What do the Red Sox need to do to make the playoffs?

[Bellhorn04]

The problem the first month of the season was the pitching. It has improved a lot since then. The offense has not been that great lately, such as on this road trip. Gonzo and Pedroia are having subpar seasons and we miss Ellsbury.

[a700hitter]

The problem the first month of the season was the pitching. It has improved a lot since then. The offense has not been that great lately' date=' such as on this road trip. Gonzo and Pedroia are having subpar seasons and we miss Ellsbury.[/quote']#2 in runs scored, #11 in ERA for the 2012 season to date, not the first month. Starting pitching is this team's problem. Cherries has identified it as the #1 need.

[Bellhorn04]

#2 in runs scored' date=' #11 in ERA for the 2012 season to date, not the first month. Starting pitching is this team's problem. Cherries has identified it as the #1 need.[/quote']

 

Come on now, you know that the statement 'Starting pitching is this team's problem' is an oversimplification. On the other thread you pointed out that we'll only have one power threat in the series vs. the Yankees.

 

Which is not to say that the addition of a good starting pitcher isn't the most desirable move right now, I agree that it is. But we also need Gonzo and Pedroia to produce more, and WMB and Ellsbury to come back and produce or we're going to have trouble with our offence as well.

[User Name]

Come on now, you know that the statement 'Starting pitching is this team's problem' is an oversimplification. On the other thread you pointed out that we'll only have one power threat in the series vs. the Yankees.

 

Which is not to say that the addition of a good starting pitcher isn't the most desirable move right now, I agree that it is. But we also need Gonzo and Pedroia to produce more, and WMB and Ellsbury to come back and produce or we're going to have trouble with our offence as well.

 

Excellent assesment. Sound logic.

[a700hitter]

Come on now, you know that the statement 'Starting pitching is this team's problem' is an oversimplification. On the other thread you pointed out that we'll only have one power threat in the series vs. the Yankees.

 

Which is not to say that the addition of a good starting pitcher isn't the most desirable move right now, I agree that it is. But we also need Gonzo and Pedroia to produce more, and WMB and Ellsbury to come back and produce or we're going to have trouble with our offence as well.

An oversimplification, but the still the team's main deficiency. If our starters had been in the top half of the league, we would be right at the top with the Yanks despite the OF injuries. Nava and Pods have hit better than Crawford would have hit. We were very lucky to have them fill in. Our biggest offensive problem has been AGon. That has nothing to do with injury. He is a main cog and he has been all but absent.

 

I am sick of whiny fans whining about injuries. Our starting pitching has sucked-- the Bard experiment was a complete abortion. Dice K stinks. Lester and Beckett have underperformed. Our best hitter AGon has been terrible. We are where we are because of execution not injuries.

[Bellhorn04]

One interesting point on the Red Sox pitching: the team's road ERA is now 3.69, which is much lower than the league average ERA of 4.03. The Fenway Park Factors this year are 109/108, even higher than usual.

[FredLynn]

An oversimplification, but the still the team's main deficiency. If our starters had been in the top half of the league, we would be right at the top with the Yanks despite the OF injuries. Nava and Pods have hit better than Crawford would have hit. We were very lucky to have them fill in. Our biggest offensive problem has been AGon. That has nothing to do with injury. He is a main cog and he has been all but absent.

 

I am sick of whiny fans whining about injuries. Our starting pitching has sucked-- the Bard experiment was a complete abortion. Dice K stinks. Lester and Beckett have underperformed. Our best hitter AGon has been terrible. We are where we are because of execution not injuries.

 

Excellent assessment. Sound logic.

[redsoxbeatz]

Bard rediscovered himself. Could be big news.

[FredLynn]

Bard rediscovered himself. Could be big news.

 

He pitched one good inning. Thats what I read anyway.

[example1]

I like the idea of the Sox making a splash and getting a SP for the stretch run. Greinke or Hamels would be preferred, depending on asking price.

[BornToRun]

I like the idea of the Sox making a splash and getting a SP for the stretch run. Greinke or Hamels would be preferred' date=' depending on asking price.[/quote']

 

I'm starting to come around to the idea of Grienke. Anxiety issues or not, the kid can pitch. I'd like one of those 2 but I'd be perfectly fine with garza.

[Spitball]

Thank goodness Roy Oswalt didn't want to play in Boston. He gave up 9 runs tonight in less than 5 innings.

[FredLynn]

I like the idea of the Sox making a splash and getting a SP for the stretch run. Greinke or Hamels would be preferred' date=' depending on asking price.[/quote']

 

Is the goal to win a ring or to make the playoffs? Making the playoffs would be facilitated by getting a high quality SP, for sure. But at what cost? Do we realistically have the horses to make a run at a ring or not? If not, why surrender what it would take to get a rental like Hamels or Greinke? My vote is to keep what we have, become sellers, and accumulate our chips and spend them this winter. If we manage to make the playoffs with our current roster, great. If not, we have lost nothing.

[redsoxbeatz]

He pitched one good inning. Thats what I read anyway.

 

Good things come from small things.

[FredLynn]

Good things come from small things.

 

Did you hear how hard he was throwing? He needs 95+ IMO.

[example1]

Is the goal to win a ring or to make the playoffs? Making the playoffs would be facilitated by getting a high quality SP' date=' for sure. But at what cost? Do we realistically have the horses to make a run at a ring or not? If not, why surrender what it would take to get a rental like Hamels or Greinke? My vote is to keep what we have, become sellers, and accumulate our chips and spend them this winter. If we manage to make the playoffs with our current roster, great. If not, we have lost nothing.[/quote']

 

I am completely against the idea of assessing everything based on whether or not the team appears, by some abstract reasoning, currently capable of winning the World Series. Not 81 games into the season.

 

You asked if they have the horses to make a run at a ring or not. My whole point is that adding a guy like Hamels gives you a pretty significant 'horse' in the playoffs and down the stretch. That's the whole idea of addressing problems through player acquisition.

 

You simply can't keep assuming that the team is incapable of getting better. If you are smart enough to identify the problem (you are) then you know how you start to fix it. If the problem is starting pitching then you address it. You don't wait until the season starts over again next year... not with exactly half the season left. Not when there's a good chance the Sox won't be able to add anyone next year anyway.

 

 

This is all assuming that they can add him without moving a guy like Bogaerts or Barnes or Bradley for him. If other teams are willing to go that high then more power to them.

[a700hitter]

I like the idea of the Sox making a splash and getting a SP for the stretch run. Greinke or Hamels would be preferred' date=' depending on asking price.[/quote']Ordinarily, I love a big splash, but I don't think they should go down the road of a 2 month rental. As we enter the second half of the season, they would need to play .654 ball from this point on to get to the 95 wins that I think will be necessary to win the division. I don't see the point of making a big splash if our only hope is a 1 game wild card playoff game.

[example1]

Interesting logic. I don't totally disagree but a) if there is a one game playoff why wouldn't you want the best pitcher possible? Presumably you would want him for a game 5 or 7 in a regular series... And if they manage to win that one game series it would be crucial to have the best pitching staff possible behind the play-in starter. I see what you are saying, but the logic goes both ways: don't overspend due to the one game playoff format OR due to the one game format, you better put the best possible players on the field or a potential ticket to compete for the WS could be squandered.

 

This calculus will depend on two things and will likely be an important point for years to come. Factor 1: how good is the pitcher in question? And 2) what's the cost of acquisition? I assume there are a few pitchers that you would hands down want starting that game for you- historically Pedro, Schilling, Randy Johnson, etc, now Kershaw, Strausburg, Felix, etc and others where it doesn't make a big enough difference. Hamels might be in the second category, but it depends on asking price.

[a700hitter]

Interesting logic. I don't totally disagree but a) if there is a one game playoff why wouldn't you want the best pitcher possible? Presumably you would want him for a game 5 or 7 in a regular series... And if they manage to win that one game series it would be crucial to have the best pitching staff possible behind the play-in starter. I see what you are saying, but the logic goes both ways: don't overspend due to the one game playoff format OR due to the one game format, you better put the best possible players on the field or a potential ticket to compete for the WS could be squandered.

 

This calculus will depend on two things and will likely be an important point for years to come. Factor 1: how good is the pitcher in question? And 2) what's the cost of acquisition? I assume there are a few pitchers that you would hands down want starting that game for you- historically Pedro, Schilling, Randy Johnson, etc, now Kershaw, Strausburg, Felix, etc and others where it doesn't make a big enough difference. Hamels might be in the second category, but it depends on asking price.

You are 100 percent right. There is a convincing other side of the argument. I have always been predisposed to make these deals under the old format. That has always been my inclination, and I was willing to pay the price in prospects/cash. This new format makes me less inclined unless the player will help us compete for the division. There's no science involved here from me-- just a personal preference.

[example1]

I'm firmly supportive of holding onto their best prospects, but I also think that this team might be missing a certain character type and could certainly benefit from adding someone who is at the top of his game. They probably don't have the money for Hamels though.

[example1]

As a "for instance" would you be willing to part with Daniel Bard for Hamels? The Phillies could potentially move forward with the tandem of Bard and Papelbon if Bard is given the time to work out his issues. A few years of Bard for a few months of Hamels isn't a bad deal for Philly, given his makeup. That's the type of deal I could see the Sox making, were they the ones to have Hamels and look to get something for him at the end of the season. Others may disagree.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think Hamels is a realistic possibility at all, not even as a free agent this offseason. I don't think this ownership will be in any hurry to take on another $20 million a year contract.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Just get healthy. That's all this team needs to do to make the playoffs. Just get healthy.

 

They're easily good enough to win the 2nd WC. They may be good enough to win the AL East if Morales turns out to be something special, and Crawford returns to form.

[a700hitter]

As a "for instance" would you be willing to part with Daniel Bard for Hamels? The Phillies could potentially move forward with the tandem of Bard and Papelbon if Bard is given the time to work out his issues. A few years of Bard for a few months of Hamels isn't a bad deal for Philly' date=' given his makeup. That's the type of deal I could see the Sox making, were they the ones to have Hamels and look to get something for him at the end of the season. Others may disagree.[/quote']Sure, I would do that in a heart beat.

[a700hitter]

Just get healthy. That's all this team needs to do to make the playoffs. Just get healthy.

 

They're easily good enough to win the 2nd WC. They may be good enough to win the AL East if Morales turns out to be something special, and Crawford returns to form.

How many wins do you think it will take to win the ALE?

[SoxFanForsyth]

How many wins do you think it will take to win the ALE?

 

Probably 94-96. But if you're going to go on about how the Red Sox will have to play .XXX Winning % baseball to get to 94-96 wins, please save that for someone else. I can understand it if there is like 20-25 games left and you say "They have to go 18-7 to win 95 games" but with 80 games left, that's meaningless.

[a700hitter]

Probably 94-96. But if you're going to go on about how the Red Sox will have to play .XXX Winning % baseball to get to 94-96 wins' date=' please save that for someone else. I can understand it if there is like 20-25 games left and you say "They have to go 18-7 to win 95 games" but with 80 games left, that's meaningless.[/quote']Maybe you don't want to hear it because it makes you realize how much of a long shot it would be to win the division. They would have to play .654 ball for the entire second half of the season, and I haven't seen any signs from this team that it can play at that level for such a length of time. They just don't have the starting pitching to sustain that level of play. Without landing a major pitcher very soon, sustaining that level of play will just not be possible by merely getting healthy. They don't have what it takes.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Maybe you don't want to hear it because it makes you realize how much of a long shot it would be to win the division. They would have to play .654 ball for the entire second half of the season' date=' and I haven't seen any signs from this team that it can play at that level for such a length of time. They just don't have the starting pitching to sustain that level of play. Without landing a major pitcher very soon, sustaining that level of play will just not be possible by merely getting healthy. They don't have what it takes.[/quote']

 

No, I don't want to hear it because it means nothing. Seasons are full of streaks. The Sox are just coming off a streak where they went on a streak of 28-16 (.636) over 44 games. If they played .636 baseball from here out, they win 93 games.

 

And that was without Ellsbury, without Crawford, Pedroia was hitting .242 with a .605 OPS, Adrian Gonzalez hit .257 with a .725 OPS.

 

Yes. I think they can easily improve on that. Ellsbury and Crawford getting healthy would likely net us more than 2 wins difference over that streak, or over the remainder of the year. All they need to do is get healthy.

 

Regardless, even if they don't win the East, they are still very likely going to win the 2nd WC, at the very least.

[iortiz]

People still don't understand that our problem is our pitching. Offense will be oks. Offense has been oks overall in the first half. Pitching did not. No matter how many runs you make.... if the other team makes more, you lose.

 

It's about balance, this team is tremendous unbalanced.

[SemperFi Sox]

Would help if Gonzo got his head out of his ass.