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Posted

The Red Sox currently have the third worst ERA for starting pitchers in the American League, at 5.10. Lester, who has been much better of late, still has been a huge disappointment this year. Beckett was a disaster and is no longer with the team. Morales and Doubront have shown positive signs, but it is unclear what their ceiling is. Buchholz generally has been ok, but he hasn't performed like an ace. The Sox are throwing Matsuzaka and Cook out there every turn through the rotation, which certainly doesn't help the team ERA.

 

The Sox are going nowhere unless they improve the starting pitching, and significantly so. They have some good young arms, some intriguing minor league guys (Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa), some guys who should be excellent and who are in their prime years (Buchholz, Lester), a returning wild card (Lackey), and a bunch of minor league chips they could use as trade bait.

 

What do you think they should do? Let's not just say, "Trade for a #1." Say who you would go after, and why, and what you think it would reasonably take to get that guy. So a trade idea for Felix Hernandez can't be, Aviles, Ranaudo, and Iglesias for Felix.

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Posted

There are a few good pitchers that have one year left on their deals. I don't think trading for a "legit number 1" is going to happen, but I think trading for a potential number 1 could be a good idea.

 

The Red Sox have a habit of trading young cost-controlled backend pitchers for stars. Masterson, Gabbard, Weiland, Arroyo come to mind. I can see a sign and trade centered around Doubront for a guy like Peavy, Johnson, Santana. Garza, Haren and Lincecum also have one year left before they hit free agency, but I don't think they fall into the same class right now.

 

 

The Sox should ignore Greinke completely, and take a hard look at Sanchez, Dempster, Mccarthy and Marcum.

Posted
There are a few good pitchers that have one year left on their deals. I don't think trading for a "legit number 1" is going to happen, but I think trading for a potential number 1 could be a good idea.

 

The Red Sox have a habit of trading young cost-controlled backend pitchers for stars. Masterson, Gabbard, Weiland, Arroyo come to mind. I can see a sign and trade centered around Doubront for a guy like Peavy, Johnson, Santana. Garza, Haren and Lincecum also have one year left before they hit free agency, but I don't think they fall into the same class right now.

 

 

The Sox should ignore Greinke completely, and take a hard look at Sanchez, Dempster, Mccarthy and Marcum.

 

The guy that interests me is Josh Johnson. The Marlins are once again in fire-sale mode, so I'm sure he and his big remaining contract can be had. Fortunately, it's not a long contract so if he doesn't work out, the Sox aren't on the hook for many years to come.

 

He is coming off injury, and that concerns me, given that he has seen his average fastball velocity drop by a couple miles an hour. In 2010 he was averaging about 95 and this year he's down to about 93 (see: ). Can he be effective in the AL East with that velocity? Maybe.

 

He's the kind of *POTENTIAL* #1 starter I think they should go after. Tremendous upside, if he regains his form. Definite #1 should that happen. Coming off an injury, and expensive, so he's probably obtainable for a somewhat reasonable price. But, again, the contract isn't long so if it turns out to be a mistake, it won't hurt them for a long period of time.

 

Since there are no easy moves at this point, the Sox need to roll the dice a little. A healthy rotation of Johnson, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, and Morales/Doubront has a chance to be pretty good.

Posted
Lackey might have a hard time his first year back. He needs his secondary pitches to be successful. Seems to me the more pitches you have to train that new arm hanging off the shoulder to throw, the longer it takes to come back. Based on history Lackey is not going to be able to rear back and blow anybody away. Johnson would be a nice add but sounds more like a means to boost Morales/Doubront off the back end and moving the other guys down one notch. Probably still need another arm in the process.
Posted

Marlins want way too much for the injury prone Johnson. I'd pass.

 

I do think a pitcher like Marcum could help.

 

My rotation would be:

 

Lester

Buchholz

Marcum

Lackey

Webster/Barnes (whoever is better in ST)

Posted
Marlins want way too much for the injury prone Johnson. I'd pass.

 

I do think a pitcher like Marcum could help.

 

My rotation would be:

 

Lester

Buchholz

Marcum

Lackey

Webster/Barnes (whoever is better in ST)

I can't see handing the #1 spot to Lester next season. He is just not the same pitcher that he was 2 years ago.
Posted
Marlins want way too much for the injury prone Johnson. I'd pass.

 

I do think a pitcher like Marcum could help.

 

My rotation would be:

 

Lester

Buchholz

Marcum

Lackey

Webster/Barnes (whoever is better in ST)

 

Not bad. I think you still need an ace. Lester isn't one anymore and I don't know just yet if Buchholz is.

Posted
I can't see handing the #1 spot to Lester next season. He is just not the same pitcher that he was 2 years ago.

 

I still see 2013 as rebuilding mode. Therefore, the #1 doesn't matter. The "ace" is probably Buchholz at this point. Obviously, it will need to be someone better eventually.

Posted
Again folks, everyone is taking one of the three worst staffs in the league, adding a starter and saying "Whoa! Problems fixed!".

 

I couldn't agree more. Adding one or two starters won't fix the problem. I believe there is a fundamentally flawed approach to pitching in this organization. If BV goes or stays, it is extremely important that the club hire the right pitching coach. One thing I was surprised to learn that the starters apparently don't throw from a mound in between starts. Could this be one of the reasons for the universal problem that seems to plague every starter in the first inning?

 

I want them to re-think the organization's approach.

Posted
Again folks, everyone is taking one of the three worst staffs in the league, adding a starter and saying "Whoa! Problems fixed!".

 

The team built itself around Lester Buchholz, and to a lesser extent, Lackey. There is no getting rid of them, no matter what negatives you want to throw, they're here to stay, and there aren't better replacements available within ruining the farm.

 

The next two spots however, can make a very big difference to the team if they pull in a guy like Peavy or Johnson with a big trade, and then sign one of the mid-tier #3 type pitchers available in free agency. Picking up a #3 would slot the team like so:

 

Josh Johnson

Clay Buchholz

Marcum

Lester

Lackey

 

Buccholz has been very impressive the second half of the year. Lester as a #4 is pretty sweet, especially with his upside. And even if Lackey falls apart, they can fill the spot with someone like Aceves, Morales, Tazawa or any of the other options on the team who could possibly be a solid fifth guy-- pieces who you know will never pitch for you in the playoffs.

Posted
Again folks, everyone is taking one of the three worst staffs in the league, adding a starter and saying "Whoa! Problems fixed!".

 

What about "rebuilding year" states the problem is fixed? Also, my idea added 3 pitchers that weren't on the staff in 2012.

Posted

With the Dodger trade BC opened a lot of holes that need to be filled before 2013. Now starting pitching has been the problem for the Sox since the end of August last season. If the Sox could some how get that true number one pitcher then maybe the Sox SP could be better.

1. True number one

2. Buchholtz (Based on his stron second half)

3. Lester (Need to get the right pitching coach in here)

4. Doubront

5. Lackey (Are stuck with him unless he proves he can pitch and BC moves him)

 

I agree, if a true number one is not found then adding one year SP hoping to find a winner is not going to work. If it is a bridge year then that is probably what the Sox will do as they wait for Webster and Barnes.

Posted
The team built itself around Lester Buchholz, and to a lesser extent, Lackey. There is no getting rid of them, no matter what negatives you want to throw, they're here to stay, and there aren't better replacements available within ruining the farm.

 

The next two spots however, can make a very big difference to the team if they pull in a guy like Peavy or Johnson with a big trade, and then sign one of the mid-tier #3 type pitchers available in free agency. Picking up a #3 would slot the team like so:

 

Josh Johnson

Clay Buchholz

Marcum

Lester

Lackey

 

Buccholz has been very impressive the second half of the year. Lester as a #4 is pretty sweet, especially with his upside. And even if Lackey falls apart, they can fill the spot with someone like Aceves, Morales, Tazawa or any of the other options on the team who could possibly be a solid fifth guy-- pieces who you know will never pitch for you in the playoffs.

Marcum is always on the DL. He's not dependable at all.

Posted
Marcum is always on the DL. He's not dependable at all.

 

You do realize that he pitched 200 innings in 2011, and 200 innings in 2010, right? Sure, he's had injury issues this year, but that just means that he's going to make less money in 2013, possibly a good fit for a pillow contract. He's a pitcher who has show success in the AL East that can be had without killing the farm or the bank.

Posted

So, that kid who Keith Law said is the Red Sox top pitching prospect, you know, the one who still blazes 97-100 in the 6th inning ?

 

His name is Rubby De La Rosa. He'll be in the rotation next year, likely in the 4 slot. Keith Law, who is not at all generous in his assessment of prospects, said that if De La Rosa can just alter the arm slot of his slider to come out at the same slot as his fastball, he's going to be an ace.

 

I'm so happy the Red Sox finally have a farm system stocked with some high level pitchers (Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, Britton, Owens), and some really good bats (Bogaerts, Bradley, Brentz, Middlebrooks who just obviously graduated).

 

But, they need to make quite a few moves this offseason. Signing a guy like Napoli to a 3-4 year deal at $13mm would be a good start.

 

Make a couple trades. Trade 1 is for Justin Upton. Trade 2 is for Cliff Lee. Doubront is available for trade.

 

Go into the season with a rotation of Lee - Lester - Buchholz - De La Rosa - Lackey. That's a very solid rotation, and could certainly, with the right manager (I'm looking at you, Farrell), be right in the middle of the division race next September.

Posted
I would not expect to see De La Rosa until the 2013 call ups if then. He won't be anywhere near ready to be in the rotation at the start of 2013. That LA gave up pitching prospects in "the deal" is ridiculous to begin with. Even they are not whacky enough to give up ML ready pitchers for the start of 2013 one month away from the end of the 2012 season.
Posted
You do realize that he pitched 200 innings in 2011, and 200 innings in 2010, right? Sure, he's had injury issues this year, but that just means that he's going to make less money in 2013, possibly a good fit for a pillow contract. He's a pitcher who has show success in the AL East that can be had without killing the farm or the bank.
I am just very reluctant to waste time and money on a pitcher with known recurring arm injuries.
Posted
So, that kid who Keith Law said is the Red Sox top pitching prospect, you know, the one who still blazes 97-100 in the 6th inning ?

 

His name is Rubby De La Rosa. He'll be in the rotation next year, likely in the 4 slot. Keith Law, who is not at all generous in his assessment of prospects, said that if De La Rosa can just alter the arm slot of his slider to come out at the same slot as his fastball, he's going to be an ace.

 

I'm so happy the Red Sox finally have a farm system stocked with some high level pitchers (Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, Britton, Owens), and some really good bats (Bogaerts, Bradley, Brentz, Middlebrooks who just obviously graduated).

 

But, they need to make quite a few moves this offseason. Signing a guy like Napoli to a 3-4 year deal at $13mm would be a good start.

 

Make a couple trades. Trade 1 is for Justin Upton. Trade 2 is for Cliff Lee. Doubront is available for trade.

 

Go into the season with a rotation of Lee - Lester - Buchholz - De La Rosa - Lackey. That's a very solid rotation, and could certainly, with the right manager (I'm looking at you, Farrell), be right in the middle of the division race next September.

Wow, it's been a couple of months since you have been on this kind of sugar high. SFF, don't get your hopes up on this kid. You'll just be setting yourself up for heartache and devastation.
Posted
I would not expect to see De La Rosa until the 2013 call ups if then. He won't be anywhere near ready to be in the rotation at the start of 2013. That LA gave up pitching prospects in "the deal" is ridiculous to begin with. Even they are not whacky enough to give up ML ready pitchers for the start of 2013 one month away from the end of the 2012 season.

 

Wow, it's been a couple of months since you have been on this kind of sugar high. SFF, don't get your hopes up on this kid. You'll just be setting yourself up for heartache and devastation.

 

I've heard a ton of baseball people say that De La Rosa is a future star.

 

From Keith Law: "Rubby (De La Rosa) isn't rookie-eligible any more, but I'd rank him first, Webster second, Barnes third."

 

De La Rosa had just made his first appearance in 2012 right before the deal. He is coming off of TJS, which often times makes pitchers throw even harder (See: Tazawa). He's certainly MLB ready. Heard Kevin Kennedy on XM say the Sox will have De La Rosa in the rotation next year, and he's not a #4 or #5. He's a front of the rotation pitcher as is. And he's 23 right now.

 

De La Rosa will almost certainly be in the rotation next year. He'll be 24 going into ST next year. What the hell are we waiting on?? He had around 10 starts in 2011, tore his UCL, got the surgery, and is ready to come back. If you want to limit his innings, fine. But to say he's not big league ready? That's just not doing your homework.

 

Here's Law's take on De La Rosa via the WEEI Minor Details. http://audio.weei.com/a/62024117/minor-details-ep-35-keith-law-on-red-sox-prospect-haul-in-dodgers-blockbuster.htm

 

Here's what he said: "De La Rosa no longer exists on my prospect listing because he's got too much big league time. That's not a reflection of him no longer being a (top) prospect, it's just that once he's off his rookie eligibility, we take him off the list. If he were still a prospect, I'd have him at the top (of the prospects received in trade) followed by Webster who I think become the top pitching prospects in the organization. De La Rosa has a chance to be a front of the rotation starter. He has a huge fastball. He will pitch (not top out) at 95-98, he'll touch 100 as a starter, he's got a good change up."

 

He goes on to talk about the arm slot issues I discussed earlier, including "if his slider is just an average pitch, he's going to be a hell of a big league pitcher. I'm not worried about that, it's an easy fix."

 

Oh - And the last quote, which you'll find in Law's chat at the 4:55 mark - "De La Rosa is ready now. I mean, once he's stretched out. He pitched a few innings of relief for the Dodgers before being sent down as the PTBNL".

 

I don't know if you guys think I just spew ******** out of my ass for some reason, because I don't. The majority of the things I say is based entirely on a professionals opinion or assessment.

Posted
It would be great to slide a good young arm like De La Rosa into the rotation, but with the kids I think you can't rely on them to be can't miss pitchers for the rotation. Very few rookies break into a rotation as a number 1. If you have five major league tested pitchers penciled in going into spring training it is a plus, and then if a kid jumps up in the spring (De La Rosa) and over takes one of the older pitchers in the 5 hole that is a bonus. I think it would put less pressure on the kid as well.
Posted
I've heard a ton of baseball people say that De La Rosa is a future star.

 

From Keith Law: "Rubby (De La Rosa) isn't rookie-eligible any more, but I'd rank him first, Webster second, Barnes third."

 

De La Rosa had just made his first appearance in 2012 right before the deal. He is coming off of TJS, which often times makes pitchers throw even harder (See: Tazawa). He's certainly MLB ready. Heard Kevin Kennedy on XM say the Sox will have De La Rosa in the rotation next year, and he's not a #4 or #5. He's a front of the rotation pitcher as is. And he's 23 right now.

 

De La Rosa will almost certainly be in the rotation next year. He'll be 24 going into ST next year. What the hell are we waiting on?? He had around 10 starts in 2011, tore his UCL, got the surgery, and is ready to come back. If you want to limit his innings, fine. But to say he's not big league ready? That's just not doing your homework.

 

Here's Law's take on De La Rosa via the WEEI Minor Details. http://audio.weei.com/a/62024117/minor-details-ep-35-keith-law-on-red-sox-prospect-haul-in-dodgers-blockbuster.htm

 

Here's what he said: "De La Rosa no longer exists on my prospect listing because he's got too much big league time. That's not a reflection of him no longer being a (top) prospect, it's just that once he's off his rookie eligibility, we take him off the list. If he were still a prospect, I'd have him at the top (of the prospects received in trade) followed by Webster who I think become the top pitching prospects in the organization. De La Rosa has a chance to be a front of the rotation starter. He has a huge fastball. He will pitch (not top out) at 95-98, he'll touch 100 as a starter, he's got a good change up."

 

He goes on to talk about the arm slot issues I discussed earlier, including "if his slider is just an average pitch, he's going to be a hell of a big league pitcher. I'm not worried about that, it's an easy fix."

 

Oh - And the last quote, which you'll find in Law's chat at the 4:55 mark - "De La Rosa is ready now. I mean, once he's stretched out. He pitched a few innings of relief for the Dodgers before being sent down as the PTBNL".

 

I don't know if you guys think I just spew ******** out of my ass for some reason, because I don't. The majority of the things I say is based entirely on a professionals opinion or assessment.

 

I have high hopes for De La Rosa too, but none of us should expect much from him next year or the year after. The Sox certainly can't plan to build around around him as a key part of the rotation any more than they could have planned to build around Felix Doubront this year. De La Rosa might be a key piece for them, but we won't be able to confidently pencil him in for another few years. The AL East is an extremely tough place to establish yourself as a #1.

 

The Sox are really in a tough spot re: starting pitching. There aren't many obvious answers and they really shouldn't be parting with prospects for anyone who isn't a sure thing.

Posted
I've heard a ton of baseball people say that De La Rosa is a future star.

 

From Keith Law: "Rubby (De La Rosa) isn't rookie-eligible any more, but I'd rank him first, Webster second, Barnes third."

 

De La Rosa had just made his first appearance in 2012 right before the deal. He is coming off of TJS, which often times makes pitchers throw even harder (See: Tazawa). He's certainly MLB ready. Heard Kevin Kennedy on XM say the Sox will have De La Rosa in the rotation next year, and he's not a #4 or #5. He's a front of the rotation pitcher as is. And he's 23 right now.

 

De La Rosa will almost certainly be in the rotation next year. He'll be 24 going into ST next year. What the hell are we waiting on?? He had around 10 starts in 2011, tore his UCL, got the surgery, and is ready to come back. If you want to limit his innings, fine. But to say he's not big league ready? That's just not doing your homework.

 

Here's Law's take on De La Rosa via the WEEI Minor Details. http://audio.weei.com/a/62024117/minor-details-ep-35-keith-law-on-red-sox-prospect-haul-in-dodgers-blockbuster.htm

 

Here's what he said: "De La Rosa no longer exists on my prospect listing because he's got too much big league time. That's not a reflection of him no longer being a (top) prospect, it's just that once he's off his rookie eligibility, we take him off the list. If he were still a prospect, I'd have him at the top (of the prospects received in trade) followed by Webster who I think become the top pitching prospects in the organization. De La Rosa has a chance to be a front of the rotation starter. He has a huge fastball. He will pitch (not top out) at 95-98, he'll touch 100 as a starter, he's got a good change up."

 

He goes on to talk about the arm slot issues I discussed earlier, including "if his slider is just an average pitch, he's going to be a hell of a big league pitcher. I'm not worried about that, it's an easy fix."

 

Oh - And the last quote, which you'll find in Law's chat at the 4:55 mark - "De La Rosa is ready now. I mean, once he's stretched out. He pitched a few innings of relief for the Dodgers before being sent down as the PTBNL".

 

I don't know if you guys think I just spew ******** out of my ass for some reason, because I don't. The majority of the things I say is based entirely on a professionals opinion or assessment.

Your analysis is always solid, but your expectations may be just a little high. If he cracks the rotatiion next year, I am hoping that it is in the #5 slot, because I can't see us being a successful team rolling out a staff with Lacky, Doubront, Morales, and De LaRosa. Let the 4 of them battle it out for the 5th spot and the rest are depth options. Maybe he comes to Spring Training and shoots the lights out, but I am not counting on it, and hopefully, the FO is not planning on it.
Posted
If the FO is penciling De La Rosa any higher then number 5 then they putting to much hope on a kid that probably should start the season at AAA. If he comes into camp and blows the place up and makes the rotation great, but the worst case happening for the Sox is if they have a healthy De La Rosa pitching at AAA to start the season.
Posted
Even if DeLaRosa were to start 2013 as the 5 I would suggest that would not be a good sign for the Sox 2013. Then again, it might not matter anyway as there is much to be done that might be difficult to get done in 1 year. Unless something unpleasant happens (injury or something) I would hope to see him as part of the 2013 September call ups. If the 2013 rotation is a disaster and he is cutting up AAA, then we could see him before September in Boston. If everything went well I would expect to see him in the 2014 rotation at the start of that year.
Posted

I just cannot fathom why it would be a bad thing for De La Rosa to start in the rotation? The kid has electric stuff.

 

I'm not saying he's going to be a sub-3 ERA pitcher. But to expect him to be a 3.8-4.0 ERA pitcher with a solid K/9 next year? That's not at all out of the question.

 

I'm fine with him being a #5. Hell, he would be an elite #5.

 

I will agree with you all in this - The Sox have to go out and get MULTIPLE starting pitchers. Multiple. And front-rotation guys, too.

 

Buchholz and Lester need to be, at best, our #2 and #3 pitchers. But if we want to win, they will be our #3 and #4 pitchers, following guys like Cliff Lee and Dan Haren.

 

Lee - Haren - Buchholz - Lester - De La Rosa would be a disgusting rotation. I know, Lackey has to pitch. But if we're going to try to build and win at the same time, De La Rosa should be in the rotation.

 

The kid is ready now. I think he's going to surprise a lot of people.

Posted
I just cannot fathom why it would be a bad thing for De La Rosa to start in the rotation? The kid has electric stuff.

 

I'm not saying he's going to be a sub-3 ERA pitcher. But to expect him to be a 3.8-4.0 ERA pitcher with a solid K/9 next year? That's not at all out of the question.

 

I'm fine with him being a #5. Hell, he would be an elite #5.

 

I will agree with you all in this - The Sox have to go out and get MULTIPLE starting pitchers. Multiple. And front-rotation guys, too.

 

Buchholz and Lester need to be, at best, our #2 and #3 pitchers. But if we want to win, they will be our #3 and #4 pitchers, following guys like Cliff Lee and Dan Haren.

 

Lee - Haren - Buchholz - Lester - De La Rosa would be a disgusting rotation. I know, Lackey has to pitch. But if we're going to try to build and win at the same time, De La Rosa should be in the rotation.

 

The kid is ready now. I think he's going to surprise a lot of people.

If you have those other guys starting, I don't think that it would matter much who is in the 5th spot. If De LaRosa comes to camp and wins the final spot in the rotation from Lackey, Doubs and Morlaes, I think that would be a good thing. He'd have to pitch lights out in spring training to beat those guys out. He's not going to be able to pitch like Bard did last spring and win a rotation spot. I know some people think Bard had a good ST. He didn't. He looked like horseshit all spring. Lackey will have the inside track on the last rotation spot, because the team owes him a boatload of money. Doubs will have a strong claim based on his 2012 performance and Morales has shown that he can dominate for stretches too. De LaRosa will have to pitch very well to beat them out. If he can do that, it will be a good thing.

Posted

Well if DeLaRosa is supposed to be able to pitch right from the start of the 2013 season, I really question the sanity of the LA FO. Every expert you hear on the topic strongly suggests that the Sox would have taken the salary dump without getting anybody back and I agree with that. Without question, the Sox asked for the guys they got back and got them. Had LA said no deal or counter offered lower level prospects, the Sox would have had no choice but to have taken that deal.

 

At some point you have to believe that LA knows more about their people than anybody else. Never mind Magic Johnson. He is a figurehead that has nothing to do with baseball ops or anything else for that matter other than being a pretty face to put out there. If LA could have gotten out of this deal without giving up anybody and in the end gave up a starting pitcher that will be ready to go at the start of the 2013 season, they are either totally nuts or know something about DeLaRosa that you would only know from being on the inside.

 

Hence I am suggesting that he won't be ready for the start of the 2013 season but we shall see. If he pitches his way past Lackey with all the incentives the Sox have for putting Lackey in the 2013 rotation, who cares. However I remain skeptical at this point.

Posted
Well if DeLaRosa is supposed to be able to pitch right from the start of the 2013 season, I really question the sanity of the LA FO. Every expert you hear on the topic strongly suggests that the Sox would have taken the salary dump without getting anybody back and I agree with that. Without question, the Sox asked for the guys they got back and got them. Had LA said no deal or counter offered lower level prospects, the Sox would have had no choice but to have taken that deal.

 

At some point you have to believe that LA knows more about their people than anybody else. Never mind Magic Johnson. He is a figurehead that has nothing to do with baseball ops or anything else for that matter other than being a pretty face to put out there. If LA could have gotten out of this deal without giving up anybody and in the end gave up a starting pitcher that will be ready to go at the start of the 2013 season, they are either totally nuts or know something about DeLaRosa that you would only know from being on the inside.

 

Hence I am suggesting that he won't be ready for the start of the 2013 season but we shall see. If he pitches his way past Lackey with all the incentives the Sox have for putting Lackey in the 2013 rotation, who cares. However I remain skeptical at this point.

I agree. The deal was first and foremost a salary dump. LA was not going to assume that level of salaries and give us top prospects too. If we get anything from any of those guys, I will consider it gravy.

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