6/10 v Nats

[jung]

Typical for Lester these days. This is your home park Jon. That was hit far enough to reach "your" wall and even if there was no wind that would likely have been out instead of in the park.

 

Can't believe he is whining about that wall scraper. It was a s***** pitch. In fact he left a fair number of pitches up in the zone. Had he been throwing that junk to a better hitting team I suspect he would have not gotten away with so much of it. Thought he did pretty well for him but whenever I hear myself saying something like that I want to punch myself in my own mouth.

[iortiz]

This team is much better than they showed this homestand. Definitely a brutal homestand, but they'll be fine.

 

This is a PS team, believe it or not. They don't look like it right now, but they are. They'll be fine.

 

Hopefully you're right. iMHO this is a .500 team or slightly above that. No more than that.

[SoxFanForsyth]

According to the Pythagorean Win Expectation, which is based on runs scored vs runs allowed, the Red Sox have been getting very unlucky this season.

 

Actual Wins/Pythagorean Wins

 

TB: 35/33

NYY: 34/34

BAL: 30/34

TOR: 31/34

BOS: 29/32

 

So the Rays and O's are getting pretty lucky, and the Jays and Sox are getting s*** on a bit thus far this year.

[Elktonnick]

According to the Pythagorean Win Expectation, which is based on runs scored vs runs allowed, the Red Sox have been getting very unlucky this season.

 

Actual Wins/Pythagorean Wins

 

TB: 35/33

NYY: 34/34

BAL: 30/34

TOR: 31/34

BOS: 29/32

 

So the Rays and O's are getting pretty lucky, and the Jays and Sox are getting s*** on a bit thus far this year.

 

Just goes to show you that the inherent margin of error in such calculations makes them irrelevant except for parlour games. There is another variable that this particular calculation doesn't take into account that is the umpiring. Just ask BV after today's game if you doubt their importance.

[Brennan]

This isn't a PS team.

 

 

 

It is definitely a POS team though.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Just goes to show you that the inherent margin of error in such calculations makes them irrelevant except for parlour games. There is another variable that this particular calculation doesn't take into account that is the umpiring. Just ask BV after today's game if you doubt their importance.

 

I've taken the formula back to all teams from last year and it's extremely accurate. Within 1-2 games of almost every team. It will straighten itself out, don't worry.

 

Sox will be fine. Put it in your sig if you'd like.

[Brennan]

Just goes to show you that the inherent margin of error in such calculations makes them irrelevant except for parlour games. There is another variable that this particular calculation doesn't take into account that is the umpiring. Just ask BV after today's game if you doubt their importance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stats can't pitch and hit either, you will always need players to do that.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Stats can't pitch and hit either' date=' you will always need players to do that.[/quote']

 

Yet the stats I used were based on Runs Scored and Runs Allowed.

 

You know, ignorance isn't a good reason to ignore statistics.

[Brennan]

Yet the stats I used were based on Runs Scored and Runs Allowed.

 

You know, ignorance isn't a good reason to ignore statistics.

 

 

 

No but apparently statistics are a good excuse to ignore real baseball.

[SoxFanForsyth]

No but apparently statistics are a good excuse to ignore real baseball.

 

Who is ignoring real baseball?? Dude you are actually clueless.

[jung]

I can not argue against the largest issue for the Sox being the pitching because you can see what happens if you have a team with terrific pitching and weak hitting....terrific pitching can overcome lapses in hitting. A team built around pitching has a much better chance to win than one built around hitting. However the Sox are not built around pitching. We see improvements in the SP from where it started the season especially as it relates to 1-3 in our rotation but they are not the equal of the teams that have really good pitching at the top of their rotations...Our guys just don't give us that sort of a weapon. So you can talk about improvements all the way up till you start to talk about relative pitching strengths and weaknesses and then the argument gets tougher to make.

 

In one of the recent posts where I discussed my concerns about this month, I expressed the view that this month was going to be challenging enough to make it difficult for the everyday subs to continue to produce beyond their expectations and that unfortunately this month came upon us before the injured regulars are ready to come back. Now Pedey seems incapable of playing up to his potential and I fear the only way to get the Pedey back that we need is to sit him down.

 

So to me one additional major factor driving my concerns for this month is that I think it will be to challenging for the subs to continue to be as effective as they have been. I posted earlier that looking at the schedules for the teams that matter this is a "rubber meets the road" kind of month and we are sort of up on the alignment rack. If they can actually get through this month with this squad and are still in it at month end, then I think they will be in it till the end. However if the Sox are not careful they could get blown out of this thing this month.

 

It is just to hard to make up ground this year once you fall behind.

[Bellhorn04]

I love the stats as much as anyone, but sometimes you can slice 'em and dice 'em all you want and it just doesn't matter. The bottom line is, we're having a f*** of a time winning games.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I can not argue against the largest issue for the Sox being the pitching because you can see what happens if you have a team with terrific pitching and weak hitting....terrific pitching can overcome lapses in hitting. A team built around pitching has a much better chance to win than one built around hitting. However the Sox are not built around pitching. We see improvements in the SP from where it started the season especially as it relates to 1-3 in our rotation but they are not the equal of the teams that have really good pitching at the top of their rotations...Our guys just don't give us that sort of a weapon. So you can talk about improvements all the way up till you start to talk about relative pitching strengths and weaknesses and then the argument gets tougher to make.

 

In one of the recent posts where I discussed my concerns about this month, I expressed the view that this month was going to be challenging enough to make it difficult for the everyday subs to continue to produce beyond their expectations and that unfortunately this month came upon us before the injured regulars are ready to come back. Now Pedey seems incapable of playing up to his potential and I fear the only way to get the Pedey back that we need is to sit him down.

 

So to me one additional major factor driving my concerns for this month is that I think it will be to challenging for the subs to continue to be as effective as they have been. I posted earlier that looking at the schedules for the teams that matter this is a "rubber meets the road" kind of month and we are sort of up on the alignment rack. If they can actually get through this month with this squad and are still in it at month end, then I think they will be in it till the end. However if the Sox are not careful they could get blown out of this thing this month.

 

It is just to hard to make up ground this year once you fall behind.

 

It just takes a couple strings of solid outings from the rotation and the Sox are right back in the thick of things.

 

Fortunately they go MIA CHC MIA over the next 9 games, so they should be able to take 6-7 of those. Should be able to pick up 2-3 games on the Yanks/Rays over the next 9 games.

[jacksonianmarch]

It just takes a couple strings of solid outings from the rotation and the Sox are right back in the thick of things.

 

Fortunately they go MIA CHC MIA over the next 9 games, so they should be able to take 6-7 of those. Should be able to pick up 2-3 games on the Yanks/Rays over the next 9 games.

 

Miami is a good team and you are getting Johnson and Buerhle to start the series. You should pound the Cubbies, but you are underestimating the fish

[Bellhorn04]

Miami is a good team and you are getting Johnson and Buerhle to start the series. You should pound the Cubbies' date=' but you are underestimating the fish[/quote']

 

That figures.

[redsoxbeatz]

Gonzalez: 0-4, 4 LOB. lol! Sucks do hard this year

[jung]

Ya' know I have been hearing about the 6 outta' 7 and the 7 outta' 8 that this team SHOULD take since the beginning of the season. When it inevitably does not happen we just push it out to the next bunch of teams and games. Reminds me of some quarterly sales forecast I have seen...same graph line....just pushed out a few more quarters. I just don't see it. However we sure as hell won't have long to wait to find out.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

We're still better than them.

[Station 13]

Gonzalez: 0-4' date=' 4 LOB. lol! Sucks do hard this year[/quote']

 

He's getting a free pass from the media.

[kapsis21]

ahh s***.. the season is getting out of our hands pretty quickly. should have swept the O's and could have easily taken 2 out of 3 if for some timely hitting. but BP cant hold it.. goes to show we still have a mediocre bullpen. Ace was so good last year in tie games.. dang it.. need a winning streak.. please

[jung]

And we actually only got some timely hitting in today's game kaps. Even with that we left guys stranded even today and of the three games we probably got more timely hitting today.

[redsoxrules]

Aceves is totally sucking at being closer

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

He's getting a free pass from the media.

 

And he deserves it. Yeah lets bash the guy that was a hitting machine in SD. He had a pretty good season here last year too.

[Brennan]

Who is ignoring real baseball?? Dude you are actually clueless.

 

 

Not clueless at all. But one can use stats to prove or disprove just about anything.

[Brennan]

We're still better than them.

 

 

 

Easy to say but based on what?

[a700hitter]

When Pedroia doesn't hit, this team doesn't win. It's as simple as that. They were hot. He got hurt missed some games and came back ice cold. Trace back the reversal of fortune to his injury. He has always been the catalyst. The difference is that when he was surrounded by better players we definitely won when Pedey hit-- often it was a blowout. If he didn't hit, we often had enough from the other guys to get by. Now, with this thin lineup, we definitely lose when Pedroia doesn't hit.

 

After a couple of good games, Gonzo has gone back to looking lost again. He did nothing Saturday or Sunday. His ABs were awful.

 

Why didn't Bobby V. pinch hit Aviles for Punto to start the 9th inning?

 

I was listening to a Boston Sports talks show yesterday and the hosts were in agreement that Aceves as closer has worked out better than anyone expected. Are they joking? We have to give up the delusion that he is a credible closer. He has an ERA over 5, and he is constantly losing or blowing games. I love him in the pen, but not in the closer's role.

[a700hitter]

1-5 on a home stand is brutal. I don't remember bad Red Sox teams doing that bad at home.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Miami is a good team and you are getting Johnson and Buerhle to start the series. You should pound the Cubbies' date=' but you are underestimating the fish[/quote']

 

Josh Johnson is not the same pitcher he used to be, lets be clear on that. He's got a 4.56 ERA this year. His velocity is down to 92.9 mph on his 4 seamer, and his K/9 is down by nearly a full strikeout.

 

And Buehrle hasn't had the most success in the world against the Sox (4.74 ERA vs BOS in past 2 seasons). Ortiz, McDonald, Shoppach, Podsednik, Pedroia, and Gonzalez all seem to hit him well in various sample sizes.

 

The Sox should take a win from 1 of those 2 guys, which puts them on track for, like I said, 6 or 7 wins.

[FredLynn]

And he deserves it. Yeah lets bash the guy that was a hitting machine in SD. He had a pretty good season here last year too.

 

Well thats just great to hear. I am sooooo happy for Gonzobum that he hit well in San Diego and hit a bit here last year too. Wonder how he would perform if his paychecks were dependent on his OPS. Bet he would contribute a bit more.

Checked the scores: winners include the Yankees, Rays, Orioles, and Jays. Loser Bums: Red Flops.

The team sucks. It has no intestinal fortitude and they are playing like they don't give a damn about it. We are not catching the Rays this year, and the Yankees are getting out of reach as well.

These losers deserve to be in last place for a long long time.

[SoxFanForsyth]

When Pedroia doesn't hit, this team doesn't win. It's as simple as that. They were hot. He got hurt missed some games and came back ice cold. Trace back the reversal of fortune to his injury. He has always been the catalyst. The difference is that when he was surrounded by better players we definitely won when Pedey hit-- often it was a blowout. If he didn't hit, we often had enough from the other guys to get by. Now, with this thin lineup, we definitely lose when Pedroia doesn't hit.

 

After a couple of good games, Gonzo has gone back to looking lost again. He did nothing Saturday or Sunday. His ABs were awful.

 

Why didn't Bobby V. pinch hit Aviles for Punto to start the 9th inning?

 

I was listening to a Boston Sports talks show yesterday and the hosts were in agreement that Aceves as closer has worked out better than anyone expected. Are they joking? We have to give up the delusion that he is a credible closer. He has an ERA over 5, and he is constantly losing or blowing games. I love him in the pen, but not in the closer's role.

 

Wow. Yeah. Aceves has done GREAT as a closer. His 6.19 ERA in Save Situations has been brilliant. What a bunch of idiots. Likely the Saturday morning show on CSNNE.