Red Sox 2012 fearless prediction thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Why? Because he couldn't get it done at AAA at age 21?

 

Not about getting it done. It's about making contact. He must make more contact or he is useless

[Dojji]

If he can't improve on his numbers this year I'll agree with you. But he gets that second full year.

[SCM33]

If he can't improve on his numbers this year I'll agree with you. But he gets that second full year.

 

I think if hes lucky, like I said....he will mostly resemble Rey Sanchez. With his defense, thats not horrible. Sanchez wasnt as awful as Ordonez. High contact, no power and a free swinger.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchre01.shtml

[jacksonianmarch]

Rey Sanchez made better contact

[Dojji]

Right. You've repeated yourself enough and your point is clear. It's gotten to the point that you're just saying it for the pleasure of being able to say something negative about a Red Sox prospect.

 

Keep chipping at it, and it'll be time to get out the chart again.

[SCM33]

Rey Sanchez made better contact

 

Hence why I said if he were lucky. I didnt make a direct comparison.

[ORS]

1 K in 5 AB's really isn't that terrible. It's not as good as those two' date=' but let's not get recharted here.[/quote']

You are not allowed to mention the chart because you are off the reservation with your hope-filled proclamations about what our prospects are going to do in the future. I revoke your privileges to even mention my copyrighted material.

[NZSox]

Lavarnway to be the Sox no.1 catcher by the end of the season.

[Elktonnick]

Based on openning day only, most fans agree, Red Sox best acquisition during the offseason was Jenny Dell!

[SoxSport]

On this SS discussion, none of those hall of famers could hit a lick their first few years in the majors. They were strictly glove types.

The Sox have won two world series lately with two SSs who were mainly glove types.

 

It's a bit tiring to hear about Iglesias .5xx OPS at AAA. A partial season where he was injured part of the time.

 

It's also tiring to hear that Lavarnway needs more seasoning as a catcher. He is now where Salty started last year defensively as a catcher. And a far better hitter.

 

The fact is both these guys are in the minors because the FO wants them in the minors, and it looks like Henry is letting them call the personnel shots--for now. All the stuff you read in the papers is just posturing supporting one side or the other.

[jung]

I think the only thing I don't like about using Salty as the argument for bringing up Lavarnway is that it sounds like we are institutionalizing the concept of having a truly crummy defensive catcher. Plus I can't say that I have seen enough of Lavarnway catch to be able to state with any credibility that he is where Salty was last year. So specifically in my case, I cannot even say that much.

 

Iggy is a real deal plus defender in a plus defender position and I cannot bring myself to conclude that half a season of AAA hitting experience is suddenly going to take Iggy way past the Mendoza line (.215). So if the prevailing thought is that Iggy gets here by midseason I simply don't know what that will accomplish by waiting other than losing a half season of Iggy playing SS for the Sox.

[example1]

Youkilis will be traded mid season unless he's hitting considerably better. Middlebrooks is ready, is a better fielder and might be more dynamic player at this point. I hope Youks makes a return to being decent, but he's sure looking inept so far.

[TutGadol]

Beckett fills in for Lackey with an era south of 5.5

Buchholz has a cy young worthy second half.

Crawford semi rebounds when healthy, OBPing above 300 and stealing 30.

Elu has a strong encore, 20 / 20.

Bailey doesn't pitch a single inning, Sox make a bold trade for a new closer.

Sweeny becomes a fan favorite

[Northern Star]

Crawford semi rebounds when healthy, OBPing above 300

 

He better for what he's getting paid.

[BornToRun]

Beckett pitches to a 3.40 or lower. Melancon finds his balls and fills in decently as closer until bailey gets back. Aceves returns to his old role and also reclaims his testicular fortitude. Doubront and Bard turn in solid low 4 eras as our rotation becomes one of the top ones in baseball

[RedSoxNC84]

Beckett pitches to a 3.40 or lower. Melancon finds his balls and fills in decently as closer until bailey gets back. Aceves returns to his old role and also reclaims his testicular fortitude. Doubront and Bard turn in solid low 4 eras as our rotation becomes one of the top ones in baseball

 

wishful thinking, but I feel as though it's possible.

[BornToRun]

wishful thinking' date=' but I feel as though it's possible.[/quote']

 

I'm flexible, I should've wrote in a give or take with the numbers. Melancon is the only one I feel a bit tentative about but it's 2 games in, I think we still need some time to effectively evaluate how he'll perform on this team. Dan wheeler looked pretty s***** at the start of last year but was actually pretty good for most of the year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Once again, I was only gamecasting, but Beckett's velo seemed down. When he's right, he can fire it up there mid 90s and get away with a few pitches up or out over the zone. When he's throwing 91 letter high, he cannot. His location was an issue, as was Buchholz's, Kuroda's, CC's, etc. It's early and location is going to be an issue for everyone. But the velo seemed down. I need someone to corroborate this or shoot it down. Like I said, I was gamecasting.

[a700hitter]

Youkilis will be traded mid season unless he's hitting considerably better. Middlebrooks is ready' date=' is a better fielder and might be more dynamic player at this point. I hope Youks makes a return to being decent, but he's sure looking inept so far.[/quote']If he starts hitting again, that might be the time to trade him for a good pitcher.

[MANNYHOF24]

Once again' date=' I was only gamecasting, but Beckett's velo seemed down. When he's right, he can fire it up there mid 90s and get away with a few pitches up or out over the zone. When he's throwing 91 letter high, he cannot. His location was an issue, as was Buchholz's, Kuroda's, CC's, etc. It's early and location is going to be an issue for everyone. But the velo seemed down. I need someone to corroborate this or shoot it down. Like I said, I was gamecasting.[/quote']

 

It was down. I thought he sat 88-91 on Saturday, which is not normal at all. I think he sat 92-95 last year in most starts.

[FredLynn]

It was down. I thought he sat 88-91 on Saturday' date=' which is not normal at all. I think he sat 92-95 last year in most starts.[/quote']

 

Generally, with an injury, the velocity and location are off. Beckett pitched like someone that is hurt. His next start should tell us for sure. If he velocity is where it was on Sat and his location remains off then no one should believe him that his thumb is "not a problem".

[mvp 78]

If he starts hitting again' date=' that might be the time to trade him for a good pitcher.[/quote']

 

Unlikely. I'd be all for it.

[SoxSport]

Hard to believe the Sox are in need of a blood transfusion so early. They have an infield in Pawtucket that probably could hold their own in Boston right now. At least the left side.

 

These guys are accustomed to sucking in April. Maybe they'll come around.

[jung]

Beckett was hitting 94 in ST. Beckett has not been throwing the kind of heat he had as a young fireballer for awhile now. I am really not sure, but I actually think on a regular basis he will top out at 93 this year. He occasionally hit 94 last year but he was mostly 92-93.

 

This looks more like injury to me because he location AND his velocity were off by a good deal.

 

By the same token, you could see him even last year struggling with getting enough of a velocity difference between his FB and his secondary pitches. It is almost to me like he is fighting this thing which I can understand. Once he falls to 92-93, if there is not enough velocity difference between his other pitches and his FB the good hitters get right on his FB. Last year that usually resulted in single inning blowups.

 

I am leaning toward injury in this case but there is also the chance that he is one year older having even more difficulty keeping the FB above 93 and hasn't yet gotten to the point where he is getting enough velocity difference between his FB and his other pitches.

[User Name]

You're coming to all of these conclusions after one start? Can we at least until he has another turn in the rotation?

[BornToRun]

Yeah really. He was superb in spring and although he was horrifyingly bad on Saturday, don't get me wrong, it isn't like Detroit isn't one of the most destructive offenses in baseball.

[jung]

Just talkin' about the way Beckett is pitching.

 

Want do you want to argue that it was a quality start.

 

It did not come out of thin air. Leland does not have a Beckett voodoo doll in his manager's office that he stuck before his start. We will know more after his next start. However to ignore how bad that was or to suggest that it just came out of thin air does not make much sense particularly since Josh is already discussing one element, the injury possibility.

 

Where in my post did I recommend an action....like taking Beckett out of the rotation or something like that. Hummmm....guess I didn't.

[BornToRun]

I'm not trying to argue with you I'm just saying maybe it was a bad day, it happens. We need more than one start to judge where he's at.

[jung]

Based on how Beckett pitched and since he is already talking about injury, I would put "a bad day" at the bottom of the list of possibilities. Still possibly but less likely than injury or continued issues with his conversion from a fireballer to a pitcher.

[jacksonianmarch]

Based on how Beckett pitched and since he is already talking about injury' date=' I would put "a bad day" at the bottom of the list of possibilities. Still possibly but less likely than injury or continued issues with his conversion from a fireballer to a pitcher.[/quote']

 

It's an even year. He has sucked in every even year of his career

 

2004- Missed 6 starts due to injury. Put up good numbers in his limited duty

2006- 200+IP, but sucked balls, 5+ERA, 36HR allowed

2008- Missed 5 starts due to injury, ERA was over 4

2010- Missed 11 starts, ERA over 5.7 with a WHIP over 1.5

 

It almost seems like he is durable and effective in the odd years to a point that he overdoes what his body can handle then breaks down the following yr.