Bard to Rotation a Mistake?

[seabeachfred]

I'm delighted my intuition was correct--that Merloni had the same feeling.

 

Closers often get bombed when they are put into non-save situations. It's a 50% mental game. Managers should know better.

 

Since I think Bobby Valentine learns from his mistakes, unlike another former manager I know, I think from here on in during the rest of ST Bard will be starting and not relieving. Everyone connected to the Red Sox, whether in an official or unofficial capacity, want to see if Daniel Bard can become an effective starter for us and to put him in the game in relief is not the way to do it. He starts tomorrow's game and I think we will get a better read on the guy in that role. Needless to say, the one thing everyone on this board seems to agree with is that our pitching will determine how well we will do this season.

 

And what's with this Lannan fellow? He is not exactly a gazelle, he is having a poor Spring with the Nationals and they want to get rid of him. That doesn't sound like someone who is any better than some of our people we have right now.

[Bellhorn04]

I have no problem with what Valentine did with Bard. The plan was for Aceves and Bard to each throw 4 innings. In Bard's first 2 starts Aceves came in after him. Valentine did it the other way around this time to give Aceves the start. Bard knew this in advance and should have been prepared. The rain delay may have been the thing that messed him up. But he needs to be able to handle stuff like that.

[a700hitter]

Speaking only for myself Ted' date=' I would appreciate it very much if you did keep me informed on what you see when you're down in Fort Myers---especially the pitchers and whatever you can find out about Ryan Lavarnway. Since we have to bring Doub, Bowden and Miller up since they have no options remaining I can only hope that they do the job when called on. We cannot afford to come crawling out the gate as we did last season, but besides that, have yourself a helluva time down there. You've got me envious of you already.[/quote']Here are some quick impressions of today's game. My seat were behind home plate and I had a very good vantage point. Doubront's command is very erratic. His usual first inning woes carried over to the second inning today. He escaped the 2nd inning unscathed because of a DP strike out and an batters interference on the steal. He had some pop but his wildness was all over the place. He gave up 8 hits and at least 1 walk in his 4 2/3 innings. The command needs to improve.

 

Melancon's stuff was very underwhelming. He is not going to be a shut down reliever like Bard. If that's what any of you were hoping for, forget it. Bailey looked okay, but the late innings are going to be a big adventure this season.

[jung]

Well we have the remainder of ST to work it out. But we have gone from ST has not even started yet. they have time.....to....it is early in ST, "they still have time" while things have not looked much better. I can see it possibly getting better by the end of ST but a whole lot better?????????

 

Pitching looks pretty ragged. Doubront has impressed me but if i am not mistaken he has not put two consistent outings in a row together yet. Aceves has looked very good. So much so, that even I am beginning to wonder if the Sox are going to be forced to toss him in the rotation and push Bard back into the pen or put Bard and Aceves in the rotation together???????

 

I have no idea what people are seeing in Padilla unless it is relief that the guy has not thrown a fit yet. You simply cannot get that junk past major league hitters and unless he gets back the movement he used to have on his fastball he is going to be meat. I suspect that the lack of movement combined with getting to much plate with his pitches is going to kill him if and when he runs into an actual ML lineup.

 

I still think Doubront is the key. If he can legitimately make his way to the rotation then that gives the Sox the freedom to do some things. In fact Doubront has to make it as they have no options left on him.

 

Which brings us back to exactly where we were last year with maybe some improvement down at the bottom of the rotation but at the expense of the pen. It still boils down to having 1,2 and 3 in the rotation go the entire season without injury. Place your bets sports fans.

 

I am beginning to think that either Bard or Aceves are going to have to stay in the pen else we end up with the kind of pitching staff where in to many instances the starters take the Sox to the middle of the game or later only to have the pen come in and open the flood gates. My upper expectations for Padilla are that he ends up with a role to play there.

[jung]

Well we have the remainder of ST to work it out. But we have gone from ST has not even started yet. they have time.....to....it is early in ST, "they still have time" while things have not looked much better. I can see it possibly getting better by the end of ST but a whole lot better?????????

 

Pitching looks pretty ragged. Doubront has impressed me but if i am not mistaken he has not put two consistent outings in a row together yet. Aceves has looked very good. So much so, that even I am beginning to wonder if the Sox are going to be forced to toss him in the rotation and push Bard back into the pen or put Bard and Aceves in the rotation together???????

 

I have no idea what people are seeing in Padilla unless it is relief that the guy has not thrown a fit yet. You simply cannot get that junk past major league hitters and unless he gets back the movement he used to have on his fastball he is going to be meat. I suspect that the lack of movement combined with getting to much plate with his pitches is going to kill him if and when he runs into an actual ML lineup.

 

I still think Doubront is the key. If he can legitimately make his way to the rotation then that gives the Sox the freedom to do some things. In fact Doubront has to make it as they have no options left on him.

 

Which brings us back to exactly where we were last year with maybe some improvement down at the bottom of the rotation but at the expense of the pen. It still boils down to having 1,2 and 3 in the rotation go the entire season without injury. Place your bets sports fans.

 

I am beginning to think that either Bard or Aceves are going to have to stay in the pen else we end up with the kind of pitching staff where in to many instances the starters take the Sox to the middle of the game or later only to have the pen come in and open the flood gates. My upper expectations for Padilla are that he ends up with a role to play there.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Here are some quick impressions of today's game. My seat were behind home plate and I had a very good vantage point. Doubront's command is very erratic. His usual first inning woes carried over to the second inning today. He escaped the 2nd inning unscathed because of a DP strike out and an batters interference on the steal. He had some pop but his wildness was all over the place. He gave up 8 hits and at least 1 walk in his 4 2/3 innings. The command needs to improve.

 

Melancon's stuff was very underwhelming. He is not going to be a shut down reliever like Bard. If that's what any of you were hoping for, forget it. Bailey looked okay, but the late innings are going to be a big adventure this season.

 

I feel the same way about Melancon, and that's why I think that Aceves is going to be the 8th inning guy this year, with Melancon as the 7th inning guy.

 

Aceves actually is as much of a shut down pitcher as Bard is, or extremely close to it. There is no reason to put him in the 6/7 inning and let Melancon set up after seeing Melancon today.

 

I will say this - Andrew Miller looks very good from the stretch. It's much easier to repeat your delivery from the stretch than it is from the wind up, so he could end up being a nice piece to the bullpen if he can keep pumping 97 with a nasty hook.

 

Either way, even though Doubront's outing was not great today, I think he'll be used as the 5th starter, but at the same time, I think two things are going to happen.

 

1. As much as possible, with off days and rain outs, the Sox are going to try to skip the 5th start and go with a 4 man rotation on regular rest.

 

2. DiceK will return in mid June, so Doubront will only get around 7-8 starts, assuming they skip his start 2-3 times with off days.

 

So I don't think it's going to become a huge huge issue. And also, don't forget - we're going to have Rich Hill coming back off the DL in May (he's throwing in a game soon), and Hill is filthy against LHH.

 

All that to say this. I think Bobby V is going to stretch out the pitchers more, get them more innings and more pitches. That means getting the ball to the bullpen in the 7th or 8th innings. So, we have Aceves and Bailey for the 7th and 8th, and then I think we'll play the match up game with Miller/Hill facing LHP and then maybe Melancon to face RHH to get us through innings before that.

 

That's my take at least.

[jung]

I hate the automatic "pull the pitcher" approach to handling staffs. I would just be happy to see V not adopt that approach which seemed so much a part of Tito's handling of the staff.

 

Presuming V does not adopt the "auto-pull" it will be interesting to see what V does with pitchers that he has stretched past there tough spots. You have to presume that if he does that he will be confronted with pitchers coming into late innings having already worked through a couple of rough innings and then allowing a base runner right off the bat in that "stretch" inning. We have not had the chance to see much of how the Sox pitchers respond to that in recent years.

[a700hitter]

2. DiceK will return in mid June, so Doubront will only get around 7-8 starts, assuming they skip his start 2-3 times with off days.

 

I really don't see this happening. I think he will not be useful until September.

[redsoxfan3]

I really don't see this happening. I think he will not be useful until September.

 

I am not saying I am disagreeing with you here, but what makes you think that? Is it due to his past injury history? I have heard he will be able to pitch in the majors come June or July. I have heard from several people that he is on the fast track to coming back and that he is looking good. Hopefully at some point in the season he will be able to add depth to our rotation if anything. I also am hoping Hill comes back healthy and prove to be an asset to the pen.

[RedSoxNC84]

I am not saying I am disagreeing with you here' date=' but what makes you think that? Is it due to his past injury history? I have heard he will be able to pitch in the majors come June or July. I have heard from several people that he is on the fast track to coming back and that he is looking good. Hopefully at some point in the season he will be able to add depth to our rotation if anything. I also am hoping Hill comes back healthy and prove to be an asset to the pen.[/quote']

 

Recovering from Tommy John is a funny thing. I know almost everyone is saying he could come back by mid July, but why would you do that? You'd be rushing the healing process in my opinion, and if Dice-K were to have a return to his 08 form, it wouldn't be by being rushed back from TJS. So I'd have to agree with 700 on this one.

 

IF Doubront or another becomes a viable rotation option, then I don't want Matsuzaka to come back by July, he won't be ready by then, even if he IS physically ready.

 

Would it be nice for him to come back early and dominate? Of course. However I don't see the rotation as being the place for him, like Valentine said, I think Dice K belongs in the pen. I think he could be a dominant reliever if he is 100%.

[a700hitter]

I am not saying I am disagreeing with you here' date=' but what makes you think that? Is it due to his past injury history? I have heard he will be able to pitch in the majors come June or July. I have heard from several people that he is on the fast track to coming back and that he is looking good. Hopefully at some point in the season he will be able to add depth to our rotation if anything. I also am hoping Hill comes back healthy and prove to be an asset to the pen.[/quote']Past history of guys coming back from this surgery. If he is back by June, he will not be effective IMO. He'll still be building arm strength until late August, early September.

[jacksonianmarch]

TJS for relievers is typically a bit shorter than starters. For a starter, you dont see significant return until about 18 months. For relievers, you'll see the stuff back earlier, but it is the stamina and consistency that comes later

[User Name]

The problems is that the word "consistency" and the name "Daisuke" should never be together in a sentence unless the words "wild" or "frustrating" are part of said sentence.

[jung]

Looks to me like it will take another start for Bard to prove he can be the 4. I can see why V has not been willing to name him to the 4 spot. In two innings and a batter he already has three walks tonight. He gave up two in the second and one already in the third. Gave up 3 runs in the second. A little unlucky in that Sweeney took a roundabout route to a pop fly down the line. However Bard had already walked the first batter before that happened....an absolute no-no. He went on to walk the first batter in the third. He looks completely disjointed when he comes out for the next inning. Finally settled in by the 4th inning and he might just be a nervous wreck at this point early in games. Looked very solid in the fourth and fifth.

 

Can't be walkin' guys all over creation. I like his stuff. But Geez he is walkin' guys all over the place.

 

I think the reason that there is no indication from V on either Bard or anything else at this point is because the 4 spot is so up in the air. The Sox look like they have a bunch of guys that could be a 5 but Aceves might be the only guy that has looked anything like a 4 so far.

 

I can see Aceves as the 4, Doubront as the 5 with Bard back to the pen as the 8th inning set up man unless Bard can come into his next start and settle down earlier in the game. Bard has gone deep into this game so he will not be back out there for the next few days. I think that gives Bard one more start to show V enough or it will likely be off to the pen for him.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Looks to me like it will take another start for Bard to prove he can be the 4. I can see why V has not been willing to name him to the 4 spot. In two innings and a batter he already has three walks tonight. He gave up two in the second and one already in the third. Gave up 3 runs in the second. A little unlucky in that Sweeney took a roundabout route to a pop fly down the line. However Bard had already walked the first batter before that happened....an absolute no-no. He went on to walk the first batter in the third. He looks completely disjointed when he comes out for the next inning. Finally settled in by the 4th inning and he might just be a nervous wreck at this point early in games. Looked very solid in the fourth and fifth.

 

Can't be walkin' guys all over creation. I like his stuff. But Geez he is walkin' guys all over the place.

 

I think the reason that there is no indication from V on either Bard or anything else at this point is because the 4 spot is so up in the air. The Sox look like they have a bunch of guys that could be a 5 but Aceves might be the only guy that has looked anything like a 4 so far.

 

I can see Aceves as the 4, Doubront as the 5 with Bard back to the pen as the 8th inning set up man unless Bard can come into his next start and settle down earlier in the game. Bard has gone deep into this game so he will not be back out there for the next few days. I think that gives Bard one more start to show V enough or it will likely be off to the pen for him.

 

Like User Name said - You can't judge by results in Spring Training. Bard was working on some stuff other than just trying to get outs so that when he throws in the season, he's able to utilize all of his stuff to get the results.

 

And besides that, I'll take 6-7 IP, 3 ER from Bard all day, which is what he likely would have given, given the final 3 innings he pitched and where he was in the lineup.

[jung]

That said it is getting late for V not to have named Bard to the spot by now. I don't think he will get the 4 if he does not have a better outing next time out. V will have to settle on who is going to pitch where by the latest one week from today and it sounds like he will not make announcements until then.

 

that hurky-jerky motion early in innings is not working on other pitches. He is simply not settling in especially after a relatively normal bench sit between innings. However even though V has not been willing to name him to the 4 yet, he has got to give him one more outing to prove himself. As I said earlier he may just be nervous as heck. In my view all it will take is settling a little earlier in the next stint than he did tonight and he will get the spot I think. He can come out and have a weak 1st inning. He had a good 1st inning tonight but weak 1st innings don't bother me. That is not unexpected. But if he comes out and again starts early innings with walks, I just don't think he will get the spot and frankly I don't think he will deserve the spot. You just cannot walk the first batter in consecutive early innings and if Bard does that again in the next outing, I simply don't think V will give him the 4.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't think it matters how Bard does next outing. The guy is going to be the #4 starter. He threw 5 and gave up 3 today. That's good work for your 4 guy, and he wasn't even pitching for results.

 

It's almost a 100% certainty that Bard is the #4 man.

[jung]

The only problem with just giving it to Bard is that Aceves is outpitching him to this point. However even if Aceves has another good outing as long as Bard does in fact come out and settle earlier in his next stint than he did tonight I think he will get it. It is the inability to hit the plate that might be his undoing. Now he has given up walks in the relief stint (four) and in the starting stint (three in three innings, two to first batters in innings) and a Manager will not likely tolerate that if he has an alternative.

 

Nobody is talking about results. I don't give a darn about the runs scored at this point. I care about whether he can hit the plate with enough regularity as a starter.

[jung]

Looking at the guys that I have seen pitch that are intended for or vying for the 3 through the 5 in the rotation:

Buch has shown good location and movement and is throwing strikes...solidly the 3 as expected.

 

Bard has shown good location and movement but is missing the plate to much so far to have established himself as my 4. However he is one steady outing (no early walks in innings) from being the 4 at least for this team. If not I would send him to the 8th inning killing two birds with one stone as Melancon has not quite gotten it done so far. That would send Melancon to some sort of middle relief role.

 

Aceves has shown good location and movement and enough control to earn the 4 if I had to make a decision today. However I still prefer Aceves for the pen unless Bard cannot find the plate more than he has so far. In his interview, Bard said it is his mechanics early in games and he realizes he has to improve. He is right!

 

Doubront has shown good location and movement but has been to inconsistent to be a 4 but could be a 5 especially since the Sox have no options left on him and it does not appear that he would be effective from the pen.

 

Padilla has not had good location and has not had good movement. He has thrown strikes but is catching to much of the meat of the plate and I think will have difficulty with a real ML lineup if he ever sees one. My expectations for him are middle/long relief after somebody else gets the starter out of a jam and possible emergency starter.

 

The most revealing part of Bard's post-pitching interview tonight was that apparently "according to Bard" V came up to him before tonight's outing and asked him if he was "still up for this" meaning starting. That is telling as hell. I did not think Bard had done anything untoward enough to deserve that question from V but it is hard to ignore. V is clearly seeing something that is on his mind.

[seabeachfred]

I notice our bullpen didn't do the job today either. Albers is pure crap; he was decent for about half the season last year and then became a human pinata, something to what he was in Baltimore. He is not the guy I want in there with a two or three run lead late in the game. I think he needs to be cut pronto. As for Bowden, I feel the same way about him in relief that I do with Doubrant as a starter. Either s*** or get off the pot. Both have been hanging around for the past few years and neither has broken though. Out of options hell!!!!! If they don't have they don't have it. Either they show they can get the job done by the early going or screw them and take our chances they will not be claimed. chances are Bowden won't and Doubrant maybe. I've noticed over the years we DFA'd pitchers and they weren't claimed, were sent down to Pawtucket and then we had to see these bums again in September.

 

We need pitchers who can get people out, who won't walk the ballpark and if we don't have them now, then trade for them as soon as possible. Again, Doubrant has to show up this year or flush his ass down the detritus of Red Sox history and the same for Bowden.

[jung]

How I wish Doubront, Bowden and Albers were our only problems. In some cases I think we are stuck with some of these guys because we don't have the trade horsepower to get anybody worth a darn at this stage of the game.

 

I do think Doubront would be claimed off waivers and unfortunately I have not seen enough good around him to say that we would not miss his arm at least on the 2012 Sox.

 

I hope Miller's injury from tonight is not serious as he has not be terrible "YET"! Anyway, we might actually get something out of Miller this year. I have to admit that I am living on hope more than optimism at least beyond 1,2 and 3 in the rotation who seem pretty solid so far if they can stay healthy.

 

By the way....I am going to say that these guys know they have one stint left each to impress. Bard clearly left me with that impression in his post-stint presser tonight. I am going to say that both Bard and Doubront are going to have good enough outings in their next stints for Bard to claim the 4 and for Doubront to claim the 5, putting Aceves in the pen where he is needed the most I think. Hope the hell I am right.

[SCM33]

I notice our bullpen didn't do the job today either. Albers is pure crap; he was decent for about half the season last year and then became a human pinata, something to what he was in Baltimore. He is not the guy I want in there with a two or three run lead late in the game. I think he needs to be cut pronto. As for Bowden, I feel the same way about him in relief that I do with Doubrant as a starter. Either s*** or get off the pot. Both have been hanging around for the past few years and neither has broken though. Out of options hell!!!!! If they don't have they don't have it. Either they show they can get the job done by the early going or screw them and take our chances they will not be claimed. chances are Bowden won't and Doubrant maybe. I've noticed over the years we DFA'd pitchers and they weren't claimed, were sent down to Pawtucket and then we had to see these bums again in September.

 

We need pitchers who can get people out, who won't walk the ballpark and if we don't have them now, then trade for them as soon as possible. Again, Doubrant has to show up this year or flush his ass down the detritus of Red Sox history and the same for Bowden.

 

Bowden sucks. Not sure if he is out of options, but if he is....who cares. Hes a roster filler.

 

Albers is terrible too. Just cut them, those two serve no purpose other than taking up spots on the 40 man roster. Just get rid of them.

[a700hitter]

I don't think it matters how Bard does next outing. The guy is going to be the #4 starter. He threw 5 and gave up 3 today. That's good work for your 4 guy, and he wasn't even pitching for results.

 

It's almost a 100% certainty that Bard is the #4 man.

I have felt all along that he will be the #4 guy, and I have been hopeful that he could perform better than average. However, on the heels of the last outing, I got concerned in the 2nd inning that he was in the midst of a meltdown. He gathered himself after the walk in the 3rd inning and threw consistent strikes.

[a700hitter]

Bowden sucks. Not sure if he is out of options, but if he is....who cares. Hes a roster filler.

 

Albers is terrible too. Just cut them, those two serve no purpose other than taking up spots on the 40 man roster. Just get rid of them.

I think you might be right about both of these guys. I think Albers will get cut if he doesn't turn things around in the next couple of outings.

[SCM33]

I have felt all along that he will be the #4 guy' date=' and I have been hopeful that he could perform better than average. However, on the heels of the last outing, I got concerned in the 2nd inning that he was in the midst of a meltdown. He gathered himself after the walk in the 3rd inning and threw consistent strikes.[/quote']

 

The problem is, that a meltdown while in the bullpen.....results in a bad batter or two and you usually have other guys warm/getting warm to bail you out.

 

A meltdown in the second inning is a sign for the manager to get the long guy ready because you are bracing for a blowout.

[RedSoxNC84]

Bowden sucks. Not sure if he is out of options, but if he is....who cares. Hes a roster filler.

 

Albers is terrible too. Just cut them, those two serve no purpose other than taking up spots on the 40 man roster. Just get rid of them.

 

Bowden certainly looks to be a better option for the bullpen than some of the other guys we have. I don't see why everyone thinks he's that terrible. From what we've seen of him in the past, yeah.. I honestly think he's looking pretty decent now.

[jung]

Should read V's comments after tonight's Bard outing. "I cannot take his walks". That is the issue.

 

V goes on to say that he would like to blame it on trying out the "third pitch", the change up but he "can't". "Bard only threw one of them tonight and he threw it for a strike."

 

V appears willing to let Bard off on the notion that it is just early but he needs Bard to give him an outing here that allows V to identify a progression toward a more attractive ball:strike ratio and a walks profile that is not a tried and true loser!

 

V is actually begging Bard to bail him out of this situation and just have an outing where he is not giving up walks to the first batter in innings.

 

To ask V to just accept this would be like asking our esteemed Patriot's coach to accept a negative turnover ratio every game, to ask a golfer to win when he can't find the fairway with drives....to ask a tennis player to win without being able to get any first serves to fall in. You just cannot win giving up walks to the first batters in innings, especially consecutive innings and V is not interested in being made to look like an idiot when Aceves is out-pitching Bard to such a degree. However I am convinced that V wants Bard to get the job and wants Aceves in the pen.

 

So if Bard can lift his ball:strike ratio which is miserable right now and get through innings without giving up so many walks, I believe the job is his. However if he does not do that, this next outing, I just don't think V will give him the job because he does have an alternative.

 

Just because we think Bard to the rotation is the best thing for the Sox and for Bard don't think we should expect V to just break the most basic principle in baseball just to satisfy us. Bard has got to earn this job cause there is simply no rational to giving a rotation job to a guy that has never started anywhere when he is being out-pitched by somebody else. That is a dilemma that Bard has got to resolve for V and if he does not, I don't expect V to reward him with a starting role.

[SCM33]

Bowden certainly looks to be a better option for the bullpen than some of the other guys we have. I don't see why everyone thinks he's that terrible. From what we've seen of him in the past' date=' yeah.. I honestly think he's looking pretty decent now.[/quote']

 

Major League numbers:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bowdemi01.shtml

 

He gets by in the minors with his freak show mechanics.

 

If you think he is an option for the 2012 bullpen, we're screwed.

[a700hitter]

Bobby V's comments about Bard after the game and hi question to Bard prior to the game show me that he is very concerned about the prospect of Bard being a starter.

[jung]

I want Bard to make it cause while Aceves has had very good movement and location, Bard has better stuff. In reality Bard's problem is the same problem he had last year only exacerbated by numbers of innings. His mechanics early in innings and now early in games can be abominable. I called his motion hurky-jerky earlier tonight because that is what it was at times. His body is flailing all over the place. His front leg gets way out ahead and he cannot catch up to it. God only knows what the hell it would look like if he was not pitching from the stretch all the time.

 

To hie credit he knows that is the genesis of his control problems. He simply cannot seem to get his mechanics straight early and the ball ends up going all over the place. Tonight Bard said that he was encouraged by the fact the he felt good late in the stint (no fatigue) and he felt like if he could just get his mechanics smoothed out early in games he could carry it through to later innings. I would love to see that happen. But he has to make it happen. I don't understand why they have not been able to help this kid although I am sure that is why he always pitches from the stretch. It is a much more compact motion with fewer moving parts. I am beginning to wonder if pitching with a full wind up would give him sort of a kick start into the motion. However it must be worse for him or he would already be doing that.