Lester on the block

[example1]

Not in "every sense of the word". There is not able to really compete for the division bridge year and at least remain competitive for a WC with an eye toward the immediate (as in 2014) bridge year. Giving up a 28 year old starting pitcher gives up on even a WC effort in 2013 and may even bring the plan for 2014 into question.

 

If they misjudge which of those bridge years it is they potentially set the organization back a number of years. Holding on to Lester so the team can be an 84-88 win team doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. I think they can be better than that, but even then what does that get them?

 

Let's say, just for the hell of it, that Myers turns out to be.. I don't know, Ryan Braun. If the next Ryan Braun is available for a pitcher who has two years left on his contract and then becomes a FA, don't you have to take that deal? Wouldn't it be foolish to pass it up? Especially if, at the time the deal was available, you literally had no chance of being a contender anyway?

 

I don't know.... it is a tough call. I suppose I'm so eager for the next generation of talent to get to Boston that I'm willing to have them roll the dice on a guy who might be a centerpiece for the next 6+ years.

[jacksonianmarch]

e1, I am sure the concern for sox fans is if Myers turns into Jay Payton

[BSN07]

e1, I am sure the concern for sox fans is if Myers turns into Jay Payton

 

That's just a fact of dealing with prospects. They are near sure things. But there are no sure things. I think Myers for Lester is a bold move. Similar to the Pineda for Montero deal(Pineda being less proven, but controlled for longer). Sometimes you have to take a shot at getting that possible future middle of the order bat that could anchor your lineup for 5-6 years at least.

 

This could potentially be trading for Mike Stanton before he got to the MLB level. I'm willing to risk the chance he flames out for that.

[example1]

e1, I am sure the concern for sox fans is if Myers turns into Jay Payton

 

Sure. There's always a risk.

[jung]

They already don't really have any pitching. Who throws the ball for the next couple of years. Is Red Sox nation willing to see them bridge as cellar dwellers for maybe two more years?

 

Guys that have been life long fans are already indicating here that for the first time in years they are not buying tickets. I am not buying tickets. I suspect that they have to become competitive again before a guy that has not even seen AAA pitching is ready to come up and do something for the big club.

 

Did you see that quote from BC that 700 put up? Does that look like a team that is really trading Lester?

 

Lester is a pitcher. If he gets back to peak form, you don't think the Sox wouldn't just resign him?

[BSN07]

They already don't really have any pitching. Who throws the ball for the next couple of years. Is Red Sox nation willing to see them bridge as cellar dwellers for maybe two more years?

 

Guys that have been life long fans are already indicating here that for the first time in years they are not buying tickets. I am not buying tickets. I suspect that they have to become competitive again before a guy that has not even seen AAA pitching is ready to come up and do something for the big club.

 

Did you see that quote from BC that 700 put up? Does that look like a team that is really trading Lester?

 

Lester is a pitcher. If he gets back to peak form, you don't think the Sox wouldn't just resign him?

 

I don't think they are going to expect big ticket sales. That's why I expect the payroll is going to be closer to 100M then 200M. When Myers(if a trade happens), Barnes, De le Rosa , Bogaerts are ready to join the ML team, interest will pick back up and the payroll will rise again to supplement the young core.

 

Lester is no lock to sign another team friendly extension this off season. And I doubt if he pitches good this year he's going to bi-pass a shot at free agency that's only a season away. He will be 30 when his deal is up. And is he pitches decently the next two seasons he's getting CJ Wilson money minimum. If he pitches well, he cold be looking at CC, Hammels, Lee money.

 

Another thought it who's to say the can't trade him, then when he's a free agent bring him back? Trade for Myers and build with the youngsters the next two years. Then when they are ready for their push they could always go out and sign him on the open market. Something they may very well have to do anyways. Just a thought.

[example1]

They already don't really have any pitching. Who throws the ball for the next couple of years. Is Red Sox nation willing to see them bridge as cellar dwellers for maybe two more years?

 

Guys that have been life long fans are already indicating here that for the first time in years they are not buying tickets. I am not buying tickets. I suspect that they have to become competitive again before a guy that has not even seen AAA pitching is ready to come up and do something for the big club.

 

Did you see that quote from BC that 700 put up? Does that look like a team that is really trading Lester?

 

Lester is a pitcher. If he gets back to peak form, you don't think the Sox wouldn't just resign him?

 

You make good points. At the same time, this team existed for a long time without Jon Lester and would exist after he's gone. I'm not saying he's expendable, he's not. At the same time, if he puts up another season like 2012 does it really matter? They might as well sign Brandon McCarthy or someone else. The team won't be without pitching over the next few years, they will just need to find more. Also, the market of available pitchers (through trade, FA, etc.,) will change over time. It sucks right now.

 

Trading Lester would be a bold move and could either lead to great things or a bunch of mediocrity for awhile. I'd rather they do bold things right now when the relative risk is lower, but I understand completely people hesitating about them giving up a semi-sure thing (Lester) for an unknown quantity.

 

Mostly its the reports about Myers skillset that have me impressed. The kid just seems to be a tremendous hitter for his age, with highly advanced power. He's shown it across multiple levels.

 

I actually see a lot of parallels with the Dodgers Crawford-Gonzo trade. It is very, very rare that a team takes on that much salary and gives something in return. It was too good an offer to pass up. It is also pretty rare for a small-market team to be seeking established veterans in exchange for the minor league player of the year on the cusp of breaking through with the big club. Other teams won't be doing that next year or the year after--that's why the Sox have to consider it strongly.

[a700hitter]

Myers is also reported to be just barely an adequate fielder and he has no speed. He is a1 dimensional player.

[example1]

What are you basing that on a700? Who is reporting that he is 1 dimensional? I've seen average speed with good arm. For a player with no speed it is strange that the Royals would have started him in CF more than any other position the last two years, and that other sites would list him as having above average athleticism.

[a700hitter]

What are you basing that on a700? Who is reporting that he is 1 dimensional? I've seen average speed with good arm. For a player with no speed it is strange that the Royals would have started him in CF more than any other position the last two years, and that other sites would list him as having above average athleticism.

Maybe the report(s) that i am recollecting said average speed, but the report was that he was 1 dimensional, not a multi tool guy like Harper or Trout.

[User Name]

John Sickels on Wil Myers:

 

With Bryce Harper and Mike Trout firmly established in the majors, the best outfield prospect in the minor leagues is now Wil Myers of the Kansas City Royals. He's tearing through the Pacific Coast League like a tornado on the prairie, devastating Triple-A competition for the Omaha Stormchasers.

 

 

Wil Myers was a high school catcher from High Point, North Carolina. Considered one of the best prep prospects available in the 2009 draft, he slipped to the third round due to large bonus demands and a University of South Carolina scholarship. The Royals met his demands, giving him a $2,000,000 bonus, equivalent to a mid first-round pick. Myers started his pro career by hitting .426/.488/.735 in 18 games for Idaho Falls in the Pioneer League.

 

Myers began 2010 with Burlington in the Low-A Midwest League, hitting .289/.409/.500 in 68 games, with 10 homers, 10 steals, 48 walks, and 55 strikeouts in 242 at-bats. Promoted at mid-season to High-A Wilmington, he hit .346/.453/.512 with 37 walks and 39 strikeouts in 205 at-bats. Keep in mind that both Burlington and Wilmington are difficult parks for hitters. The main negative was erratic defense behind the plate, but his bat looked tremendous.

 

The Royals dropped the catching idea at the beginning of 2011, moving him to the outfield. His season for Double-A Northwest Arkansas was disappointing: he hit just .254/.353/.393, although he maintained decent components with a 52/87 BB/K ratio in 354 at-bats. Poor health was a factor: he missed a month of the season with a knee injury, and even when on the field he didn't look quite right, not running as well as in the past and showing some problems with his swing.

 

Returning to Northwest Arkansas to begin 2012, Myers got off to a terrific start, hitting .343/.414/.731 in 35 games with 13 homers. Promoted to Triple-A Omaha last month, he's remained hot, hitting .333/.407/.719 in 26 games, with 11 walks and 20 strikeouts in 96 at-bats. Combined, he's hitting .339/.412/.726 on the season, with 17 doubles, 22 homers, 27 walks, and 62 strikeouts in 230 at-bats.

 

Myers is a 6-3, 205 pound right-handed hitter and thrower, born December 10, 1990. Although his speed is down a tick since high school and he's not going to steal a ton of bases, he runs well for a bigger player, well enough that the Royals have played him in center field this year. As befits a former catcher, he has a strong, right field quality throwing arm, although he's still working on the finer points of outfield play.

 

It is with the bat that Myers truly shines. Last summer he had difficulty with pitches inside, but adjustments to his batting stance closed up that hole. Having a healthy knee also helps, and Pacific Coast League observers report that pitchers haven't been able to find the key to getting Myers out consistently this year. He was very aggressive in the Texas League before his promotion, but has actually shown a better feel for contact in Triple-A. He works counts when necessary, but will jump on anything hittable, showing power to all fields. A few observers questioned his effort on the field last summer, but that hasn't been an issue this year. Again, the knee may have had something to do with that.

 

Myers has shown few weaknesses this year, although there are currently no clear openings on the major league roster. More Triple-A experience can't hurt him, but at some point, if the competition just isn't teaching him anything or challenging him, the pressure to promote him will increase.

 

I think Myers profiles better in the long run as a corner guy, but as Rob Neyer pointed out a few days ago, he's currently blocked by Jeff Francoeur and Alex Gordon.

 

In the short run, it boils down to this: will the Royals feel comfortable defensively with Myers in center field? As soon as the answer is yes, Myers will take his spot in the Royals lineup.

[jung]

OK so my sense of it from what I am reading from a bunch of baseball fans that care enough about the sport and a particular team to participate on a board like this is that there would be more tolerance to the Sox taking longing to come back to a competitive position.

 

I think were the rubber may well meet the road though is that when push comes to shove we are talking about THEIR revenue line....their bottom line....their incomes. At the end of the day the people that work in baseball are judged there, not by the number of flags flying over the place. Though surely there are parts of the organization that by function are more engaged and occupied by the winning of championships.

 

Having a Myers coming up maybe just a year after the B's get here or as they are getting here might well be appealing but the Sox with notable exception have few pitching prospects down there and for the foreseeable future it appears will have to supplement what pitching they have from outside the organization. This I suspect in an environment that more and more is beginning to remind me of the baseball I watched earlier in my life where pitching was even more dominant than folks who have been watching maybe since the 1980's have ever seen it. Certainly its getting more expensive.

 

The loss of more time before coming back to a competitive footing is on some level acceptable to me as well. But Sox Management can't sustain themselves on a level of acceptance that is below a threshold where I and others like me are willing to buy tickets and may even find things other than the Sox worthy of TV viewership.

 

Certainly offing Lester in the face of incredibly weak pitching as it exists right now says to me that regardless of what big everyday signing they might make including Hamilton that they will not have enough pitching to elevate themselves from 5th in the division....with the exception of 4th. A big everyday player signing may be enough to overcome the lose of a pitching asset by 2014 but certainly not by the coming season.

 

Or is it simply that Lester only has two years left on his contract and we don't think we will resign him even if we wanted to. Interesting cause how similar is that to Ells. Ells is an injury waiting to happen. He has not shown any signs of repeating his big break out season sooner or later. I sensed back when this was a hot topic that more people were in favor of keeping Ells regardless and would have been in favor of it even if some big everyday prospect for later years was being dangled.

 

My issue is that I think giving up on Lester is the equivalent of packing it in on the 2013 and the 2014 season and doing it so visibly that not only are the Sox going to have trouble with ticket sales and other revenue generators this year but next year. I am not convinced they are going to do that. Plus we now have BC telling us he thinks the best option for the Sox is the pitchers they have pitching to their potential, that there is no option that they can reach that would be better than that. Who do we think BC is talking about?

[Dojji]

Maybe the report(s) that i am recollecting said average speed, but the report was that he was 1 dimensional, not a multi tool guy like Harper or Trout.

 

I find myself not caring that much. This is not a speed team, if a guy can hit, and field his position OK, and he's playing on the corners, there's not a lot else that really matters.

[example1]

Maybe the report(s) that i am recollecting said average speed, but the report was that he was 1 dimensional, not a multi tool guy like Harper or Trout.

 

An interesting question about lingo arises. We often use the terms five-tool player and multi-dimensional. Is a player who hits for average, and power with a good arm one dimensional? Maybe...? But if to be multidimensional you have to be a five tool player then the universe of true multidimensionals is quite small. It doesn't take long to find examples of players whose skills in the five tools rank as mid-range to exceptional, who are extremely valuable. Hell, if the bat is good enough then being one dimensional doesn't matter all that much.

 

Overall, the point is overblown. The kid has the offensive potential of a first division, middle order bat at a very young age. When we are arguing in other places about Papelbon being worth 14m or about the necessity of bringing Ortiz back despite his inability to field or run at all, I suspect we would all be okay with a corner OF who put up a .940 OPS year after year, right?

[User Name]

In the case of Myers, he also has outstanding plate discipline for his age.

[jung]

Looks like Myers can hit and throw. I don't think I saw anybody making a case for him as a 5 tool player. I still think it is funny to see the "Sox will find somebody to pitch" comments when it should be clear to all of us that pitching is going back to some form of the dominance it had in the 60's and early 70's.

 

If you want to get a look at baseball without all of the things baseball has done to pump up offense in the intervening years and most importantly without expansion you need to take a look at some of those numbers.

[User Name]

But remember jung, that the Sox could get Myers then flip him in a package (or trade separately) with Ellsbury and some lower-end prospects for a couple of young pitchers who can help now and in the long term. That's what i would do, mostly because as you say, offense is really not that difficult to find in the FA market save for certain prohibitive positions.

[jung]

Now that would make some sense UN. I have to admit my confidence in the Sox ability to pull something like that off is not very great though.

 

That would be fine though. That would at least Parley Ells and Lester into something meaningful as their contracts come to a close.

[User Name]

The main problem with the Sox FO IMO (and we've had this discussion before) is the overvaluing of their own assets. There are several prospects over the years (Lars Anderson comes to mind) who have been dubbed great trade chips but have been blocked by in the farm system and position yet the Sox stubbornly hold on to them. They do this even though they really don't have a clear-cut future plan for the prospect and trading them to improve a position of weakness would improve the club overall in the long-term.

 

That's not how elite baseball teams operate.

[a700hitter]

An interesting question about lingo arises. We often use the terms five-tool player and multi-dimensional. Is a player who hits for average, and power with a good arm one dimensional? Maybe...? But if to be multidimensional you have to be a five tool player then the universe of true multidimensionals is quite small. It doesn't take long to find examples of players whose skills in the five tools rank as mid-range to exceptional, who are extremely valuable. Hell, if the bat is good enough then being one dimensional doesn't matter all that much.

 

Overall, the point is overblown. The kid has the offensive potential of a first division, middle order bat at a very young age. When we are arguing in other places about Papelbon being worth 14m or about the necessity of bringing Ortiz back despite his inability to field or run at all, I suspect we would all be okay with a corner OF who put up a .940 OPS year after year, right?

It doesn't matter whether he can throw the ball if he can' t catch it. His defense has been described as possibly not major league level. He is not a base stealer, so he is 1 dimensional insofar as he can only hit.

[jung]

Funny he would be the opposite of Ells who can catch it but can't throw it. But saying Myers cannot catch it at all would seem extreme. Clearly the way they describe his defense he is not going to chase down and catch balls in the outfield. I would prefer a guy that can chase it down catch it and throw it. Baring that give me somebody that can chase it down and catch it. What Myers appears to be would be my last choice, especially for CF. What the Royals accept in their CF would not be what I would want in ours. Then again the Sox will take a bat and live with lousy fielding almost all over the field.

[Plumpamania]

[User Name]

Funny he would be the opposite of Ells who can catch it but can't throw it. But saying Myers cannot catch it at all would seem extreme. Clearly the way they describe his defense he is not going to chase down and catch balls in the outfield. I would prefer a guy that can chase it down catch it and throw it. Baring that give me somebody that can chase it down and catch it. What Myers appears to be would be my last choice, especially for CF. What the Royals accept in their CF would not be what I would want in ours. Then again the Sox will take a bat and live with lousy fielding almost all over the field.

 

a700 is blowing smoke, as he tends to do. He was recently converted to the OF and he made enough strides there to play CF competently for a significant period of time. His defense is adequate right now, but with a ton of upside. That's the scout's takes, not mine.

[Plumpamania]

Wil Myers, mark my words, will be the next big thing along with Trout and Harper to be a generation of greatness, like Garciaparra, Jeter and Rodriguez did at shortstop in the late '90s.

[a700hitter]

Wil Myers, mark my words, will be the next big thing along with Trout and Harper to be a generation of greatness, like Garciaparra, Jeter and Rodriguez did at shortstop in the late '90s.

If he is that good, KC will not trade him.

[Plumpamania]

They will because they are KC and have a set of elite hitters up. They want a pitcher but w/o dealing anyone on team friendly contracts. Their rotation is atrocious.

[BSN07]

I think people are underestimating Myers defense. He was a C two years ago. And has been able to hold his own in CF. Bryce Harper has done the same thing. Biggest difference there is Harper has a howitzer for an arm.

[a700hitter]

They will because they are KC and have a set of elite hitters up. They want a pitcher but w/o dealing anyone on team friendly contracts. Their rotation is atrocious.

None of their other "elite" hitters are as good as Jeter, Garciaparra, or ARod, so why would they trade a guy as good as them?

[BSN07]

None of their other "elite" hitters are as good as Jeter, Garciaparra, or ARod, so why would they trade a guy as good as them?

 

Because they are proven and on team friendly deals. Myers how ever great he may be is an unknown. And becomes more available then the others when the team searchers for a #1 SP so they can win now so to speak. KC is making a push now. And probably will have to sacrifice Myers to be able to keep the current core together. In a perfect world I'm sure KC would love to keep Myers.

[Plumpamania]

Because they are proven and on team friendly deals. Myers how ever great he may be is an unknown. And becomes more available then the others when the team searchers for a #1 SP so they can win now so to speak. KC is making a push now. And probably will have to sacrifice Myers to be able to keep the current core together. In a perfect world I'm sure KC would love to keep Myers.

 

WE HAVE A WINNAH!~