2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[User Name]

For the record, As I said, We are a better team than them right now in paper. Maybe you are right, even if the Sox have a major injury to their pitching, it's still unlikely that either of those vastly inferior teams manage a better record than the Sox, Maybe no, But I do not see this highly unlikely IMO. I see a red flag in that regard.

 

Hell, We better stay healthy, As I said, BV and his medical/coaching staff will have a prime roll in our team next season, specially if we go like this.

 

One possibility a lot of poeple seem to be disregarding is the team's ability to acquire players during the season. If something bad happens, the team has the possibility of adding a player during the season with minimal cap implications.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Can we produce a quality baseball discussion? This s*** is getting annoying.

[jacksonianmarch]

Who'd you target for the pen right now if u had a choice? And in a trade, what'd you give up?

[iortiz]

One possibility a lot of poeple seem to be disregarding is the team's ability to acquire players during the season. If something bad happens' date=' the team has the possibility of adding a player during the season with minimal cap implications.[/quote']

 

Yup this is another possibility. I wonder, who would be this pitcher(s) who would cost us 1M-2M (assuming that we finish under the edge of the cap) and could turn the ship to the right direction if something went wrong...

 

 

EDIT: BTW If the strategy this offseason was stay under the cap, IMO it wouldn't make sense to go over it during the season (before the trade deadline).

[jung]

Yup this is another possibility. I wonder, who would be this pitcher who would cost us 1M-2M (assuming that we finish under the edge of the cap) and could turn the ship to the right direction if something went in the wrong direction?

 

If the point here is that there is not much available during the season I would tend to agree. Somebody goes down and you start looking...you are just about at everybody's mercy. You have to be ready to make a move at the point where teams begin to give up on their chances to go anywhere and are also at that point willing to give up somebody decent in hopes that they can improve their chances in some other season. Even then that does not come at 0 cost. You usually end up giving up good prospects to get somebody under those circumstances.

 

It is usually a safety valve for teams that are really romping their way through the season. Management does not want to see a team that is romping its way through the season start to stumble because a player goes down. Does this Sox team look like a team that will be romping through the 2012 season? Not to me it doesn't. Looks to me like a team that has a "chance" to get to the post season but that is it...it has a chance.

[iortiz]

If the point here is that there is not much available during the season I would tend to agree. Somebody goes down and you start looking...you are just about at everybody's mercy. You have to be ready to make a move at the point where teams begin to give up on their chances to go anywhere and are also at that point willing to give up somebody decent in hopes that they can improve their chances in some other season. Even then that does not come at 0 cost. You usually end up giving up good prospects to get somebody under those circumstances.

 

It is usually a safety valve for teams that are really romping their way through the season. Management does not want to see a team that is romping its way through the season start to stumble because a player goes down. Does this Sox team look like a team that will be romping through the 2012 season? Not to me it doesn't. Looks to me like a team that has a "chance" to get to the post season but that is it...it has a chance.

 

Great post jung. Totally agree.

 

BTW it is about availability plus quality plus very low cost or and prospects/proved MLB players in order to change radically the direction of the ship (assuming it is on the wrong direction).

[User Name]

If the point here is that there is not much available during the season I would tend to agree. Somebody goes down and you start looking...you are just about at everybody's mercy. You have to be ready to make a move at the point where teams begin to give up on their chances to go anywhere and are also at that point willing to give up somebody decent in hopes that they can improve their chances in some other season. Even then that does not come at 0 cost. You usually end up giving up good prospects to get somebody under those circumstances.

 

It is usually a safety valve for teams that are really romping their way through the season. Management does not want to see a team that is romping its way through the season start to stumble because a player goes down. Does this Sox team look like a team that will be romping through the 2012 season? Not to me it doesn't. Looks to me like a team that has a "chance" to get to the post season but that is it...it has a chance.

 

I disagree. Every year teams that fall short of expectations start selling pieces at a reduced cost. Be it because it is an expiring contract, that team wants to fortify a position, etc.

 

IMO it would be much easier for the Sox to pull off a trade near the TDL because they will be much more informed about what they have with some prospects and some of the low-value acquisitions they made. If they're still competitive, that is.

 

As i always say, the glass can be half full.

[iortiz]

I disagree. Every year teams that fall short of expectations start selling pieces at a reduced cost. Be it because it is an expiring contract, that team wants to fortify a position, etc.

 

IMO it would be much easier for the Sox to pull off a trade near the TDL because they will be much more informed about what they have with some prospects and some of the low-value acquisitions they made. If they're still competitive, that is.

 

As i always say, the glass can be half full.

 

I think that you are missing something UN?. The cost. How many quality/solid/proved/healthy pitchers will be available and keep/allow you be under the cap?. I just do not see a bunch of pitchers with those characteristics. As I said, if the strategy is stay under the cap (pumpsie's theory) and the things goes bad why will you change that strategy in the middle of season and mostly if the things are already wrong. It wouldn't make sense to me.

[User Name]

I think that you are missing something UN?. The cost. How many quality/solid/proved/healthy pitchers will be available and keep/allow you be under the cap?. I just do not see a bunch of pitchers with those characteristics. As I said' date=' if the strategy is stay under the cap (pumpsie's theory) and the things goes bad why will you change that strategy in the middle of season and mostly if the things are already wrong. It wouldn't make sense to me.[/quote']

 

Per the CBA, players acquired during the season only impact the salary cap for the pro-rated value of their contract for that year.

 

In other words, if the Red Sox were to acquire Wandy Rodriguez at the trade deadline, only a third of his salary would impact the cap.

 

If they go as is, they'll have around six million to play with during the season. If they acquire a guy with a 12 million salary at the deadline, there would be a 4 million impact on the cap, meaning they would still be under the cap. This is a possibility in theory.

 

Of course, this assumes they are still competitive which, given this team's offense, is a very likely possibility.

[jung]

We are so deeply into a gray area here it is not even funny. The issue I think is; will they be competitive enough to be willing to trade away good future prospects against something or somebody at the trading deadline. I guess my point is that I don't view competitive as enough to make that sort of deal worthwhile.

 

Ya' gotta' be well into a good bet to make it into the post season, not the "chance" to make it in that I am rating them at today. If they are beyond the "chance" into "good possibility" then I would say it would be likely that they should be willing to sacrifice future prospects against improving on that good possibility. If they have not improved from the chance position I believe they will occupy at the start of the season then unless somebody wants to throw "God" on the pile in some insanely weighted toward the Sox deal then I would say no.

 

Cash can be a different story. If a team wants to let go of a contract that is ending and and are willing to take cash from the Sox for a rent-a-player that can be fine under almost any circumstances. With the exception of the cash deal it all hinges on where they are at the time.

[User Name]

If the top of the rotation staays relatively healthy, the Sox will be competing for the division at the TDL. Book it.

[RedSoxNC84]

If the top of the rotation staays relatively healthy' date=' the Sox will be competing for the division at the TDL. Book it.[/quote']

 

Even though they have issues staying healthy, I think they can at least make it half the season.

[FredLynn]

Who'd you target for the pen right now if u had a choice? And in a trade' date=' what'd you give up?[/quote']

 

We don't have to give up anyone. Dan Wheeler, to the best of my knowledge, has not signed with anyone. He is out there, and he did a very good job for us last year after he got back from the DL in May.

I would sign him-but only if we remain under the cap.

[FredLynn]

At this point the correct wording is 'there may be one more spot available'. There's a committee made up of MLB & MLBPA reps who have until March 1 to decide if the new format goes into effect for 2012.

 

Really. I thought that was a done deal.

[BSN07]

I think the Sox will add players later in the season. They need to stay under the LT until late April. After that it's all on next years payroll. That and there will be new players available at the deadline that may not be available at this moment.

[FredLynn]

I think the Sox will add players later in the season. They need to stay under the LT until late April. After that it's all on next years payroll. That and there will be new players available at the deadline that may not be available at this moment.

 

Of course most if not all of the impact players will be gone by late April. How often do you see teams adding to the roster in late April?

Besides, I think they should maintain as much flexibility on next year's cap number as possible. There will be a lot of talent available then.

[seabeachfred]

Fred, you sound like a spoiled, ugly sixteen year-old rich girl whining because her daddy got her a Jaguar instead of a porsche. Everyone here knows the team's needs, but there's a difference between discussing the needs and whining. You're whining.

 

It's not that i don't want to read what you have to say, but whatever good things your opinions may have are mired in annoying whining and stupid nicknames.

 

Let it be said, that i haven't advocated for any of you to leave the board, so don't include me, as i said before, in your squabbles.

 

We know who would like us to leave the board UN so you didnt have to tell us that, but I take issue with the whining part. It could be better classified as "frustrated verbiage", all these free agent pitchers and outfielders coming off the board and us not doing anything to sign an outfielder that we now need even more than in my earlier dronings. We still need that No. 4 pitcher and we still havent gotten him. I mean how many times does Palodios and 700 have to say "sign the check Cherington" before our bumbling GM sees what the rest of us do.

 

Now here's one for discussion that might challenge you. Why the hell hasn't Cherington acted on these needs? Why has Henry sat on his wallet this winter? What power does Cherington even have as GM? OK, let's discuss those things. I'm all ears.

 

Back to that first point though. One of the most vociferous advocates for us to leave the board is a person who actually didn't believe I was a Red Sox fan. I still haven't heard him say he was wrong.

[jung]

Actually I think the reasons why BC might not be jumping on any additional FA signings have been discussed at length and often on this board as has the issue of how much power BC may or may not have.

[RedSoxNC84]

 

Now here's one for discussion that might challenge you. Why the hell hasn't Cherington acted on these needs? Why has Henry sat on his wallet this winter? What power does Cherington even have as GM? OK, let's discuss those things. I'm all ears.

 

 

Seems to me, as many have said before, it's all about the LT cap. Even though Lucchino said they would more than likely go over, and some posters have calculated that we are already over.. I still don't think there is enough room on the payroll to sign someone like Oswalt. In my opinion getting a solid starter is way more important than getting another outfielder. Yes, I know we are LHH heavy, and no one wants to see DMac starting in left or right for that matter, that in my mind is still secondary to the rotation. The rotation wins games, not the outfield corners.

 

That said, Cherington himself said he would have to move payroll to make room for someone like Oswalt. I personally think they are trying to look out for the future of the Red Sox, not just the 2012 Sox. Even with the top three of our rotation we have a decent staff, it's not the best, but it surely isn't the worst. Even with the shred of rotation that we have, our offense will help us win a lot of games for sure. There is no question about that.

 

I believe that the Sox are "rebuilding" in a way, and by that I mean they aren't just throwing money at free agents to win right now. I would like to see them win, as would any Sox fan, but I'd like to see them win without having to damage the possibility of winning in the future. Our payroll is already handcuffed due to large contracts, and I don't think it should get any worse. Not to mention the percentage that would have to be paid on the LT would probably affect their ability to make future signings.

[seabeachfred]

I don't think either the WS or the Jays are better than the Sox or even equal to the Sox at this point. I still do think where the rubber meets the road is not the marginal differences between teams but in the marginal difference between results and what they mean for the post season.

 

As I posted earlier the difference between going home and going on seems paper thin to me. 98+ wins likely wins a division. 95 wins likely gets you into the post season. 90 wins and you are likely going home.

 

In my view any team that can win 90 of 162 is a pretty darned good team. This is starting to remind m a little bit of the NFL where it is not unusual any longer for 10 win teams that do not win their division to be going home regardless of the fact that 10-6 is a darned good NFL season.

 

The real problem for me at this point is that the Sox do not look to me like one of those 98+ or 95 win teams. While I do not think teams like the WS or Jays are the equal of the Sox, I do think as currently configured those teams will steal more games from the Sox than they have in the past and make it harder for the Sox to get to something like 95 wins. The Rangers and Angels will likely pound their division rivals more this year than last. The Yankees look like the division leader in the East.

 

The Sox don't look like a 95 win team to me and I don't even think the much sought #4 pitcher gets them over the hump. Granted I am basing much of this on what the team did last year as configured and what it looks like this year as configured AND then compared to the competition it will face this year.

 

Also as I have stated before I discount the end of season mess as some sort of anomaly that should be discounted. You are what you are. The Sox won what they won and lost what they lost.

 

So the arguments/discussions are valid in my view with each side able to make a good case. But when I look at it from the perspective of wins I have a harder time thinking the Sox can get over the hump.

 

I like your take on the 98, 95 and 90 win scenario and think it is pretty close to being spot-on----and we are not in the class of the first two win totals at the present time. Where I do take issue with you is that if Cherington will write that damn check for Oswalt as 700 and Palodios have suggested numerous times, and if we can a decent RH hitting outfielder not named McDonald along with another good arm for the bullpen we can contend for the division title. THAT HAS ALWAYS BEEN MY POSITION. The miserable part of all this is that we seem to be running in place with almost all of us taking this line and for some reason the real power to do something isn't doing it. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, so I've been told. T here is no guarantee that those choice pitchers like Hamels and Cain will be allowed to walk by their respective teams, but there is that bird called Oswalt out there ready to be plucked if Cherington will "write that damned check". Why hasn't he?

[seabeachfred]

I disagree. Every year teams that fall short of expectations start selling pieces at a reduced cost. Be it because it is an expiring contract, that team wants to fortify a position, etc.

 

IMO it would be much easier for the Sox to pull off a trade near the TDL because they will be much more informed about what they have with some prospects and some of the low-value acquisitions they made. If they're still competitive, that is.

 

As i always say, the glass can be half full.

 

One very fatal flaw in your logic......The TRD is July 31, four months into the season. The Red Sox could be out of the race by then if a one or two of their key people, especially on the mound, come up lame. It's happened before----2006 and 2009 and 2010. Besides, it is much more expensive at the deadline. Right now we can sign a FA or two without having to expend any prospects---only money which billionaire John Henry has in abundance. How about Oswalt on the mound and Ross for the outfield? Think that is doable if there is a will to do on the part of the front office? I think it is very doable.

[BSN07]

Of course most if not all of the impact players will be gone by late April. How often do you see teams adding to the roster in late April?

Besides, I think they should maintain as much flexibility on next year's cap number as possible. There will be a lot of talent available then.

 

No, in late mid or late April the day when they calculate the LT is over and they can add payroll then and not get the penalty. It's the same reason they waited to sign Agon last year. It's not 100% as they still went over this year, but I'm guessing they are trying to stay under and will wait even later this season to try to avoid the penalty.

 

Are you serious about no impact players will be available after April? You do realize I was talking more the just FA. of course all the impact FA will be gone. But there will be plenty of players available to be traded for up until the TDL like there is every year.

[jung]

Look I know we want to hammer ownership for suddenly getting cheap but the fact is they spent a ton of money...they just spent it poorly. As I have said before to have expected that the only result was going to be that heads would role is just naive. Sorry it just is.

 

One of the biggest problems I have had that has also been mentioned before is the propensity the Sox have had for taking the top guy in any given FA market every single damed time they can. To me there is no mystery in who the top guy is in any given FA market. It does not take a genius to figure that out. To me they have spent far less time figuring out who represents value to this specific ball club. You cannot tell me that their FA signing process has been focused on value regardless of how much of a James advocate JH seems to be. The top choice, the most expensive option by default cannot represent value and if you take that player every time you can, you cannot convince me that you are focused on value either in the absolute sense or as it relates to this specific team.

[seabeachfred]

If the top of the rotation staays relatively healthy' date=' the Sox will be competing for the division at the TDL. Book it.[/quote']

 

IF USER!!!!! IF. You really want to take that kind of chance? Have any of our so-called "Big Three" ever gone through a whole season healthy? Never!!!!!! If they could it would be swell but we need some backup for them in the likely case that each of the would lose a few starts along the way. That's not a half-full glass; it is realism. Somehow I don't see messrs Germano, Cook, Haeger, Silva or Miller filling that bill. Do you??????

[User Name]

We know who would like us to leave the board UN so you didnt have to tell us that, but I take issue with the whining part. It could be better classified as "frustrated verbiage", all these free agent pitchers and outfielders coming off the board and us not doing anything to sign an outfielder that we now need even more than in my earlier dronings. We still need that No. 4 pitcher and we still havent gotten him. I mean how many times does Palodios and 700 have to say "sign the check Cherington" before our bumbling GM sees what the rest of us do.

 

Now here's one for discussion that might challenge you. Why the hell hasn't Cherington acted on these needs? Why has Henry sat on his wallet this winter? What power does Cherington even have as GM? OK, let's discuss those things. I'm all ears.

 

Back to that first point though. One of the most vociferous advocates for us to leave the board is a person who actually didn't believe I was a Red Sox fan. I still haven't heard him say he was wrong.

 

This is another thing that's very annoying. You keep condemning Cherington like it's his fault they closed the purse strings regardless of the point about his power. It is pure idiocy. I mean criticize the guy for valid reasons.

[seabeachfred]

Seems to me, as many have said before, it's all about the LT cap. Even though Lucchino said they would more than likely go over, and some posters have calculated that we are already over.. I still don't think there is enough room on the payroll to sign someone like Oswalt. In my opinion getting a solid starter is way more important than getting another outfielder. Yes, I know we are LHH heavy, and no one wants to see DMac starting in left or right for that matter, that in my mind is still secondary to the rotation. The rotation wins games, not the outfield corners.

 

That said, Cherington himself said he would have to move payroll to make room for someone like Oswalt. I personally think they are trying to look out for the future of the Red Sox, not just the 2012 Sox. Even with the top three of our rotation we have a decent staff, it's not the best, but it surely isn't the worst. Even with the shred of rotation that we have, our offense will help us win a lot of games for sure. There is no question about that.

 

I believe that the Sox are "rebuilding" in a way, and by that I mean they aren't just throwing money at free agents to win right now. I would like to see them win, as would any Sox fan, but I'd like to see them win without having to damage the possibility of winning in the future. Our payroll is already handcuffed due to large contracts, and I don't think it should get any worse. Not to mention the percentage that would have to be paid on the LT would probably affect their ability to make future signings.

 

Very good post RedSox84, but you sort of created a Catch 22. We have needs right? The only way to solve those needs are through free agency or trades. The first would cost us money and invade the cap; the second one risks us losing some of our better prospects like Lavarnway, Kalish and Middlebrooks. There is a third alternative.....do nothing at all, which seems to be what we're currently doing but that pretty much puts us at real risk for an early exit home next October. The front office has to decide if it is worth fighting for a title this year and be honest and tell the fans about what their aim is.

[jung]

The more I think about it the more I don't wonder that the reason JH has tightened the purse strings is because he is telling LL and anybody else that has had an impact on the FA signing process that he has had it. "OK you f*** nuts I am sick and tired of seeing you guys just go and grab the most expensive guy you can find in any given year at any given position. What the f*** does that have to do with contemporary personnel evaluation practices?"

 

The front office has to decide if it is worth fighting for a title this year and be honest and tell the fans about what their aim is.

Honestly the Sox do have a decision to make but I don't think there is a snowball's chance in hell of them telling us their intentions. We will have to vet those for ourselves.

[seabeachfred]

This is another thing that's very annoying. You keep condemning Cherington like it's his fault they closed the purse strings regardless of the point about his power. It is pure idiocy. I mean criticize the guy for valid reasons.

 

Criticize for valid reasons you say? How about this. How about his dumb decision to offer Ortiz arbitration, which handcuffed us in our quest to add the pitching we need so badly. How about his Spring Training invitation to Varitek, later denied by some, that he issued a week ago. Both legitimate in my opinion. And has he even tried to persuade Henry to spend a little money to upgrade the team that he knows is not up to par for a title run this year? The fault is certainly not all his but he is the GM and I assume he is more than just a paper tiger.

[iortiz]

Per the CBA, players acquired during the season only impact the salary cap for the pro-rated value of their contract for that year.

 

In other words, if the Red Sox were to acquire Wandy Rodriguez at the trade deadline, only a third of his salary would impact the cap.

 

If they go as is, they'll have around six million to play with during the season. If they acquire a guy with a 12 million salary at the deadline, there would be a 4 million impact on the cap, meaning they would still be under the cap. This is a possibility in theory.

 

Of course, this assumes they are still competitive which, given this team's offense, is a very likely possibility.

 

I thought that we were 1 or 2 M under the cap. Either way, I do not like that scenario (look for solid/heathy/proved pitcher in order to right the ship.). Look, The same situation happened last year. We needed this type of pitcher and we only could grab another injury prone pitcher on the edge of the TDL, regardless the money was not likely the issue at the time.

 

My point is, respect the strategy. If it is stay under the cap (beyond whether I like it or not) in order to win in the mid/long future, then we must show consistency in that regard (do not go over it in the middle of next season).

[FredLynn]

No, in late mid or late April the day when they calculate the LT is over and they can add payroll then and not get the penalty. It's the same reason they waited to sign Agon last year. It's not 100% as they still went over this year, but I'm guessing they are trying to stay under and will wait even later this season to try to avoid the penalty.

 

Are you serious about no impact players will be available after April? You do realize I was talking more the just FA. of course all the impact FA will be gone. But there will be plenty of players available to be traded for up until the TDL like there is every year.

 

Generally players are swapped or signed either in the offseason or at the trading deadline. I can't remember a player that was obtained in late April. Can you?

Also, although I don't know all the details of the cap, its illogical to think that somehow if they just delay signing guys until late April they are off the hook, that that salary doesn't count either this year or next. Well this year we can't afford it if we are going to be under the cap, and next year we will need ALL of that money to sign some great FA SPs.