2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[User Name]

That's actually incorrect. The option becomes available. The club still has to exercise the option.

 

Per Cots, the actual stipulation is:

 

Well according to Tim Dierkes from MLBTR, as well as a couple of other websites, the option is already under effect. Maybe they exercised it already?

[example1]

Nice work SoxFanForsyth. Good discussion and finally some digging in the dirt on this issue. This is how discussion should go around here.

 

It looks like the result is that there isn't any legitimate cap space currently, and that they are aiming to stay under the LT (despite Gammons claims that they are already over it, so who gives a s***). Hence, minimal ability to pick up a guy like Oswalt.

 

I'm feeling more optimistic about Bard at this point, and think that one of those 3 guys, or Aceves or Doubront or Miller or someone could take the #5 spot with a good showing in the offseason and spring training. Oswalt would be nice, but I seriously doubt that their success this season will depend on him.

[Palodios]

Well according to Tim Dierkes from MLBTR' date=' as well as a couple of other websites, the option is already under effect. Maybe they exercised it already?[/quote']

 

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7148697/boston-red-sox-john-lackey-tommy-john-surgery

 

"It's based on days missed, it's not based on a specific surgery," Cherington said. "We'll see what happens next year."

[/Quote]

 

It sounds like they can't exercise it until he's missed actual time. I wonder if it would it be possible to negotiate this with Lackey in advance?

[User Name]

Nice work SoxFanForsyth. Good discussion and finally some digging in the dirt on this issue. This is how discussion should go around here.

 

It looks like the result is that there isn't any legitimate cap space currently, and that they are aiming to stay under the LT (despite Gammons claims that they are already over it, so who gives a s***). Hence, minimal ability to pick up a guy like Oswalt.

 

I'm feeling more optimistic about Bard at this point, and think that one of those 3 guys, or Aceves or Doubront or Miller or someone could take the #5 spot with a good showing in the offseason and spring training. Oswalt would be nice, but I seriously doubt that their success this season will depend on him.

 

My money is on Padilla. He's a headcase, but he's got great stuff.

[Palodios]

Nice work SoxFanForsyth. Good discussion and finally some digging in the dirt on this issue. This is how discussion should go around here.

 

It looks like the result is that there isn't any legitimate cap space currently, and that they are aiming to stay under the LT (despite Gammons claims that they are already over it, so who gives a s***). Hence, minimal ability to pick up a guy like Oswalt.

 

I'm feeling more optimistic about Bard at this point, and think that one of those 3 guys, or Aceves or Doubront or Miller or someone could take the #5 spot with a good showing in the offseason and spring training. Oswalt would be nice, but I seriously doubt that their success this season will depend on him.

 

I feel optimistic about Bard as well, but I think one more starter is pretty crucial right now, even if that is Saunders. I don't think we can trust the top 3 to stay healthy all season, and Bard won't be able to give more than 150 innings. I also don't think the Red Sox can afford to lose both Aceves/Bard from the pen, especially with Bailey's low inning counts.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Well if that's the case, they should have around $5.2mm to drop. If players like Ryan Sweeney and Nick Punto keep us from going after a guy like Roy Oswalt, I'm going to be furious.

 

I still think the play is to dish Youkilis + 1 for Jair Jurrens, clear some space, and sign Oswalt. Let Aviles play 3B for the Sox (Aviles OPS'd .924 vs LHP last year, Youk OPS'd .987, so not a huge drop off, plus Aviles slugged .576 vs LHP, whereas Youk slugged .561 vs LHP).

 

Rotation of Lester - Beckett - Buchholz - Jurrjens - Oswalt

 

Ellsbury - Crawford - Pedroia - Gonzo - Ortiz - Aviles - Salty - Sweeney - Scutaro

 

Bullpen of Bailey, Bard, Aceves, Melancon, Morales, Jenks, Albers

[example1]

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7148697/boston-red-sox-john-lackey-tommy-john-surgery

 

 

 

It sounds like they can't exercise it until he's missed actual time. I wonder if it would it be possible to negotiate this with Lackey in advance?

 

Perhaps they could add a clause whereby Lackey is required to sit in the locker room and eat any fried chicken and drink any beer that other players try to cart in without Bobby V knowing. Lackey becomes the fried chicken and beer vacuum, gains tons of weight but preserves the health of the other players.

 

Also, he could turn into an obnoxious prick and gently dissuade Beckett and Lester from wanting to hang out after games...

 

Lackey (drunk): "Hey! Guysss! Let's f***in' go OUT! Let's DO this!"

Beckett: "Uhh, no John, I think you've had enough. God, you stink."

Lester: "Yeah, John, what have you done to yourself. You have chicken grease on your face. You look horrible".

Beckett: "Yeah man, you've really gone over the edge. Why are your knuckles bleeding?"

Lackey (points at mirror): "Pffff. That ugly f*** in the window gave me a look. f***ing douchebag."

[SoxFanForsyth]

Nice work SoxFanForsyth. Good discussion and finally some digging in the dirt on this issue. This is how discussion should go around here.

 

It looks like the result is that there isn't any legitimate cap space currently, and that they are aiming to stay under the LT (despite Gammons claims that they are already over it, so who gives a s***). Hence, minimal ability to pick up a guy like Oswalt.

 

I'm feeling more optimistic about Bard at this point, and think that one of those 3 guys, or Aceves or Doubront or Miller or someone could take the #5 spot with a good showing in the offseason and spring training. Oswalt would be nice, but I seriously doubt that their success this season will depend on him.

 

Thanks man - There was just so much discussion around an unknown number, hopefully we can have a little more realistic discussions if we know around what we have to spend.

[User Name]

Well if that's the case, they should have around $5.2mm to drop. If players like Ryan Sweeney and Nick Punto keep us from going after a guy like Roy Oswalt, I'm going to be furious.

 

I still think the play is to dish Youkilis + 1 for Jair Jurrens, clear some space, and sign Oswalt. Let Aviles play 3B for the Sox (Aviles OPS'd .924 vs LHP last year, Youk OPS'd .987, so not a huge drop off, plus Aviles slugged .576 vs LHP, whereas Youk slugged .561 vs LHP).

 

Rotation of Lester - Beckett - Buchholz - Jurrjens - Oswalt

 

Ellsbury - Crawford - Pedroia - Gonzo - Ortiz - Aviles - Salty - Sweeney - Scutaro

 

Bullpen of Bailey, Bard, Aceves, Melancon, Morales, Jenks, Albers

 

Jurrjens would get absolutely destroyed in the AL East. If the idea is to move Youk for pitching, it better be a superior option to Jair J.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Jurrjens would get absolutely destroyed in the AL East. If the idea is to move Youk for pitching' date=' it better be a superior option to Jair J.[/quote']

 

I think, if he is healthy, he could translate well into the AL East. Since I lived in TN so long, I was able to catch quite a few Braves games. He's got really good stuff IMO, just has a hard time staying healthy, a la Youkilis right now.

 

Reminds me a good bit of Buchholz. Good fastball, good change up. Not a whole lot of K's, but knows how to pitch to contact well.

[Bellhorn04]

Thanks man - There was just so much discussion around an unknown number' date=' hopefully we can have a little more realistic discussions if we know around what we have to spend.[/quote']

 

Sorry if I missed it, but did you factor the payroll benefits add-on into your luxury tax calculations?

[SoxFanForsyth]

I did not. I'm actually not sure where to get those numbers. If they are over $2-3mm, then we're already over the LT threshold, and we should just go after Oswalt

[Elktonnick]

Jurrjens would get absolutely destroyed in the AL East. If the idea is to move Youk for pitching' date=' it better be a superior option to Jair J.[/quote']

 

You know that because ????? He beat the Phils twice as well as beating Baltimore and Texas last year. Padilla is crazy. He is more likely to revert to form i.e. nuts than Jurrjens not doing well in ALE.

[Bellhorn04]

I did not. I'm actually not sure where to get those numbers. If they are over $2-3mm' date=' then we're already over the LT threshold, and we should just go after Oswalt[/quote']

 

My understanding is that the benefits add-on will be around 10.5 million.

 

The Red Sox final 2011 payroll number for LT purposes was 189.4 million, which was 11.4 million over the limit, taxed at 30% = 3.4 million. Another way to guesstimate the 2012LT payroll is to take the 2011 figure, deduct the salaries that are gone and add on the new salaries.

 

I just read that there's a 'transitional rate' of 42.5% (instead of 40%) for 'third-time offenders' for 2012 only.

[FredLynn]

Nice work SoxFanForsyth. Good discussion and finally some digging in the dirt on this issue. This is how discussion should go around here.

 

It looks like the result is that there isn't any legitimate cap space currently, and that they are aiming to stay under the LT (despite Gammons claims that they are already over it, so who gives a s***). Hence, minimal ability to pick up a guy like Oswalt.

 

I'm feeling more optimistic about Bard at this point, and think that one of those 3 guys, or Aceves or Doubront or Miller or someone could take the #5 spot with a good showing in the offseason and spring training. Oswalt would be nice, but I seriously doubt that their success this season will depend on him.

 

Thats what it seems like, that they are under the cap, barely, and are working to keep under the cap. I admit that there are probably intricacies that none of us are aware of. Staying under the cap makes sense; its a sound business strategy, though it won't make any fans happy. It makes no sense whatsoever to go over the cap slightly since any excess salary over the cap triggers a 40% premium on the tax next year. I hope they know what they are doing.

[FredLynn]

Its hard to find the value of benefits for the Red Sox. I found this, which just says that contracts + benefits are counted:

 

The Yankees pay at a 40 percent rate on the amount of their payroll over $178 million, a figure that includes the average annual values of contracts plus benefits

 

Bellhorn: where did you come up with the $10M figure? That seems high to me.

[User Name]

You know that because ????? He beat the Phils twice as well as beating Baltimore and Texas last year. Padilla is crazy. He is more likely to revert to form i.e. nuts than Jurrjens not doing well in ALE.

 

Doesn't miss bats, high LD%, low average FB speed, only three pitches, moving from Atlanta to Boston, advanced statistics don't treat him well.

 

I think that's a more convincing argument than beating the Phils' middling offense, a win over Texas and Baltimore. That's a tiny sample size, and shouldn't be the pillar for an analysis about the guy.

[iortiz]

Seems like Pumpsie's prophesy is in effect. Damn you Pumpsie! :harhar:

 

On the other hand, If we are already over the cap and we do not sign Oswalt I will be pissed off.

[jung]

Well if they are in fact over the LT cap and that benefits contribution would seem to be the killer, then if they are able to get back under again next year and stay under for three more consecutive years then they get back to a 0% rate again and they have their get out of jail free card.

 

On the other hand with a couple of notable exceptions, going over for the guys they have signed so far would not appear to make much sense either. Maybe there is a grand plan to trade off salary, collect some credits and get back under this year but it seems unlikely if that Benefits Plan payments amount is accurate. I have been trying to find information about the actual Benefits Plan Payments calculation for last year plus any of the other benefits related adds to the LT cap as opposed to the estimated amount but have not found them as yet.

[FredLynn]

Couple more articles:

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/tag/luxury-tax/

 

And THIS, which seems to support Bellhorn's figures, or exceed them slightly:

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2011/12/05/a-look-at-the-red-sox-payroll-for-2012/

[User Name]

If they're already over the luxury tax, they better sign/trade for a friggin' pitcher.

[Bellhorn04]

Couple more articles:

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/tag/luxury-tax/

 

And THIS, which seems to support Bellhorn's figures, or exceed them slightly:

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2011/12/05/a-look-at-the-red-sox-payroll-for-2012/

 

That second link you posted is a very good summary of the numbers.

[FredLynn]

That second link you posted is a very good summary of the numbers.

 

I added it up to about $174.1M. Is that what you get?

[jung]

The second one puts us just a tad under and it seems to include all of the correct components all be it with a few estimates in there. Being a tad under would at least seem consistent with what they are doing or I should say appear to be doing.

[User Name]

But then if a couple of the retreads they've been signing are needed at the MLB level, they will go over the LT either way.

[FredLynn]

But then if a couple of the retreads they've been signing are needed at the MLB level' date=' they will go over the LT either way.[/quote']

 

I think they will make sure that doesn't happen

[Bellhorn04]

I added it up to about $174.1M. Is that what you get?

 

I get 178 million. All those small salaries at the end have to be added together. Not sure why he didn't total it.

[jung]

But then if a couple of the retreads they've been signing are needed at the MLB level, they will go over the LT either way.

 

Well they got $4M to go by those calculations. If that is accurate that is probably a couple retreads and then that puts some meat to the comments that they are insisting on moving some salary to bring in salary. At least that is not the quagmire I have been trying to digest for the last few days.

[FredLynn]

I get 178 million. All those small salaries at the end have to be added together. Not sure why he didn't total it.

 

Its 129.4+30.4+1.3+12.7. Thats 174.1. What am I missing?

[jung]

All those small salaries at the end have to be added together. Not sure why he didn't total it.

 

Your right...he only has $1.6M allocated to three unnamed players but that isn't enough. So they are already cutting into the margin to the cap limit.

 

Still and all, they could actually be just barely under looking for some way to move salary to bring in salary which is what the pundits appear to be saying. Now it maybe boils down to how cleverly they move salary and how cleverly they bring salary.