Red Sox 2012 fearless prediction thread

[Dojji]

Based on how Beckett pitched and since he is already talking about injury' date=' I would put "a bad day" at the bottom of the list of possibilities. Still possibly but less likely than injury or continued issues with his conversion from a fireballer to a pitcher.[/quote']

 

I'd list that in the exact opposite order. I want at least 2 bad starts in a row before we start talking about possibilities more sinister than a date with the mediocricy fairy.

[SoxSport]

If a guy's velocity is way down, it usually means he has a physical problem.

[User Name]

SoxSport will talk about the "Media", how this team can't "manage a bullpen", "Pitch count limits not being any good" and will make other assertions about the team that are proven wrong yet he'll keep repeating them over 9,000 times.

[VA Sox Fan]

SoxSport will talk about the "Media"' date=' how this team can't "manage a bullpen", "Pitch count limits not being any good" and will make other assertions about the team that are proven wrong yet he'll keep repeating them over 9,000 times.[/quote']

 

So true.

[ORS]

SoxSport will talk about the "Media"' date=' how this team can't "manage a bullpen", "Pitch count limits not being any good" and will make other assertions about the team that are proven wrong yet he'll keep repeating them over 9,000 times.[/quote']

This place is inhabited by about a dozen or so people that have a pet issue, or two, that they repeat ad nauseum whenever they feel events provide an opportunity, even if if takes a massive mental leap to arrive at such a conclusion. These types cannot be dissuaded from this, no matter how much events disprove, or at least make seem very unlikely, these conclusions. It is what it is.

[FredLynn]

It's an even year. He has sucked in every even year of his career

 

2004- Missed 6 starts due to injury. Put up good numbers in his limited duty

2006- 200+IP, but sucked balls, 5+ERA, 36HR allowed

2008- Missed 5 starts due to injury, ERA was over 4

2010- Missed 11 starts, ERA over 5.7 with a WHIP over 1.5

 

It almost seems like he is durable and effective in the odd years to a point that he overdoes what his body can handle then breaks down the following yr.

 

Hard to deny these facts. Beckett has been grossly inconsistent during his stay here. As you have shown, every other year he is not good at all. This is the even year and if history is to repeat itself as it so often does, he will be above his average ERA with the Sox of about 4.03.

Also, I remember watching him a few years ago in the playoffs against the Rays when his velocity was upper 80s to 90. He also denied being hurt then, as he is denying it now. I am willing to give him another start or two before I say that he is lying for sure about being hurt. Its all very suspicious right now.

[User Name]

Hard to deny these facts. Beckett has been grossly inconsistent during his stay here. As you have shown, every other year he is not good at all. This is the even year and if history is to repeat itself as it so often does, he will be above his average ERA with the Sox of about 4.03.

Also, I remember watching him a few years ago in the playoffs against the Rays when his velocity was upper 80s to 90. He also denied being hurt then, as he is denying it now. I am willing to give him another start or two before I say that he is lying for sure about being hurt. Its all very suspicious right now.

 

This place is inhabited by about a dozen or so people that have a pet issue' date=' or two, that they repeat ad nauseum whenever they feel events provide an opportunity, even if if takes a massive mental leap to arrive at such a conclusion. These types cannot be dissuaded from this, no matter how much events disprove, or at least make seem very unlikely, these conclusions. It is what it is.[/quote']

 

[ORS]

 

Perfect timing, eh?

[FredLynn]

 

:lol:

[Palodios]

This place is inhabited by about a dozen or so people that have a pet issue' date=' or two, that they repeat ad nauseum whenever they feel events provide an opportunity, even if if takes a massive mental leap to arrive at such a conclusion. These types cannot be dissuaded from this, no matter how much events disprove, or at least make seem very unlikely, these conclusions. It is what it is.[/quote']

 

Pretty much every poster here does that. I certainly know that I'm one of them

[SCM33]

This place is inhabited by about a dozen or so people that have a pet issue' date=' or two, that they repeat ad nauseum whenever they feel events provide an opportunity, even if if takes a massive mental leap to arrive at such a conclusion. These types cannot be dissuaded from this, no matter how much events disprove, or at least make seem very unlikely, these conclusions. It is what it is.[/quote']

 

Minus Salty, Beckett, Papelbon, Shortstop, Closer and bullpen......I can personally say I am not one of those people.

 

To conclude, Salty sucks

[pedroias laser]

Yea a guy like Beckett who has velocity and can hit 97 on the gun and now all of a sudden can barely

hit 92 something is terribly wrong and you don't have to be a doctor to realize this.

[BornToRun]

Yea a guy like Beckett who has velocity and can hit 97 on the gun and now all of a sudden can barely

hit 92 something is terribly wrong and you don't have to be a doctor to realize this.

When's the last time Josh was hitting 97?

[mvp 78]

Yea a guy like Beckett who has velocity and can hit 97 on the gun and now all of a sudden can barely

hit 92 something is terribly wrong and you don't have to be a doctor to realize this.

 

The problem: he's aged and is in poor shape.

[jung]

Josh has not hit 97 in recent years. 97 was where he was topping out early in his career.

[Elktonnick]

Josh has not hit 97 in recent years. 97 was where he was topping out early in his career.

 

Several people have commetned that his velocity is down. It could be physical or aging but it also could be psychological in the sense Beckett doesn't pitch well unless he feels 100% comfortable. He clearly doesn't feel comfortable. The question is why?

[BornToRun]

Josh has not hit 97 in recent years. 97 was where he was topping out early in his career.

 

Exactly, he hasnt touched that in years. Even last year I remember him hovering around 93 or 94. Im anxious to see if he's gonna have the juice back on his fastball when he starts the home opener against Tampa. I think that will be an early indicator of what we can expect from him in that game.

[MANNYHOF24]

When's the last time Josh was hitting 97?

 

In a game I went to versus the Yankees in April last year, Beckett sat 94-96 the whole game. Josh topped out at 99-100 early on in his career when he was right, not 97.

[MANNYHOF24]

May I also point out that Josh was also one of the best pitchers in the AL last year, and only crumbled after he hurt his ankle against Toronto. I would also say that there was a start that he was pitching well against Baltimore at Fenway in which Terry left him in too long into the 8th inning, and ended up giving up 4 runs in the 8th, after giving up 1 or 2 all game before that.

[kapsis21]

May I also point out that Josh was also one of the best pitchers in the AL last year' date=' and only crumbled after he hurt his ankle against Toronto. I would also say that there was a start that he was pitching well against Baltimore at Fenway in which Terry left him in too long into the 8th inning, and ended up giving up 4 runs in the 8th, after giving up 1 or 2 all game before that.[/quote']

 

you need to add Giants suck in your signature?. :dunno:

[MANNYHOF24]

Is anyone worried about Jon Lester's decreasing velocity since 2011 started? His average FB velocity is 2009 and 2010 was 93.5 MPH, but last year that dipped to 92.6, and it his first start the average velocity was 91.4 MPH?

 

2009 and 2010 were Lester's best years, IMO.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P

[redsoxfan3]

Is anyone worried about Jon Lester's decreasing velocity since 2011 started? His average FB velocity is 2009 and 2010 was 93.5 MPH, but last year that dipped to 92.6, and it his first start the average velocity was 91.4 MPH?

 

2009 and 2010 were Lester's best years, IMO.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P

 

I am not too worried about it since it is the beginning of the year. He pitched well in his first start, so if that is the performance we get from him every game then I will not be worried about his velocity. You have to start worrying about that if he starts to struggle. It is also hard to make a judgment about his velocity off of one start. Maybe it is something to take note of towards June or July.

[a700hitter]

Edwin Jackson's average FB velocity was 94.6 mph in 2011. That would have looked nice at the back of the rotation for 200+ innings.

[The Boomer]

Is anyone worried about Jon Lester's decreasing velocity since 2011 started? His average FB velocity is 2009 and 2010 was 93.5 MPH, but last year that dipped to 92.6, and it his first start the average velocity was 91.4 MPH?

 

2009 and 2010 were Lester's best years, IMO.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P

 

Lester has been a slow starter for most of his career, IIRC. Let's see how he looks in May.

[mvp 78]

Edwin Jackson's average FB velocity was 94.6 mph in 2011. That would have looked nice at the back of the rotation for 200+ innings.

 

Well Doubront looked pretty good yesterday andBard can really sling it. It remains to be seen if Jackson would have been an upgrade.

[a700hitter]

Well Doubront looked pretty good yesterday andBard can really sling it. It remains to be seen if Jackson would have been an upgrade.

Bard would have been the closer, strengthening the pen and the rotation.

[mvp 78]

I don't want Bard as a closer. He wilted in September.

[a700hitter]

I don't want Bard as a closer. He wilted in September.

They all did.

[redsoxfan3]

Edwin Jackson's average FB velocity was 94.6 mph in 2011. That would have looked nice at the back of the rotation for 200+ innings.

 

Jackson would definitely have been a good addition. I am not worried about that now. We have who we have.

[mvp 78]

BV will have a pitcher attempt a SB during interleague play.