, Bard rather than Aceves, and both Aceves and Morales starting in AAA waiting on Lackey to go down or Dempster to be ineffective.

[User Name]

I think Morales and Aceves both start the season with the big club. Even more so Aceves, who Farrell likes.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think Morales and Aceves both start the season with the big club. Even more so Aceves, who Farrell likes.

 

So I'm assuming you're going with an 8 man pen of Hanrahan, Bailey, Bard, Aceves, Taz, Uehara, Breslow, Miller?

[User Name]

Not sure Bard starts the season with the big club.

[mvp 78]

We'll see if Lackey is even ready to go on April 1st.

 

I think Tazawa starts in AAA since he has options.

 

If Aceves starts slow or acts out, he's gone.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not sure Bard starts the season with the big club.

 

I wasn't either until I read Farrell's comments. Now I'm pretty certain that he will.

[SoxFanForsyth]

We'll see if Lackey is even ready to go on April 1st.

 

I think Tazawa starts in AAA since he has options.

 

If Aceves starts slow or acts out, he's gone.

 

Lackey has had 1.5 years to recover, he's been throwing for a while now. In terms of recovery from TJS, he's could start now.

 

And Taz to the minors just because he has options is not going to happen. Not the way he pitched last year, no chance. He posted a 1.43 era and a 9.2 k:bb ratio. He's one of the best arms in the bullpen.

[User Name]

Really now? He hasn't thrown to live hitters at all. There's a point where optimism becomes naivety. Bard is a complicated case, and there's the possibility he's screwed up. We should wait for him to actually pitch before we declare him ready for the Majors again.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Really now? He hasn't thrown to live hitters at all. There's a point where optimism becomes naivety. Bard is a complicated case, and there's the possibility he's screwed up. We should wait for him to actually pitch before we declare him ready for the Majors again.

 

No, but finding his arm slot is a huge, huge step forward. That's what allows him to regain both command and velocity. The fact that he's found that alone makes him a more than 50/50 shot at coming back and being the Daniel Bard we know.

[User Name]

But there's still a significant chance he won't be ready by opening day. Don't get me wrong, i'm cautiously optimistic about Bard, but we need to wait for results.

[SoxFanForsyth]

But there's still a significant chance he won't be ready by opening day. Don't get me wrong, i'm cautiously optimistic about Bard, but we need to wait for results.

 

I agree with you, and I think we're on the same page. I am just a bit more convinced about it than you, which is fine, I'm probably a bit overly optimistic.

[Behindenemylines]

Lackey has had 1.5 years to recover, he's been throwing for a while now. In terms of recovery from TJS, he's could start now.

 

And Taz to the minors just because he has options is not going to happen. Not the way he pitched last year, no chance. He posted a 1.43 era and a 9.2 k:bb ratio. He's one of the best arms in the bullpen.

 

I agree, if Tazawa merits being in Boston when the Sox come north then he should be. Can still see Sox moving pieces in the bullpen to fill other needs or bring back more youth.

[User Name]

I agree, if Tazawa merits being in Boston when the Sox come north then he should be. Can still see Sox moving pieces in the bullpen to fill other needs or bring back more youth.

 

Packaged with Salty, for the love of all that is holy.

[SoxSport]

No, but finding his arm slot is a huge, huge step forward. That's what allows him to regain both command and velocity. The fact that he's found that alone makes him a more than 50/50 shot at coming back and being the Daniel Bard we know.

 

Ha. So that's why they traded for Farrell. They needed him to tell Bard he was throwing out of his arm slot.

[mvp 78]

SFF, how are Wright and Hernandez considered depth options? Neither is a MLB caliber pitcher?