Red Sox 2012 fearless prediction thread

[Palodios]

I agree on the depth. However' date=' no one knows what will happen with injuries this year. Lets say we stay healthy this year. Now how do you see the Sox turning out this year?[/quote']

 

What happened the last time the Red Sox's starting staff stayed healthy?

 

That being said, I think that based on the track record of the pitchers they currently have, it was unwise to assume a healthy season.

[a700hitter]

Strange how the entire outlook would change so much if we had a competent #4 SP. Oswalt comes in and we don't have to use our first "depth option" as a SP. I think we could withstand an injury if the basic rotation was solid to start with.

Yup. Our first depth option would be insurance against an injury to the top 3 or a bust by Bard. If Bard were to bust, we could move Aceves to the rotation and put Bard back in the Pen without missing a beat or weakening the pen. If Aceves can't gut it, we could use Doubront/Padilla etc and move Aceves back to the pen with Bard making for a very strong pen. Yes, getting or not getting a 5th starter potentially could have cascading consequences for the entire staff.

[FredLynn]

There is lots of talk about our #5 SP coming from recent acquisitions and some of us have pointed out just how bad they really are. I thought it would be useful to present some statistics the outline just how aweful these guys really are. Here are the facts:

 

Carlos Silva: Career ERA: 4.68. Last AL team was the Mariners (08, 09); had ERA there of 6.81

 

John Maine: Career ERA: 4.35. Last AL team (Orioles) had ERA of 6.60. ERA last year: 6.13

 

Justin Germano: Career ERA: 5.02. Last year in Cleveland had ERA of 5.68

 

Aaron Cooke: Career ERA: 4.53. Last year had an ERA of 6.03 (Rockies). No AL experience

 

Vicente Padilla: Career ERA: 4.31. Last AL team (Rangers, 4 years) ERA: 4.90. Is a nut case.

 

Folks, this is not a group of pitchers that should inspire confidence. If they have to pitch with any regularity, we could be clamoring for Matsusaka or Miller or even Wakefield. They are really really bad, even for #5 or 6 SP.

[Palodios]

There is lots of talk about our #5 SP coming from recent acquisitions and some of us have pointed out just how bad they really are. I thought it would be useful to present some statistics the outline just how aweful these guys really are. Here are the facts:

 

Carlos Silva: Career ERA: 4.68. Last AL team was the Mariners (08, 09); had ERA there of 6.81

 

John Maine: Career ERA: 4.35. Last AL team (Orioles) had ERA of 6.60. ERA last year: 6.13

 

Justin Germano: Career ERA: 5.02. Last year in Cleveland had ERA of 5.68

 

Aaron Cooke: Career ERA: 4.53. Last year had an ERA of 6.03 (Rockies). No AL experience

 

Vicente Padilla: Career ERA: 4.31. Last AL team (Rangers, 4 years) ERA: 4.90. Is a nut case.

 

Folks, this is not a group of pitchers that should inspire confidence. If they have to pitch with any regularity, we could be clamoring for Matsusaka or Miller or even Wakefield. They are really really bad, even for #5 or 6 SP.

 

The problem isn't the #5 spot. There are ten different guys for that spot. Cook and Padilla are the most likely candidates for that spot-- and considering that they both pitched in hitter's ballparks most of their careers (Philly/Texas/Colorado), and have been all-stars at one point, one of them(or the field) should be okay at Fenway. Wilson/Doubront/Tazawa may surprise. They also need to find a setup man somewhere, and I think Jenks is an unlikely candidate.

 

Where the problem lies, is when those guys get hurt. Essentially, what this team is looking for... is two needles in one haystack. I'm not sure if they're that lucky.

[FredLynn]

The problem isn't the #5 spot. There are ten different guys for that spot. Cook and Padilla are the most likely candidates for that spot-- and considering that they both pitched in hitter's ballparks most of their careers (Philly/Texas/Colorado), and have been all-stars at one point, one of them(or the field) should be okay at Fenway. Wilson/Doubront/Tazawa may surprise. They also need to find a setup man somewhere, and I think Jenks is an unlikely candidate.

 

Where the problem lies, is when those guys get hurt. Essentially, what this team is looking for... is two needles in one haystack. I'm not sure if they're that lucky.

 

Melancon is supposed to be the setup man.

I see the SP problem is that right off the bat we are penciling in our #6 guy as our #5 guy. When the inevitable injuries occur, we then have to go to our #7 and 8 guys. And they are horrible. But the main issue is, as you mentioned, that our depth is now starting as a #5.

[jacksonianmarch]

Padilla is your #6 starter right now, IMO. He's still got his old stuff, he's just injury prone and a f***ing psycho

[VA Sox Fan]

Padilla is your #6 starter right now' date=' IMO. He's still got his old stuff, he's just injury prone and [b']a f***ing psycho[/b]

 

Breaking news!

[Palodios]

Melancon is supposed to be the setup man.

 

Teams need more than one setup man. From the last few seasons, it seems like having four reliable bullpen arms(meaning three setup) is a must.

[iortiz]

Couple things:

 

1st off, the Red Sox SS last year hit .279, but more importantly, OPS'ed .730. Aviles can easily replicate that OPS himself next season. But regardless of that, what you want to look at is the combined OPS of RF and SS from last season.

 

RF OPS: .650

SS OPS: .730

 

The thing is - Cody Ross is going to OPS around ,760-.780 next season. He is capable of OPS'ing around .800-.805 if he has a solid season. With consistent playing time in a hitters park like Fenway, he's also good for 18-22 HR. So that's a substantial increase from the RF we had last year (.650 OPS, 14 HR, 58 RBI).

 

With that 110-130 point increase in OPS, we could have Iglesias come up, OPS around .600-.610, play gold glove caliber defense, and this team wouldn't miss a step in terms of offensive production from last year, but would see a huge boost in defense up the middle, which is the most important place to have solid defense.

 

Well, I meant Scu's bat (.299/358/781 through 445 PA), but I got your scenario.

 

Hopefully Aviles/Punto/Iglesias cover Scu's production.

[Gringo]

Aceves wins 15 games

[SoxSport]

Their 4 and 5 starters should be Bard and Aceves. I think Bard is going to surprise. Nolan Ryan would be starting him, too. The other guys are a longshot--maybe some BP help there. Padilla has the best shot at sticking.

[ORS]

Yup. Our first depth option would be insurance against an injury to the top 3 or a bust by Bard. If Bard were to bust' date=' we could move Aceves to the rotation and put Bard back in the Pen without missing a beat or weakening the pen. If Aceves can't gut it, we could use Doubront/Padilla etc and move Aceves back to the pen with Bard making for a very strong pen. Yes, getting or not getting a 5th starter potentially could have cascading consequences for the entire staff.[/quote']

Maybe it tells us something about their intent with Bard moving to the rotation. By that I mean, maybe moving Bard to the rotation isn't something they are only willing to support if he can find immediate success, but something they consider a long-term benefit they are willing to endure some bumps in the road for. In other words, they aren't going to get gun-shy with Bard in the rotation should he immediately struggle in the role this season. If they are willing to endure the bumps, ie they aren't going for broke this year (which all other moves suggest is the case), then insurance probably is an unnecesary luxury in their minds.

 

Don't take this to mean I think they are right. I see sound reasons to either "go for it now" or to proceed with the future in mind. Ultimately, their goals for this season and with Bard are of their own determination, and this may shed some light on it. Neither is right or wrong. It is what it is.

[User Name]

In the end, their goals for this season may hinge on how the team performs in the beginning stages of the season. Bard is a vital piece of that puzzle.

[Can Of Corn]

80-85 wins

[jung]

I think the one thing that would send Bard off to the pen sooner rather than later is if he starts slowly AND losses confidence in his ability to pull this off. We have seen opinions and even voiced them here that being a SP is not something that he has necessarily been drawn to up to this point. If he starts slowly but remains confident and enthusiastic about the possibilities as a starter then I think they will keep him there even with a slow start.

 

Hopefully that will not be an issue because it would likely help Bard immensely to have a good start. Knocking on wood as I speak.

[FredLynn]

In the end' date=' their goals for this season may hinge on how the team performs in the beginning stages of the season. Bard is a vital piece of that puzzle.[/quote']

 

Bard is a vital piece of the puzzle. Beckett is a vital piece of the puzzle. Lester is a vital piece of the puzzle. Buchholtz is a vital piece of the puzzle.

There are too many vital pieces of the puzzle before we start to get a good long look at the Dreg Brigade. To expect everyone will perform well and stay healthy is a stretch.

[sleepyhollow]

Pumpsie Green is a vital piece of this Board.l ...................JK

[a700hitter]

Maybe it tells us something about their intent with Bard moving to the rotation. By that I mean, maybe moving Bard to the rotation isn't something they are only willing to support if he can find immediate success, but something they consider a long-term benefit they are willing to endure some bumps in the road for. In other words, they aren't going to get gun-shy with Bard in the rotation should he immediately struggle in the role this season. If they are willing to endure the bumps, ie they aren't going for broke this year (which all other moves suggest is the case), then insurance probably is an unnecesary luxury in their minds.

 

Don't take this to mean I think they are right. I see sound reasons to either "go for it now" or to proceed with the future in mind. Ultimately, their goals for this season and with Bard are of their own determination, and this may shed some light on it. Neither is right or wrong. It is what it is.

I don't think they are expecting Bard to be Roger Clemens, but I do think that they expect some consistency and and innings. Sure that will come with bumps. I think we have to acknowledge that he might have more than a few bumps. There is the risk that it could be a train wreck for him like it was in the minors. I don't think it will be a train wreck, but we just can't be certain, because there is no track record for success as a starter. If he were to implode they would have to remove him from the rotation and put him back in the pen. I think the Sox are putting him in the rotation for 2 reasons. First, there are 2 openings due to injury, but equally as important is that Bard has requested the opportunity to start. I don't know how much they believe in his prospect for success.

[DirtDog]

John Lackey dies mid rehab from a lethal combination of alcohol poisoning and high cholesterol brought on by fast food chicken

 

Does his contract get voided?

[DirtDog]

Here goes...

 

Aceves becomes a reliable starter.

 

Buchholz pitches 200 innings.

 

Ryan Sweeney surprises in a platoon role offensively and defensively and becomes a fan favorite.

 

Bard eventually winds up back in the bullpen.

 

Youk gets hurt again. Plays no more than 115 games.

 

Adrian Gonzalez causes a stir when he refuses to play OF in inter-league play. Ortiz backs him up by going out and playing shortstop to keep him happy at 1B.

 

Red Sox win 95 games. Will it be good enough?

[SoxSport]

If they stay away from injuries, get in shape in ST, and get off to a fast start, they'll be right in there for the division title and should make the playoffs. It boils down to injuries for all the contending teams.

The Yankees are always vulnerable because of their age.

[SCM33]

Aceves wins 15 games

 

I think thats a reach.

[Emmz]

Its the fearless predictions thread.

[Laser Show]

Gonzo hits out 40

Crawford hits .315 with 40 SB

Ellsbury hits .300 with 20 HR and 50 SB

 

 

 

Ross Ohlendorf wins the Cy Young.

[yeszir]

I'm being fearlessly optimistic about this season

[VA Sox Fan]

I'm being fearlessly optimistic about this season

 

Me too, imagine that....

[a700hitter]

 

• Andrew Bailey hits the DL before the All Star Break. He is shut down in September to get TJ surgery in September.
  
• The player we get as compensation for Theo never wears a Red Sox uniform.

These two predictions seem to be well on their way.

[Palodios]

These two predictions seem to be well on their way.

 

Bailey is out for a thumb injury.

[BornToRun]

And I'm sure you're thrilled about that, 700.

[a700hitter]

And I'm sure you're thrilled about that' date=' 700.[/quote']Sure, I love to watch my beloved Sox lose.:thumbdown