2013 Red Sox predictions.

[MANNYHOF24]

Now that the lineup, rotation and bullpen appear to be set, it's time to get out the crystal ball and make some predictions about how the season will play out.

 

Season outlook:

 

I think the new and improved Red Sox bullpen is going to go along ways in covering up some of the weakness at the end of our rotation. I am feeling optimistic about the team right now, and believe question marks will swing in our favor this year.

 

1. Red Sox will win 94 games and win the AL east in a close race with the Blue Jays.

 

2. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz will return to form and both be in the top 10 in CY young voting.

 

3. John Lackey is going to pitch 200 innings, win 13-15 games and have an ERA slightly under 4. (3.95)

 

4. Ryan Dempster struggles early, pitches well as the season moves along, wins 12 games , 200 innings 4.30 ERA

 

5. Doubront takes steps forward goes 15-10 with a 4.10 ERA.

 

6. Ellsbury has huge MVP year, bats .320 with 23 HRS, 115 runs scored and 88 driven in.

 

7. Pedroia bats over .300 hits 20 homeruns and drives in 85 runs.

 

8. Ortiz takes a step back, still hits 25 homeruns batting .280 with 95 RBI's.

 

9. Napoli plays 145 games hits .275 with 35 homeruns (20 over the green monster)

 

10. Stephen Drew hits .290 with 14 homers and plays a solid SS

 

11. Middlebrooks cracks 30 homers and drives in 100 runs, (his first of many 30 and 100 seasons)

 

12. Victorino is somewhere between the allstar and terrible player he was last year,

 

13. Salty will be traded for pitching help at some point this season.

 

14. John Farrell returns Boston baseball to the way it should be, the circus like atmosphere filled with bafoon managers and overpaid egotistical *******s is completely gone, and we can finally enjoy our baseball team again after 3 years of misery.

 

15. Red Sox will have best bullpen in baseball, which turns out to be a huge reason why the Red Sox rebound this season.

[MANNYHOF24]

Oops this thread already exists, my bad.

[BSN07]

no that's a "bold" predictions. Stuff that's a little out there. We needed one for just the normal predictions.

 

I'll predict for the guys I expect to get them most AB's,

 

Ellsbury- .305/.370/.530 25 HR, 80 RBI 35 steals

Pedroia- .295/.370/.460 15 HR, 85 RBI, 40 2B 15 SB

Ortiz- .280/.390/.600 30 HR, 110 RBI

Napoli- .260/.350/.550 33 HR 100 RBI

Middlebrooks- .275/ .340/.530 25 HR 90 RBI

Victorino- .265/.340/.440 15 HR, 40 2B 65 RBI

Drew- .255/.330/.400 12 HR 30 2B

 

 

Pitching

 

Lester- 19-9 220 IP 3.30 ERA

Buchholz- 18-10 200 IP 3.60 ERA

Doubront- 17-10 190 IP 3.90 ERA

Dempster- 15-15 215 IP 4.80 ERA

Lackey 15-9 160 IP 4.50 ERA

 

BP

 

Hanrahan- 43 saves 3.50 ERA

Bailey- 15 saves 3.00 ERA

Uehara- 35+ app 2.00 ERA

Bard- (surprise of the bp) 45+ app sub 2.00 ERA

Miller- 4.50 ERA

Morales- 8-5(swing man) 4.30 ERA

Tazawa- 4.00 ERA

 

That's all I can throw together for now.

[Northern Star]

I think it's bold to say the Sox will finish above the Blue Jays.

[jung]

The first post in this thread is full of bold predictions most of them to do with the pitching. Lackey... 200 innings....don't think so.

 

I don't think a team with four lamp bound genies, 25 rabbits feet, a genuine four leaf clover with guys runnin' around with horse shoes strung around their necks could have that much good turn out for it in one season.

[User Name]

My prediction: Everyone will fall short of OP's predictions, but they'll still defy expectations and finish with 90-ish wins.

[SoxSport]

Tough to predict this team. They underperformed so badly last year, had some key injuries, dumped their big impact hitter, AdGon, and one of their starters, Beckett. On top of that the team just seemed to flat out quit after the salary dump. Ortiz certainly had next years' contract in mind with his sore foot...he wasn't going to risk that on a wasted season. Sensible thinking, in my view.

 

The media is not impressed with how they spent their money pre-season. I'm not either, though they managed to get out of one of those 3 year deals with Napoli. That leaves only Victorino, plus a couple of 2 year ones to Gomes and Dempster.

 

It remains for the core holdovers to turn things around this year, especially the pitching. You figure they are going to be much better. But whether they can get much above the .500 mark is debatable. They are in too tough a division, and they have basically the same management that has failed in recent years. We'll see if Farrell can make much of a difference.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Jon Lester has the biggest comeback on the team

[jung]

Actually I think there is one chance of Lackey pitching 200 innings but not at an era below 4:00. IMO if Lackey pitches 200 it will be much like his last full season with the Sox when he just kept going out there game after game...staying out there because the Sox had no other real options for starters and had exhausted their bullpen AGAIN. So if he pitches 200 IMO it will be because he simply takes the ball and pitches until somebody comes out to get him regardless of the consequences. Maybe that is one of the reasons why he is beloved by his teammates. That sort of willingness to sacrifice goes a long way. His teammates in all likelihood were waiting for him to throw the ball one time and have his arm fall off. Surely he had to be pithing in some amount of pain and his teammates likely knew that.

 

I would be a bit surprised if the Sox used him up that way his first year back from surgery if it comes to it. But I won't be at all surprised if he takes the ball every time just like he did his last year before surgery.

[User Name]

Would you be upset if he gave 200 IP of 4.40 ERA?

[jung]

Would you be upset if he gave 200 IP of 4.40 ERA?

 

Not sure if you are asking me UN but I would think 200 innings at 4:40 in the AL East would be a very respectable first year back from TJ. We should know how easy it is to get to 4.50 since so many of our starters found it difficult to stay below that number. It does not take much to be at 4.50. So I would think 4.40 over 200 would be a good first year back for him.

[User Name]

Yes, i was asking you, because you mentioned Lackey's last full season. His last full season was 2010, and he put up 200+ IP and a 4.40 ERA. If you meant the atrocity that was his 2011 you should have worded it differently.

[jung]

I guess...He got 28 starts in 2011. Hard for me to call 28 starts for a starting pitcher less than a full season of work. That is only two starts short of the standard 30. He was probably pitching in pain for a good many of those 28 starts I would think but still took the ball and likely had to be dragged off the mound regardless of how badly things were going. That is kinda' what I was driving at.

 

If Lackey repeated his 2010 that would likely be a pretty good sign for the Sox I would think. If he has something more like his 2011 only with more innings and lets say something like an ERA maybe just over 5 but not as hideous as what it was in 2011 then I think that would be indicative of a bad overall year for the Sox with Lackey being called on to pitch even though his ERA was suffering for it. I think he has already proven he will take the ball in any event.

 

That is one of the things that maybe distinguishes him. That willingness to take the ball regardless of the circumstances and still have to be dragged off the mound. We probably don't like it very much but I can definitely see how it would endear him to his teammates.

[Porcupine penis]

91 wins, get wild card spot

[SoxSport]

I think it will take a Cinderella year for them to make the playoffs. Especially after Toronto broke the bank with all those sexy players.

 

The Orioles had one of those Cinderella years last year, and a lot of people think they will come down to earth a bit. The Yankees will do what they have to do to stay in contention. It's a must for them in Mediatown. TB gets by on pitching and smallball.

 

The Red Sox are in a tough division. Things will have to break their way, and other teams will have to decline, for them to make the playoffs. Anybody check the Vegas odds?

[BSN07]

The Red Sox are in a tough division. But it's a wide open one. No team stands out from the pack. And well I'm not buying the Blue Jays.

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox are in a tough division. But it's a wide open one. No team stands out from the pack. And well I'm not buying the Blue Jays.

 

The West Division is much stronger. We'd get our clocks cleaned in that Division. It would be really ugly.

[Palodios]

The West Division is much stronger. We'd get our clocks cleaned in that Division. It would be really ugly.

 

Outside of the Angels, what team is significantly better than the Rays? Yankees? Blue Jays?

 

The Rangers lost Hamilton, Napoli and Young. The Athletics lost Gomes, Mccarthy, and Drew, and were really a longshot last year anyway. The Mariners made a few solid additions, but they're still a mediocre team. And the Astros?

[BSN07]

I think it's wide open across baseball. There aren't any juggernaut rosters so to speak. Most teams(outside of Houston and Miami) have reason for optimism. I can't remember a time where the league was all so bunched together.

[User Name]

I'd dare say with that pitching, San Francisco has a juggernaut roster.

[BSN07]

I'd dare say with that pitching, San Francisco has a juggernaut roster.

 

Pitching staff? Yes. Offensively? No. But that's who they are and it works for them. Posey is a legitimate threat and Panda can be. Pence is good. But they rest of their offense doesn't really stand out enough for me to call them a "juggernaut". But they are def at the top of the league right now. Just not head and shoulders above the rest imo.

[User Name]

Pitching staff? Yes. Offensively? No. But that's who they are and it works for them. Posey is a legitimate threat and Panda can be. Pence is good. But they rest of their offense doesn't really stand out enough for me to call them a "juggernaut". But they are def at the top of the league right now. Just not head and shoulders above the rest imo.

 

They've got elite pitching and defense, and a full season of Pence and Scutaro should propel them to league-average offensively. They're probably the best team in the league if Panda can stay healthy. I'm not convinced by Cincinnati because their rotation very much outperformed expectations last year.

[a700hitter]

Outside of the Angels, what team is significantly better than the Rays? Yankees? Blue Jays?

 

The Rangers lost Hamilton, Napoli and Young. The Athletics lost Gomes, Mccarthy, and Drew, and were really a longshot last year anyway. The Mariners made a few solid additions, but they're still a mediocre team. And the Astros?

I don't think we can compete with the Rangers, and I still like the A's pitching better than ours.

[a700hitter]

I think it's wide open across baseball. There aren't any juggernaut rosters so to speak. Most teams(outside of Houston and Miami) have reason for optimism. I can't remember a time where the league was all so bunched together.

Nats are pretty darn strong. Angels are stacked with talent on both sides of the ball. Our roster is bottom half.

[User Name]

Name 14 teams with a better roster than the Red Sox.

[a700hitter]

Name 14 teams with a better roster than the Red Sox.

 

IMO, in no particular order:

 

Yankees

Rays

Toronto

Angels

Rangers

A's

Tigers

Nats

Phillies

Braves

Giants

Dodgers

Cards

Reds

Orioles

 

That's 15

[User Name]

Debatable teams:

 

Phillies: Weak back end of the rotation, offense and BP, even with Paps.

 

Reds: Very lucky with their rotation last year. Weak defense.

 

Orioles: That luck in one run games is an aberration.

 

Dodgers: Lots of offensive talent with lots of health question marks and so-so pitching.

 

Rays: Did away with Shields and offense still a question mark.

 

The rest i agree with.

[mvp 78]

Not sold on the A's or Braves either. I think the Reds and Rays are better than those two.

[a700hitter]

Debatable teams:

 

Phillies: Weak back end of the rotation, offense and BP, even with Paps.

 

Reds: Very lucky with their rotation last year. Weak defense.

 

Orioles: That luck in one run games is an aberration.

 

Dodgers: Lots of offensive talent with lots of health question marks and so-so pitching.

 

Rays: Did away with Shields and offense still a question mark.

 

The rest i agree with.

What is scary is that 15th or 16th would be a big improvement over last season when 23 teams had better records.

[User Name]

I really think they can be a top 10 team next year (even better if they get another reliable arm for the rotation) but that may not be enough to get them into the playoffs. The AL is stacked.