What do you think the Sox chances are in 2013

[Bellhorn04]

The bolded part is the most extreme level of rose colored hogwash I have ever seen. The sox were 60-67 when THE TRADE went down. They went 9-26 in their final 35 games. That is NOT a .500 team. You could make the case that if they stayed intact that they'd be a .500 team, but the team that finished the yr wearing Red Sox uniforms was not even close to a .500 team.

 

[jung]

Well I don't want to put words in the guys mouth but I think the case SFF was trying to make was that it was a 500 team before the trade.

 

I don't think it is fair to say that what was left after the trade was anything to write home about or anything that was intended to be a "team" of any sort, contending or otherwise.

 

The only remaining components of that 2012 team that you can look at with an eye to what might be for 2013 is the rotation and the pen. I don't think you can really look at the rest and draw anything meaningful from it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Say what you want about the Sox last year, but the reason they were 60-69 when the trade went down was because the majority of the core players were either hurt or playing well below their career norms.

 

Lester is much much better than he was last year. He posts a sub 3.5 era for 4 years straight, then has a bad year and all of a sudden he's a terrible, pitcher who has peaked.

 

Buchholz doesn't throw for 10 months, goes in and allows more than 1/3 of his total ER in his first 6 starts before he's back to being himself.

 

Ellsbury comes off an MVP season and goes down in the 7th game of the year and isn't right all year.

 

Pedroia is battling thumb issues the entire first half of the season.

 

Ortiz is on pace for a 35 HR season and he goes down in mid July with 23 HR.

 

Middlebrooks goes down in August with a season that, any other year, has him in ROY considerations.

 

Talent wise, yes, they were much much better than a 69 win team. And all of the guys listed are coming back.

 

Expecting them to perform to their career norms is completely reasonable. Last year was a complete aberration for nearly every one of the players mentioned above, compounded by a horrifying manager who had no clue what he was doing.

 

So no. It's not 'rose colored hogwash'. Try to perform just the smallest bit of analysis other than Murphy's Law for the Red Sox.

[Palodios]

Say what you want about the Sox last year, but the reason they were 60-69 when the trade went down was because the majority of the core players were either hurt or playing well below their career norms.

 

Lester is much much better than he was last year. He posts a sub 3.5 era for 4 years straight, then has a bad year and all of a sudden he's a terrible, pitcher who has peaked.

 

Buchholz doesn't throw for 10 months, goes in and allows more than 1/3 of his total ER in his first 6 starts before he's back to being himself.

 

Ellsbury comes off an MVP season and goes down in the 7th game of the year and isn't right all year.

 

Pedroia is battling thumb issues the entire first half of the season.

 

Ortiz is on pace for a 35 HR season and he goes down in mid July with 23 HR.

 

Middlebrooks goes down in August with a season that, any other year, has him in ROY considerations.

 

Talent wise, yes, they were much much better than a 69 win team. And all of the guys listed are coming back.

 

Expecting them to perform to their career norms is completely reasonable. Last year was a complete aberration for nearly every one of the players mentioned above, compounded by a horrifying manager who had no clue what he was doing.

 

So no. It's not 'rose colored hogwash'. Try to perform just the smallest bit of analysis other than Murphy's Law for the Red Sox.

 

Jacko, you really aren't factoring in exactly how little the Red Sox lost last year.

 

The Red Sox lose:

Adrian Gonzalez +2.5 WAR

Josh Beckett -.1 WAR

Carl Crawford .4 WAR

Nick Punto -.2 WAR

 

We're talking about 2.8 wins here. Victorino alone had a 2.4 WAR last year. Napoli had a 1.4 WAR on an off year. Gomes 2.1. Dempster 3.3. Ross 1.5. Uehara .9. Stephen Drew will contribute as well.

 

Ellsbury is on a contract year so he could add another 9 wins on his own.

 

Lackey, Bailey, Middlebrooks, Bard, Ortiz will be back from injuries. Plus, the Red Sox have much deeper depth in the minors and bench. There are a significant number of places where this team can improve going into 2013. They need one more pitcher before 90 wins is reasonable, but they're much better than 2012.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pal, I am disagreeing with the sentiment that the sox team that started this offseason was a .500 team. I think right now, the sox are around a .500 team

[SoxFanForsyth]

Pal, I am disagreeing with the sentiment that the sox team that started this offseason was a .500 team. I think right now, the sox are around a .500 team

 

I didn't say they started this offseason as a .500 team. I said last season, they underperformed and got hurt enough that, in terms of talent, they were closer to a .500 team than a 69 win team.

 

As of right now, especially with the bullpen being much stronger now, this team is an 85-88 win team.

[jacksonianmarch]

I didn't say they started this offseason as a .500 team. I said last season, they underperformed and got hurt enough that, in terms of talent, they were closer to a .500 team than a 69 win team.

 

As of right now, especially with the bullpen being much stronger now, this team is an 85-88 win team.

 

They're an 80 win team right now due to the strength of the division. Not sure how people can look at the division and say it's weak. The Yankees are not going away, and they won 95 games last yr. The O's havent changed at all and they won 93. The Rays did take a step back with the loss of Shields, but are pesky and are coming off a 90 win season. The Jays added significantly to their squad and are considered the favorites. How do you expect the sox to do in that division with the team they have in uniform so far? 72 of their games are inside that buzzsaw of a division.

[redsoxfan3]

People throwing out 85-90 wins really need to also look at the division and see where those wins will come from. You have 72 of your 162 against teams in your division. And with the division being so good, it will be hard to really say that the sox are likely to be over .500 at all.

 

The team that finished the yr was actually a .300 team, when you look at the post-trade production. So basing things off a team that won 69 games isnt really accurate since the group that finished the yr would have won 49 games should they have played an entire season Throw in a healthy Ortiz and Middlebrooks plus the cadre of what-ifs in Dempster, Victorino, Gomes, and maybe Napoli and you have to wonder how many wins those guys offer. Plus, you figure the Blue Jays markedly improved and with the O's coming off a playoff bid, the Yankees pitching being healthy and back in the running for best rotation in the AL and the Rays always being a fly in the ointment and you have to wonder how many they win. I've said all along that I have the sox around 75-80 wins this yr barring a miraculous acquisition or ridiculously lucky season

 

What does the .300 team at the end of last year have anything to do with this year? We are not fielding the same team. Gomes, Victorino, Napoli, Dempster, Drew, and Uehara are better than guys that we fielded at the end of last year like Gomez, Loney, Nava, Podsednik, etc. I could get into a debate about each position and say how we are going to be better off this upcoming season than we were at the end of last season, but I don't think that is necessary. Everyone in their right mind knows the team we are fielding is going to be better than the one that we fielded at the end of last year.

 

Is this a .500 team? There is no way in knowing as of right now. It is fair to say that this team could finish less than .500. There are a lot of question marks and the offseason moves are not finished. We have still been linked to getting other starting pitching and are still being linked to Cody Ross. It is hard to predict anything with this team. The team chemistry is going to be a lot better. We have signed some good clubhouse guys. I think there will be a lot less drama now that Bobby V is not managing like this team is a circus. I am not optimistic about this season. I am not pessimistic about this season. A LOT of things can happen. Every team in the AL East has question marks. I am not expecting this team to be over .500, but if it happens, I have seen crazier things.

[SoxFanForsyth]

They're an 80 win team right now due to the strength of the division. Not sure how people can look at the division and say it's weak. The Yankees are not going away, and they won 95 games last yr. The O's havent changed at all and they won 93. The Rays did take a step back with the loss of Shields, but are pesky and are coming off a 90 win season. The Jays added significantly to their squad and are considered the favorites. How do you expect the sox to do in that division with the team they have in uniform so far? 72 of their games are inside that buzzsaw of a division.

 

The Yankees have an injury plagued team. Jeter coming off an ankle injury. Ask Stephen Drew how that goes. ARod out until July. Replaced by Youk, who is barely league average. Pettitte hasn't started more than 21 games since 2009. Hughes has a career 4.4 era and has been average or below average in each of the past 3 seasons. You've got a RF who hasn't posted a .700 OPS since 2010. And Phelps threw what, 100 innings last year? What are you expecting from him. The Yankees are a very old, injury prone team who counts on the long ball too much.

 

The Orioles went 16-2 in extra inning games and went 29-9 in 1 run games. Complete and utter fluke season.

 

Saying the Rays, who lost 230 innings of 3.52 era baseball, are going to be in it because they're scrappy is lazy and inaccurate.

 

The Jays are very solid and are my pick right now. But that doesn't mean that the entire division is solid. Not by any means. This is by far and away the most open I've seen this division in a long time. A slew of 82-88 win teams. 90 could very well win the East.

[jung]

They probably have one play left to make at least without giving and getting salary ala' trade. They are already up to $165-168M committed against a $178m cap. But they don't have multiple moves left to make as they have already spent up close to the cap.

[redsoxfan3]

The Yankees have an injury plagued team. Jeter coming off an ankle injury. Ask Stephen Drew how that goes. ARod out until July. Replaced by Youk, who is barely league average. Pettitte hasn't started more than 21 games since 2009. Hughes has a career 4.4 era and has been average or below average in each of the past 3 seasons. You've got a RF who hasn't posted a .700 OPS since 2010. And Phelps threw what, 100 innings last year? What are you expecting from him. The Yankees are a very old, injury prone team who counts on the long ball too much.

 

The Orioles went 16-2 in extra inning games and went 29-9 in 1 run games. Complete and utter fluke season.

 

Saying the Rays, who lost 230 innings of 3.52 era baseball, are going to be in it because they're scrappy is lazy and inaccurate.

 

The Jays are very solid and are my pick right now. But that doesn't mean that the entire division is solid. Not by any means. This is by far and away the most open I've seen this division in a long time. A slew of 82-88 win teams. 90 could very well win the East.

 

I do agree with you in saying the division is open, but in my opinion, I do not necessarily think that means the division is weak.

 

The Jays just made themselves the favorite, in the eyes of most, to win the East with all of their offseason moves.

 

The Yankees have question marks, but they can still be a very competitive team. Age is not on their side, but they are still not a walk in the park. The Yankees are still the Yankees.

 

The Orioles have a lot of confidence after last season. I do agree that last year that they were fortunate to win 16 extra inning games. That is something that probably will not happen again. Either way, the Orioles are still going to be a tough team.

 

The Rays did lose Shields and Wade, but they have the pitching depth to make a trade for Myers like they did. They are going to have to count on big years from guys like Moore, Hellickson, and Cobb. They are not the best team offensively, but Myers will be a nice addition. The Rays always find a way to surprise people, so you cannot write them off by any means.

 

The Red Sox are coming off of a down year, so we all know that they will be playing with a chip on their shoulders this year. They will be determined to turn things around. The clubhouse and team chemistry will be better. There will be a lot less drama. We all know we need to have big years from Lester, Buchholz, and Dempster. There are a lot of question marks, but there is no doubt that the talent is there.

 

I don't think it is fair to say that the division is weak. In fact, I think with the Jays offseason moves, that this is the toughest division in baseball. The Yankees are always solid. The Rays always surprise people. The Orioles are coming off of a surprising year. The Jays are expecting big things. The Red Sox have made some nice moves. I think it is fair to say the the division is the toughest in baseball. I don't know if I would say the entire division is solid, but as of right now, we do not not know what to expect next year.

[jung]

I think you could make the case that the division is not as strong as it was relative to the other AL Divisions and that might be more important to the teams that don't win the division in the east. I don't think the team that finishes 3rd in the AL East this year takes the 2nd WC.

[Behindenemylines]

I guess we have to be prepared for the worst, and hope for the best. On paper the Sox are out of the playoffs, but it would be nice if they are playing meaningful games in September.

[mvp 78]

As SBF would say, "last DAMN place."

 

I'm fine with it as long as they are building for the future.

[Lucienbel]

SFF, you are one of my favorite posters and you are solid on player evaluations, but this ^ is an untenable statement. I am not saying this to pick nits or to argue, but we all need to feel the cold slap of reality of 2012. It was the year that opened our eyes to the fact that this is a bad organization on all levels of its baseball operations. Their marketing department is top shelf, and they have a great established fan base that stretches around the globe. The baseball operations needs an overhaul. Hopefully, we will see that they have made some progress in that regard in the next few years.

 

I really think they need to get some people in the organization who know and can evaluate pitching at all levels.

 

Someone that's able to sit down and get some solid pitching in the farm system and up and through the majors would be excellent. With all of these things you've said, they do seem to at least have a mentality geared sort of in place for this now. It's nice to see them not just pawning off the farm system for whatever they need this year. Seeing guys like Reddick go and play that way gets difficult to watch after a while. With that said, it seems like we develop solid hitting all the way through, which is a positive. At the same time, it seems that all the trading of prospects and the up and down "fill in this position while the other guy is hurt" has seemed to be incredibly hurtful to some prospects we've had.

 

I'm all for building for the farm system, and I'm all for waiting for it even when it comes to building a winning team. Other people have said it as well, big names aren't necessarily the problem, but they shouldn't be entirely relied on either. However, it seems that when big pieces are brought in to complement what is already a pretty good team, things go best. I'd prefer to see people come up from the farm, and then the Sox fill in with good players at positions they need to. My mind goes to the Washington Nationals....they were able to draft good, develop good, and then fill in with guys that made a difference from the outside.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees have an injury plagued team. Jeter coming off an ankle injury. Ask Stephen Drew how that goes.

 

Stephen Drew had a distal tib/fib fracture instead of a malleolar fracture. Humongous difference.

 

ARod out until July. Replaced by Youk, who is barely league average.

 

You was effectively right around the WAR of Chavez in a down yr. I agree he is a wildcard, but I think he is more an .800OPS guy than a .745OPS guy if handled right

 

Pettitte hasn't started more than 21 games since 2009.

That's not really a fair statement since he didnt start in 2011, didnt make his debut in the bigs until May last yr and broke his ankle on a freak play in August. I dont expect 30 starts from him, but I do expect a lot more than 12

 

Hughes has a career 4.4 era and has been average or below average in each of the past 3 seasons.

 

In 2009, 2010, and 2012, he was above average. And, btw, he outperformed every one of your pitchers in 2012, yet he is average and Buchholz is a stud. How convenient. Hughes also dealt with dead arm at the beginning of the season. Once his stuff came back he was a solid #2. You guys like to justify Buchholz using the same marker, "Well, he was coming off injury and stuff, so, like the first 6 weeks don't count, and stuff." Use the same with Hughes and you'll see he actually pitched just as well as your supposed rotation saviour while giving more inning. Hypocrisy quashed!

 

You've got a RF who hasn't posted a .700 OPS since 2010.

Yeah, the guy who has been stuck on a team that hasnt seen the postseason in a decade gets infused back into a playoff situation and all of a sudden starts hitting like the old days. And using OPS with Ichiro isnt the best method of evaluation anyway since in his illustrious career, he's only a .780OPS guy. His speed, defense and hitting ability combined will put him in the above average category yet again in 2013

 

And Phelps threw what, 100 innings last year? What are you expecting from him.

 

To battle Nova for the #5 spot. And since when has throwing 100IP of 2.0WAR production with a K per inning and a low walk rate a bad thing? He did nothing but dominate his first yr in the bigs and he's being knocked for the role he played. Oh, brother.

 

The Yankees are a very old, injury prone team who counts on the long ball too much.

They are old, they do have injuries, but we've had an older roster than the sox for a decade now, and who seems to have more injuries on a yearly basis. That's right, the sox! And the counting on the longball thing is relevant, but when you remove Swisher, Chavez and possibly Ibanez from the equation and throw in a grinder like Youk and speedsters like Gardner and Ichiro, you are going to see a little bit of a different brand of Yankees ball in 2013

 

The Orioles went 16-2 in extra inning games and went 29-9 in 1 run games. Complete and utter fluke season.

 

And they brought up Manny Machado who will be in his first full season. He will put up big numbers in Camden Yards and will likely be the next superstar. They should get a full yr of Jason Hammel as well. They're a tough team under Buck, so I dont expect them to go away completely. They'll be in the division into September, IMO.

 

Saying the Rays, who lost 230 innings of 3.52 era baseball, are going to be in it because they're scrappy is lazy and inaccurate.

 

I have agreed as much in saying the Rays lost some production in the rotation and the pen. But they should have a full yr of Longoria and will be starting the top offensive prospect in baseball. They also have a ready made replacement for Shields in Archer who struck out 36 in his first 29 innings in the bigs. I expect them to take a step back in the pitching department, but depending on how Archer produces and Moore improves on his rookie season, some of it may be absorbed

 

The Jays are very solid and are my pick right now. But that doesn't mean that the entire division is solid. Not by any means. This is by far and away the most open I've seen this division in a long time. A slew of 82-88 win teams. 90 could very well win the East.

 

The offseason winners rarely end up playing out nowadays, but I do agree that the Jays look pretty solid in all phases this yr

[Lucienbel]

The Orioles will be an interesting team this year. I think a large part of how they do is going to depend on what they can get out of their pitching.... They certainly hit some luck all over last year. With that said, I do agree that counting them out wouldn't be right. They have a solid offense and a lot of guys who play hard. At the very least, they're not going to be an easy team to beat. Not sure if I'm comfortable saying they'll be in it until September, but they're going to be a decent team again.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Jackso - does Hanrahan count as a significant move on our sig bet? What about Hanrahan and Jones? And if they trade for Porcello?

 

Just trying to figure out what's significant.

[SCM33]

They can make the playoffs...... absolutely they can.

 

The shitshow is gone (Beckett, Crawford and Gonzalez).

The sideshow is gone (Bobby Valentine).

 

The toilet has been flushed.

 

Remember, the 2000 and 2001 Redsox teams were also f***ing miserable. They had chaos in the clubhouse, it just wasn't reported the same way as it is now. They flushed it out, and in 2002 they were competitive, they won 93 games. It can happen again in 2012.

[onlybereaved]

They can make the playoffs...... absolutely they can.

 

The shitshow is gone (Beckett, Crawford and Gonzalez).

The sideshow is gone (Bobby Valentine).

 

The toilet has been flushed.

 

Remember, the 2000 and 2001 Redsox teams were also f***ing miserable. They had chaos in the clubhouse, it just wasn't reported the same way as it is now. They flushed it out, and in 2002 they were competitive, they won 93 games. It can happen again in 2012.

 

Right?

 

I love this way of thinking - for all we know the team could go down in history and pillage everyone with a less than impressive 'on paper' roster.

[Palodios]

Right?

 

I love this way of thinking - for all we know the team could go down in history and pillage everyone with a less than impressive 'on paper' roster.

 

It seems that other teams counts on their players returning to career best states, and we have a habit of looking for career norms. Its a shame that the Red Sox have failed to simply attain that-- hitting and pitching as well as they have for their entire career. But the Red Sox have some very good players who have done very well in the past.

 

Want to put it into perspective? The Red Sox have former all-stars at :

1B

2B

CF

RF

DH

SP1

SP2

SP3

SP4

RP1

RP2

 

Plus two young guys with all-star potential at SS, 3B and an outside shot at C. They've created a platoon that should be very effective in LF. A Japan Series MVP in Uehara who has the highest KK/BB ratio in MLB history with elite setup potential, and a pile of high ceiling guys behind him like Tazawa, Aceves, Bard etc. And a ton of depth behind almost every position.

 

The thing is... this team needs to perform to his capabilities. It hasn't in a while, but if this is the year, then they are far better than they're given credit for.

[Bellhorn04]

When it comes to my own somewhat pessimistic projection of 84-78, I think I am being influenced by two things as much as anyone else is: the 'bottom line' effect and the 'recency' effect. Both of those effects fix on the indisputable facts that we were 69-93 last year and that we haven't made any huge upgrades on paper.

 

Getting more specific about key players, I don't think there's any getting past our two best starters, Lester and Buchholz. Last year they had ERA's of 4.82 and 4.56 respectively. If you stick with the bottom line and the recency, you can't assume that they will be better than that in 2013. Sure, Lester pitched better than that the last 2 months, and Buchholz had a great stretch of games in mid-season. But no amount of parsing makes the 4.82 or the 4.56 go away.

 

I'll say this: if both Lester and Buch can at least give us a combined 390 innings and each knock at least a run off their ERA's, the Red Sox should make the playoffs.

[Dojji]

It seems that other teams counts on their players returning to career best states, and we have a habit of looking for career norms. Its a shame that the Red Sox have failed to simply attain that-- hitting and pitching as well as they have for their entire career. But the Red Sox have some very good players who have done very well in the past.

 

Want to put it into perspective? The Red Sox have former all-stars at :

1B

2B

CF

RF

DH

SP1

SP2

SP3

SP4

RP1

RP2

 

Plus two young guys with all-star potential at SS, 3B and an outside shot at C. They've created a platoon that should be very effective in LF. A Japan Series MVP in Uehara who has the highest KK/BB ratio in MLB history with elite setup potential, and a pile of high ceiling guys behind him like Tazawa, Aceves, Bard etc. And a ton of depth behind almost every position.

 

The thing is... this team needs to perform to his capabilities. It hasn't in a while, but if this is the year, then they are far better than they're given credit for.

 

I agree. This is a team that can get into the playoffs with a shot to go further. Players have to play up to their ability, commit to paying the price, and gain confidence in their teammates. If they can do that, I think they'll shock a lot of people.

[lospunchados]

 

In 2009, 2010, and 2012, he was above average. And, btw, he outperformed every one of your pitchers in 2012, yet he is average and Buchholz is a stud. How convenient. Hughes also dealt with dead arm at the beginning of the season. Once his stuff came back he was a solid #2. You guys like to justify Buchholz using the same marker, "Well, he was coming off injury and stuff, so, like the first 6 weeks don't count, and stuff." Use the same with Hughes and you'll see he actually pitched just as well as your supposed rotation saviour while giving more inning. Hypocrisy quashed!

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure what basis you are going on but Hughes was above league average for era in 2010 and 2012. hughes does have a lot of parallels with Bucholz though. Both have had trouble staying healthy and can look very dominant at times. Both aren't huge strikeout pitchers, and Hughes had his best year K's wise ( and era wise)in 2009when he was predominantly a reliever.

 

Hughes has been mostly average as a starter but showed much higher potential as a reliever. Bucholz, in different seasons has been great, above average, average and bad as a starter. His problem has always been himself, either by toomany walks or staying healthy.

[Designated Hater]

The Red Sox and the Yankees will be battling all year for position standing - last place. The other teams in the AL East are good, young, athletic, and ready to win. The Red Sox want to move forward (at least for the next couple years) with players that are place holders for undeveloped young minor league talent. We are crossing the bridge and it's going to be ugly. They may very well be better than last year and I absolutely see the entire division finishing over .500, but that is going to mean the Red Sox are nothing more than an 82 win team.

 

The Yankees are OLD. Old, old, old. They will compete with their pitching being what it is and Robinson Cano, being just about the only piece of YOUNG superstar talent.

 

Here is my AL East prediction for 2013:

1) Baltimore

2) Toronto

3) Tampa

4) New York

5) Boston

[jacksonianmarch]

Jackso - does Hanrahan count as a significant move on our sig bet? What about Hanrahan and Jones? And if they trade for Porcello?

 

Just trying to figure out what's significant.

 

The current move with the Pirates isnt significant enough to end our sig bet

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm not sure what basis you are going on but Hughes was above league average for era in 2010 and 2012. hughes does have a lot of parallels with Bucholz though. Both have had trouble staying healthy and can look very dominant at times. Both aren't huge strikeout pitchers, and Hughes had his best year K's wise ( and era wise)in 2009when he was predominantly a reliever.

 

Hughes has been mostly average as a starter but showed much higher potential as a reliever. Bucholz, in different seasons has been great, above average, average and bad as a starter. His problem has always been himself, either by toomany walks or staying healthy.

 

Hughes struck out close to 8 per 9IP. That's a strikeout pitcher. And he walked 2.1 batters per 9IP, so it isnt the walks that are causing his problems. Hughes' problem is the long ball. 35 HR's allowed last yr is what has caused his ERA to be in the average to slightly above average range. If he can limit the longball down to even the low 20s (which is still high) then his ERA will drop drastically.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hughes struck out close to 8 per 9IP. That's a strikeout pitcher. And he walked 2.1 batters per 9IP, so it isnt the walks that are causing his problems. Hughes' problem is the long ball. 35 HR's allowed last yr is what has caused his ERA to be in the average to slightly above average range. If he can limit the longball down to even the low 20s (which is still high) then his ERA will drop drastically.

 

If this was the problem, then his xFIP would not be higher than his ERA. xFIP normalizes HR/FB rates. Hughes problem is that he's a fly ball pitcher. His HR/FB was 12.4%, which is not nearly as bad as you make it seem. League average HR/FB in 2012 was 11.8% for SP.

 

The problem is that Hughes allowed 47.6% FB, compared to league average of 33.9%.

 

He's a fly ball pitcher and that does not bode well at all, especially in the AL East.

[SoxSport]

The Red Sox team after the Dodger deal last year wasn't really a team. And they didn't have a full team in the first half due to injuries to core players. When you add in all the managerial and coaching dysfunctions, right up to the front office, last years' performance doesn't tell anything about this year.

And that's without all the changes in personnel, coaching, manager, etc, which have occurred--for the better.

Most people think the Red Sox will be much better this year. How much better is hard to say. My guess is they finish in the middle of the pack. But they are due for a season of good luck--haven't had one for awhile. And luck is a big factor for any team in a season.

[jacksonianmarch]

If this was the problem, then his xFIP would not be higher than his ERA. xFIP normalizes HR/FB rates. Hughes problem is that he's a fly ball pitcher. His HR/FB was 12.4%, which is not nearly as bad as you make it seem. League average HR/FB in 2012 was 11.8% for SP.

 

The problem is that Hughes allowed 47.6% FB, compared to league average of 33.9%.

 

He's a fly ball pitcher and that does not bode well at all, especially in the AL East.

 

And in Yankee Stadium. He's an FA at season's end and a guy I expect to leave NY for Cali as he is a Cali kid. If he signs on in a place like SD, he will end up being a Cy Young candidate.