What if we went all-out on D? (warning: Dojji is thinking, read at own risk)

[Dojji]

With our outfield in question for a while offensively, I'm curious what would happen if Valentine decided to take a chance and go full-bore after defensive upgrades.

 

Three spots I can think of where you could sacrifice O for D and get quite a boost to your run prevention if that's the way you decide to go.

 

First obviously, is shortstop. Putting Jose Iglesias at short could pay off even if he doesn't hit much, if he makes the lives of his pitchers a few runs easier in any given game. If you believe that defense can have a large impact on the game and can provide as many WAR or more as any bat we're likely to get at short, which is a very reasonable assumption. then it's time to go with Iglesias.

 

The second, less obvious one is centerfield. I got nothing against Ellsbury, but the most lavish your praise can get for his defense in center is "Yeah, he good enough." He's not a liability as a defensive centerfielder, In fact he's an outright competent defensive centerfielder. What he isn't, is a great defensive centerfielder.

 

Enter Che-Hsuan Lin. Lin won't hit for much. Offensively he's pretty much a slap hitter. But as a defensive centerfielder I've never seen a guy who can cover ground like this guy can, and I'm including Coco Crisp in that. That and he has a plus arm which we haven't had in our outfields in forever. His speed is a match for Jacoby's and he takes far better reads on the ball off the bat. He's a defensive superstar, and if he could hit .250 and get on base OK, with his speed, he's someone's starting centerfielder. Why not ours? i'm sure the indispensable asset that is Ryan Sweeney can take a backseat to a guy who actually does something at an elite level. And I think the experiment would easily be worth sitting Cody Ross for as well.

 

If we need to prevent some runs this year because the staff is questionable, would starting Lin at centerfield and moving Ellsbury to right really be a terrible move? Crawford in left, Lin in center, Ells in right, and you have the smallest outfield gaps in major league baseball. Good luck getting anything but an absolutely blistered liner down on the outfield grass. And if you combine that with Iglesias and Pedroia at short and second respectively, and that starts to be a potential league leading defense.

 

Finally? Catcher. But here we have a problem. Shoppach is just a grass-is-greener guy. As a defensive catcher all he has going for him is better receiving hands. Much, much, much better receiving hands mind, but still, it's his only definite asset over Salty. This is a situation where the guy really needs to hit at least a little before you can let him play his glove in the field. Salty is a bigger upgrade over Shoppach offensively than Shoppach is over Salty defensively.

 

If you want to go D here you really need a catch and throw guy. A real one, not just a guy who is considered a defensive catcher because he's not an offensive catcher and you don't want to default to calling your GM an outright idiot. Until then I guess it's a question of who you trust better to improve. At this point, at least in my mind, it's Salty. Neither one is really going to complete the picture all that well as a run prevention unit though, which seems to be a thing the Sox FO doesn't obsess over when it comes to their catchers anyway.

 

As for a lineup?

 

Ellsbury, RF

Pedroia, 2B

Gonzalez, 1B

Youkilis, 3B

Ortiz, DH

Salty*, C

Crawford, LF

Lin, CF

Iglesias, SS

 

Thoughts?

 

*Yeah, Salty 6th is a little high in the order for him but you need something between Ortiz and Crawford as both have large platoon weakinesses, and I'm deliberately risking 2 poor offensive performers to max the D, so some chances need to be taken with the lineup.

 

And actually, if Lin and Iglesias can make any contact at all, that bottom of the lineup might play up a bit. It isn't short on speed, and if Lin and Iglesias can make some situtaional contact, it might allow Valentine to play his "real baseball" down there where runs might not otherwise be created.

[mvp 78]

Lin would hit .180. No thanks.

 

Moving Ells' noodle arm to RF would be a horrible idea.

[Dojji]

Ellsbury's arm isn't THAT bad, and it's not like we've had a really strong arm in RF since maybe Brunansky.

 

You can get more outs by shrinking the gaps than you can by having a great arm over a weak one.

 

As for Lin -- that's possible. I'm not going to dispute that Lin has a weak bat. He's actually a highly disciplined hitter though, so I wouldn't be as sure of that as you are behaving.

[Bellhorn04]

Ellsbury's 2011 UZR of 15.6 was the best of any centre fielder in the majors. He's only had one season, 2009, with a UZR that wasn't very good.

[Spudboy]

I have only seen Lin play twice (on TV). So I have a small sample size. BUT..... no way in hell is he an upgrade either defensively (your assessment) or at the plate over Ellsbury.

 

I like the Iglesias idea but think he will start the season in Pawtucket and migrate north by mid-season if his plate performance improves or if one of the journeymen SS flounders or is injured.

[Spudboy]

f*** UZR. I will remain defiant about this metric until someone demonstrates that it is anything more than a subjective based measure of defensive worth.

 

No offense intended Bellhorn.

[Bellhorn04]

f*** UZR. I will remain defiant about this metric until someone demonstrates that it is anything more than a subjective based measure of defensive worth.

 

No offense intended Bellhorn.

 

None taken. And I agree that it's subjective. Of course it can be argued that all defensive measures are subjective, including the scoring of errors.

 

How about this-Ellsbury won the Gold Glove last year and had a fielding percentage of 1.000. I think he's covered for his 2011 fielding, old-school or new-school.

[SoxSport]

Considering they were tops in hitting last year, and in the middle of the pack in pitching, it would appear that pitching and defense would be a priority this year. That's a strong argument for Iglesias. It makes sense they should sacrifice a little in hitting at SS for a lot of defense. That's not where their hitting came from last year, anyways.

 

Watching Papi get around on a left hander last night for a dinger, you have to be a fan. This guy seems to have turned it around. Was it just weight loss/conditioning? Or the wrist getting stronger? Or miracle juice? Who knows. But he's hitting again.

[SoxSport]

With our outfield in question for a while offensively, I'm curious what would happen if Valentine decided to take a chance and go full-bore after defensive upgrades.

 

Three spots I can think of where you could sacrifice O for D and get quite a boost to your run prevention if that's the way you decide to go.

 

First obviously, is shortstop. Putting Jose Iglesias at short could pay off even if he doesn't hit much, if he makes the lives of his pitchers a few runs easier in any given game. If you believe that defense can have a large impact on the game and can provide as many WAR or more as any bat we're likely to get at short, which is a very reasonable assumption. then it's time to go with Iglesias.

 

The second, less obvious one is centerfield. I got nothing against Ellsbury, but the most lavish your praise can get for his defense in center is "Yeah, he good enough." He's not a liability as a defensive centerfielder, In fact he's an outright competent defensive centerfielder. What he isn't, is a great defensive centerfielder.

 

Enter Che-Hsuan Lin. Lin won't hit for much. Offensively he's pretty much a slap hitter. But as a defensive centerfielder I've never seen a guy who can cover ground like this guy can, and I'm including Coco Crisp in that. That and he has a plus arm which we haven't had in our outfields in forever. His speed is a match for Jacoby's and he takes far better reads on the ball off the bat. He's a defensive superstar, and if he could hit .250 and get on base OK, with his speed, he's someone's starting centerfielder. Why not ours? i'm sure the indispensable asset that is Ryan Sweeney can take a backseat to a guy who actually does something at an elite level. And I think the experiment would easily be worth sitting Cody Ross for as well.

 

If we need to prevent some runs this year because the staff is questionable, would starting Lin at centerfield and moving Ellsbury to right really be a terrible move? Crawford in left, Lin in center, Ells in right, and you have the smallest outfield gaps in major league baseball. Good luck getting anything but an absolutely blistered liner down on the outfield grass. And if you combine that with Iglesias and Pedroia at short and second respectively, and that starts to be a potential league leading defense.

 

Finally? Catcher. But here we have a problem. Shoppach is just a grass-is-greener guy. As a defensive catcher all he has going for him is better receiving hands. Much, much, much better receiving hands mind, but still, it's his only definite asset over Salty. This is a situation where the guy really needs to hit at least a little before you can let him play his glove in the field. Salty is a bigger upgrade over Shoppach offensively than Shoppach is over Salty defensively.

 

If you want to go D here you really need a catch and throw guy. A real one, not just a guy who is considered a defensive catcher because he's not an offensive catcher and you don't want to default to calling your GM an outright idiot. Until then I guess it's a question of who you trust better to improve. At this point, at least in my mind, it's Salty. Neither one is really going to complete the picture all that well as a run prevention unit though, which seems to be a thing the Sox FO doesn't obsess over when it comes to their catchers anyway.

 

As for a lineup?

 

Ellsbury, RF

Pedroia, 2B

Gonzalez, 1B

Youkilis, 3B

Ortiz, DH

Salty*, C

Crawford, LF

Lin, CF

Iglesias, SS

 

Thoughts?

 

*Yeah, Salty 6th is a little high in the order for him but you need something between Ortiz and Crawford as both have large platoon weakinesses, and I'm deliberately risking 2 poor offensive performers to max the D, so some chances need to be taken with the lineup.

 

And actually, if Lin and Iglesias can make any contact at all, that bottom of the lineup might play up a bit. It isn't short on speed, and if Lin and Iglesias can make some situtaional contact, it might allow Valentine to play his "real baseball" down there where runs might not otherwise be created.

 

 

Bobby V should read this post, because it's right on the money. Certainly a solid argument for Iglesias. Lin would be a bit of a stretch--the Red Sox are stuck in an offensive mentality, which may be why they've gone astray the last few years. Run prevention has not been a priority. In the pitching, the catching and the defense on the field.

 

It's disconcerting you don't hear these kind of arguments in the media--which is mainly offense-minded as well. All this emphasis on Iglesias hitting, for example--way overdone. The kid burns up the lower leagues, then has a partial off year hitting in Pawtucket--and he can't hit? I don't know--he's hitting so far in ST. Anybody calculate how many runs he would save playing SS this year?

[Dojji]

Lin is only a stretch because CF is already competently handled. He would *still* upgrade center defensively, and Jacoby would be a far better right fielder than any of our current options.

 

That whole question in my mind centers around whether you'd rather see Cody Ross butcher RF defensively for 27 outs or Lin struggle offensively for about 4 a night. On the theory that Lin has the speed to beat out enough dinky-dunk hits to bat at about the same level he did in AAA (where he got more than a little unlucky) I'd trust him to be a slap and run guy who could make some contact and test the defense -- the kind of guy V likes to have in the bottom of his batting orders.

 

And if we did have Lin, Ellsbury, and Crawford, that is one heck of a fast outfield with 3 plus to plus-plus runners in it. I wasn't joking about how small the outfield gaps would be. Combine that with useful speed from Pedroia and Iglesias. and I can't remember the Sox ever having a faster baseball team.

[Bellhorn04]

In 2007 the Red Sox had the dream outfield, though we only saw it in the late innings in the playoffs. Ellsbury in left, Crisp in centre, Drew in right. Now that was an outfield.

[Dojji]

Bobby V should read this post, because it's right on the money. Certainly a solid argument for Iglesias. Lin would be a bit of a stretch--the Red Sox are stuck in an offensive mentality, which may be why they've gone astray the last few years. Run prevention has not been a priority. In the pitching, the catching and the defense on the field.

 

It's disconcerting you don't hear these kind of arguments in the media--which is mainly offense-minded as well. All this emphasis on Iglesias hitting, for example--way overdone. The kid burns up the lower leagues, then has a partial off year hitting in Pawtucket--and he can't hit? I don't know--he's hitting so far in ST. Anybody calculate how many runs he would save playing SS this year?

 

Iglesias is a stud. This guy would be a 2-3 win player defensively, maybe more. He's not an all-time defender, but he's close. And he's got enough offensive chops that with a few years to really work on it, he should get it down, like Vizquel and Ozzie Smith did. But you gotta stay patient with him and not go to Aviles just because he's hitting .210 at one point and making us all fret about black holes in the lineup

 

That's going to be hard, because it's not the way we're used to thinking about any position on the diamond anymore. But with the steroid era over and offense on the decline at the moment, we're going to have to start if we don't want to be left behind. We can't tolerate the failures in pitching that we used to be able to bury with offense -- no one can. So we have to start thinking about defense a lot more than we used to.

[Emmz]

No thanks on Lin. Iglesias is fine, but everyone was thinking that, really.

[Dojji]

No thanks on Lin.

 

There's these newfangled things called "reasons." They're all the rage for promoting discussions because they actually allow someone to understand why you hold a given opinion.

[Emmz]

Could it be because he hasn't proven crap, and everyone else has pretty much said it all? Just a thought, stop being an annoying ******* when I post in baseball threads, iite?

[Emmz]

I'd also like to see you substantiate the claim Lin's an upgrade over Ellsbury defensively. Not that his offense is going to win him a spot anyways.

 

This game isnt about run prevention or run support. Its about the combination of both, known as run differential. Whoever can provide the best combo at their position by WAR is who gets the job. Lin doesnt have anything to go off of.

[Dojji]

I'd also like to see you substantiate the claim Lin's an upgrade over Ellsbury defensively. Not that his offense is going to win him a spot anyways.

 

This game isnt about run prevention or run support. Its about the combination of both, known as run differential. Whoever can provide the best combo at their position by WAR is who gets the job. Lin doesnt have anything to go off of.

 

Pretty sure that means you've never really seen Che-Hsuan Lin in action. Even in this world of numbers, some things have to be seen to be believed.

 

And you're right. It's about a combination of run support and run prevention. Where we differ is that I feel we're already as far as we need to be on offense, and our efforts will do the most good if we work on improving the defense.

 

Which is why I think we can stand a light bat and great glove in CF, and Ells in right, better than we can stand a pretty good bat and dismal glove like Ross, or a mediocre-at-everything career backup like Sweeney. With the offense the rest of the lineup can provide, one or two purely defensive players can be sustained without killing that run differential, and doing so should increase out chance to win over more offense-first options.

[mvp 78]

Highest number of put outs year last year: 339. That's 2 a game. Is it worth it trading a major league bat for someone who isn't tearing it up in the minors?

[Dojji]

Just to illustrate the point:

 

In 2007 Coco Crisp produced 2.6 wins above replacement through just his defense, disregarding his bat which was pretty average. Ross and Sweeney have never produced that many wins above replacement on either side of the ball -- offensively or defensively.

 

In fact if Lin could replicate that season, which he has the talent to do, and then hit at replacement level, he's a better option than either of those two. This is not the Padres. We have the offense to avoid diminishing returns on dWAR. It makes more sense than you'd think.

[Dojji]

Highest number of put outs year last year: 339. That's 2 a game. Is it worth it trading a major league bat for someone who isn't tearing it up in the minors?

 

That's actually pretty damn close to 3 a game. That 339 putouts was in about 120 games. That's not just good, it's hella good. His range factor (I know, I know) in AAA was higher than Crisp's in MLB in 07 which was his career year.

 

He "tore it up" in the minors, defensively at any rate.

[ORS]

Pretty sure that means you've never really seen Che-Hsuan Lin in action. Even in this world of numbers, some things have to be seen to be believed.

 

And you're right. It's about a combination of run support and run prevention. Where we differ is that I feel we're already as far as we need to be on offense, and our efforts will do the most good if we work on improving the defense.

 

Which is why I think we can stand a light bat and great glove in CF, and Ells in right, better than we can stand a pretty good bat and dismal glove like Ross, or a mediocre-at-everything career backup like Sweeney. With the offense the rest of the lineup can provide, one or two purely defensive players can be sustained without killing that run differential, and doing so should increase out chance to win over more offense-first options.

Assuming a net zero impact in CF, which I don't necessarily think should be automatically conceded because Ellsbury is quite good out there, the question becomes is the run differential between Ellsbury vs Ross in RF greater than the run differential between Ross vs Lin at the plate? I don't think it is. I think Ross is taylor made to be a good offensive contributor in Fenway, and I think Lin doesn't stick as a big leaguer because of how weak he will be offensively.

[Emmz]

Aww, sorry you can't prove your case.

 

Lin can't hit at all, this effects the players who hit around him as well. Ross is a guy who could probably put up an .800 OPS in the AL East.

 

Also, Ross' career UZR is not really terrible. It's negative, but not to the point where he should be labeled a butcher. If Lin ever shows he can hit better than his weight, sure, go for it. Best case scenario is it's about a wash in overall WAR. Most likely scenario, Lin is a bag of suck that kills rallies and generally f***s up the production of his fellow players.

 

No thanks.

[Dojji]

Assuming a net zero impact in CF' date=' which I don't necessarily think should be automatically conceded because Ellsbury is quite good out there, the question becomes is the run differential between Ellsbury vs Ross in RF greater than the run differential between Ross vs Lin at the plate? I don't think it is. I think Ross is taylor made to be a good offensive contributor in Fenway, and I think Lin doesn't stick as a big leaguer because of how weak he will be offensively.[/quote']

Ross is not exactly Vlad Guerrero in his prime, or even J. D. Drew.

 

You're trying to hold a 105 OPS+ hitter up purely on his offensive value. There's plenty of room for a sufficient defensive upgrade to balance that out.

[ORS]

I'm not sure that's the right question. Because you also have to bear in mind the defensive upgrade in right over lugging Ross out there.

 

Even if Lin is equal to Ellsbury, you're still upgrading one outfield position defensively by a large enough margin that Ross -- who really is an OK hitter but not exactly Vlad Guerrero in his prime -- is unlikely to supply a similar value offensively in a lineup already crowded with strong hitters.

Read it again. I'm talking about RF. These discussions are more worthwhile when you actually read what the other person is saying rather than prattle on with your assumptions.

 

The strength of the rest of the lineup has no bearing on Ross's offensive value. His value is what it is. There are no diminishing returns when considering run differential.

[Dojji]

Aww, sorry you can't prove your case.

 

Lin can't hit at all, this effects the players who hit around him as well. Ross is a guy who could probably put up an .800 OPS in the AL East.

 

Also, Ross' career UZR is not really terrible. It's negative, but not to the point where he should be labeled a butcher. If Lin ever shows he can hit better than his weight, sure, go for it. Best case scenario is it's about a wash in overall WAR. Most likely scenario, Lin is a bag of suck that kills rallies and generally f***s up the production of his fellow players.

 

No thanks.

 

Fenway's right field is a bit unique. I'd take the more athletic player patrolling that outfield over a bat that's just barely above average.

 

A better argument is what happens when and if Kalish gets healthy.

[Dojji]

Read it again. I'm talking about RF. These discussions are more worthwhile when you actually read what the other person is saying rather than prattle on with your assumptions.

 

The strength of the rest of the lineup has no bearing on Ross's offensive value. His value is what it is. There are no diminishing returns when considering run differential.

 

Yeah, duly noticed and fixed, thanks.

 

And ross's offensive value isn't much. If Lin can hit at replacement level, or somewhere close, it really isn't that unreasonable to think he can pull his weight on D.

 

Oh, and yes there is diminishing returns on run differential -- it comes when you ignore either part of the equation in favor of the other.. That's why having a differential at all is important. I can't believe you'd try to tell me otherwise.

[ORS]

Ross is not exactly Vlad Guerrero in his prime, or even J. D. Drew.

 

You're trying to hold a 105 OPS+ hitter up purely on his offensive value. There's plenty of room for a sufficient defensive upgrade to balance that out.

If there's plenty of room, then show me something other than your opinion. What do you project for Lin offensively? For Ross? How much value do you think they gain in RF with Ellsbury's defense?

[ORS]

Yeah, duly noticed and fixed, thanks.

 

And ross's offensive value isn't much. Oh, and yes there is diminishing returns on run differential -- on both sides of the spectrum. That's why having a differential at all is important. I can't believe you'd try to tell me otherwise.

 

Explain to me the diminishing returns of offensive value on run differential.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I am 110% all in with Iglesias, no question about it.

 

I'm 110% all out with Lin in CF. If (big if) we were going to move him to the bigs, I would put him in RF, where his defense is probably even more needed considering the angles, and his arm can be utilized. Having him in CF and moving Ells, who has gotten used to the nooks and crannys out in CF, to RF seems silly.

 

Either way, I like the line up as-is, with Iglesias as the 9 hole hitter. And the only reason I'm good w Iggy at SS is because I don't think Aviles is going to play well.

 

Aviles hit .229/.263/.338/.601 vs RHP last year. The reason his numbers were even close to decent was because when he got to Boston, he was played almost exclusively against LHP (.924 OPS vs LHP last year).

 

Players who can't hit RHP any better than that do not play everyday because of the prominence of RHP.

 

We've got Aviles, who has never played more than 110 games in a season, and we have Youkilis, who has averaged 111 games over the past 2 seasons as our starters.

 

The best plan of attack would be to have Iglesias as your starting SS and Aviles as your utility guy who covers for guys like Youkilis.

 

Between Iglesias, Youk, Pedroia's 3-5 days off, and occasional outfield work, Aviles will get around 60-70 games in, probably mainly against LHP, which is where he needs to be and where he can contribute the most to this team.

[Dojji]

Explain to me the diminishing returns of offensive value on run differential.

 

Wait, what? Oh, you're bounding off into some theoretical thing I'm not interested in following you into just because I happened to choose to word my statement in an unusual way. You have a habit of doing that. Mildly annoying, especially when I'm struggling to articulate a point and you're tackling me strictly on my terminology.

 

The point I was making (or trying to make) is that while it is certainly possible to prevent runs but still lose a lot because your bats suck, which would certainly be diminishing returns, we're nowhere NEAR that point right now, even with Lin in center.