2013 Red Sox predictions.

[Behindenemylines]

I think most of us would take a season that has us competing for a wild card spot in September. A lot has to go right for the Sox to make the playoffs. I just hope we are closer to this then what we had to watch last season.

[a700hitter]

IMO, getting another starter would leapfrog us over a bunch of teams.

[redsoxfan3]

IMO, getting another starter would leapfrog us over a bunch of teams.

 

I agree 100%. We still have 9 million guaranteed below the LT threshold at this point. We can add another pitcher.

 

My 2013 prediction as of right now, is that Dustin Pedroia is going to emerge as the clear cut MVP of this team and he is going to have a healthy season.

[Spitball]

I agree 100%. We still have 9 million guaranteed below the LT threshold at this point. We can add another pitcher.

 

My 2013 prediction as of right now, is that Dustin Pedroia is going to emerge as the clear cut MVP of this team and he is going to have a healthy season.

 

I would like to see the Sox get a left-handed platoon complement for Napoli. Garrett Jones would have been nice.

[User Name]

But does Napoli's .845 career OPS against righties really warrant a platoon partner? And he's moving to Fenway to boot.

[jung]

Now that they have him I think the Sox will need to see Napoli in the lineup as much as possible. I don't think a platoon partner makes sense for him either.

[mvp 78]

So they signed Napoli only to face lefties? Don't think so. If they get a backup 1b, it's not going to be a platoon situation. It'd be more like a guy who would fill in once a week at most.

 

"Hey, we were going to sign this guy for $13M AAV to only face LHP!" Sounds kinda silly to me.

 

Since Napoli won't be catching, I'm not sure they have a huge need for another 1b.

[Spitball]

Maybe Napoli doesn't need a platoon partner as much as he needs a left handed caddy. I know he is no longer expected to catch, but he has played more than 114 games only once. And more importantly, he has a bad hip.

[mvp 78]

Guess they won't be dealing Salty then? He is the big LH bopper certain posters have been clamoring for.

[Dojji]

Agreed. If there's any platoon with Napoli at all, it's going to be with Salty.

 

That said, given that Napoli isn't a natural first baseman, I could see then bringing in someone like Casey Kotchman as a LIDR.

[User Name]

Dude, what's up with that boner you have for Salty? He sucks the big one.

[Dojji]

Hardly. He's useful, just limited. I get the impression that he's not going anywhere, so it falls to the team to get as much use out of him as they can.

[User Name]

"Useful" is a very generous word.

[Dojji]

25 HR's.

 

He's far from ideal, but he's far from useless.

 

One more example of how Red Sox fans are spoiled and can't handle players that are talented but flawed. The world is divided between "all star" and "sucks." We saw the same issue with Reddick.

[mvp 78]

Hardly. He's useful, just limited. I get the impression that he's not going anywhere, so it falls to the team to get as much use out of him as they can.

 

You better hope Lavs starts hitting in ST. If not, I think he'll be in AAA to begin the year. Salty is a backup C/1b at best, but the problem is this roster doesn't have any better options.

 

In reality, they should have moved him when he was smoking the ball early last year. The Nats needed a C, but no move was made with the Sox.

 

It's not that Salty is a great option, it's just that's what this roster is stuck with right now. Even if they traded Salty today, it's a 90% chance that Gomez is the backup. People hoping for Garrett Jones are living in a fantasy world. It's not going to happen.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox fans are spoiled and can't handle players that are talented but flawed. We saw the same issue with Reddick.

 

Really? Sox fans didn't like Reddick? People were easier on Reddick than they are on Salty...

[Palodios]

25 HR's.

 

He's far from ideal, but he's far from useless.

 

One more example of how Red Sox fans are spoiled and can't handle players that are talented but flawed. The world is divided between "all star" and "sucks." We saw the same issue with Reddick.

 

Reddick has plenty of talent to work with. Salty is a one tool player. He can't throw, he can't catch, he can't call games, he sucks on the base paths, he can't hit for average, he can't get on base. Hell, he doesn't even hit that many doubles, just home runs. If you took away that one statistic from him, and looked at what he is... I doubt he would be good enough to play at AAA.

[User Name]

Calling a spade a spade is not being spoiled. Salty sucks. And i'd bet dollars to doughnuts Reddick doesn't replicate his production next year, or ever again, honestly.

[Palodios]

Calling a spade a spade is not being spoiled. Salty sucks. And i'd bet dollars to doughnuts Reddick doesn't replicate his production next year, or ever again, honestly.

 

Reddick had a great first half, and a bad second half, so his numbers looked a lot like they did in the minors. .240 average, .300 OBP, lots of power, lots of strikeouts, excellent defense. I don't see that being unusual for him the years ahead.

[User Name]

Reddick had a great first half, and a bad second half, so his numbers looked a lot like they did in the minors. .240 average, .300 OBP, lots of power, lots of strikeouts, excellent defense. I don't see that being unusual for him the years ahead.

 

The power will regress. Mark my words.

[Palodios]

The power will regress. Mark my words.

 

Well, he is playing in Oakland after all. 32 home runs again may be a stretch-- not many players hit that many nowadays-- but 20-25 lines up well with his minor league numbers.

[a700hitter]

They could live with Salty if he wasn't so horrible at handling the pitching staff. I never wanted to believe that catchers make that much of a difference to pitchers, but the numbers on Salty are consistently and extremely bad.

[User Name]

I remember reading somewhere that Salty gives the worst target some scouts have ever seen. They can't explain why because Javy Lopez had a similar build but didn't suck so bad even though he had less mobility. Maddux refused to pitch to him though.

[Behindenemylines]

Well, he is playing in Oakland after all. 32 home runs again may be a stretch-- not many players hit that many nowadays-- but 20-25 lines up well with his minor league numbers.

 

Reddick will hit 20-25 HR again. He hit 32 playing half of his games in Oakland. Plus he is a solid defensive outfielder. He kind of made the Bailey trade a bit one sided. Salty is still a trading chip for the Sox. Because of injuries that come with the position a team may have a need for him and may be willing to give up more during the season.

[wyo-sox]

They could live with Salty if he wasn't so horrible at handling the pitching staff. I never wanted to believe that catchers make that much of a difference to pitchers, but the numbers on Salty are consistently and extremely bad.

 

Are you talking the pitchers era's?

[a700hitter]

Are you talking the pitchers era's?

Yes.

[wyo-sox]

How do you explain Buchs 3.5 and . Lesters 3.7 to Salty in all of 2011? How do you explain some pitchers with better era's in 2012 with Salty as opposed to Shopach?

[a700hitter]

How do you explain Buchs 3.5 and . Lesters 3.7 to Salty in all of 2011? How do you explain some pitchers with better era's in 2012 with Salty as opposed to Shopach?

Overall, the pitching numbers with Salty behind the plate were far worse than the numbers with the other catchers in 2011 and 2012.

 

Edit: BTW, even your cherry- picked numbers are higher than they were with other catchers in 2011. Buchholz's 2011 numbers don't prove much either way since he pitched only 81 innings that season.

[wyo-sox]

It's not cherry picking, that was their era's. for 2011. Beckett and Dice K had much better era's through 2012 with Salty then with Shop. Doubront had a similar era with both catchers, slightly better with Shop. Bard had slightly better era with Salty. And while it's a small sample size as a starter Morales pitched much better to Salty. And overall the bullpen pitched well to Salty. I'm trying to look at all the starters individually so not sure how that is cherry picking?

 

Cherry picking is looking at 2011 when Tek almost exclusively caught Beckett on a really good Beckett year, while Salty caught everyone else including injured Lackey and a over the hill knuckle baller..... then acting surprised the team had a better winning percentage with Tek.

 

Or looking at 2012 when the whole team was riddled with injuries, we traded away major talent, Ortiz didn't play, we basically fielded a triple a team, drama with the manager was at a climax, and everyone could see the team gave up....... Salty caught through all that while Shop was not even on the team any more......then people feel justified to point out we had a better winning percentage with Shop than with Salty... that is cherry picking.

 

This will be my last post on Salty as I have no idea why I feel obligated to defend the guy. I hate his bat, I hate his throws to second and think at best he is average. But to blame this team's win loss record on him while ignoring other factors is silly. Comparing the team's win loss record from one catcher to another without pointing out who they were catching, number of games caught and overall team performance while they catching just feels lazy to me.

 

And the biggest thing to me is the era. Facts are that some pitchers pitched worse to Salty, some about the same and some better. The biggest factor in Saltys poor catcher era in 2012 was clearly Buch and Lester... so I don't see how it's cherry picking to see what those pitchers did the previous year with Salty..... and when one sees they both threw respectable era's in 2011 to Salty... I do not think it's unreasonable to think the terrible 2012 Lester and Buch had are mostly the fault of Lester and Buch. I think it is a fair question to ask people that blame Salty for Lesters 2012 why he threw well to him in 2011.

 

I enjoy your posts and hope you take this as my opinions and observations and how The logic plays out in my mind.... not trying to be negative or argumentative. I just feel people use Salty as a scapegoat for the pitchers instead of admitting Lester and Buch flat out laid down and crapped the bed.

 

 

Edit: So my using Salty / Buchs 80 innings in 2011 does not prove anything........ but in the same sentence you state other 2011 catchers had better era's for Lester, when Lavs caught 1 inning and Ten caught 40 compared to Salty 140 innings. Then you accuse me of cherry picking?

[a700hitter]

It's not cherry picking, that was their era's. for 2011. Beckett and Dice K had better era's through 2012 with Salty then with Shop. Doubront had a similar era with both catchers, and while it's a small sample size as a starter Morales pitched much better to Salty. And overall the bullpen pitched well to Salty. I'm trying to look at all the starters individually so not sure how that is cherry picking?

 

Cherry picking is looking at 2011 when Tek almost exclusively caught Beckett on a really good Beckett year, while Salty caught everyone else including injured Lackey and a over the hill knuckle baller..... then acting surprised the team had a better winning percentage with Tek.

 

Or looking at 2012 when the whole team was riddled with injuries, we traded away major talent, Ortiz didn't play, we basically fielded a triple a team, drama with the manager was at a climax, and everyone could see the team gave up....... Salty caught through all that while Shop was not even on the team any more......then people feel justified to point out we had a better winning percentage with Shop than with Salty... that is cherry picking.

 

This will be my last post on Salty as I have no idea why I feel obligated to defend the guy. I hate his bat, I hate his throws to second and think at best he is average. But to blame this team's win loss record on him while ignoring other factors is silly. Comparing the team's win loss record from one catcher to another without pointing out who they were catching, number of games caught and overall team performance while they catching just feels lazy to me.

 

And the biggest thing to me is the era. Facts are that some pitchers pitched worse to Salty, some about the same and some better. The biggest factor in Saltys poor catcher era in 2012 was clearly Buch and Lester... so I don't see how it's cherry picking to see what those pitchers did the previous year with Salty..... and when one sees they both threw respectable era's in 2011 to Salty... I do not think it's unreasonable to think the terrible 2012 Lester and Buch had are mostly the fault of Lester and Buch. I think it is a fair question to ask people that blame Salty for Lesters 2012 why he threw well to him in 2011.

 

I enjoy your posts and hope you take this as my opinions and observations and how The logic plays out in my mind.... not trying to be negative or argumentative. I just feel people use Salty as a scapegoat for the pitchers instead of admitting Lester and Buch flat out laid down and crapped the bed.

Hey I get what you are saying. As I said in an earlier post, I never believed that a catcher had a big impact on a pitcher's performance. However, the numbers that others have posted in this regard (Salty vs. other catchers) have been eye-opening. I am still skeptical that the bad pitching in 2012 is Salty's fault. Being that our staff is basically the same as last year except with the subtraction of Beckett and addition of Dempster, I am sort of hoping that it was Salty's fault, because we might trade him. If it wasn't Salty's fault, whether he stays or gets traded, I don't think we can expect a big improvement from our starters, because it is the same crew of pitchers.