Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[SoxFanForsyth]

Apparently the Sox are still interested in Hamilton.

 

Here's a question. The Rangers just said they aren't going more than 3 years on him.

 

Since the Sox just cleared truckloads of money in the Punto trade, would you go 3/$100mm or 4/$120mm for Hamilton?

 

Essentially, you give him a stupid, stupid amount of money in AAV, but you limit him to only his prime years.

 

I think I would be willing to go up to around 4 years, $110-$120mm. It's not the money that I'm concerned with. It's that 5th and 6th and 7th year that I'm worried about.

 

Thoughts?

[Bellhorn04]

Apparently the Sox are still interested in Hamilton.

 

Here's a question. The Rangers just said they aren't going more than 3 years on him.

 

Since the Sox just cleared truckloads of money in the Punto trade, would you go 3/$100mm or 4/$120mm for Hamilton?

 

Essentially, you give him a stupid, stupid amount of money in AAV, but you limit him to only his prime years.

 

I think I would be willing to go up to around 4 years, $110-$120mm. It's not the money that I'm concerned with. It's that 5th and 6th and 7th year that I'm worried about.

 

Thoughts?

 

I think somebody will be willing to give Hamilton $150 million or more, but with some protection clauses in the contract.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think somebody will be willing to give Hamilton $150 million or more, but with some protection clauses in the contract.

 

That could be. But if someone gives him 7/150, wouldn't he be better off to take 4/$120mm and then during the final 3 seasons, go after a $12-14mm deal? That'd essentially give him 7/159.

 

I don't know. Maybe the Sox give him 4/$120 with a $20mm mutual option? Then he's just $10mm short of that deal with 2 years to make it up, or $30mm short with 3 years to make it up.

 

I think he'd be very interested in a short term, high AAV deal.

 

I am curious if people would be willing to give it to him.

[mvp 78]

I wouldn't give him more than 2/$32.

 

Is that less than he'd get elsewhere? Yup, but that's my limit.

 

$30M per year is ridiculous for him imo.

[jung]

Well I am not convinced you could get much contractual protection for a "condition" which is what Hamilton has. That is surely how it will be treated contractually. In any event I do not think anybody will go past four years in a Hamilton contract but I think he will get four since the Rangers have drawn the line at three. No chance he will get five.

 

I think for term at least at present:

the ten year contract is dead

seven years reserved for young healthy highly productive players

five years reserved for late 20's/early 30's, productive players with manageable injury issues

four years going to late 20's productive players with questionable injury issues

three years going to older productive players

two years or less going to fill in guys, average guys or mid to high 30's players

 

I suspect teams will begin their negotiation with players about one tier south of where they are willing to go with players beginning at much longer terms but getting virtually no action at the longer terms. Hence the possibility of an eventual collusion suit since the phone will be virtually silent at the longer terms.

 

Obviously this post is reeking with opinion just to be clear.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I wouldn't give him more than 2/$32.

 

Is that less than he'd get elsewhere? Yup, but that's my limit.

 

$30M per year is ridiculous for him imo.

 

$16mm per year is ridiculous IMO.

 

The biggest concern with him is longevity. In the short term, he's going to give you a ridiculous talent. Since there's really no budget for the Sox this year, and the Sox are going to be filtering in young talent like Brentz, Bradley, Bogaerts, De La Rosa, Webster, Barnes, Iglesias, and Middlebrooks over the next 2-3 years, they'll have the flexibility to go out and drop $30mm on him because they're not going to have to shell out a big deal for LF, CF, SS (long term), SP/CP, SP, SP, SS (short term), 3B.

 

If there was ever a time that the Sox would be able to do this, it would be this year. Signing Hamilton, Sanchez, and LaRoche puts this team right back into playoff contention. And none of those guys (outside of Sanchez) would require more than 4 years.

[redsoxfan3]

I would be a no on Swisher for 4/40. I would be willing to increase AAV and do 2/25.

 

I am not willing to ever give Ross 13 million AAV, even if in is one year. I would probably do 2/12 or 3/18. If he doesn't like that, we pass. There are other options out there.

 

I am hoping we can sign Hunter.

 

Sanchez wants 6/90 or 7/100. Whay are everyone's thoughts about that?

[mvp 78]

I'd rather two $15M players than one Josh Hamilton at $30M.

[jacksonianmarch]

Swisher is gonna get $13-$15 mil per yr for at least 4 yrs. There are tons of teams starved for offense out there and Swish is consistently above average

[SoxSport]

Hamilton is the one guy they could get their money back on--in ticket sales and endorsements. They are going to take a hit in revenues unless this team can get back on track quickly. Hamilton would be enough of a draw short term to give them time to get better. When he's healthy, he's as good as any hitter in baseball. And he can still play the outfield. He isn't too old.

 

You hate to hear stories about Torie Hunter. He has Cameron written all over him. The last thing they need are ancient mariners on a young team. Papi is enough.

[rjortiz]

Apparently the Sox are still interested in Hamilton.

 

Here's a question. The Rangers just said they aren't going more than 3 years on him.

 

Since the Sox just cleared truckloads of money in the Punto trade, would you go 3/$100mm or 4/$120mm for Hamilton?

 

Essentially, you give him a stupid, stupid amount of money in AAV, but you limit him to only his prime years.

 

I think I would be willing to go up to around 4 years, $110-$120mm. It's not the money that I'm concerned with. It's that 5th and 6th and 7th year that I'm worried about.

 

Thoughts?

 

$30 million AAV for Hamilton?

 

Ignorant.

[SoxFanForsyth]

$30 million AAV for Hamilton?

 

Ignorant.

 

All of your posts?

 

Ignorant.

[rjortiz]

All of your posts?

 

Ignorant.

 

Says the guy whose fearsome rotation has Lincecum and Haren at the front, and Jackie Bradley Jr. playing RF.

[BSN07]

Hamilton is probably going to want as long of a contract as he can get. There no telling how he will age and if his early drug use will have some long term effect. if I was Hamilton I wouldn't be guaranteeing that I'm gonna get another contract in 4 years. So I would want the longest one I can get. And more often then naught there will be some GM/Owner willing to gamble and offer twice the guaranteed years Texas is rumored to be offering.

 

I think Hamilton gets minimum 5/130M wherever he goes.

[TutGadol]

3/150? What happened to rebuilding? I don't think the team should go for any of the big FAs right now. Especially if they aren't pitchers.

[BSN07]

They are rebuiding/retooling. The Hamilton talk is just the Hot Stove being the Hot Stove. I don't have any false hopes that Hamilton is a likely addition.

[jung]

Well 5 years for Hamilton suggests that a team can get some real, practical, language in the contract that they can bring to bear in a very real sense and I just don't think that will happen...hence I think he will end up at four years but with juicy per annum salary.

[wyo-sox]

I do not mind the idea of Hamilton at 3-4 years 12-14 mill a year range. But only if they get a couple stud pitchers. Without a better pitching staff any money invested in bats is wasted money.

[jung]

Agreed wyo and I just do not have a lotta' faith in the guys they have at the moment without seeing an add or two to that rotation.

 

I think it interesting that because the Yanks are sorta' stuck with Arod and want Cano, they may not be able to justify the cash for Kuroda.

[BSN07]

Hamilton is most likely to get 20M per year minimum. 12-14M is the qualifying offer he's going to turn down.

[jung]

I don't see Hamilton getting less than $20M per year and probably more. That will be the way teams go after him I think....less term but big money per annum. Try go get the best years out of him, limit the exposure to injury and/or other issues and pay him big money per annum for it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't see Hamilton getting less than $20M per year and probably more. That will be the way teams go after him I think....less term but big money per annum. Try go get the best years out of him, limit the exposure to injury and/or other issues and pay him big money per annum for it.

 

This is exactly why I think the Sox should consider something like 4/120 for him.

[rjortiz]

This is exactly why I think the Sox should consider something like 4/120 for him.

 

He'd need to be a 6 win player to justify that kind of contract.

[SoxFanForsyth]

He'd need to be a 6 win player to justify that kind of contract.

 

Not all dollars are created equal.

 

If the Sox have a hole, they can go out and overspend on a player like Hamilton to limit the back end of the deal to only 4 years and still get someone who helps them immediately.

[BSN07]

I still think some GM is going to jump the Shark and give 5-7 years. If Boras was his agent he might get 8/200M lol

[Palodios]

Hamilton at 32 million per year would be out of hand.

 

Would you rather have Stephen Drew, Napoli, and Kuroda, on short term deals or Josh Hamilion on a four year deal? The Red Sox have too many holes to fill-- Signing Hamilton would be the equivalent of putting a golden spoon underneath a leaky ceiling.

[jung]

Well there are only so many teams that can even consider signing Hamilton. Some of those have shot their wads on other players. I would guess that there is something like 5 maybe 6 teams total with a legit shot at signing him. With that kinda' field I just don't see somebody upping the anti in term for a Hamilton....total money I can see but not term.

[Palodios]

Sounds like the Brewers, Orioles and Mariners are all in on him. Its not like he doesn't have suitors.

[jung]

Hamilton's per annum and term will have to fall into a range that allows the Mariners or Brewers to play and Angelos may well nix a deal even if his FO pursues one with Hamilton.

[example1]

Here are Hamilton's OPS during the past 5 seasons:

2009: .741 (89 games)

2010: 1.044 (133 games) (MVP)

2011: .882 (121 games)

2012: .930 (148 games)

 

His production is really impressive, but is he really a $30m player with those numbers?

 

OBP:

 

2009: .315

2010: .411

2011: .346

2012: .354

 

He's not a guy who, if his power disappears, is going to make up for it with great ABs.

 

Finally, if there's a chance that he's been juicing/HGH'ing, I would be afraid of a post-contract letdown.

 

 

If the Sox sign him I will be excited like most other people, but it doesn't seem like he's a sure-bet to be better than, say, Adrian Gonzalez was yet he would cost 10m more per-season.