What do the Red Sox need to do to make the playoffs?

[Bellhorn04]

Agon's pop is diminished, that's for sure. We can only hope that he's had some weakness or something in his shoulder that will heal. At least he's getting some hits.

[a700hitter]

No offence man' date=' but you're not keeping up with what's been going on. The pitching was atrocious in September/11 and again in April/12 but it has vastly improved since May 1.[/quote']I think you are overstating the improvement since May 1st. Everything is comparative to the competition. Yes, the starting pitching has improved since the end of April, but it has improved only from 13th out of 14 to 11 out of 14. That is not good enough.

[BornToRun]

Yeah' date=' it looks ominous at the moment. I don't think Epstein can be faulted for the Gonzo deal though. I'd say about 90% of Sox fans wanted Gonzo, and when it looked like the deal might fall through people were livid. It's all part of the perils of being a rich team and signing $150 million contracts. Maybe we should cease and desist with these types of contracts forever. There are very few sure things.[/quote']

 

Not attacking you here but can we stop calling gonzo a bust? Can we wait until he actually is one to do that? He had an MVP type year last year and we still have half the season this year.

 

Rizzo's been up for a week for the love of god and already he's superman.

 

Getting gonzo was a solid move.

[a700hitter]

I think we have to look at our starting pitching with clear eyes. Neither Lester nor Beckett have had anything close to ace-worthy seasons. Heck they have not even had good seasons for a #3 starter. We can't evaluate these guys by saying if you drop this start or that start or a certain month, they are having good years. That just doesn't fly. Buchholz was horrible until June and after a handful of good starts, he goes on the DL with a mystery condition. Look at his overall numbers, not the last month. Look at the whole body of work. It sucks. Bard was a disaster. There's no good way to spin that experiment and anyone that spins it positive risks any shred of credibility. Doubront has exceeded expectations, but those expectations were extremely low. He has been an average #5. Dice K, whose return was eagerly anticipated, is still the same garbage that we remember from the past 3 years. We are left pinning our hopes on a lefty specialist reliever (Morales)and a soft tosser with a long medical history (Cook). Step back and look at the whole picture, not some trends or the last road trip. It is an ugly picture.

[a700hitter]

Not attacking you here but can we stop calling gonzo a bust? Can we wait until he actually is one to do that? He had an MVP type year last year and we still have half the season this year.

 

Rizzo's been up for a week for the love of god and already he's superman.

 

Getting gonzo was a solid move.

He has 6 more seasons under this contract, so he has plenty of time to prove himself, but it will be hard for him to have a representative 2012. If he hits like crazy and goes on a power tear in the second half knocking out 20 HRs, he'll still only have 26 on the season, which would have been below most expectations for him coming into the season. FHe has a big uphill battle to salvage 2012.

[redsoxbeatz]

Not attacking you here but can we stop calling gonzo a bust? Can we wait until he actually is one to do that? He had an MVP type year last year and we still have half the season this year.

 

Rizzo's been up for a week for the love of god and already he's superman.

 

Getting gonzo was a solid move.

 

for ONE-HUNDRED FIFTY-FOUR MILLION DOLLARS ($154mm) Gonzalez shouldn't be in a horrific slump (compared to his career average) for half-a-season.

 

It was a good sign, not for that much money though. The contract should include goals he has to reach each year to make the maximum for that year. If he falls below said goals or averages he gets less that year.

 

I mean, I'm glad he is on our team since his average performance is sure to return. But for that much money? Bust. Who honestly lives up those kind of contracts?

[a700hitter]

I don't think any members of TalkSox at the beginning of the season expected that the Sox would own a share of last place on the 4th of July. It's really sobering when you think that the results have been worse than had been predicted by even the biggest pessimists.

[DocHolliday]

I don't think any members of TalkSox at the beginning of the season expected that the Sox would own a share of last place on the 4th of July. It's really sobering when you think that the results have been worse than had been predicted by even the biggest pessimists.

 

Overall, this season has been very strange up to this point. Almost nobody could have predicted the Orioles would be where they are in the standings at this point. Their play has really improved the level of competition in the division as a whole.

[redsoxbeatz]

It just goes to show you that baseball is an unpredictable sport regardless of all those stats.

 

Can't wait for Morales start Saturday morning.

[Bellhorn04]

I think you are overstating the improvement since May 1st. Everything is comparative to the competition. Yes' date=' the starting pitching has improved since the end of April, but it has improved only from 13th out of 14 to 11 out of 14. That is not good enough.[/quote']

 

I agree with the last sentence. As for the improvement though, if you look at the rankings we have really made a move. We're just percentage points away from being right in the middle of the pack. We're 8th in runs allowed per game, which shows how small some of the gaps are.

 

Anyway, I think jung had the most sobering observation, that our pitching has been getting better against weaker offenses. This Yankee series will be a reality check.

[SoxSport]

I think there's a good chance the Orioles will stick this season. They have good management, and some good young players who are now experienced. Toronto has a GM who never lets up. They are competitive.

The Red Sox have had bad management the last few years, and have let their advantage slip. They are a complacent organization, and Henry has done nothing to change that. Their expensive signings the last couple of years look like a disaster right now. They will need a reversal of fortune to recover their advantage. That may take a change of management--or ownership.

[a700hitter]

I agree with the last sentence. As for the improvement though, if you look at the rankings we have really made a move. We're just percentage points away from being right in the middle of the pack. We're 8th in runs allowed per game, which shows how small some of the gaps are.

 

Anyway, I think jung had the most sobering observation, that our pitching has been getting better against weaker offenses. This Yankee series will be a reality check.

Yes, the Yankees lineup will show the true state of the Starting pitching. I am very hopeful about Morales prospects. I think they may have stumbled upon something special. I wish he was pitching the second game on Saturday, because I will be at that game. Beckett gets to set the tone on Friday night. He and Lester have been huge disappointments this season. There's no other way to view it. They need to have big second halfs. I think Lester is losing it. He declined last year and he is declining further this year. Unless he figures things out in the second half and has a lights out ace-like second half, I would trade him while he still has good trade value. I don't need to see stats to see that his effectiveness is declining. I am sure that the stats bear out that observation. When a pitcher tells you that he feels good and he is throwing well, but he's giving up runs, it is probably time to bail on him.

[jacksonianmarch]

what is going on here?

[jacksonianmarch]

Every time I try to post, I get a forbidden display. Now it is just when I cut and paste a line about the O's

[example1]

General disappointment. Befuddlement. A very talented team, very inconsistent. Over performing AAA players, underperforming established stars. Losses in close games, poor execution, injuries, injuries, injuries.

[a700hitter]

I think there's a good chance the Orioles will stick this season. They have good management, and some good young players who are now experienced. Toronto has a GM who never lets up. They are competitive.

The Red Sox have had bad management the last few years, and have let their advantage slip. They are a complacent organization, and Henry has done nothing to change that. Their expensive signings the last couple of years look like a disaster right now. They will need a reversal of fortune to recover their advantage. That may take a change of management--or ownership.

Yep. It's time for new blood in the FO. Cherries getting promoted to GM is the Peter Principle in practice. Let's not delude ourselves thinking that we have such an influx of young talent coming in the next year or two. If things work out, Middlebrooks will step in and become what Youk had been not that long ago, but I am not expecting him to be a cleanup hitter with a .900+ OPS. Iron glove Kalish will probably step in and take a starting spot in the OF, but will he be more valuable to the Sox than Ross has been this season. Iglesias still can't hit and the FO knows that so they drafted a SS in Marrero. Finally, when will we see some top pitching coming up? Barnes is 22. He hasn't yet dominated in AA, so it's premature to tag him with the label of "phenom". In the meantime, our good players like Ortiz and Ellsbury are aging or getting ready to move on. This organization has a lot of challenges ahead. They had better be damn sure that Cherries is not over his head. When a top organization unravels, it can take some time to rebuild it.

[a700hitter]

what is going on here?

I haven't been able to access the site this weekend from my home laptop. I have been posting from my work blackberry. Yeszir is working on it.

[redsoxbeatz]

General disappointment. Befuddlement. A very talented team' date=' very inconsistent. Over performing AAA players, underperforming established stars. Losses in close games, poor execution, injuries, injuries, injuries.[/quote']

 

Aaaaaaaaaand this is why 2013 should be better.

[Bellhorn04]

I would not be in any great hurry to unload Cody Ross. He's not a good fielder but he's a very solid RH bat who crushes lefties and has a swing made for Fenway. Seems like a good guy as well. And he's cheap. Keep the man, I say.

[SemperFi Sox]

Aaaaaaaaaand this is why 2013 should be better.

 

why? they had the chance this past offseason to get rid of dead weight players who were cancers and did nothing. Why should 2013 be any different?

[a700hitter]

I would not be in any great hurry to unload Cody Ross. He's not a good fielder but he's a very solid RH bat who crushes lefties and has a swing made for Fenway. Seems like a good guy as well. And he's cheap. Keep the man' date=' I say.[/quote']I agree, but he is blocking the progress of Klank Glove Kalish.

[a700hitter]

why? they had the chance this past offseason to get rid of dead weight players who were cancers and did nothing. Why should 2013 be any different?

Yep, there is no reason at this point to think 2013 will be better. We thought 2011 would be better than 2010, and we had reasons for that. We thought 2012 would be better than 2011, and we had no reason for that. At this point, we have no reason to think 2013 will be better than 2012. Mere hope is not enough.

[Bellhorn04]

Yep' date=' there is no reason at this point to think 2013 will be better. We thought 2011 would be better than 2010, and we had reasons for that. We thought 2012 would be better than 2011, and we had no reason for that. At this point, we have no reason to think 2013 will be better than 2012. Mere hope is not enough.[/quote']

 

Well, if we end up 78-84 this year, there will be some reason to think 2013 will be better.

[a700hitter]

Well' date=' if we end up 78-84 this year, there will be some reason to think 2013 will be better.[/quote']Based on what at this point?

[Bellhorn04]

Based on what at this point?

 

Just joking...if our final record this year really really sucks it increases the chances we'll improve on it next year.

[a700hitter]

Just joking...if our final record this year really really sucks it increases the chances we'll improve on it next year.

I am sure a lot of Cubs fans felt the same way after 2011.

[FredLynn]

General disappointment. Befuddlement. A very talented team' date=' very inconsistent. Over performing AAA players, underperforming established stars. Losses in close games, poor execution, injuries, injuries, injuries.[/quote']

 

I think its time we considered just how much talent there really is on this team. The starting pitching staff in particular has not shown much talent for many years now. The "middle of the pack improvement" is ludicrous. Who here is satisfied with that? Yet thats where they are, and that kind of talent is not going to either deserve or make the playoffs, at least not for more than a single playoff game. I am not satisfied with that; I doubt anyone else here is satisfied with that; and our FO should not be allowed to foist that kind of product on us.

Just because these guys play for the Red Sox does not mean that they are talented. I think there is a bias in judging just how talented a Red Sox player is because we all want them to be more talented than they really are. Where is the EVIDENCE for that talent? I don't see it.

[FredLynn]

Well' date=' if we end up 78-84 this year, there will be some reason to think 2013 will be better.[/quote']

 

Joking aside, that is probably true. If our record is bad enough this year the fans are going to make last year's John Henry roast look like a picnic. They are going to vote in droves to boycott, either actively or through apathy, the actual games. No one likes a loser, least of all RSN. It is entirely possible that it is in our best interests for this team to have the worst possible record this year so that change is forced upon our owners sooner rather than later.

[jacksonianmarch]

An angry fan base is a passionate one and one you wil still make money off of. An apathetic fan base is a revenue killer. A few more years of missing the playoffs, and the fans will start to sink back into the apathy/inferiority thought process

[Bellhorn04]

Joking aside' date=' that is probably true. If our record is bad enough this year the fans are going to make last year's John Henry roast look like a picnic. They are going to vote in droves to boycott, either actively or through apathy, the actual games. No one likes a loser, least of all RSN. It is entirely possible that it is in our best interests for this team to have the worst possible record this year so that change is forced upon our owners sooner rather than later.[/quote']

 

You know what, I'm starting to get on board with the idea that we need changes at the top right up to the ownership. That doesn't mean I have anything bad to say about Henry. I don't. He played a big part in...well, you know the rest. But I'm starting to get the feeling that this group has cycled out.