Which players ended up costing Francona his job?

[iortiz]

I don't think you understand American industry. If a company loses money here, the head of the company will fire half its staff, make the remaning staff work harder, and give himself a big bonus.

 

Which... is probably the best approach here too. Give Theo a big raise so he doesn't want to leave for the Cubs, and get rid of half the coaching staff.

 

This is not true. I've worked and attended several American and non American transnational companies and if the numbers go wrong, the main responsible is the Main Director/CEO/GM etc. They often walk. Sure, the half of the staff go as well or till the new chief in command arrives and brings his new staff.

[Palodios]

This is not true. I've worked and attended several American and non American transnational companies and if the numbers go wrong' date=' the main responsible is the Main Director/CEO/GM etc. They often walk. Sure, the half of the staff go as well or till the new chief in command arrives and brings his new staff.[/quote']

 

You're mistaken. It happens very frequently, but let's get back to arguing baseball.

[Emmz]

Baseball isn't just a business. Why are you even trying to look at it from the business POV anyways?

[SCM33]

http://sportsofboston.com/2011/10/01/video-kevin-fowler-red-sox-sing-hell-yeah-i-like-beer/

 

Exhibit A, B, C, D, E.

 

Embarrassing.

 

A special thanks to those players at the end of the video as well, how cute.

[a700hitter]

 

I expect that Youk will be injured most of the year and your favorite player, Carl Crawford, will produce virtually nothing.

 

Laughable.

Even if Crawford becomes Carl Crawford again and Youkilis is healthy for the entire season, other injuries will happen-- to position players and pitchers. When is the last time that the Sox had a rotation where at least one starter didn't miss a good chunk of the season? 2004 was the last time. Getting the injured guys healthy for next year will put us in the same situation when other guys go down next season. They need to get deeper. A few BP pieces will not do the job. I think it is laughable that you don't think they have significant work to do this off season.

[bowman]

Tek was the captain, leader, tough as nails guy. I can't believe he didn't get into some faces and take care of business. I'm really disappointed in him. I don't care how they pull it off, Lackless has to go.

[iortiz]

You're mistaken. It happens very frequently' date=' but let's get back to arguing baseball.[/quote']

 

Well, I lived that situation a couple of times at large enterprises and I saw several colleagues passed for that situation as well, even when the financial crisis was in effect around the world. In the end, as GM you assume the whole accountability of the business, this is why you are hired in the first place, to direct the whole business and deliver results (EBITDA), there's no room for excuses or good intentions, trust me.

 

Sure we can take this aside, but I know what I'm talking about.

 

Baseball isn't just a business. Why are you even trying to look at it from the business POV anyways?

 

Sure, but in order to understand some situations you need to understand the business side of the them, like Theo's case.

 

Professional sports are business. There's no other way to look at them. Sure, we can debate about sabermetrics or whatever you want but at some point you will consider the business side as well. Look at the threads. Theo's case is actually pretty simple. He hasn't delivered results the last three years, and it's why his head is in jeopardy.

[Dojji]

I come down somewhere between a700 and example.

 

I think the organization has a lot of work to do but think that the roster will look very similar to this year's. A few vets go and replaced by rookies, maybe one impact signing.

 

The work the organizaition has to do is figure out what in their model is broken and how best to reinvent themselves. Theo's a young GM, but he's not immune from becoming a one trick pony. And if the problem is that the model is fine and they aren't following it, they need to figure out what it will take to get back on the right track.

 

Ultimately getting the front office back on the same page will be more significant in the fate of the franchise than who they sign in the short term

[a700hitter]

I'm going to keep trusting the assessment of statistical methods and things like Expected W-L over the opinions of those who struggle to take a nuanced view.

 

The Sox had an Ex W-L of 94-68 this year. Ex W-L is one of the basics of sabermetric analysis. Look over the past few years. It is a very strong predictor (for the Sox and otherwise) of a team's outcomes.

 

This team, as much as others don't like it, was an outlier. They underperformed their Ex W-L significantly. They scored enough runs and prevented enough runs over the course of a season that should have warranted them a playoff spot.

 

Given that teams have to use actual information rather than the utility of hindsight to construct their teams, this club shouldn't scrap everything and start over.

 

There's no need to re-evaluate the way that baseball is understood. You will not see sabermatricians re-writing their books due to the tremendous new data that the epic failure of the 2011 Sox provided. They will look for why the team under-performed the projections... why the team on the field did not perform as it should have.

 

It just isn't as simple as saying that the team was poorly constructed and, in hindsight, never stood a chance. That's such a simplistic way of looking at a complex game it doesn't even do most of us justice to read it or spend any time lending it credence. I could find more intellectual gold by picking my nose for 3 hours and wiping it on a piece of graph paper.

 

The circular argument of "they weren't good enough because they weren't good enough" doesn't get anybody anywhere. It doesn't move the discussion forward at all in terms of how to best evaluate players moving into a season. It's weak sauce and reductionistic.

 

There were a ton of factors that went into it. To say the team wasn't good enough--and therefore the person who put it together needs to be fired--is reactionary and unintelligent. The argument can be made that there need to be changes, but the argument that it is "because they lost" is like saying that BB should be canned from the Patriots because they haven't won for a number of years despite their superior talent. It isn't convincing in and of itself.

Some one call the Commissioner's Office immediately and tell him that there has been a mistake. The Red Sox are supposed to be in the playoffs and probably the World Series. All of the predictive models prove it beyond a shadow of a doubt. We wuz robbed!!

 

You are making less and less sense as you go on trying to prove that Theo did a bang up job. You blame the players, but now you are saying that there isn't that much wrong with the team and that it doesn't need an overhaul. By saying that they were not good enough, I am not simplistically explaining the reasons for the failure of the 2011 team. I have been repeating that in response to all of the cop out excuses of injury, poor attitude, and drinking light beer. Of course there are a lot of reasons for the failure and of course numbers and statistical models will be used to fix a good deal of it, but the complexity of the problem doesn't change the responsibility for it. Theo is responsible for the failure. You are the one arguing in circles to exonerate him.

 

As to your assertion that the team is pretty close to being a winning team, this is not even consistent with your prior attempts to get Boy Wonder off the hook. When you were scapegoating players on alleged attitude issues, you were willing to say that they should weed out the problems going forward. You were assuming that Youk and Ortiz were bad for team chemistry, and there were the stories of the light beer drinking pitchers. Assume you were right about the bad seeds, you don't think it would be a major overhaul to part ways with the teams cleanup hitter and it's #5 hitter, guys who routinely have OPS around .900? Add to that parting ways with one of the starters for drinking-- even if that starter is Lackey. We'd have to get 2 major sticks and a starter at the very least before they even start building a bullpen. Those are major changes. You are not even being consistent in your arguments, because you are still trying to do anything you can to exonerate the Boy Wonder.

 

BTW: He's now almost the Middle Aged Wonder.

[example1]

Some one call the Commissioner's Office immediately and tell him that there has been a mistake. The Red Sox are supposed to be in the playoffs and probably the World Series. All of the predictive models prove it beyond a shadow of a doubt. We wuz robbed!!

 

You are making less and less sense as you go on trying to prove that Theo did a bang up job. You blame the players, but now you are saying that there isn't that much wrong with the team and that it doesn't need an overhaul. By saying that they were not good enough, I am not simplistically explaining the reasons for the failure of the 2011 team. I have been repeating that in response to all of the cop out excuses of injury, poor attitude, and drinking light beer. Of course there are a lot of reasons for the failure and of course numbers and statistical models will be used to fix a good deal of it, but the complexity of the problem doesn't change the responsibility for it. Theo is responsible for the failure. You are the one arguing in circles to exonerate him.

 

As to your assertion that the team is pretty close to being a winning team, this is not even consistent with your prior attempts to get Boy Wonder off the hook. When you were scapegoating players on alleged attitude issues, you were willing to say that they should weed out the problems going forward. You were assuming that Youk and Ortiz were bad for team chemistry, and there were the stories of the light beer drinking pitchers. Assume you were right about the bad seeds, you don't think it would be a major overhaul to part ways with the teams cleanup hitter and it's #5 hitter, guys who routinely have OPS around .900? Add to that parting ways with one of the starters for drinking-- even if that starter is Lackey. We'd have to get 2 major sticks and a starter at the very least before they even start building a bullpen. Those are major changes. You are not even being consistent in your arguments, because you are still trying to do anything you can to exonerate the Boy Wonder.

 

BTW: He's now almost the Middle Aged Wonder.

 

Quick, someone tell all the statisticians. They've been wrong the whole time. The only measures worth looking at are wins and losses. There is nothing to mine deeper than that. Underappreciated talent, teams that under-perform. They don't exist. The best way to tell which teams are well constructed is to look at who made the playoffs and who didn't. Fangraphs and BIll James should hang 'em up. a700 has figured it out.

[jung]

Well I think there is much that needs fixing with the Sox both in the dugout and in the offices at Yawkey Way.

 

I don't believe that Theo has been benchmarked to winning by his bosses. I believe Theo has been benchmarked to fannies in seats and revenue generation by other means. Their FA signings have been mostly sizzle with very little steak of late and I suspect the "fannies in seats" perspective is at fault. They have regularly gone after the FA market from the perspective of PR not performance nor from the perspective of building a team. That has to be fixed before I think we will see more sensible FA signings. It has made for great PR but has not made for much else. If we want a winning team then the benchmark should be winning.

 

As for the team itself.....some of these guys were not just PR wet dream signings but frankly they were really big gambles at least if your expectation was performance on the field. Lackey was a huge gamble in my view based on the type of pitcher he is, how tough it is to be successful in the AL East as a pitcher and the fact that he had not completed full seasons on the mound in either of the two years preceding his signing by the Sox. It was great PR since he was the biggest name FA pitcher of that year but not so bright if you were looking for results, not based on what is known now but what was known then!

 

Crawford has to be fixed and given the amount of money tied up there they should consider something drastic in that regard....like a full time consultant to straighten him out. He is a card carrying mess at the moment.

 

Some of the guys this team must depend on either proved to be brittle this year or just deteriorated in the second half of the season....just did not make it through the grind. Youk and AGons fall into this category and Youk has to come off the DL after surgery. As such in my view their DH perspective must be aligned with the contemporary view. They can no longer afford to be dependent on a dedicated DH and can really only afford to resign Ortiz if he can be had for short money. Whether we can get Ortiz for short money or not we need to be able rotate guys into the DH slot and rest guys accordingly.

 

As for starting pitching....we may or may not be stuck with Lackey. If we are I am not even sure he will be able to maintain a starting roll next year. Maybe he will, maybe not. His worst stat is swinging strikes which went straight off a cliff. He no longer misses bats and neither kept the ball down nor was precise enough in his location for a guy that has to rely on control. He has not lost anything off his fastball but it was an 88-92 mph fastball when he got here.

 

Beckett must make the transition to a complete pitcher as he is losing mph off his fastball. Hopefully Lester will come back around and Buckholtz is back. Frankly I think Bard is too valuable as the 8th inning guy in this era of declining complete games and I would move Aceves to the rotation and see what happens with that. All by way of saying that if they do nothing they will still not have a #1 pitcher, somebody that will be their stopper. Without a stopper, four game losing streaks turn into 8 game losing streaks so they may have a hard time winning without a #1 regardless of what else they have. Wake should be gone which will mean we will need more pitching whether it is a big name guy or not. We will need to replace Aceves in the relief corp and we will still need another starter somewhere.

 

They are likely stuck bringing Lavarnway up as another season of Salty will have people suicidal. Hopefully Lavarnway can work his way to #1 catcher with Salty to back him. Tek should be gone as I don't see us carrying three catchers.

 

Obviously we need a right fielder.

 

So for the team it is not so much that there are big fixes needed with the exception of Crawford and Lackey. It is just that everywhere you look there is something that needs to be done. That is a good deal to get done in one off season.

 

Oh and we need a manager and our GM might be outta' here as well. How much are they going to let Theo do if he might be gone and who is going to manage this team? That said, there is no way Tito could have been brought back to manage this same group of guys. Frankly management above Tito really does bear some responsibility there regardless of what lying dog Larry says. They left Tito a lame duck and paid for it.

[jacksonianmarch]

why post this twice?

[iortiz]

http://sportsofboston.com/2011/10/01/video-kevin-fowler-red-sox-sing-hell-yeah-i-like-beer/

 

Exhibit A, B, C, D, E.

 

Embarrassing.

 

A special thanks to those players at the end of the video as well, how cute.

 

During the games, huh!

 

Unbelievable.

[Emmz]

I'm going to get a Theo jersey with the number 9001 made, somehow.

[a700hitter]

Quick' date=' someone tell all the statisticians. They've been wrong the whole time. The only measures worth looking at are wins and losses. There is nothing to mine deeper than that. Underappreciated talent, teams that under-perform. They don't exist. The best way to tell which teams are well constructed is to look at who made the playoffs and who didn't. Fangraphs and BIll James should hang 'em up. a700 has figured it out.[/quote']They are a 90 win team and with no changes they will be a 90 win team next season. 162 game seasons have a way of working out all the ups and downs and you come out right where you were supposed to be.

 

I never said that the only important measure is wins and losses. As I agreed with you, there are many reasons for the 2011 failure. They will need to be addressed in several ways, but none of those many reasons exonerate Theo. The buck stops with him. They will make a number of changes. You can bet on it, and they don't usually make changes if they don't think they are necessary.

[SoxSport]

...and this is why American industry and our economy is s*** :harhar:

 

Actually, American industry is pretty strong right now. Earnings are good. But Wall St is worried about the big financial picture. They should remember things after WWII. Lots more debt then--but nobody bitched about it.

 

I'm still waiting for the media/sports bubble to burst.

[example1]

They are a 90 win team and with no changes they will be a 90 win team next season. 162 game seasons have a way of working out all the ups and downs and you come out right where you were supposed to be.

 

I never said that the only important measure is wins and losses. As I agreed with you, there are many reasons for the 2011 failure. They will need to be addressed in several ways, but none of those many reasons exonerate Theo. The buck stops with him. They will make a number of changes. You can bet on it, and they don't usually make changes if they don't think they are necessary.

 

And we're right back where we started... I don't want to exonerate Theo. You don't take the blame off the players or measure wins and losses as the only important thing...

 

Watch out a700, by this time tomorrow we will be arguing that neither of us belives the things above. What's with us, anyway? Jesus.

 

Agreement aside, I disagree with you about the 90 win thing. I am a strong believer in the Pythagorean Theorem. There's been plenty of research done on it, plenty of refining, and it is more than a mere idea. It's pretty solid at estimating what a team's success should have been, if not for luck or particularly stupid (outlier) execution.

 

As far as luck and particularly stupid execution goes, it is a less reliable thing than a player's standard level of production. You (a700) can reasonably expect that David Ortiz is good for a high .300s OBP when given enough ABs. If he has an 0-10 stretch you see that as unlikely and an outlier--not a reflection of his true ability. In other words, his true ability clearly isn't .000 OBP, even though that size may say it is to the untrained eye.

 

Similarly, Josh Beckett or Jon Lester being incapable of winning a game down the stretch is not a reflection of their actual abilities. It is a reflection of a slump. It shouldn't even be interpreted as a trait like "not being able to perform in the clutch", given that a player like Josh Beckett has shown that ability numerous times.

 

Similarly, a SS who throws the ball away on a routine GB should not have that single sample be the main factor in whether he is "good enough" to manage the types of moments a SS needs to handle. Just because he doesn't handle one particular moment does not mean he can't handle those moments in general or that he would be a bad bet to do that moving forward.

 

So, I hold Theo plenty accountable for the mistakes that have been made. There are plenty of poor signings and probably a number of things that could have been done to avoid the outcome this year. At the same time, I firmly believe that this team was good enough but it did not perform. Could it have been better? Absolutely. Would being better have widened their margin for error? Yes.

 

Did this team have a margin for error that would have allowed them to make the playoffs? Yes. Their players squandered it with a combination of pathetic play and apparently s***** teamwork. If they can perform like most of them have for most of their careers, this team will win more than 90 games next year.

 

 

As for replacing players vs. keeping the same team: I think if they kept the same team they would do better than they did this year. However, there are few opportunities to go in different directions and the Sox are presented with one now. Signing a few players to replace the 2011 team with the 2012 team would be one option, but the point of putting together a team is to put together a team for multiple years, not just one year. Players like Youkilis and maybe even Ellsbury or Beckett offer a chance to possibly make moves to improve the club moving forward and they should be explored.

 

Ortiz and Papelbon are different cases that may have their own limitations (Ortiz: years, Papelbon: years/$$).

 

It will undoubtedly be interesting.

[a700hitter]

Abraham on the RBI incident with Ortiz:

 

Just an aside, but virtually every player in baseball complains about the official scorer when something doesn't go their way and then they take it to the manager to try and get it changed. This happens every single day in baseball. Ortiz's mistake was going into a room with a television camera on.

 

The whole idea that he was being selfish or showing up Francona isn't true. They were literally in his office five minutes later laughing about it. The people who are making this into an issue are those who never actually cover baseball.

[example1]

Abraham on the RBI incident with Ortiz:

 

It wasn't a mistake to go into that room. It was a really stupid act by someone who couldn't wait 5 minutes to bitch about an RBI in an appropriate setting. I have read conflicting reports about whether Tito was just fine with that RBI debacle.

 

My beef with Ortiz is less about the RBI and more about how many years and what salary he wants next year. If he can keep hitting like he has been then fine, but I'm skeptical. Also, someone needs to remind him to not get thrown out so much on the bases!

[SoxSport]

Crawford was a mess on all fronts. AGon had a good year stats-wise' date=' but its hard to think of a big clutch hit from him and September. Neither guy seems to have any capacity for leadership. Getting these guys while letting Beltre and VMart walk is looking like a mistake.[/quote']

 

Crawford was a disaster. I don't think he was managed well, either. Sticking him 6th or 7th most of the year, even after he got hot, was a mistake for that calibre of player. Don't think the FO didn't pass the blame around re CC.

 

Adgon is a good player, and Theo got a good deal for him. But he messed up the chemistry in the infield-Youks having to move to 3B. And with, CC, created a LHd heavy lineup in a park made for RHd hitters. That showed Epstein was insensitive to chemistry when he made these acquisitions. And so was the media, always star-oriented, which jumped on the addition of these two "stars" as pushing the Red Sox into the stratosphere.

 

Theo let Beltre go because Beltre had a history of big contract years followed by declines. Plus the Rangers contract offer to age 38 was way beyond Red Sox practice. Besides, Theo had a love affair with AdGon. And that was going to happen.

As for VMart, he would have had to decline Papi's option to fit Vmart in the lineup. He wasn't going to catch full-time. But he would have had a nice switch hitter who could play multi-positions--spelling Youks at 1B. And then there's CC--he wouldn't have signed him if he knew Ells was going to break out. He didn't know where he was with Ells.

 

Things just didn't work out.

 

I think he'd be better off today if he had dumped Papi (in spite of his comeback), and re-signed both VMart and Beltre. Brought Salty in to do the bulk of the catching. Didn't trade for AdGon. Kept Youks-Vmart at 1B/DH. Brought up Kalish to play LF or RF. I think they would have had a better lineup, better defense, and more chemistry. And Kalish would have been healthy and ready.

But that's pure hindsight.

[SoxSport]

It wasn't a mistake to go into that room. It was a really stupid act by someone who couldn't wait 5 minutes to bitch about an RBI in an appropriate setting. I have read conflicting reports about whether Tito was just fine with that RBI debacle.

 

My beef with Ortiz is less about the RBI and more about how many years and what salary he wants next year. If he can keep hitting like he has been then fine, but I'm skeptical. Also, someone needs to remind him to not get thrown out so much on the bases!

 

The problem with Papi is he can't play any positions. He cuts into the team depth. For example, they were better off keeping VMart and declining Papi's option last year. Papi had a big year offensively, but VMart had a good year, too, in Detroit, and he can play 1B and catch, as well as DH. And is a switch hitter. He was also good in the clubhouse. They probably missed him there.

 

The FO has a problem in that it can't cut the cord on older players when it needs to. That has cropped up time and again.

[3rdManOut]

Im wondering, just how much the FO is aware of what goes on in the clubhouse. They cant be that nieve......um, could they?

[a700hitter]

It wasn't a mistake to go into that room. It was a really stupid act by someone who couldn't wait 5 minutes to bitch about an RBI in an appropriate setting. I have read conflicting reports about whether Tito was just fine with that RBI debacle.

 

My beef with Ortiz is less about the RBI and more about how many years and what salary he wants next year. If he can keep hitting like he has been then fine, but I'm skeptical. Also, someone needs to remind him to not get thrown out so much on the bases!

If they fire the idiot third base coach, we should have a lot less runners thrown out. I haven't heard that Bogar has been fired.

[Cairns_Sox]

It wasn't a mistake to go into that room. It was a really stupid act by someone who couldn't wait 5 minutes to bitch about an RBI in an appropriate setting. I have read conflicting reports about whether Tito was just fine with that RBI debacle.

 

My beef with Ortiz is less about the RBI and more about how many years and what salary he wants next year. If he can keep hitting like he has been then fine, but I'm skeptical. Also, someone needs to remind him to not get thrown out so much on the bases!

 

Ortiz said in a interview last night that he didn't know Tito was a interview. What a joke. As if he didn't know where the media room was or what it was used for. It's all about perception.

[WhiskeyBreath]

If they fire the idiot third base coach' date=' we should have a lot less runners thrown out. I haven't heard that Bogar has been fired.[/quote']

 

I doubt Bogar is fired. The organization is high on him and I bet he is promoted.

[a700hitter]

I doubt Bogar is fired. The organization is high on him and I bet he is promoted.

Move him off third base. He definitely cost us a few games this season and last season.

[Cairns_Sox]

Move him off third base. He definitely cost us a few games this season and last season.

 

This.

 

It has been documented that he has cost us. I'd be surprised to see him on third next season.

[italstallianion]

I've seen girls on "My Super Sweet 16" act like less of a diva then Youkilis. He whines about everything. He whined about Ellsbury going to AZ for treatment of some sort while injured instead of staying with the clubhouse the entire time, and that wasn't even this season. (Although Youk whined about it this season)

 

I still think that he's important to the team, but if we can get good value from trading him, and a reliable option to replace him at 3B, then I say get him the f*** out of here. I'm fine holding onto Ortiz for a little while longer, but Wakefield, Varitek, Lackey and Drew should all be gone before next season. (Wakefild due to ability, Varitek due to ability and being a jerk, Drew due to ability, being a jerk and costing too much money, and Lackey due to ability, being a jerk, costing too much money, and being a selfish arrogant diva)

[VA Sox Fan]

I've seen girls on "My Super Sweet 16" act like less of a diva then Youkilis. He whines about everything. He whined about Ellsbury going to AZ for treatment of some sort while injured instead of staying with the clubhouse the entire time, and that wasn't even this season. (Although Youk whined about it this season)

 

I still think that he's important to the team, but if we can get good value from trading him, and a reliable option to replace him at 3B, then I say get him the f*** out of here. I'm fine holding onto Ortiz for a little while longer, but Wakefield, Varitek, Lackey and Drew should all be gone before next season. (Wakefild due to ability, Varitek due to ability and being a jerk, Drew due to ability, being a jerk and costing too much money, and Lackey due to ability, being a jerk, costing too much money, and being a selfish arrogant diva)

 

When has Varitek been a jerk?