Ben Cherington

[iortiz]

I'm not sure if people still defending Theo and mostly at FA but He is full of failure specially in that department.

 

His financial metrics -- ROI/IRR/NPV/Cash Flow, etc. --on those busts are pathetic. You don't even need to make the maths to realize that.

 

As A700 said, move on... He's gone.

[Derach]

Theo is absolutely a better than average GM. Easily in the top 3rd in the majors by virtue of the only thing that really counts at the end of the day ... championship rings. It is hard to know to what extent decisions on huge $$ free agents was at the urging of ownership ... and the value of this FA acquisitions is his only legitimate criticism.

 

Having said that, Theo, tito, players and ownership all must share blame for the early and late season underperformance that cost the franchise this shakeup ... I think equally. The fact of the matter is that ownership will be the only party that will (probably) remain unaffected by the disappointing season.

[a700hitter]

Its all good for me. The only issue I have is when there is no data at all to support one's position and its passed off as fact somehow' date=' or as indisputable. I respect the opinions of those who think Epstein did a good job; I don't agree with that position, but there is at least some data to support that opinion. Not enough, but some. [/quote']There is almost no evidence that Epstein did a good job with big ticket FA signings (i.e. over $10 million). Reading the list of names is about all the research that needs to be done.

[jung]

I don't thionk that has been generally true. The Yankees have had a bust with AJ (arguably he has still been better than Lackey), but CC Sabathia has played as advertised. He's a horse. Tex had an off year in 2011, but aside from that he has performed at an excellent level. Going back, Damon was a good acquisition for them. Theo's big money FA acquisitions almost uniformly have been busts.

 

Really...and ARod at $32M per year as he is aging? That contract runs out as ARod turns 42 years old. As good as he is, it will be hard to justify that kind of money into the early exits that the Yanks have already suffered up to this point. As father time erodes his skills, he will be less and less capable of carrying the Yankees into the post season and his post season record is pretty shabby up to this point.

[ORS]

Theo's Big Ticket FA Acquistions (i.e. anything over $10 million):

 

Lackey

Crawford

Drew

Dice K

Lugo

Cameron

Jenks

Renteria

Clement

Foulke

 

Am I missing anyone? Do we really need to research WAR on these guys. It's a damning list.

Right, but nobody is arguing that he did well with his big signings.

 

As for me, I'm only pointing out the faulty methodology used by someone who tried to evaluate his FA signing performance as a whole, both big ticket and the small ticket finds. And I only critiqued the method. I had no idea what the result of the better method was, and in no way was I suggesting pumpsie was totally wrong, only that he arrived at a conclusion (assigment of final grade based on a bad $ FA ratio) using a flimsy analysis.

 

If you are taking my posts as a defense of what Epstein did when he awarded big contracts, then you've missed the point of my posts.

[example1]

...and I'm not defending his FA acquisitions.

 

I'm saying that calling out Epstein's FA acquisition history as a way of grading him an average GM (that's what a "C" is) is akin to saying that Adrian Gonzalez is an average player because he's not fast. As a proportion of what he does, the running is mitigated by the abiliy to not make outs and play defense.

 

The value of the FA flops was far outweighed by the value of the home grown talent. It wouldn't have if the only home grown talent was Youkilis and Buchholz, but it wasn't. They developed (and didn't trade) an array of All-Stars. That's not average production from the farm system. It didn't break even, it was far exceeded. That's what allowed this team to win 92 games a year despite the struggles with FA. Of course it could have been better in terms of FA. Nobody would argue that, but that doesn't, in and of itself, make him an average GM.

[SoxSport]

...and I'm not defending his FA acquisitions.

 

I'm saying that calling out Epstein's FA acquisition history as a way of grading him an average GM (that's what a "C" is) is akin to saying that Adrian Gonzalez is an average player because he's not fast. As a proportion of what he does, the running is mitigated by the abiliy to not make outs and play defense.The value of the FA flops was far outweighed by the value of the home grown talent. It wouldn't have if the only home grown talent was Youkilis and Buchholz, but it wasn't. They developed (and didn't trade) an array of All-Stars. That's not average production from the farm system. It didn't break even, it was far exceeded. That's what allowed this team to win 92 games a year despite the struggles with FA. Of course it could have been better in terms of FA. Nobody would argue that, but that doesn't, in and of itself, make him an average GM.

 

 

True. AdGon isn't bad defensively; Youks is better, but he doesn't get points for it in the James Bible.

I think offensive stats are overweighted vs other things that are important in fundamental team play.

 

And what about 1-dimensional DHs? As opposed to those who can play one or two positions as well? That has to figure in Papi's value--especially considering how thin the depth is on a 25 man roster carrying 11-12 pitchers.

[Palodios]

Theo's Big Ticket FA Acquistions (i.e. anything over $10 million):

 

Lackey

Crawford

Drew

Dice K

Lugo

Cameron

Jenks

Renteria

Clement

Foulke

 

Am I missing anyone? Do we really need to research WAR on these guys. It's a damning list.

 

I'm going to play devil's advocate here. What about the financial effect caused by these signings-- not in the long term, but the short term. Every year, the Red Sox have made some big splash to turn up ticket sales. How many years have we gone into the season saying to ourselves "This is going to be a great year, look at this offense!" or "We're going to have the best pitching rotation in the major leagues" or "BEST TEAM EVAH" or something along those lines. As a fan, to see your organization put big money and prospects into the team year after year builds confidence. Look at what they've done after the playoffs every year:

 

2010-- Crawford/Gonzo/Jenks

2009-- Lackey/Scutaro/Cameron

2008-- Smoltz/Penny

2007-- Won the world series

2006-- JD Drew/ Dice-k

2005-- Beckett Lowell

2004-- Red Sox fans on all time high after World Series... and they sign Renteira.

[example1]

True. AdGon isn't bad defensively; Youks is better, but he doesn't get points for it in the James Bible.

I think offensive stats are overweighted vs other things that are important in fundamental team play.

 

And what about 1-dimensional DHs? As opposed to those who can play one or two positions as well? That has to figure in Papi's value--especially considering how thin the depth is on a 25 man roster carrying 11-12 pitchers.

 

I think Fangraphs' WAR captures defense and baserunning decently.

 

In the discussion about GMs, I think the Free Agent signing flops are a very obvious and surface-level way of evaluating a GM. We all know the money involved in signing those guys, and can see pretty easily how those veterans do after compared to how they did before.

 

The much more subtle measure is their ability to develop and discover talent 'on the cheap' or for very good value. A cost-controlled star, particularly pitchers, are the absolute most valuable players there can be.

 

By extension, you have to evaluate the choices about re-signing FAs against the talent acquired from the draft picks gained for letting those players go. People can very easily criticize a move like letting Adrian Beltre go, but until we see how those draft picks turn out it will be hard to know whether the investment in the future (Swihart and Owens) was worth it.

 

It's a much more complicated thing than "did the FA work out".

[FredLynn]

...and I'm not defending his FA acquisitions.

 

I'm saying that calling out Epstein's FA acquisition history as a way of grading him an average GM (that's what a "C" is) is akin to saying that Adrian Gonzalez is an average player because he's not fast. As a proportion of what he does, the running is mitigated by the abiliy to not make outs and play defense.

 

The value of the FA flops was far outweighed by the value of the home grown talent. It wouldn't have if the only home grown talent was Youkilis and Buchholz, but it wasn't. They developed (and didn't trade) an array of All-Stars. That's not average production from the farm system. It didn't break even, it was far exceeded. That's what allowed this team to win 92 games a year despite the struggles with FA. Of course it could have been better in terms of FA. Nobody would argue that, but that doesn't, in and of itself, make him an average GM.

 

What grade would you give him for FA acquisitions and budget management? I would give him a D at best, maybe even an F. So even if he gets a B or an A with regard to trades he engineered and his staff gets an A for drafting good players (as someone here mentioned, he doesn't do that himself), it still averages out to mediocrity. If all we graded him on was his FA record, he would have failed school.

[Palodios]

What grade would you give him for FA acquisitions and budget management? I would give him a D at best' date=' maybe even an F. So even if he gets a B or an A with regard to trades he engineered and his staff gets an A for drafting good players (as someone here mentioned, he doesn't do that himself), it still averages out to mediocrity. If all we graded him on was his FA record, he would have failed school.[/quote']

 

Averaging an A, an A, and a D would get a grade of B/B+.

[FredLynn]

Really...and ARod at $32M per year as he is aging? That contract runs out as ARod turns 42 years old. As good as he is' date=' it will be hard to justify that kind of money into the early exits that the Yanks have already suffered up to this point. As father time erodes his skills, he will be less and less capable of carrying the Yankees into the post season and his post season record is pretty shabby up to this point.[/quote']

 

These kinds of contracts (eg: the one Slappy got) are always front loaded in terms of performance expectations. Don't you think that the Yankees knew that his performance at age 38, 39, 40 would not be as good as it would be early on? I only wish they were that stupid; they aren't. The fact of the matter is that his total Yankee career numbers to date are very very good. There are not a lot of guys who have an OPS of over .940 cumulative for eight years. Cashman also got CC and the Garcia/Colon duo who were steals this year, as was Russell Martin. He stole Teixeira from under our noses. Yeah, Burnett was a bust, but who did Epstein get for us? Lackey and Crawford come to mind. Cameron too. And Jenks.

[FredLynn]

Averaging an A' date=' an A, and a D would get a grade of B/B+.[/quote']

 

I am not giving him full credit for drafting good players. His staff did that. Only for the deals he had more of a hand in: trades and FA acquisitions. And who says he gets an A in drafting and trading? And how about his grade in budget management?

[ipot]

I have repeatedly stated over the years that I was of NO opinion of Epstein. It is impossible to gauge some GM's performance. What if he only had $80M a year to spend? What if he had stayed in SD? What if Millar never drew the BB in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS?

 

I also feel that stuff like WAR, though useful, feels a bit arbitrary.

 

Of course JD Drew will have a decent WAR over a AAA guy. But, is that the "replacement" we should be comparing a $14M a year guy to? Why don't we compare him to all STARTING MLB RFers? That's my issue with that number.

 

Epstein can go to the Cubs and build a record a of futility or he can escape by the hair of his butt like he did in 2004 when he was 2 outs away from a sweep by the NYY. That 8 game tear that one us the ring was a thing of astronomical odds and Epstein did NOT engineer that.

[FredLynn]

I have repeatedly stated over the years that I was of NO opinion of Epstein. It is impossible to gauge some GM's performance. What if he only had $80M a year to spend? What if he had stayed in SD? What if Millar never drew the BB in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS?

 

I also feel that stuff like WAR, though useful, feels a bit arbitrary.

 

Of course JD Drew will have a decent WAR over a AAA guy. But, is that the "replacement" we should be comparing a $14M a year guy to? Why don't we compare him to all STARTING MLB RFers? That's my issue with that number.

 

Epstein can go to the Cubs and build a record a of futility or he can escape by the hair of his butt like he did in 2004 when he was 2 outs away from a sweep by the NYY. That 8 game tear that one us the ring was a thing of astronomical odds and Epstein did NOT engineer that.

 

When Orwell gets here he can debate WAR and those kind of metrics with those here who think that they are extremely useful numbers. Orwell is a mathmatician.

[a700hitter]

I'm going to play devil's advocate here. What about the financial effect caused by these signings-- not in the long term, but the short term. Every year, the Red Sox have made some big splash to turn up ticket sales. How many years have we gone into the season saying to ourselves "This is going to be a great year, look at this offense!" or "We're going to have the best pitching rotation in the major leagues" or "BEST TEAM EVAH" or something along those lines. As a fan, to see your organization put big money and prospects into the team year after year builds confidence. Look at what they've done after the playoffs every year:

 

2010-- Crawford/Gonzo/Jenks

2009-- Lackey/Scutaro/Cameron

2008-- Smoltz/Penny

2007-- Won the world series

2006-- JD Drew/ Dice-k

2005-- Beckett Lowell

2004-- Red Sox fans on all time high after World Series... and they sign Renteira.

I'm not sure what point you are making here. Are you saying that the FA acquisitions brought in payment streams that better FA acquisitions would not have brought in?

[ORS]

I have repeatedly stated over the years that I was of NO opinion of Epstein. It is impossible to gauge some GM's performance. What if he only had $80M a year to spend? What if he had stayed in SD? What if Millar never drew the BB in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS?

 

I also feel that stuff like WAR, though useful, feels a bit arbitrary.

 

Of course JD Drew will have a decent WAR over a AAA guy. But, is that the "replacement" we should be comparing a $14M a year guy to? Why don't we compare him to all STARTING MLB RFers? That's my issue with that number.

 

Epstein can go to the Cubs and build a record a of futility or he can escape by the hair of his butt like he did in 2004 when he was 2 outs away from a sweep by the NYY. That 8 game tear that one us the ring was a thing of astronomical odds and Epstein did NOT engineer that.

But, it's not arbitrary. They puposely assigned replacement level to reflect the type of player that is freely available in either AAA or on the waiver wire after the season has started for a reason. Commonly, that's all you are left with in terms of no cost options when a player goes down to injury. If you want better, you can get better than replacement level through trade, but that comes with a cost of either talent or salary absorbtion.

 

It also allows you bottom out the scale of $/WAR. If you made the baseline average instead of replacement, you'd have to adjust the scale to start at average. For instance, a 6.0 WAR player becomes a 3.2 WAA player (hypothetical). His WAA salary would need a standard adjustment of the average players salary, and then his value would be....

 

Avg Salary + WAA Value ..... which would be about the same as his WAR Value.

 

The current system allows a 0 WAR player to provide 0 WAR Salary value without an adjustment. It's just easier that way.

[Palodios]

I'm not sure what point you are making here. Are you saying that the FA acquisitions brought in payment streams that better FA acquisitions would not have brought in?

 

What I'm saying is that I don't believe Theo didn't see the warning signs. Any armchair GM can tear apart the stats and see problems in Crawford, Lackey, Lugo etc long before they got here and turned to garbage. But they sold tickets--which is really all that the ownership can ask for, besides playoff revenue, obviously.

[seabeachfred]

Can't say I'd be too thrilled with him getting bumped up. He'd be Lucchino's Ball Boy, and just a holdover from a failed system....

 

Lucchino was ready to push Theo overboard back in 2005, but public sentiment jammed up his plans. Now he can exert total control...there is no way the GM and manager are going to have much of a say in anything.

 

Lucchino finally has the power he's wanted.

 

You said a mouthful Gringo. We need a general housecleaning after this year's diastrous failure. We don't need a Epstein-light running the show. I also wonder what kind of power he is going to have anyway if Lucchino finally comes out of hiding and decides to take charge again. Many of us were down on him back in '05 when he apparently forced Epstein into the gorilla suit, but as subsequent events have proved he was probably right all along. As for a manager, we must stay away from anyone on Francona's staff. Most were dull and unispired clones of the departed skipper and a tougher brand is needed for next year.

 

Chicken and beer in the clubhouse during games also must go along with the miserable medical staff that became synonomous with one misdiagnoses after another. It is looking up to be a long winter of discontent for us but a good pick for a manager and ridding ourselves of relics like Varitek and Wakefield would be a step in the right direction, but there is also a lot of o ther dead weight we may not have much success in upchucking.

[FredLynn]

What I'm saying is that I don't believe Theo didn't see the warning signs. Any armchair GM can tear apart the stats and see problems in Crawford' date=' Lackey, Lugo etc long before they got here and turned to garbage. But they sold tickets--which is really all that the ownership can ask for, besides playoff revenue, obviously.[/quote']

 

If you are right then he intentionally screwed the club's long term ability to win. I don't think he is that evil, but he is dumb enough not to see the warning signs IMO.

[a700hitter]

What I'm saying is that I don't believe Theo didn't see the warning signs. Any armchair GM can tear apart the stats and see problems in Crawford' date=' Lackey, Lugo etc long before they got here and turned to garbage. But they sold tickets--which is really all that the ownership can ask for, besides playoff revenue, obviously.[/quote']So are you saying that Crawford and Lackey sold more tickets than Matt Holliday and Cliff Lee would have sold? I'm not quite sure what you are using as a basis for defending these bad FA signings.

[FredLynn]

You said a mouthful Gringo. We need a general housecleaning after this year's diastrous failure. We don't need a Epstein-light running the show. I also wonder what kind of power he is going to have anyway if Lucchino finally comes out of hiding and decides to take charge again. Many of us were down on him back in '05 when he apparently forced Epstein into the gorilla suit, but as subsequent events have proved he was probably right all along. As for a manager, we must stay away from anyone on Francona's staff. Most were dull and unispired clones of the departed skipper and a tougher brand is needed for next year.

 

Chicken and beer in the clubhouse during games also must go along with the miserable medical staff that became synonomous with one misdiagnoses after another. It is looking up to be a long winter of discontent for us but a good pick for a manager and ridding ourselves of relics like Varitek and Wakefield would be a step in the right direction, but there is also a lot of o ther dead weight we may not have much success in upchucking.

 

Welcome aboard Fred! Glad you could make it. Hope the beach treated you well.

[Palodios]

I am not giving him full credit for drafting good players. His staff did that. Only for the deals he had more of a hand in: trades and FA acquisitions. And who says he gets an A in drafting and trading? And how about his grade in budget management?

 

If you're not going to give him full credit for scouting prospects, you can't give him full credit for scouting free agents either. As far as budget management, I think he has done very well. How many homegrown players have the Red Sox not been able to afford to give contract extensions to? Every year, 10-20 million comes off the payroll, and every year that money goes back into the system.

 

The Red Sox have the second best group of homegrown players in baseball right now, according to WAR values. I think that's worthy of an A in drafting.

 

And despite his failures with FA signings, pretty much every big trade Theo has made has been gold, with the exception of Gagne.

[seabeachfred]

Welcome aboard Fred! Glad you could make it. Hope the beach treated you well.

 

I don't know if I'm going to drop Sawxheads intirelly Pumpsie. I've posted here a few years back when I got into a row with some jerks from a now defunct Dodger Board. I still cannot understand how those pollies over on Sawxheads could have been so blind as to not see what we were. We just didn't know how right we were about the rot in the clubhouse. What angers me is that we might be talking about 2012 as a bridge year unless Dame Fortune finally smiles on us and the front office starts doing the right thing like hiring a manager who will not stand for the crap that took place in the dugout and clubhouse this season.

 

I just hope this board has a few more realists than the dreamers we were dealing with on Sawxheads.

[FredLynn]

If you're not going to give him full credit for scouting prospects, you can't give him full credit for scouting free agents either. As far as budget management, I think he has done very well. How many homegrown players have the Red Sox not been able to afford to give contract extensions to? Every year, 10-20 million comes off the payroll, and every year that money goes back into the system.

 

The Red Sox have the second best group of homegrown players in baseball right now, according to WAR values. I think that's worthy of an A in drafting.

 

And despite his failures with FA signings, pretty much every big trade Theo has made has been gold, with the exception of Gagne.

 

So you are saying that his role in scouting young talent is equal to his role in scouting free agents? You know that is not true. He negotiates with the agents of the FA personally; he signs off on the draft picks. Totally different level of involvement. I will give you a point on his trades; most have worked out well.

[Palodios]

So are you saying that Crawford and Lackey sold more tickets than Matt Holliday and Cliff Lee would have sold? I'm not quite sure what you are using as a basis for defending these bad FA signings.

 

Not more tickets-- rather, an equal amount of tickets. Does the casual fan care about what the roster looks like at the time? No, they hear about a big signing, a name that they've actually heard of, and it compells them to be more interested in the team. It seems like 90% of big contracts turn to busts these days anyway-- hell, even Cliff Lee got paid 25 million to melt in the postseason this year.

[FredLynn]

I don't know if I'm going to drop Sawxheads intirelly Pumpsie. I've posted here a few years back when I got into a row with some jerks from a now defunct Dodger Board. I still cannot understand how those pollies over on Sawxheads could have been so blind as to not see what we were. We just didn't know how right we were about the rot in the clubhouse. What angers me is that we might be talking about 2012 as a bridge year unless Dame Fortune finally smiles on us and the front office starts doing the right thing like hiring a manager who will not stand for the crap that took place in the dugout and clubhouse this season.

 

I just hope this board has a few more realists than the dreamers we were dealing with on Sawxheads.

 

From what I can see, its a respectful eclectic group. Good discussions; little rancor. You need both sides represented to have an interesting discussion Fred. How incredibly boring it would be for everyone to agree on everything. Thats what will happen on the new board. More power to them.

Since you are not a Dodger fan I don't think that will be an issue here, hopefully. Unless the King tosses me off, I will probably be here most of the time.

[a700hitter]

Not more tickets-- rather' date=' an equal amount of tickets. Does the casual fan care about what the roster looks like at the time? No, they hear about a big signing, a name that they've actually heard of, and it compells them to be more interested in the team. It seems like 90% of big contracts turn to busts these days anyway-- hell, even Cliff Lee got paid 25 million to melt in the postseason this year.[/quote']So, you are defending the FA signings of Crawford and Lackey on the basis that they sold as many tickets with them as they would have sold with Holliday and Lee? Keep in mind that the have sold out every game for about 8 years. I still don't understand why the FO wouldn't want the better players. It's not like Crawford and Lackey were bargains compared to Holliday and Lee.

[redsoxrules]

Weren't you all for the Crawford signing A700 ?

[a700hitter]

Weren't you all for the Crawford signing A700 ?

Yes I was.