What do you think the Sox chances are in 2013

[Soxman]

I think they can do well. How far do you see them going in 2013?

:thumbsup:

[onlybereaved]

Here's what I think...

 

The team is going to enjoy an overall better atmosphere this season. There will be less pollution and negativity within the clubhouse and on the bench, etc. The guys are going to develop a nice chemistry, and deliberately play with grit or heart, etc.

 

This is a huge step in the right direction, and alone should allow for the team to do better than it has in the last 2 seasons. That being said, I believe that it is safe to say that although they could "do well", the odds are they will finish 3rd or 4th at best in the AL-E.

 

I personally appreciate your optimism...but I can see you getting thrashed in this thread because the overwhelming consensus on talksox forum is negative and bitter (so far) with respect to the question you're asking.

 

Wait for it...

[Bellhorn04]

Assuming we sign Napoli or LaRoche, my prediction at this point would be 84-78 and out of the playoffs. Which doesn't mean I'm unhappy about the general offseason strategy. But my optimism is directed more toward 2014. Go prospects.

[BSN07]

Too early to make any kind of creditable guess. If you think they will contend, people will say your wearing your rose colored glasses. If you say they won't contend you'll be considered a doomsday type. This discussion is going to lead to a lot of bickering and urine spraying lol

[Station 13]

85 wins if we get a real closer.

[jacksonianmarch]

You need to build from within, but sign some more stopgap options for your rotation. Right now, the rotation is...

 

1. Buchholz

2. Dempster

3. Lester

4. Lackey

5. Doubront

 

Buchholz is a guy that some of you guys are pinning as an "ace" yet he had a much worse season than Phil Hughes, a guy who also started off terribly and most people on here thinks is garbage. He's a guy who is streaky, injury prone, yet if he could ever put a strong full season together has the potential to give innings and effectiveness. But, he's still a questionmark

 

Dempster is a guy who gives innings and has been effective the last few seasons. He transitioned poorly initially to Texas, but came on strong at the end. He's a veteran who can avoid bats even with a diminishing arsenal. I think he is going to be your "ace" by season's end, but more a guy who goes 200IP and can have an ERA in the 4.00 range

 

Lester is a complete enigma. He gives you durability, starting 31+ games for 5 straight yrs. But his effectiveness has waned significantly from his banner yrs from 08-10. His K rate has dropped in 11 and 12. His walk rate started rising in 2010, plateaued in 2011 and came down a bunch in 2012. But his BAA, and more importantly, hit HR allowed have risen sharply. That shows a guy whose stuff is dwindling a little, even though the velocities are only down a little. But it shows a guy who is wild inside the zone, something that will get you killed as a lefty in Fenway. And that is where he has sucked the hardest. On the road, Lester was an ace. 98.1IP 87H 35ER 10HR 27BB 80K 3.20ERA 1.15WHIP 7.3K/9IP 3.00K/BB, At home, he was f***ing terrible. 107IP 129H 75ER 15HR 41BB 86K 6.31ERA 1.59WHIP 7.2K/9IP 2.1K/BB. Lefties who start seeing phantoms in Fenway typically dont correct on their own. If this bugaboo continues, he'll be wearing another uniform come mid season

 

John Lackey is a true wild card. For a 5 yr stretch in Anaheim, he was your prototypical #2 pitcher. 200IP, solid performance, bulldog mentality. He came to Boston and he got hit hard in his debut season, but gave 215IP and was still a warrior. His 2011 season is being blamed on injury, but it was one of the worst statistical seasons a pitcher wearing a sox uniform has ever put up. And he has now missed 2012 after surgery. He just turned 34 and prior to the elbow wearing out, his stuff had started to dwindle. Some guys get some velo back after TJS, but those are typically younger pitchers. The older guys coming back from this typically lose a little velocity. So, the question is, which will it be. Will Lackey come back as the guy throwing 93mph bowling balls and geting groundball after groundball again. Or will he come back as a guy throwing 87mph sinkers up in the zone that end up on Landsdowne street? Who knows

 

Felix Doubront is a guy that some on this site seem quick to want to shed because they didnt like his up and down season from a yr ago. I would think that to be a mistake. He wasnt perfect by any means, but he also went through a stretch where he wasnt getting any support. He also succumbed like most rookies to in the dog days of summer. He was your best pitcher through July, then got a little injured, sucked ass in August and September and left a sour tase in your mouths. But this kid has some serious promise, even though he is also a questionmark. He needs to keep the ball in the yard more, he needs to drop the walk rate and continue to miss bats. But in the end, I think he ends up a solid starter for you.

 

Overall, each spot has a questionmark. I am pretty sure that Buchholz, Lester, and Dempster will give you some production enough to justify their spots in the rotation. But having guys in the top 3 with questions and then having the bottom two be humongous questionmarks leaves you having to have a lot break right just to contend.

[jacksonianmarch]

You need to build from within, but sign some more stopgap options for your rotation. Right now, the rotation is...

 

1. Buchholz

2. Dempster

3. Lester

4. Lackey

5. Doubront

 

Buchholz is a guy that some of you guys are pinning as an "ace" yet he had a much worse season than Phil Hughes, a guy who also started off terribly and most people on here thinks is garbage. He's a guy who is streaky, injury prone, yet if he could ever put a strong full season together has the potential to give innings and effectiveness. But, he's still a questionmark

 

Dempster is a guy who gives innings and has been effective the last few seasons. He transitioned poorly initially to Texas, but came on strong at the end. He's a veteran who can avoid bats even with a diminishing arsenal. I think he is going to be your "ace" by season's end, but more a guy who goes 200IP and can have an ERA in the 4.00 range

 

Lester is a complete enigma. He gives you durability, starting 31+ games for 5 straight yrs. But his effectiveness has waned significantly from his banner yrs from 08-10. His K rate has dropped in 11 and 12. His walk rate started rising in 2010, plateaued in 2011 and came down a bunch in 2012. But his BAA, and more importantly, hit HR allowed have risen sharply. That shows a guy whose stuff is dwindling a little, even though the velocities are only down a little. But it shows a guy who is wild inside the zone, something that will get you killed as a lefty in Fenway. And that is where he has sucked the hardest. On the road, Lester was an ace. 98.1IP 87H 35ER 10HR 27BB 80K 3.20ERA 1.15WHIP 7.3K/9IP 3.00K/BB, At home, he was f***ing terrible. 107IP 129H 75ER 15HR 41BB 86K 6.31ERA 1.59WHIP 7.2K/9IP 2.1K/BB. Lefties who start seeing phantoms in Fenway typically dont correct on their own. If this bugaboo continues, he'll be wearing another uniform come mid season

 

John Lackey is a true wild card. For a 5 yr stretch in Anaheim, he was your prototypical #2 pitcher. 200IP, solid performance, bulldog mentality. He came to Boston and he got hit hard in his debut season, but gave 215IP and was still a warrior. His 2011 season is being blamed on injury, but it was one of the worst statistical seasons a pitcher wearing a sox uniform has ever put up. And he has now missed 2012 after surgery. He just turned 34 and prior to the elbow wearing out, his stuff had started to dwindle. Some guys get some velo back after TJS, but those are typically younger pitchers. The older guys coming back from this typically lose a little velocity. So, the question is, which will it be. Will Lackey come back as the guy throwing 93mph bowling balls and geting groundball after groundball again. Or will he come back as a guy throwing 87mph sinkers up in the zone that end up on Landsdowne street? Who knows

 

Felix Doubront is a guy that some on this site seem quick to want to shed because they didnt like his up and down season from a yr ago. I would think that to be a mistake. He wasnt perfect by any means, but he also went through a stretch where he wasnt getting any support. He also succumbed like most rookies to in the dog days of summer. He was your best pitcher through July, then got a little injured, sucked ass in August and September and left a sour tase in your mouths. But this kid has some serious promise, even though he is also a questionmark. He needs to keep the ball in the yard more, he needs to drop the walk rate and continue to miss bats. But in the end, I think he ends up a solid starter for you.

 

Overall, each spot has a questionmark. I am pretty sure that Buchholz, Lester, and Dempster will give you some production enough to justify their spots in the rotation. But having guys in the top 3 with questions and then having the bottom two be humongous questionmarks leaves you having to have a lot break right just to contend.

[jung]

If the rotation was not chock full of guys that are all question marks and the league now with a few truly impressive rosters you could be more optimistic about their 2013 chances. But the rotation is full of question marks and the competition in 2013 will demand that those pitchers answer those questions. Asking all five guys to end up getting it done for you when the questions are both many and significant is just to much to ask.

 

The guy with the best chance of putting a yes next to his name is Felix as long as the question is "Will he have a solid season that shows a progression of success over 2012". If the question is "Will he leap to the top of the staff posting up 200 innings at a better than 4.00 ERA pitching as a left hander in Fenway and in the AL East", I would say....the answer will be no.

 

Lackey probably owns the biggest question mark of the rotation guys assuming his big question is "Will he pitch effectively and make a meaningful contribution as a starter his first year back from TJ particularly give the age factor".

 

The rest own question marks closer to Lackey's and farther away from Felix's in scope, scale and likelihood of of putting a yes there instead of a no.

 

Assuming that the team is set (which is probably not the case as they still have some room to the LT cap) it seems to me they won't have enough muscle to hang with the big boys who will very likely hit some against this pitching staff. They should beat their share of the league's dregs but will just lose to many games to the better teams either unable to pitch with them or hit enough to hang with them.

 

If you could pick 3.5 that is where I would be. I think they stand a decent chance of finishing 3rd in the AL East but could just as easily finish 4th. I do not think 3rd in the AL East captures the 2nd WC.

 

Even if they finally sign one SP that is not covered in ??? with this last dribble of money they have left, what kind of starter is that going to be with the money they have left. Not sure there is much to suggest finishing better than 3rd.

 

As for the business aspects of what they have done this off season.....I suspect this team will not pump the advanced ticket sales and once it starts losing enough games for fans to start to recognize the mid-pack finish as likely, they really have not put any interesting players or players that will generate much empathy from fans on this team. That is why I would have surrounded Hamilton with a bunch of the young guys instead of going down the path they have chosen. Hamilton puts two big bats in the middle of the lineup for 2013 and 2014 coupled with Ortiz. Surround those two big bats with a bunch of the kids and you have a team that is both interesting and fan friendly from the perspective of empathy. That team would likely lose more games than this team will but who cares. Missing the post season is missing the post season and they would be better set for 2014 my way I think than their way.

[rjortiz]

I think they're an 85 win team right now. With a little luck, they can make the playoffs.

[dupree]

If the rotation was not chock full of guys that are all question marks and the league now with a few truly impressive rosters you could be more optimistic about their 2013 chances. But the rotation is full of question marks and the competition in 2013 will demand that those pitchers answer those questions. Asking all five guys to end up getting it done for you when the questions are both many and significant is just to much to ask.

 

The guy with the best chance of putting a yes next to his name is Felix as long as the question is "Will he have a solid season that shows a progression of success over 2012". If the question is "Will he leap to the top of the staff posting up 200 innings at a better than 4.00 ERA pitching as a left hander in Fenway and in the AL East", I would say....the answer will be no.

 

Lackey probably owns the biggest question mark of the rotation guys assuming his big question is "Will he pitch effectively and make a meaningful contribution as a starter his first year back from TJ particularly give the age factor".

 

The rest own question marks closer to Lackey's and farther away from Felix's in scope, scale and likelihood of of putting a yes there instead of a no.

 

Assuming that the team is set (which is probably not the case as they still have some room to the LT cap) it seems to me they won't have enough muscle to hang with the big boys who will very likely hit some against this pitching staff. They should beat their share of the league's dregs but will just lose to many games to the better teams either unable to pitch with them or hit enough to hang with them.

 

If you could pick 3.5 that is where I would be. I think they stand a decent chance of finishing 3rd in the AL East but could just as easily finish 4th. I do not think 3rd in the AL East captures the 2nd WC.

 

Even if they finally sign one SP that is not covered in ??? with this last dribble of money they have left, what kind of starter is that going to be with the money they have left. Not sure there is much to suggest finishing better than 3rd.

 

As for the business aspects of what they have done this off season.....I suspect this team will not pump the advanced ticket sales and once it starts losing enough games for fans to start to recognize the mid-pack finish as likely, they really have not put any interesting players or players that will generate much empathy from fans on this team. That is why I would have surrounded Hamilton with a bunch of the young guys instead of going down the path they have chosen. Hamilton puts two big bats in the middle of the lineup for 2013 and 2014 coupled with Ortiz. Surround those two big bats with a bunch of the kids and you have a team that is both interesting and fan friendly from the perspective of empathy. That team would likely lose more games than this team will but who cares. Missing the post season is missing the post season and they would be better set for 2014 my way I think than their way.

 

Well said agree 100%

[Lucienbel]

If the rotation was not chock full of guys that are all question marks and the league now with a few truly impressive rosters you could be more optimistic about their 2013 chances. But the rotation is full of question marks and the competition in 2013 will demand that those pitchers answer those questions. Asking all five guys to end up getting it done for you when the questions are both many and significant is just to much to ask.

 

The guy with the best chance of putting a yes next to his name is Felix as long as the question is "Will he have a solid season that shows a progression of success over 2012". If the question is "Will he leap to the top of the staff posting up 200 innings at a better than 4.00 ERA pitching as a left hander in Fenway and in the AL East", I would say....the answer will be no.

 

Lackey probably owns the biggest question mark of the rotation guys assuming his big question is "Will he pitch effectively and make a meaningful contribution as a starter his first year back from TJ particularly give the age factor".

 

The rest own question marks closer to Lackey's and farther away from Felix's in scope, scale and likelihood of of putting a yes there instead of a no.

 

Assuming that the team is set (which is probably not the case as they still have some room to the LT cap) it seems to me they won't have enough muscle to hang with the big boys who will very likely hit some against this pitching staff. They should beat their share of the league's dregs but will just lose to many games to the better teams either unable to pitch with them or hit enough to hang with them.

 

If you could pick 3.5 that is where I would be. I think they stand a decent chance of finishing 3rd in the AL East but could just as easily finish 4th. I do not think 3rd in the AL East captures the 2nd WC.

 

Even if they finally sign one SP that is not covered in ??? with this last dribble of money they have left, what kind of starter is that going to be with the money they have left. Not sure there is much to suggest finishing better than 3rd.

 

As for the business aspects of what they have done this off season.....I suspect this team will not pump the advanced ticket sales and once it starts losing enough games for fans to start to recognize the mid-pack finish as likely, they really have not put any interesting players or players that will generate much empathy from fans on this team. That is why I would have surrounded Hamilton with a bunch of the young guys instead of going down the path they have chosen. Hamilton puts two big bats in the middle of the lineup for 2013 and 2014 coupled with Ortiz. Surround those two big bats with a bunch of the kids and you have a team that is both interesting and fan friendly from the perspective of empathy. That team would likely lose more games than this team will but who cares. Missing the post season is missing the post season and they would be better set for 2014 my way I think than their way.

 

Outside of the Hamilton thing I completely agree with this as well. Given what Hamilton ended up getting, I really don't see the advantage of signing him. If he ended up getting left dry and they could have swooped in for two years, maybe. The way it is now though, I don't see the logic in him.

 

With that said, I think the analysis on the pitching is good, both you and Jacksonian seem to have pretty good ideas with that. Also agreeing that the money they have left won't lock them up a pitcher that doesn't have some question marks. With that said, adding a guy like Marcum who does have question marks may not be the worst idea. He's always been pretty solid when he's healthy.

 

I like the 3rd or 4th place finish idea, and I'm going to predict the same. Someone else said it too, this team should have better chemistry. I know for a lot of fans not having a big name player or a winning team will probably turn them off, but I do imagine this team will be a lot more fun to watch than it has in the recent past. I'm excited for that at the very least.

[jacksonianmarch]

People throwing out 85-90 wins really need to also look at the division and see where those wins will come from. You have 72 of your 162 against teams in your division. And with the division being so good, it will be hard to really say that the sox are likely to be over .500 at all.

 

The team that finished the yr was actually a .300 team, when you look at the post-trade production. So basing things off a team that won 69 games isnt really accurate since the group that finished the yr would have won 49 games should they have played an entire season Throw in a healthy Ortiz and Middlebrooks plus the cadre of what-ifs in Dempster, Victorino, Gomes, and maybe Napoli and you have to wonder how many wins those guys offer. Plus, you figure the Blue Jays markedly improved and with the O's coming off a playoff bid, the Yankees pitching being healthy and back in the running for best rotation in the AL and the Rays always being a fly in the ointment and you have to wonder how many they win. I've said all along that I have the sox around 75-80 wins this yr barring a miraculous acquisition or ridiculously lucky season

[jung]

I actually thought four years (one less than he got) would have been optimal for Hamilton...enough years to build around him...not the ridiculous 6,7,8,10 year contracts MLB had been tossing around in years past.

 

If the Sox had enthusiastically embraced 5 years it might have been worth doing as that would have been 1 past what I thought was optimal. Six...can't do it. The 5th year may just be a useless year for all we know. I could not stomach going into the deal knowing I am very likely facing two useless years at the end. So I could have swallowed 5 years but not 6.

 

I would surely spend the remaining $$ on some sort of pitcher and there are so many question marks....what the hell....at this point is one more any worse. Just as I cannot figure that all the question marks will be answered with a yes, I also cannot rationalize a view that all the question marks will be answered with a no. If that is where you are, it probably makes more sense to roll the dice again and hope that another SP with question marks just ends up adding the chances that you get enough yes answers to make a difference. Why take a steady eddy at this point. I could go for Marcum as he has been on that list of guys worth pursuing since the start. He might cost more money than they have left though...just not sure.

 

That is what sort of bothers you about spending $10m for Drew. Sucked the last decent money out of them that they had...for what...Steven Drew???

[jacksonianmarch]

They're loading up on shorter term deals which allows them the capability to make a run at the pitching coming available next season. You have Halladay, Lincecum, Garza, and Wainwright who should be on the market, assuming the Phils dont pick up the $20 mil option on an aging Halladay

[rjortiz]

People throwing out 85-90 wins really need to also look at the division and see where those wins will come from. You have 72 of your 162 against teams in your division. And with the division being so good, it will be hard to really say that the sox are likely to be over .500 at all.

 

The team that finished the yr was actually a .300 team, when you look at the post-trade production. So basing things off a team that won 69 games isnt really accurate since the group that finished the yr would have won 49 games should they have played an entire season Throw in a healthy Ortiz and Middlebrooks plus the cadre of what-ifs in Dempster, Victorino, Gomes, and maybe Napoli and you have to wonder how many wins those guys offer. Plus, you figure the Blue Jays markedly improved and with the O's coming off a playoff bid, the Yankees pitching being healthy and back in the running for best rotation in the AL and the Rays always being a fly in the ointment and you have to wonder how many they win. I've said all along that I have the sox around 75-80 wins this yr barring a miraculous acquisition or ridiculously lucky season

 

I don't believe the Red Sox would have finished with 49 wins with that team last year, I think you are underrating them a bit.

[Lord Snow]

Assuming we sign Napoli or LaRoche, my prediction at this point would be 84-78 and out of the playoffs. Which doesn't mean I'm unhappy about the general offseason strategy. But my optimism is directed more toward 2014. Go prospects.

 

I don't understand all the support for "building from within". The Sox's farm system is depleted. We had a real boom about 8 years ago producing Youkilis, Papelbon, Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury & Bard. But since then things have gotten relatively stale.

 

There isn't much at the farm that I'm overly confident in to have an impact at the major league level. Xander Bogaerts had great success in 2012 but is still in the low levels of the minor leagues. Jackie Bradley inspires confidence as well but even he only has 60 games above A ball under his belt.

 

How many young A ball stars go to die in the higher levels and never have a meaningful impact in the bigs?

 

Matt Barnes hasn't pitched above A ball, Webster lacks command that he should have by now if he were to have a big impact on the club, De La Rosa is coming off TJ.

 

While these players all show some promise it's not as if we've got any players coming off a slugfest at AA &/or AAA. Or any arms dominating in the advanced minor league levels.

 

2013 is a make or break year for almost all of the top Red Sox prospects.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I don't understand all the support for "building from within". The Sox's farm system is depleted. We had a real boom about 8 years ago producing Youkilis, Papelbon, Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury & Bard. But since then things have gotten relatively stale.

 

There isn't much at the farm that I'm overly confident in to have an impact at the major league level. Xander Bogaerts had great success in 2012 but is still in the low levels of the minor leagues. Jackie Bradley inspires confidence as well but even he only has 60 games above A ball under his belt.

 

How many young A ball stars go to die in the higher levels and never have a meaningful impact in the bigs?

 

Matt Barnes hasn't pitched above A ball, Webster lacks command that he should have by now if he were to have a big impact on the club, De La Rosa is coming off TJ.

 

While these players all show some promise it's not as if we've got any players coming off a slugfest at AA &/or AAA. Or any arms dominating in the advanced minor league levels.

 

2013 is a make or break year for almost all of the top Red Sox prospects.

 

This is one of the most absurd critiques of a farm system I have ever read. The Red Sox farm is easily a top 10 system in baseball right now, there is no farm out there that is loaded with upper level prospects destroying AA/AAA. Every prospect out there has question marks, if "hasnt pitched above A ball" is the best critique you can come up with then I think we're in pretty good shape.

[Lord Snow]

This is one of the most absurd critiques of a farm system I have ever read. The Red Sox farm is easily a top 10 system in baseball right now, there is no farm out there that is loaded with upper level prospects destroying AA/AAA. Every prospect out there has question marks, if "hasnt pitched above A ball" is the best critique you can come up with then I think we're in pretty good shape.

 

My point is simply that almost every top prospect in the system is over a year away from the major leagues. None of them are beating down the door for a call-up. And a lot can happen in a year.

[Rdsxmbnt]

My point is simply that almost every top prospect in the system is over a year away from the major leagues. None of them are beating down the door for a call-up. And a lot can happen in a year.

 

Your argument was centered around the idea that you don't understand the support for build from within. What is your proposal then? Ship all these prospects out for veterans?

 

Before any of those established Red Sox players were successful major leaguers they were questionable prospects.

 

I don't think the core is that far away. Hell Rubby has already had success in the majors, assuming he heals properly I think he either makes the major league roster in April or is there very soon.

 

As for Webster, his command isn't great but neither was Jon Lesters. Stuff if far more important, a lot of young pitchers are wild to begin their careers and then settle in. Buchholz pitched 8 starts before getting the call to the majors, if Webster has a good start in AAA and there's an opening he's a potential mid-season callup.

 

As for Bogaerts and Bradley, they have already had success in AA. If their first 100+ AB look good I don't think the FO will hesitate to promote them. WMB had 100 AB in AAA before establishing himself as a major league regular, these promotions can happen very quickly.

[jung]

Because building through FA creates the kind of 25 players, 25 limos mentality that we just saw and that was in part responsible for the Sox "team" playing as poorly as it did. But that is just the tip of the iceberg. Not only do you often end up with a team that is low on the chemistry scale, they often don't roll up into a team that even compliments themselves in a baseball sense which is even worse. The more FA moves you make, the more you are banking on your ability to judge talent from afar....not something the Sox FO has proven particularly good at. You end up with a generally older, more injury prone team and guys that take longer to recover from their injuries. You end up with no cost controlled components to your team and thus no flexibility to move when you need to...it just goes on and on and on. No telling how many of these guys are using PED's and what will happen if and when caught or they decide to stop. If I was using and got my big deal....I would stop that day....consequences be damned. I got my money.

 

The best way to use FA is fill the holes you have on a team that you have basically nurtured through your system. That takes time but to build a team of FA's simply dooms you to a very costly assemblage of high risk, generally older, very independent players that you will be lucky to survive. The only reason the Sox have any shot at all in the near term is because LA rescued them from the nutcase deals they made with guys like Beckett in his extension and AGons and Crawford. While LA has so much money that they might actually be able to simply bring guys in and cast them aside if they don't work out bringing in even more as a part of the process. They actually have that kind of money and I think they are very likely to do that until they win one of these damned things. Nobody else including the Yanks can afford to do that.

 

You need a balance of players and if anything biased toward cost controlled younger players still working for their first big contract, established vets that were the younger players of your past (Pedey) and FA's when you need them where you need them.

 

By the time the Sox were done with the mess they made, the character of that team, the profile of that team had nothing to do with the Red Sox. That team was its FA's as disparate as they were, as independent as they were, as discombobulated as they were even in a baseball sense. Even as a fan you became more engrossed in the players that were on the DL, on the mend, just coming out of surgery or were just plain busts cause that is what that team was, a collection of big salaries and the names associated with those salaries, some of them having not played any decent baseball in years...enter Mr Cameron and Mr Jenks.

 

I for one am not even against big name, monster salary signings. This is after all a big market team. However I am wholly against building a team that way or through FA generally.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

75-80 wins.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If there was ever a year to be where we are, it's this year.

 

I understand that you are what your record says you are, but last year the Sox were more of a .500 team than a 69 win team. Severe underperformance and injuries to key players destroyed the season.

 

I think next season the Sox are around an 85-88 win team, and could flux down to 80 wins or up to 92-94 wins with a big year from Doubront, or from some surprise performances from Lackey and Dempster.

 

Having said all that, I think 90-92 wins will take the East. And I think every team will be in the mix outside of the Orioles.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't know what Jackso is talking about. This is the weakest I've seen the East in ages

[a700hitter]

I understand that you are what your record says you are, but last year the Sox were more of a .500 team than a 69 win team. Severe underperformance and injuries to key players destroyed the season.

SFF, you are one of my favorite posters and you are solid on player evaluations, but this ^ is an untenable statement. I am not saying this to pick nits or to argue, but we all need to feel the cold slap of reality of 2012. It was the year that opened our eyes to the fact that this is a bad organization on all levels of its baseball operations. Their marketing department is top shelf, and they have a great established fan base that stretches around the globe. The baseball operations needs an overhaul. Hopefully, we will see that they have made some progress in that regard in the next few years.

 

I really think they need to get some people in the organization who know and can evaluate pitching at all levels.

[jung]

Well I agree that the East is weaker than we have seen it in a long time especially when valued against the other divisions that have made big strides.

 

However I don't see the Sox as necessarily able to take advantage of that to such a degree that they can pull themselves up beyond 3rd.

 

The Jays have question marks without doubt...but they just have them at about 1 tier or maybe even 1.5 tiers higher than where we are. So whether they go far in their campaign...who knows....injuries can sidetrack anybody. But for example if Reyes works out for them his working out beats Drews working out by miles and miles. I don't see the Sox getting past the Jays. As for Jacko's comments on the Yankees, IF in fact their pitching is back intact and ready to roll, Jacko is right. There is simply no replacement for a heavy dose of pitching and over the 162 given where our pitching is, the Yanks would be tough to top given the relative differences. Where I am not ready to accept Jacko's analysis is that I am not ready to accept that the Yanks are all neatly back in order on the mound. If they are OK point well taken. However I don't believe they are there yet.

 

If the Yanks do get there, I think the best we get is fighting with the Rays for 3rd with either them or us finishing there, other guy finishing 4th and the Orioles ending up last. If anything the bottom 3 (Sox, Rays and O's) are closer to each than the top two (Jays, Yanks) again if and when the Yanks do have their pitching house fully in order.

 

This is were the relative weakness in the AL East hits home. For my money, 3rd in the AL East isn't going to get the 2nd WC this year and ends up going home.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know what Jackso is talking about. This is the weakest I've seen the East in ages

 

We'll see. Last year 3 teams won 90 games and the 4th team is the Jays. I guess you're expecting a big dropoff by the Yankees and Orioles.

[jung]

I think that the O's winning 29 one runs games is the outlier. How can anybody possibly win that many close games two years running. Yet they don't seem to be making changes sufficient to turn them to a high scoring, wide open team. They I think will play in a bunch of tight match ups again. They are not a bad team. When I look at everybody else, the O's seem to fall out the trap door at the bottom.

[Bellhorn04]

I think that the O's winning 29 one runs games is the outlier. How can anybody possibly win that many close games two years running. Yet they don't seem to be making changes sufficient to turn them to a high scoring, wide open team. They I think will play in a bunch of tight match ups again. They are not a bad team. When I look at everybody else, the O's seem to fall out the trap door at the bottom.

 

Possibly, but don't overlook that the O's were 38-20 down the stretch and their two best starters, Tillman and Gonzalez, were basically only with them the second half.

 

I really expected them to add a big bat in the offseason but it looks like Angelos refused to spend a dime on upgrading.

[jung]

That is what I thought would happen Bell cause I figured they would see that as the path to some easier victories. So far nothin'. I wonder if Angelos is torqued off cause the fans never showed.

[jacksonianmarch]

If there was ever a year to be where we are, it's this year.

 

I understand that you are what your record says you are, but last year the Sox were more of a .500 team than a 69 win team. Severe underperformance and injuries to key players destroyed the season.

 

I think next season the Sox are around an 85-88 win team, and could flux down to 80 wins or up to 92-94 wins with a big year from Doubront, or from some surprise performances from Lackey and Dempster.

 

Having said all that, I think 90-92 wins will take the East. And I think every team will be in the mix outside of the Orioles.

 

The bolded part is the most extreme level of rose colored hogwash I have ever seen. The sox were 60-67 when THE TRADE went down. They went 9-26 in their final 35 games. That is NOT a .500 team. You could make the case that if they stayed intact that they'd be a .500 team, but the team that finished the yr wearing Red Sox uniforms was not even close to a .500 team.