Speculative: Youk for Santana

[a700hitter]

I counter with Youk for Santana and Trout.

[Laser Show]

I counter with Youk for Santana and Trout.

 

They can have Crawford too.

[example1]

e1' date=' you're including 2009 for convenience. He has been on the shelf at seasons end now 2 yrs in a row. Tex and Youk had down productive yrs in 2011, but Tex is on the field with regularity and you cannot say the same for Youk. Also, Tex is a full yr younger and has the better body type. Youk, when healthy, is a great run producer. But at 33, coming off 2 injured yrs in a row and now playing a more rigorous defensive position, you cannot guarantee he stays healthy. That severely limits his value[/quote']

 

Okay, let's try just 2010 and 2011:

 

Baseball Reference:

 

2010 and 2011 Combined WAR:

10. Adrian Beltre (11.3)

11. Troy Tulowitzki (11.2)

12. Robinson Cano (10.9)

13. Josh Hamilton (10.6)

14. Dustin Pedroia (10.5)

15. Michael Bourn (9.9)

16. Brett Gardner (9.6)

17. Andrew McCutchen (9.5)

18. Matt Holliday (9.3)

19. Ian Kinsler (9.1)

20. Kevin Youkilis (9.1)

21. Chris Young (8.9)

22. Paul Konerko (8.7)

23. Shane Victorino (8.6)

24. Mike Stanton (8.4)

25. Chase Utley (8.2)

 

Fangraphs 2010 and 2011 Combined WAR:

 

31. Michael Bourn (8.9)

32. Andres Torres (8.9)

33. Prince Fielder (8.9)

34. Jay Bruce (8.6)

35. Brian McCann (8.5)

36. Mike Napoli (8.4)

37. BJ Upton (8.2)

38. Kelly Johnson (8.1)

39. Alex Rodriguez (8.0)

40. Hunter Pence (7.9)

41. Corey Hart (7.9)

42. Nick Swisher (7.9)

43. Kevin Youkilis (7.9)

44. Jayson Werth (7.8)

45. Carl Crawford (7.8)

46. Howie Kendrick (7.7)

47. Chase Headley (7.7)

48. Dan Uggla (7.5)

49. Mark Teixeira (7.5)

50. Shin-Soo Choo (7.4)

 

(also ahead of players like Joe Mauer, Paul Konerko, Mike Stanton, Jason Heyward, Austin Jackson, David Ortiz, Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz, Yadier Molina, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez and Starlin Castro).

 

I don't care which of these measures you go by, Youkilis is still a very valuable player. Even when you take his time off for injuries into account, he's a very valuable player.

 

Also, it's not like he's been in an insignificant number of games. He's played 222 games in the past 2 years and has 952 PAs during that time. His injury problems are all the more reason for the Sox to not sign Ortiz.

 

Finally, I love the argument about Teixeira having a better body type. Do you read what you write before you submit? I mean, seriously, better body type for a guy who has been measurably less valuable despite having played significantly more? And he's a whole year younger? I hope for your sake that the age difference is spot-on, because he's got a lot of years left on his contract.

 

I guess that if we take your way of evaluating this into account, you will definitely, absolutely, and without hesitation say that Adrian Gonzalez is a better player than Teixeira. Not only do his numbers completely outpace Teixeira, but he's a full TWO YEARS younger. Right?

 

...where's that chart...

[SoxSport]

You sell low with Youks right now, coming off injuries. Plus he's 33.

When he's healthy, he's one of the best players in baseball. Santana, no.

 

He and Pedey are the two guys who have to be right for the Red Sox to win.

He was absent, by the way, in September. And they were both hurt 2nd half last year

when the Sox fell out of contention.

[example1]

And just to build off of the offensive ranks for Youkilis, here are the pitching ranks for Santana over the past 2 years:

 

Baseball Reference WAR 2010 and 2011 total:

18. Ian Kennedy (8.2)

19. Matt Cain (8)

20. Tim Lincecum (8)

21. Clay Buchholz (7.5)

22. Trevor Cahill (7.5)

23. Mark Buehrle (7.2)

24. Dan Haren (7.2)

25. Jeremy Guthrie (7.2)

26. John Danks (7)

27. Shaun Marcum (6.9)

28. Chris Carpenter (6.9)

29. Roy Oswalt (6.8)

30. Doug Fister (6.7)

31. Jhoulys Chacin (6.6)

32. Ervin Santana (6.4)

33. Mariano Rivera (6.4)

34. Anibal Sanchez (6.3)

35. Johnny Cueto (6.3)

36. Hiroki Kuroda (6.2)

37. Adam Wainwright (5.9)

38. Mat Latos (5.8)

39. Gavin Floyd (5.8)

40. Max Scherzer (5.6)

 

And Fangraphs 2010-2011:

 

40. Chad Billingsley (6.6)

41. Hiroki Kuroda (6.5)

42. Max Scherzer (6.5)

43. Tim Hudson (6.4)

44. Shaun Marcum (6.3)

45. Ryan Dempster (6.1)

46. Tommy Hanson (6.1)

47. Adam Wainwright (6.1)

48. Ricky Nolasco (6.0)

49. Carl Pavano (6.0)

50. Josh Beckett (5.7)

51. Ervin Santana (5.7)

 

The problems with Fangraphs use of FIP as part of WAR have been well articulated. Hence my inclusion of the B-R list. In any case, I see a number of names there that would cost either prospects or something less significant to the Sox than Kevin Youkilis.

 

Santana is a good pitcher, but he's not elite.

[SoxSport]

Santana is a good pitcher' date=' but he's not elite.[/quote']

 

Bingo.

Plus he's not a guy with upside. You look for guys with upside, like the Tigers did with Scherzer and Fister. Who's the Tigers' GM? Dombrowski? He had an excellent year, last year.

[example1]

Bingo.

Plus he's not a guy with upside. You look for guys with upside, like the Tigers did with Scherzer and Fister. Who's the Tigers' GM? Dombrowski? He had an excellent year, last year.

 

I think that stuff wise, Santana has upside. He's just never put it together. IIRC, Theo was pretty aggressive trying to look into deals for Santana maybe 4 years ago, but the Angels held tightly to him.

[jacksonianmarch]

e1, just do me a favor and look at the other guys on that list for a second. So you are telling me that Youkilis and Swisher are equals? Are you telling me that by those numbers, you'd rather have Brett Gardner than Youkilis?

[seabeachfred]

We have a guy here who used to pitch for the Angels. He had a 3.8' date=' a 3.7 and 3.01 ERA the three years before he came to Boston. His name is John Lackey, and we quickly learned the effect that a pitcher's park has on a guy's statistics. Its too soon iortiz. The wound is too deep.[/quote']

 

Palodios, maybe I could take on the role of resident expert on this one since I live only 30 miles from Angels Stadium and my wife, daughter and son-in-law are all Angels fans. NO WAY IN HELL DOES THAT TRADE EVER HAPPEN!!!!!!! And here's why. Mike Scioscia has maintained repeatedly that his team's biggest strength is their big three rotation of Haren, Weaver and Santana---and unlike it is around Boston, in Anaheim the manager wields a lot of authority. The Angels' need this winter may be a starter but run production and relief help are much higher on the list. They feel they can peel something from the slew of young hurlers they have to fix up the back end of their rotation but in no way would they even consider breaking up their top three starters. I would be tempted to eat a napkin if I turn out wrong on this.

[example1]

e1' date=' just do me a favor and look at the other guys on that list for a second. So you are telling me that Youkilis and Swisher are equals? Are you telling me that by those numbers, you'd rather have Brett Gardner than Youkilis?[/quote']

 

So your point is that the lists are wrong? Please, produce something better or get out of the kitchen.

 

Youkilis and Swisher as equals? No. As you pointed out, Youkilis missed a good chunk of the past 2 years. Despite that, his production was roughly equivalent to Swisher. Assuming he could stay healthy, perhaps splitting time between 3B, 1B and DH, I think Youkilis belongs among a much better list of players. You don't?

 

I see a bunch of names that seem like the kinds of players I equate Youkilis with in terms of overall production for a team: Tulowitzki, Cano, Hamilton, Pedroia, Holliday, Utley (on one list) and Fielder, McCann, Rodriguez, Crawford, Teixeira and Choo (on the other). Those are elite players, all.

 

Youk is on that list because he's one of the best hitters in baseball. He also happens to be a decent fielder at two positions.

 

Again, not trading him for Ervin Santana... unless perhaps Santana is cheaper or cost-controlled for a number of years. If this were 3-4 years ago, maybe.

[SoxFanForsyth]

e1' date=' just do me a favor and look at the other guys on that list for a second. So you are telling me that Youkilis and Swisher are equals? Are you telling me that by those numbers, you'd rather have Brett Gardner than Youkilis?[/quote']

 

All that you're proving is that WAR significantly overvalues defensive metrics. They should be included, but not to the degree that makes Gardner a more valuable player than Adrian Gonzalez, HanRam, and Brian McCann in 2010.

 

Also, Youkilis has only played an average of 111 games per season over the past 2 seasons. Obviously this is a concern, but when comparing the skill level of players by using WAR, it decreases a players value, as WAR increases with games played.

 

So basically, what they just posted regarding WAR is that Youkilis over 222 games is just as valuable as Swisher and Mark Teixeira over 300 games.

[Scott34]

Santana and Trout?

 

Dream on Sox fans.

[Spitball]

Santana and Trout?

 

Dream on Sox fans.

 

Trout is not going anywhere, especially as a throw in on a 33 year-old. And for that matter, the Angels have options at third base that won't include trading their third best starting pitcher. They have other trading chips from depth like Bourjos or Trumbo (who is injured but talented/promising/inexpensive).

 

I believe they'd rather have Arimis Rameriz and Santanta than Youkilis and no Santana.

[Scott34]

I was posting this because the Angels have serious interest in CJ Wilson and are actually meeting with his agent tonight. So if they sign him, they can move Santana for a bat.

 

Also, Dipoto has said they won't go after Ramirez

[Spitball]

I was posting this because the Angels have serious interest in CJ Wilson and are actually meeting with his agent tonight. So if they sign him' date=' they can move Santana for a bat.[/quote']

 

But, why would they need to trade starting pitching? Even if they acquire Wilson, they are a much stronger team with Santana as their number four than going with Williams, Chatwood, and/or Pineiro in their four and five options. There are third base options out there who would not cost Santana.

 

Also' date=' Dipoto has said they won't go after Ramirez[/quote']

 

I'm not sure that isn't posturing, but even if it isn't, there are options out there that wouldn't put question mark options in the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. Mark Reynolds, Casey Blake, Brandon Inge, and others that wouldn't cost a quality staring pitcher.

 

I like the idea though. I think it would be good for the Red Sox to get a Santana type to fill out the rotation. I just think his trade value is much higher than Youkilis's due to Youk's two injury filled years and falling OPS totals.

[iortiz]

But' date=' why would they [i']need[/i] to trade starting pitching? Even if they acquire Wilson, they are a much stronger team with Santana as their number four than going with Williams, Chatwood, and/or Pineiro in their four and five options. There are third base options out there who would not cost Santana.

 

 

 

I'm not sure that isn't posturing, but even if it isn't, there are options out there that wouldn't put question mark options in the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. Mark Reynolds, Casey Blake, Brandon Inge, and others that wouldn't cost a quality staring pitcher.

 

I like the idea though. I think it would be good for the Red Sox to get a Santana type to fill out the rotation. I just think his trade value is much higher than Youkilis's due to Youk's two injury filled years and falling OPS totals.

 

This is the only reason I'd trade Youk. Seems like the tendency goes that way regarding on his healthy and conditioning status.

[Spitball]

If Joe Saunders is non-tendered by Arizona and signed by the Angels, that might change the Angels' rotation situation. I would still doubt they would be willing to gamble on Youk's health and age.

[iortiz]

If Joe Saunders is non-tendered by Arizona and signed by the Angels' date=' that might change the Angels' rotation situation. I would still doubt they would be willing to gamble on Youk's health and age.[/quote']

 

At least there are prospects or a kind of compensation on the table as well.

[example1]

You think his value is "much higher" than Youkilis?

 

I see no reason that Youkilis as a half-time DH can't put up Ortiz numbers which, according to B-R would give him between 2.8 (2010) and 3.8 (2011) WAR. Santana was at 3.3 (2010) and 3.1 (2011).

 

I want more than Santana if they are giving up Youkilis.

 

As far as Youk's decline goes, I think the numbers say that a lot of that can be accounted for as a loss of average, which tends to fluctuate much more than his ability to see pitches or hit good pitches. The average will account for his SLG loss. His IsoD (OBP - AVG) was consistent last year.

 

In other words, I wouldn't be at all shocked if Youk came back with a mid-900s season next year. That's not to say he will do it forever, but I don't think he's washed up in the slightest.

 

Others clearly disagree.

[mvp 78]

His average will really fluctuate as he gets older, breaks down more, and loses bat speed. He'll be a part time player in 3 years (excluding injury).

[Spitball]

Of course we believe Youkilis will bounce back from injuries and decline, but that is not the way the trade market usually works. Starting pitchers are hard to develop and expensive to sign. Youkilis is one of my favorite players, but I think his trade value, due to age/injuries/dropping OPS, is at its lowest right now. Do I think he will bounce back? I think so but would not expect another team to gamble on my faith in Red Sox players.

[iortiz]

Of course we believe Youkilis will bounce back from injuries and decline' date=' but that is not the way the trade market usually works. Starting pitchers are hard to develop and expensive to sign. Youkilis is one of my favorite players, but I think his trade value, [b']due to age/injuries/dropping OPS, is at its lowest right now.[/b] Do I think he will bounce back? I think so but would not expect another team to gamble on my faith in Red Sox players.

 

Exactly.

 

On the other hand, if the Red Sox really belive that he can bounce back as us, they wouldn't trade him, otherwise they should be exploring those avenues.

[Spitball]

Exactly.

 

On the other hand, if the Red Sox really belive that he can bounce back as us, they wouldn't trade him, otherwise they should be exploring those avenues.

 

Right!

[example1]

Of course we believe Youkilis will bounce back from injuries and decline' date=' but that is not the way the trade market usually works. Starting pitchers are hard to develop and expensive to sign. Youkilis is one of my favorite players, but I think his trade value, due to age/injuries/dropping OPS, is at its lowest right now. Do I think he will bounce back? I think so but would not expect another team to gamble on my faith in Red Sox players.[/quote']

 

Exactly.

 

On the other hand, if the Red Sox really belive that he can bounce back as us, they wouldn't trade him, otherwise they should be exploring those avenues.

 

I'm not sure if the two of you are agreeing, or not.. :dunno:

 

Spitball's point, I think, is that selling on Youkilis right now would be "selling low". That's generally not a wise strategy. Even if Youk is on a decline, it is very reasonable to think he has good seasons left in him.

 

Even with his past two seasons of injuries, Youkilis has produced a higher WAR than Santana. I'm not entirely confident that Santana will get a lot better. I think Youk, simply by not being injured would produce more.

 

They are virtually the same price for the next two seasons (Santana--$24.2m, Youkilis--$25m). For the same money and higher production, I'm sticking with Youkilis.

 

The Sox shouldn't let their need for a SP add weight to the value of a guy like Santana. There are better options out there.

[User Name]

Santana is not a good fit for Fenway (he's been a fly-ball pitcher every year of his career except last year) and Youkilis is not a good fit for the Angels (He needs coddling and DH days, the Angels have Morales clogging up the position). This will not happen.

[iortiz]

I'm not sure if the two of you are agreeing, or not.. :dunno:

 

Spitball's point, I think, is that selling on Youkilis right now would be "selling low". That's generally not a wise strategy. Even if Youk is on a decline, it is very reasonable to think he has good seasons left in him.

 

Even with his past two seasons of injuries, Youkilis has produced a higher WAR than Santana. I'm not entirely confident that Santana will get a lot better. I think Youk, simply by not being injured would produce more.

 

They are virtually the same price for the next two seasons (Santana--$24.2m, Youkilis--$25m). For the same money and higher production, I'm sticking with Youkilis.

 

The Sox shouldn't let their need for a SP add weight to the value of a guy like Santana. There are better options out there.

 

I'm not sure what is the team's plan for Youk in the coming seasons. What is evident is that Youk just left his prime time and his career is likely on a decline. On the other hand, Santana is likely entering in his prime; notice that I'm not saying that he is or will be an elite/ace pitcher. I see an interesting upside on him (+- 3.5 ERA) and the risk in terms of money/time is low if he comes to Boston.

 

Tough, as I said, if the team strongly believe that he can bounce back, they must not trade him, otherwise, they should explore this and/or other avenues like this.

 

As I said, I don't see this trade happening anyway.