2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[SoxSport]

Looks to me like Hank Steinbrenner is convinced the Yankees need another expensive starter, and isn't willing to wait until next year. He is now paying $12 mil a year to a setup guy, Soriano, and he will probably overpay for another starter. Against the better judgement of his GM, Cashman. Hank should listen to his GM, but the Steinbrenners are control freaks, and Hank seems to be winning obsessed like his father was. In NY, winning is a very serious business. It is the center of the TV/Internet sports media.

 

The Red Sox should wait for next year when the FA starters are better, or trade for a pitcher.

[ORS]

I think that is a combination of drafting and development. Seems like that stockpile will never end.

Because they don't trade them away for players like Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez. They keep them because they have to, they can't afford premiere talent.

 

Why does everyone forget this when they start comparing MiLB systems?

[jacksonianmarch]

Looks to me like Hank Steinbrenner is convinced the Yankees need another expensive starter, and isn't willing to wait until next year. He is now paying $12 mil a year to a setup guy, Soriano, and he will probably overpay for another starter. Against the better judgement of his GM, Cashman. Hank should listen to his GM, but the Steinbrenners are control freaks, and Hank seems to be winning obsessed like his father was. In NY, winning is a very serious business. It is the center of the TV/Internet sports media.

 

The Red Sox should wait for next year when the FA starters are better, or trade for a pitcher.

 

If they can get Edwin Jackson on a 1 yr deal they better do it. Yes, it closes the spot for a guy like Hughes, but it certainly sures up the spot with dependable #3 level production. Anything more than a 1 yr deal is a bad idea.

[User Name]

Because they don't trade them away for players like Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez. They keep them because they have to, they can't afford premiere talent.

 

Why does everyone forget this when they start comparing MiLB systems?

 

Because it interferes with the agenda of unfairly criticizing Theo Epstein.

[jung]

Because they don't trade them away for players like Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez. They keep them because they have to, they can't afford premiere talent.

 

I completely agree here. This is I think the more significant element of their process than the oft mentioned top picks generated from successive crummy seasons.

 

The fact is that most prospects fall by the wayside never making it to the bigs and I think a studied analysis of the percentages would show that being a high draft pick in baseball does not greatly improve the odds that the player will make it to the bigs but only marginally improves it. Baseball is an extremely complicated game. Even just the physical attributes of hand to eye coordination cull the herd especially for everyday players as the competition gets tougher. In my case, could not hit the curve ball to save my skin. Pretty good fastball hitter but "meat" for anybody with even a decent hook, never mind a 12/6 hook. If you can't hit the curve ball you are often more vulnerable to other pitches not the fastball as well. Pitchers have their own physical issues to deal with as well and then there are the other aspects of the game and then injury.

 

Baseball does not enjoy the ability to simply test a guy for his speed, strength, size, jumping ability and quickness and judge the player to be capable like football. Lets face it, many pro baseball players look like they have been using the one armed curl as their sole training tool.

 

So I am inclined to reward the Rays for having the fortitude to hang on to their prospects and grow them to the point where most of the elements that identify a prospect with a real chance to make it are exposed. It is the willingness to develop that makes the difference.

 

Teams that regularly trade away their prospects more often point to the low percentage of prospects to MLB players as the basis for their propensity to trade them and it is hard to argue against that.

 

Unfortunately like so many things in baseball if you allow yourself to go balls to the walls one way or the other, you end up paying for it. If you really only try to develop players that have identified themselves as not only MLB capable but star MLB capable then you rarely end up with guys that can work their way into your MLB roster and provide more cost controlled depth and more capable depth for that matter. You don't have relatively young, healthy bodies filling those slots and instead have old broken down war horses.

 

I think this is where the Sox have been guilty. Hardly anybody makes it up out of the Sox system that does not get to the All Star team. That is just unnatural and suggests that the Sox are to willing to trade away guys that do not have the imprimatur of greatness stamped on them and leave themselves lacking in players that can provide depth for the MLB team.

 

Having a few grizzled vets around is not a bad thing. If however that is the only way you can gain depth you end up paying to much for it to often and are many times left with a broken heart ala' Mike Cameron. You end up with names on your roster that look impressive but are shells of their former selves, unable to even provide you a decent game now and again or a decent at bat.

[User Name]

The fact is that most prospects fall by the wayside never making it to the bigs and I think a studied analysis of the percentages would show that being a high draft pick in baseball does not greatly improve the odds that the player will make it to the bigs but only marginally improves it. Baseball is an extremely complicated game. Even just the physical attributes of hand to eye coordination cull the herd especially for everyday players as the competition gets tougher. In my case' date=' could not hit the curve ball to save my skin. Pretty good fastball hitter but "meat" for anybody with even a decent hook, never mind a 12/6 hook. If you can't hit the curve ball you are often more vulnerable to other pitches not the fastball as well. Pitchers have their own physical issues to deal with as well and then there are the other aspects of the game and then injury.[/quote']

 

I think this analysis is incorrect. There's a much higher percentage of a 1st, second, third rounder making the Majors than a MiLB pick under that. The "oft mentioned high draft position" has brought them Evan Longoria, the now member of our team Carl Crawford, David Price, Matt Moore, BJ Upton, and several other players from their core, as well as allowing them to acquire upper-tier, cost-controlled talent (Delmon Young for Matt Garza). The high draft position is very important and not to be underrated.

[FredLynn]

Thank you Fred. The same; if you happen to to comedown to Monterrey, let me know, I'd take you to eat "Cabrito" (typical Monterrey dish) with tortillas (hand-made), salsa picante and cold beer.

 

BTW Some of My wife's family live in SD. They live in La Jolla. Very nice people. I love SD, beautiful city. We are planning to go to Napa. We are huge red wine fans. I'll let you know.

 

Napa is practically in my backyard Ortiz. Its only about a 40 minute drive from here. I lived in St Helena, in the heart of the Napa Valley wine country, for 10 years. When you come up here let me know. I can show you around that valley and the next valley over, the Sonoma area, where I think the wines are even better.

[example1]

FWIW, this thread is now the longest in Talksox history (most replies). That might be the most interesting thing about the thread.

[Rdsxmbnt]

FWIW' date=' this thread is now the longest in Talksox history (most replies). That might be the most interesting thing about the thread.[/quote']

 

And to think the team has only acquired two MR's, and a utility player in that time span

[VA Sox Fan]

FWIW' date=' this thread is now the longest in Talksox history (most replies). That might be the most interesting thing about the thread.[/quote']

 

[iortiz]

Because they don't trade them away for players like Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez. They keep them because they have to, they can't afford premiere talent.

 

Why does everyone forget this when they start comparing MiLB systems?

 

This is a good point. Nevertheless you are missining the central point again, which is: in the recent years (3-4 years) TB has been a better team regardless their resources. Friedman and their crew have drafted and developed pretty well their farm, to the point that they have owened us recently. Neither small market team can presume this in the recent years. On the other hand, Boston have failed in both in the recent years, we have made terrible FA signing (some are clogging our payroll, right now) and our farm is not encouraging (I'm not sure where it is ranked in all baseball, I presume that it is not in a good position.), regardless the lack of professionalism, leadership and discipline in the clubhouse. We have failed to the point that a lot of people have walked this offseason which is good for us. Notice that Nobody is taking away Theo's credit before 2008, but was time to move on and point to other horizons. This is basically what I've been saying all offseason long.

 

BL. IMO Friedman >>> Theo in the last 3-4 years amd IMO Friedman has been the best GM in all baseball in the recent years.

[a700hitter]

I don't feel like spending much time to make this point because no matter how much time I spend you will disagree. Again, you're consistent.

 

However, I think having Buchholz (in theory) being healthy will be a huge addition. I also think they are going to add one more SP and will have better MLB caliber depth in 2012 than they did in 2011. Finally, Lester had a relatively poor year last year. He's young and has some of the best talent in the league. There's a very good chance he will return to form.

Take all the time you want in replying. I just don't think there are any very good arguments to believe that the 2012 pitching "as currently constructed" will be better than the 2011 pitching. If there were any strong arguments people would be all over it. No one, let me repeat, no one is disagreeing that if the Sox get another starting pitcher that the 2012 pitching will be improved. As of now, they have not acquired that pitcher, and if they don't acquire another pitcher it is very difficult to make an argument that the 2012 pitching will be improved.

 

Arguing that Buchholz will be healthy for the whole year is not an effective argument. Even if his back injury doesn't recur, I had pointed out that the top 3 pitchers in our rotation have not stayed healthy for an entire season for many years. I wouldn't be betting that they will all stay healthy this year.

 

While I agree that Lester could do better this year, do you really think Beckett will pitch to the same ERA in 2012.

 

BTW Clear your pm mailbox. I am trying to reply to your questions about Fort Myers.

[iortiz]

And when you come to Boston I would really enjoy meeting you as well. And guess what? Boston has several really' date=' really good Mexican restaurants. One of them is within a ten minute walk from Fenway "Sol Azteca". My friend owns the joint.[/quote']

 

Hopefully I'll go in July, so... Fred, let's Go!

 

Party at iortiz's place?

 

Sure, everyone is welcome! :thumbsup:

 

Napa is practically in my backyard Ortiz. Its only about a 40 minute drive from here. I lived in St Helena' date=' in the heart of the Napa Valley wine country, for 10 years. When you come up here let me know. I can show you around that valley and the next valley over, the Sonoma area, where I think the wines are even better.[/quote']

 

Excellent Fred. I'll let you know, thank you!

[Station 13]

Asking Price Drops For Oswalt, Kuroda, Jackson

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [January 13 at 12:23pm CST]

 

The asking prices for top free agent starters have dropped significantly, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. Roy Oswalt is said to be asking for $8MM, Hiroki Kuroda’s asking for $10-11MM and Edwin Jackson’s asking price has also dropped.

 

Oswalt and Kuroda seek one-year deals, while Jackson’s agent, Scott Boras, seeks a five-year deal. Each of the three starters is one of the top five players remaining on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents. Last week MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained which teams could be looking for starting pitching.

[Station 13]

Don't f*** this up Ben.

[FredLynn]

The pitching staff has not added any significant talent and has finished NINTH in ERA two years running. It is unreasonable to expect that somehow we will be much better next year-just as it is unlikely that the staff will be much worse. Until we add talent, we will still have a mediocre pitching staff and will be unable to make a real run at a ring.

[iortiz]

Because it interferes with the agenda of unfairly criticizing Theo Epstein.

 

Nahhh UN?. You could think that I'm against Theo or that I hate him, I don't. I have given him credit for what he achieved but IMO, It was time to move on, look at the recent years. The last collapse was only the cherry on the cake. I would have liked Friedman as GM. IMO he has been the best in that department in the recent years. IMO He could have given you the best of both worlds, good farm, good trades/FA signings. Hopefully Ben shows great skills as GM. We'll see.

[FredLynn]

Hopefully I'll go in July, so... Fred, let's Go!

 

 

 

Sure, everyone is welcome! :thumbsup:

 

 

 

Excellent Fred. I'll let you know, thank you!

 

Fred does not live near the Napa Valley. Its from me....and its Pumpsie Green. When you decide when you are coming up I can send you my contact information.

[a700hitter]

Basically I think they are trying to wait out the Yankees, see which one of the two the Yanks sign first, then grab the other one.

The danger in this approach is if the Rangers or someone other than than Yankees sign one of these guys. If that happens, we will be in a bidding war with the Yankees for the remaining pitcher. That outcome will not favor the Sox.

[FredLynn]

Ortiz, Fred lives near LA; I live near the Napa Valley. If you are coming here in July there is a chance we can wave to each other as we pass by airborn. I will be in Cozumel on a diving trip at the end of the month. If you make it up here earlier let me know and I can show you around the wine region.

Gotta split to the gym.

[iortiz]

Fred does not live near the Napa Valley. Its from me....and its Pumpsie Green. When you decide when you are coming up I can send you my contact information.

 

My bad Pumpsie! I meant you. I really appreciate your hospitality. You are very kind . I'll let you know when We go. We have planned this trip for years, but for different reasons we haven't gone. Hopefully this is the year. BTW you are very welcome as well to my home in Monterrey, Mex.

 

EDIT. Fred could join us, LA is not that far, is it?

[jung]

For first rounder picks the % for making the big league club it is pretty good. 64% of them make it with 48% of them playing for three years or more.

 

It is a pretty steep slope to the second rounders. Second rounders make it at a rate of 41% with 25% of them playing for three years or more.

 

Third rounders make it at a rate of 31% with 20% of those playing for three years or more.

 

Fourth and fifth rounders both make it at a rate of 21% with about 13% staying for three years or more.

 

Past the fifth round I don't really think there is much there to even talk about. I guess they need guys to fill out their minor league rosters or I am not even sure they would have those rounds.

 

So I will grant you that it is relatively high for first rounders but I have never seen a breakout for high first rounders vs low first rounders and everybody gets a pick.

 

From the second through the fifth rounds, the drop off is not that steep and is virtually identical for the fourth and fifth rounds. At worst 1 out of 5 prospects will make it to your big league team even from those rounds.

 

Again my point is that I cannot see the logic in leaving the system thin of guys that you can bring up for depth into a worse case 1 out of 5 even in the fourth and fifth rounds. That does not make much sense to me when the result is Mike Cameron or some of other dregs that have occupied a Red Sox uniform. In addition since everybody gets a first round pick it still boils down to whether or not you develop them or trade them even in that round.

[iortiz]

Ortiz, Fred lives near LA; I live near the Napa Valley. If you are coming here in July there is a chance we can wave to each other as we pass by airborn. I will be in Cozumel on a diving trip at the end of the month. If you make it up here earlier let me know and I can show you around the wine region.

Gotta split to the gym.

 

The idea is go to Boston in July and in August to Napa. Is it a good month to go to Napa and taste wine?

 

BTW Cozumel is awesome, I have some friends in Quintanarro (Cancun, Cozumel, Chetumal, etc.)

[jung]

While I believe there will be much more that will define the Sox 2012 season than how they handle these three FA SPer's, this is sort of defining moment for he Sox management in that I can't see these guys falling farther except maybe Jackson. I assume he is still looking for 5 years.

[ORS]

The pitching staff has not added any significant talent and has finished NINTH in ERA two years running. It is unreasonable to expect that somehow we will be much better next year-just as it is unlikely that the staff will be much worse. Until we add talent' date=' we will still have a mediocre pitching staff and will be unable to make a real run at a ring.[/quote']

I think Bailey and Melancon constitute significant talent.

 

And, what about addition through subtraction? Lackey, Wakefield, and Matsuzaka combined to pitch over 350 innings of about 5.70 ERA baseball. I don't think it's overly optimistic to suggest that the back end of the rotation, if filled out from the current roster, could better that.

 

While I agree that nobody should put all their eggs in the "If the top three stay healthy all year" basket like a700 has said, I don't think it's unrealistic to suggest they will throw 540 innings combined, which is a significant amount more than the 450 they combined for last year. This assumption leaves room for some missed starts and a DL stint or two.

 

That's over 440 innings of reasonable expectation for improvement. About 1/3 of a season. "Much" is such a subjective term, so I don't know what you are looking for to consider it "much" better, but I'd certainly take it.

[RedSoxNC84]

The danger in this approach is if the Rangers or someone other than than Yankees sign one of these guys. If that happens' date=' we will be in a bidding war with the Yankees for the remaining pitcher. That outcome will not favor the Sox.[/quote']

 

Here's to hoping the Rangers stay tied up in the Darvish negotiations and that everyone else magically doesn't want to sign a starting pitcher.

[a700hitter]

I think Bailey and Melancon constitute significant talent.

 

And, what about addition through subtraction? Lackey, Wakefield, and Matsuzaka combined to pitch over 350 innings of about 5.70 ERA baseball. I don't think it's overly optimistic to suggest that the back end of the rotation, if filled out from the current roster, could better that.

 

While I agree that nobody should put all their eggs in the "If the top three stay healthy all year" basket like a700 has said, I don't think it's unrealistic to suggest they will throw 540 innings combined, which is a significant amount more than the 450 they combined for last year. This assumption leaves room for some missed starts and a DL stint or two.

 

That's over 440 innings of reasonable expectation for improvement. About 1/3 of a season. "Much" is such a subjective term, so I don't know what you are looking for to consider it "much" better, but I'd certainly take it.

That's the best argument yet that the 2012 pitching will be improved as currently constituted. However, other than to say that Bailey and Melancon constitute significant talent, you really didn't address how the bullpen plays out. How does Albers, Melancon and Bailey stack up against Wheeler, Aceves, Bard and Papelbon? I am assuming that Aceves is a starter, because he has been told to prepare to be a starter. I think there is a big drop off in the pen.

[iortiz]

That's the best argument yet that the 2012 pitching will be improved as currently constituted. However' date=' other than to say that Bailey and Melancon constitute significant talent, you really didn't address how the bullpen plays out. How does Albers, Melancon and Bailey stack up against Wheeler, Aceves, Bard and Papelbon? I am assuming that Aceves is a starter, because he has been told to prepare to be a starter. I think there is a big drop off in the pen.[/quote']

 

The key word in this analysis is "healthy". Injuries are part of the game and neither team scape from them, unfortunately. Papelbon was healthy. He constantly and consistently gave you -+65 IP-35+ SV/season. Bailey has not a good track record in that regard (healthy). Buch wasn't healthy. They say that he is ready, fine. He hasn't pitched in months, another question mark. Will Bard and Aceves be heathy as a SP? If yes, how are they going to perform and how many IP will they give you? Will Lester and Becket be healthy? Thinking that Bailey-Melancon will be a better duo than Papelbon-Bard is only a good wish IMO. Nevertheless if they stay close to them (Pap-Bard), They will help us a lot, no doubt.

 

A lot of "question marks" and "Ifs" that could improve the team but that can make it worse as well. It's all a matter of perspective IMO. Either way, We better bring the arms who can put us in a better position to compete next season.

[NativeBostonian]

The pitching staff has not added any significant talent and has finished NINTH in ERA two years running. It is unreasonable to expect that somehow we will be much better next year-just as it is unlikely that the staff will be much worse. Until we add talent' date=' we will still have a mediocre pitching staff and will be unable to make a real run at a ring.[/quote']

 

Yes, that's true. But, also look at what happen to the pitching staff in the last two season; a lot of injuries. That will hurt even a great pitching staff, like the Phillies.

[User Name]

Nahhh UN?. You could think that I'm against Theo or that I hate him' date=' I don't. I have given him credit for what he achieved but IMO, It was time to move on, look at the recent years. The last collapse was only the cherry on the cake. I would have liked Friedman as GM. IMO he has been the best in that department in the recent years. IMO He could have given you the best of both worlds, good farm, good trades/FA signings. Hopefully Ben shows great skills as GM. We'll see.[/quote']

 

I wasn't talking about you specifically though. I apologize if you took it that way.