Josh Beckett

[a700hitter]

I would say the Sox will make every effort to move Beckett and will in fact take the best offer made for him. That probably means trying to find somebody that will eat enough of his salary to make the remainder palatable for the Sox. In his case, I do not even think they will be careful about where they send him. He is a 10/5 guy so that already stands in the way.

 

I would say that the best they can expect is to pay half Beckett's salary, getting nothing in return unless somebody gives them some throw in guy they don't care about.

 

I am tired of caring about whether he is hurt or not. What does it matter? He is not going back to 98-97-96-95 or even 94 mph. He will likely be down here at 91 and maybe 92 for whatever remains of his career.

One of the big questions in the off season will be what to do with Beckett and Lester. It will be hard to move them both. Realistically, they will be only able to move one of them. The other IMO should be moved to the bottom of the rotation. WHich should be moved?

 

Beckett is older and his velocity is lower than Lester's. He's also the more unlikeable of the two-- an irrelevant factor. His affect on the clubhouse is not irrelelvant, but we really can't judge that. Everyone thinks Lackey is a cancer, but the players in the clubhouse apparently love the guy. Here is the case in favor of Beckett. He has better control than Lester and IMO, that gives him an edge in adapting to diminished velocity. He has demonstrated his ability to win big games on a big stage. As recently as last year, he dominated the Yankees. The unknown factor that may tip the scales in favor of keeping Beckett is whether he has been pitching injured. It seems like years ago, but at the beginning of the season there was the disclosure that he had a thumb ligament issue. He said that he though he could get through the season with it without getting surgery. If this has been hampering his performance and it can be fixed with off season surgery, he is probably the one they should keep. Lester has been injury free. Whatever is wrong with him might be a lot harder to fix. If he returns to form by the end of the season, I keep Lester. If he does not rebound strongly in 2012, I'd consider moving him and keeping Beckett.

[SoxFanForsyth]

One of the big questions in the off season will be what to do with Beckett and Lester. It will be hard to move them both. Realistically, they will be only able to move one of them. The other IMO should be moved to the bottom of the rotation. WHich should be moved?

 

Beckett is older and his velocity is lower than Lester's. He's also the more unlikeable of the two-- an irrelevant factor. His affect on the clubhouse is not irrelelvant, but we really can't judge that. Everyone thinks Lackey is a cancer, but the players in the clubhouse apparently love the guy. Here is the case in favor of Beckett. He has better control than Lester and IMO, that gives him an edge in adapting to diminished velocity. He has demonstrated his ability to win big games on a big stage. As recently as last year, he dominated the Yankees. The unknown factor that may tip the scales in favor of keeping Beckett is whether he has been pitching injured. It seems like years ago, but at the beginning of the season there was the disclosure that he had a thumb ligament issue. He said that he though he could get through the season with it without getting surgery. If this has been hampering his performance and it can be fixed with off season surgery, he is probably the one they should keep. Lester has been injury free. Whatever is wrong with him might be a lot harder to fix. If he returns to form by the end of the season, I keep Lester. If he does not rebound strongly in 2012, I'd consider moving him and keeping Beckett.

 

It's not even a discussion. You keep Lester. You get rid of Beckett. It's not close, either. Lester is a much, much, much better pitcher than Beckett. Lester was touching 95 in his last outing vs TEX, so you know his stuff is there. His cutter has looked much better in his past couple appearances as well.

 

I actually liken Lester's past few starts to that of Buchholz right before he got out of his funk. He would get through 5 or 6 IP, and then implode in the 6th or 7th. That is when he was right on the verge of getting out of his funk. And that's where I peg Lester to be right now.

 

Plain and simple, I think Lester is still very capable of being the 3.30 ERA pitcher, and I think he will be that guy next season. I would be shocked if he didn't bounce back. I wouldn't bat an eye if he did.

 

His K rate on the entire season is down, but he's struck out 64 in his last 67.1 IP, so that's trending upward, while keeping his walks low (19 BB in that same span, over a 3.00 K:BB, which is excellent).

 

His biggest difference between seasons past and this season is a 15% drop in his LOB% and a .040 point spike in his BABIP. To me, all signs point to him being back to normal next season. And if you are wanting to give up on 813.1 IP of 3.33 ERA baseball over the past 4 years because of 141 IP of 5.33 ERA baseball, then I just don't know what to tell you. You don't just drop a guy because he's had a tough season.

 

Look at Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, Ricky Romero, Tim Lincecum this year. Pitchers sometimes just have down years for whatever reason. If it's a young, controllable guy who has a track record, you don't just punt him.

[a700hitter]

It's not even a discussion. You keep Lester. You get rid of Beckett. It's not close, either. Lester is a much, much, much better pitcher than Beckett. Lester was touching 95 in his last outing vs TEX, so you know his stuff is there. His cutter has looked much better in his past couple appearances as well.

 

I actually liken Lester's past few starts to that of Buchholz right before he got out of his funk. He would get through 5 or 6 IP, and then implode in the 6th or 7th. That is when he was right on the verge of getting out of his funk. And that's where I peg Lester to be right now.

 

Plain and simple, I think Lester is still very capable of being the 3.30 ERA pitcher, and I think he will be that guy next season. I would be shocked if he didn't bounce back. I wouldn't bat an eye if he did.

 

His K rate on the entire season is down, but he's struck out 64 in his last 67.1 IP, so that's trending upward, while keeping his walks low (19 BB in that same span, over a 3.00 K:BB, which is excellent).

 

His biggest difference between seasons past and this season is a 15% drop in his LOB% and a .040 point spike in his BABIP. To me, all signs point to him being back to normal next season. And if you are wanting to give up on 813.1 IP of 3.33 ERA baseball over the past 4 years because of 141 IP of 5.33 ERA baseball, then I just don't know what to tell you. You don't just drop a guy because he's had a tough season.

 

Look at Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, Ricky Romero, Tim Lincecum this year. Pitchers sometimes just have down years for whatever reason. If it's a young, controllable guy who has a track record, you don't just punt him.

My remarks were premised on Lester not turning things around by the end of the season. If he doesn't, whether or not they move him, the Red Sox should not plan on handing him the ball in 2013 in the top of the rotation.

[a700hitter]

Also, it should be pointed out that lester's 2011, while stellar compared to his 2012 performance, was also an off year. This is 2 off years in a row with this one being far worse.

[a700hitter]

His K rate on the entire season is down, but he's struck out 64 in his last 67.1 IP, so that's trending upward, while keeping his walks low (19 BB in that same span, over a 3.00 K:BB, which is excellent).

His k rate has fallen by a full strike out per 9 innings in each of the last 2 seasons.

 

Another consideration in moving Lester is that he would have a lot more trade value than Beckett. There is no certainty that his performance will far exceed Beckett's performance.

[Emmz]

There's no certainty, but as much as I hate the idea of waiting to see what happens next year, and possibly costing us the season if he sucks again, I can't say I disagree with SFF.

 

I can't say I totally agree either, that he's getting back on track. He needs to have a streak of ace-like performances for me to think he's on his way.

[SoxSport]

I think the Red Sox organization is incapable of making major changes. They are still in denial, but after that they still will be incapable of making changes. At some point, Henry will realize HE is the one who has to change the people who make changes.

[DocHolliday]

I think the Red Sox organization is incapable of making major changes. They are still in denial' date=' but after that they still will be incapable of making changes. At some point, Henry will realize HE is the one who has to change the people who make changes.[/quote']

 

It really is sad that the organization probably won't make major changes needed for next year.

 

They might have the best read at the organization but they seem to be so intoxicated by their own mess. Just about every fan and media member, who follow this team closely as well, all come to the same conclusion - this team is deeply flawed.

 

I was listening to OverTheMonster's most recent podcast today featuring ESPN's Steve B. For a national sports anchor, he had a really well rounded opinion about the need for change in this organization.

 

I highly recommend OTM podcasts

[Brennan]

You heard it here first, I'm betting that both Beckett and Lester are back heading up the rotation next year. The players run the show in Boston and have for quite awhile now.

[jung]

Well I am not sure that I agree that both Beckett and Lester cannot be moved in the same off season. Beckett is not going to be a player deal. The Sox will get nothing back for Beckett. The entire discussion presuming they get into one will be around how much salary the Sox will pay. I suppose there is a chance that a meaningless prospect will come back the Sox way for Beckett. Certainly won't be anybody that impacts the deal one way or the other.

 

Lester does have value and that will be a straight up player deal if they do try to move him. I was OK with keeping Lester all the way up until this last start. He STILL is unable to deal with this ump s*** and now he unravels seemingly even faster than he was before. Considering all the other issues he is facing, I would no longer be all that concerned if the Sox moved Lester as well. I am not saying that they MUST move him although if this continues like this for the remainder of the season by the end I might just decide that I have seen enough. There is just to much going on with Lester at this point.

 

In fact if they decided to keep Lester at this point and move him down to something like the 3 or 4 in the rotation, I would take that as a sign that they may be considering 2013 a bridge year. You cannot have a guy pitching like that in your rotation and then be taken seriously if you claim you are on a mission to the post season.

 

Remember what we will likely have if the Sox are unable to bring in a legit #1 for the rotation:

Lester....basket case needs to figure out his mechanics and find a way to deal with the ridiculous amount of attention he gives to ump calls and every tom dick and larry thing other than making pitches.

Lackey...no idea what he will have for an arm and another ridiculous head case on the mound last time we saw him

Buch....the guy that should be slotted into the #2 behind a legit #1 hopefully. Literally praying he does not run into health issues

Felix.....second year of a young starters ML career...if he pitches well and can up his innings total I will be happy with that

Frank....see Felix above

Cook.....Sort of a guy we can go to if we need him but if the Sox have to rely on Cook they are in a lotta' trouble.

Player X....should be our legit #1 and needs to be a guy that can fill the role both on the mound and off. If we don't get one it is by definition a bridge year. No team starting in the AL East can make a legitimate claim to be contending without a legit #1 which we do not have.

[a700hitter]

You heard it here first' date=' I'm betting that both Beckett and Lester are back heading up the rotation next year. The players run the show in Boston and have for quite awhile now.[/quote']If this is the case, I will take my annual trip to Ft. Myers to watch some Spring Training and have a blast, but I won't be planning too many trips to Fenway, because it will be more of the same.

[jung]

Boy I do not think the Sox will try to get away with keeping Beckett here. I think they will keep Lester here. While the Sox are not going to like paying a big chunk of his salary, I think Beckett is to much associated with the Sox recent failures even with the numbskulls that make up to large a % of the fan base.

 

I do think I see your point though Brennan and I think it is a valid one. The Sox will make a big fuss about making changes that matter and there will be a good deal of noise about players they are looking at just like there was this year. However at the end of it all hardly anything will change. But I do think they end up moving Beckett.

 

Moving Beckett while the right thing to do is still so far away from where they need to go. Unless they grow some big hairy balls, I think they will doom themselves to yet another year of bouncing around just above he basement. Might be OK if they plan it as a bridge year and work it as a bridge year. If not it will just be a wasted year.

[mvp 78]

LL loves Beckett. He'll be here in 2013.

[SCM33]

Can we just release him already?

 

Why didn't we trade him at the deadline again?

[jacksonianmarch]

cause nobody wanted him

[mvp 78]

cause nobody wanted him

 

Who wouldn't want an aging pitcher that limped towards the finish last year and has imploded this year? Plus you'd get him through 2014!

 

The armchair GM's on here were spinning him off for some good pieces too. Too bad Ben is a slow as molasses boob, right?

[kapsis21]

can we have Mark Prior instead of Beckett starting?