2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

As it stands right now' date=' the best Red Sox prospects will be ready to replace every position that is going to be open in 2013. Iggy-> Scutaro, Middlebrooks->Youklis, Lavarnway->Ortiz, ???-> Dice-k. They will probably plan on those rookies as part of their long term plan.[/quote']

 

Not sold on Iggy's bat ever being ready. Not sure if there are any adequate SP prospects either.

[FredLynn]

There's some significant talent going through FA before 2013' date=' and if the Sox play their cards right, they can contend in 2012 AND blow a chunk of money before 2013 too.[/quote']

 

Besides Oswalt, who do you think the team can sign that will turn around the pitching staff, which finished right in the middle of the AL in ERA this year? We got Albers coming back; he will most likely not be as good as he was early in the year. Aceves, if he starts, has numbers as a SP that are much worse than as a reliever, and along with Bard could only toss probably 160 innings max this year if they both start. Beckett is up and down-look at his history-and this is the odd year out for him. We lost our closer, and if Bard starts he has to be replaced. We will be hobbled with the return of Jenks, who is useless. The entire pen, nearly, has to be reinvented. Yes, we will score runs. The problem for this team is never runs. Its pitching. And now its the clubhouse too.

Just keeping it real here. We will be back, but not this year.

IMO.

[FredLynn]

Not sold on Iggy's bat ever being ready. Not sure if there are any adequate SP prospects either.

 

There is some guy in Japan that Valentine is high on who wants to play for the Sox. Not sure of the details; I remember reading about him though.

[Palodios]

Besides Oswalt' date=' who do you think the team can sign that will turn around the pitching staff, which finished right in the middle of the AL in ERA this year? [/quote']

 

How about Clay Buchholz?

[FredLynn]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/07/whos-the-youngest-in-each-league-midseason-edition/

 

Iglesias is the second youngest player in his league. The competition is much older and more developed. Yeah, he hasn't hit much, but there is a good chance he can get his OPS to .700, which is more than enough for his glove to make him a superstar.

 

In Pawtucket his stats were: .235/.554. He has NEVER hit in the minors.

Sure, he MIGHT make it to .700 OPS. Then I will believe.

Right now, its SHOW ME time.

[FredLynn]

How about Clay Buchholz?

 

Clay will help. Even when he was piching, the team ERA was in the middle of the AL. It was there all year.

To get really good I think we need a team with a dominant pitching staff. Thats how we did it in 04 and 07. You just can't keep bashing the other guys to death. You have to keep them from scoring too. The past three years we couldn't do that. We finished at 7, 8, and 9 the past three years in league ERA. That won't cut it.

[Palodios]

In Pawtucket his stats were: .235/.554. He has NEVER hit in the minors.

Sure, he MIGHT make it to .700 OPS. Then I will believe.

Right now, its SHOW ME time.

 

Why is it show me time now, when we're not talking about him being ready for another 16 months?

[User Name]

Besides Oswalt, who do you think the team can sign that will turn around the pitching staff, which finished right in the middle of the AL in ERA this year? We got Albers coming back; he will most likely not be as good as he was early in the year. Aceves, if he starts, has numbers as a SP that are much worse than as a reliever, and along with Bard could only toss probably 160 innings max this year if they both start. Beckett is up and down-look at his history-and this is the odd year out for him. We lost our closer, and if Bard starts he has to be replaced. We will be hobbled with the return of Jenks, who is useless. The entire pen, nearly, has to be reinvented. Yes, we will score runs. The problem for this team is never runs. Its pitching. And now its the clubhouse too.

Just keeping it real here. We will be back, but not this year.

IMO.

 

They can most likely get Oswalt and Cordero on one-year deals. If they can manage that and a platoon partner for Reddick, then they could move one of Bard/Aceves to closer. Also, Jenks will be on a contract year drive, so you can expect something out of him.

 

There's also the trade route. They may end up with Bailey, which would solve a lot of their problems, specially if he can stay healthy.

[FredLynn]

Why is it show me time now' date=' when we're not talking about him being ready for another 16 months?[/quote']

 

Who is talking about him being ready in 16m?

As soon as he proves he can hit the baseball he will make it up. So far, he has shown us nothing in two years. Watching him up there, he doesn't look good. I have my doubts that he will ever be capable of hitting. I hope he proves me wrong.

[Palodios]

Who is talking about him being ready in 16m?

As soon as he proves he can hit the baseball he will make it up. So far, he has shown us nothing in two years. Watching him up there, he doesn't look good. I have my doubts that he will ever be capable of hitting. I hope he proves me wrong.

 

Two years? What? He hit around low .700 over his time in the minors in 2010, exactly where he is supposed to be. He's never going to hit much higher than that, and if you expect him to, you don't know the kind of player he is.

 

EVERYONE here is talking about him starting in 2013 at SS. That is 16 months away, a ton of development time.

[FredLynn]

They can most likely get Oswalt and Cordero on one-year deals. If they can manage that and a platoon partner for Reddick, then they could move one of Bard/Aceves to closer. Also, Jenks will be on a contract year drive, so you can expect something out of him.

 

There's also the trade route. They may end up with Bailey, which would solve a lot of their problems, specially if he can stay healthy.

 

I expect something out of Jenks: more of the same.

Signing Oswalt will put us significantly over the threshold, especially if we get Cordero too. I would love to get Bailey; I see him play out here. He is good.

I would rather the team get its s*** together this year and make a real run next year that make a half-hearted run this year and not have the resources to go for it next year.

We'll see how things pan out. If the owners go much over the cap then to me it means that they really believe that they can make a run this year. If they don't then I think the opposite is true.

[FredLynn]

Two years? What? He hit around low .700 over his time in the minors in 2010, exactly where he is supposed to be. He's never going to hit much higher than that, and if you expect him to, you don't know the kind of player he is.

 

EVERYONE here is talking about him starting in 2013 at SS. That is 16 months away, a ton of development time.

 

His stats for A, AA, and AAA are .261/.624

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=iglesi001jos

[User Name]

I expect something out of Jenks: more of the same.

Signing Oswalt will put us significantly over the threshold, especially if we get Cordero too. I would love to get Bailey; I see him play out here. He is good.

I would rather the team get its s*** together this year and make a real run next year that make a half-hearted run this year and not have the resources to go for it next year.

We'll see how things pan out. If the owners go much over the cap then to me it means that they really believe that they can make a run this year. If they don't then I think the opposite is true.

 

Jenks is a good pitcher, but he's fat and out of shape. Expect him to be in great shape next year for his contract drive. You can quote me on it.

 

As for Oswalt and Cordero, that's the point. They would put us significantly over the threshold this year. Then they would be FA's along with Jenks, Ortiz, and the others, and the Sox would be massively under the cap. Pay now so you can avoid paying later.

[FredLynn]

Jenks is a good pitcher, but he's fat and out of shape. Expect him to be in great shape next year for his contract drive. You can quote me on it.

 

As for Oswalt and Cordero, that's the point. They would put us significantly over the threshold this year. Then they would be FA's along with Jenks, Ortiz, and the others, and the Sox would be massively under the cap. Pay now so you can avoid paying later.

 

Jenks will probably show up in great shape-for Jenks. Thats still obese. You can quote ME on that.

In your scenario we still have to stay under the cap next year because the bracket is 50%. We lose flexibility next year when all those great names become available. As I said, for my part, I would rather wait.

[SoxFanForsyth]

In Pawtucket his stats were: .235/.554. He has NEVER hit in the minors.

Sure, he MIGHT make it to .700 OPS. Then I will believe.

Right now, its SHOW ME time.

 

He was 21 playing against advanced 24 year olds!! Dude. Give him a couple years to adjust! Jesus Montero is widely thought to be an elite power bat, and he OPS'd .814 in AAA this year. He is 21 as well, but he is in his 4th year in the minor leagues.

 

You have to give Iglesias a couple years to learn pitch recognition man. You don't just automatically come out of Cuba with pitch recognition skills on advanced pitchers.

[User Name]

Jenks will probably show up in great shape-for Jenks. Thats still obese. You can quote ME on that.

In your scenario we still have to stay under the cap next year because the bracket is 50%. We lose flexibility next year when all those great names become available. As I said, for my part, I would rather wait.

 

They would be over 40 million under the cap for 2013 in my scenario. That's enough for something, isn't it?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Clay will help. Even when he was piching, the team ERA was in the middle of the AL. It was there all year.

To get really good I think we need a team with a dominant pitching staff. Thats how we did it in 04 and 07. You just can't keep bashing the other guys to death. You have to keep them from scoring too. The past three years we couldn't do that. We finished at 7, 8, and 9 the past three years in league ERA. That won't cut it.

 

This is what it all boils down to.

 

1. Can Aceves post better than the 6.41 ERA that Lackey posted? I don't think that's even a question. He came out and pitched multiple innings multiple times, and in those outings went through the lineup more than once. Sure his ERA as a SP was 5.14 but that was in large part due to 1 bad outing vs the ChiSox. He only started 4 games this year, so that's an extremely small sample size to base any kind of decision regarding him as a SP. I fully expect him to come out next year and post around a 3.6-3.7 ERA as a SP.

 

2. Can we find a better SP than Tim Wakefield to be our 5th man? I don't think that's a question either. Oswalt, Garza, Gio, EJax are all still available, and any of them would be a massive, massive upgrade.

 

3. Plain and simple, you put together a rotation of Lester - Beckett - Buchholz - Oswalt/Garza/Gio/EJax - Aceves, and you've got a top rotation in the AL East, and you've got a top team in the MLB with the offense we have.

[User Name]

Expecting Aceves to post an ERA under four as a starter is kind of unrealistic though.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Expecting Aceves to post an ERA under four as a starter is kind of unrealistic though.

 

How so? He threw to a 2.61 in 114 IP last season. He's got a career 2.93 ERA. His innings load is not going to jump like it would for most relievers turning to starters. He's got 3 plus pitches, and is not at all afraid to throw inside. I think his stuff translates well into a starter role.

[seabeachfred]

So, so true.

 

If we even mention a trade that benefits the Sox, according to Meh and Jacko, we won't match up well or don't have the chips to do it because all of our prospects are duds.

 

Forsyth, have you ever watched Chris Young play???? The guy has some power but can't hit for an average worth a damn. He has been an underachiever for he past few years and we have had enough of that with some of the duds we've signed both on the hill and in the field. If Young is the best we can do I'd rather get pitching and look for a trade at the trading deadline. In my opinion, and it's only an opinion, but when we sign some player for our team we'd better be damn sure he can take the pressure of playing in Boston. The list is chock full of guys who came here and failed miserably.

[User Name]

How so? He threw to a 2.61 in 114 IP last season. He's got a career 2.93 ERA. His innings load is not going to jump like it would for most relievers turning to starters. He's got 3 plus pitches' date=' and is not at all afraid to throw inside. I think his stuff translates well into a starter role.[/quote']

 

But as a starter, he's going to have to go through that third time of a lineup. Aceves has good stuff, but no plus-plus pitches. I'd say 150 IP of 4.3-4.5 ERA is much more realistic.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Forsyth' date=' have you ever watched Chris Young play???? The guy has some power but can't hit for an average worth a damn. He has been an underachiever for he past few years and we have had enough of that with some of the duds we've signed both on the hill and in the field. If Young is the best we can do I'd rather get pitching and look for a trade at the trading deadline. In my opinion, and it's only an opinion, but when we sign some player for our team we'd better be damn sure he can take the pressure of playing in Boston. The list is chock full of guys who came here and failed miserably.[/quote']

 

That's always going to be a situation that we're in when we acquire players. Hell, look at Crawford. He was AL East tested and still folded last season. Obviously that doesn't mean he won't bounce back this year. I see where you're coming from and know he can't hit for a lot of average, but there were about 5-6 balls that he hit at Chase that were flyouts that would have banged off/gone over the monster at Fenway. That would bump him up to a .250 hitter with a .340 OBP. The East is full of bandboxes in terms of away games as well, which would suit him better than Petco and AT&T. I think if he came over his numbers would translate pretty well. Maybe a .255/.345 hitter with 20/20 power/speed. I would take that from our RF all day, especially if he hammers LHP like he does.

[SoxFanForsyth]

But as a starter' date=' he's going to have to go through that third time of a lineup. Aceves has good stuff, but no plus-plus pitches. I'd say 150 IP of 4.3-4.5 ERA is much more realistic.[/quote']

 

I think he'll crush your IP projection. He should be at 185-195, that's really only a 70-80 inning jump.

 

I really think his stuff is electric and will play better than you project it to play. According to Fangraph's Pitch Value, he's actually got a top 10 fastball in the entire AL of pitchers with at least 110 IP, and his changeup ranked 13th in the AL off all pitchers with at least 110 IP.

 

I think some of his stuff may go a little under appreciated.

[User Name]

I think he'll crush your IP projection. He should be at 185-195, that's really only a 70-80 inning jump.

 

I really think his stuff is electric and will play better than you project it to play. According to Fangraph's Pitch Value, he's actually got a top 10 fastball in the entire AL of pitchers with at least 110 IP, and his changeup ranked 13th in the AL off all pitchers with at least 110 IP.

 

I think some of his stuff may go a little under appreciated.

 

It doesn't play the same way as a starter than it does relieving. You have to hold back some pitches and save some velocity for the later innings.

 

I think he'll be above average, but as a starter, i doubt he's as good as you say. We'll see.

[SoxFanForsyth]

It doesn't play the same way as a starter than it does relieving. You have to hold back some pitches and save some velocity for the later innings.

 

I think he'll be above average, but as a starter, i doubt he's as good as you say. We'll see.

 

True, his FB will probably decrease in value. I don't know if that same effect will happen to his changeup. Either way, I'm sure now that we've made our projections he'll split the middle and be around 3.9-4.0.

[Spitball]

"Dismal" to "decent". Not "good" or "excellent".

 

Market wise, the Arizona Diamondbacks are just ahead of the Minnesota Twins. We are not talking about a team in a market like New York , Philadelphia, or Boston. They will build towards decent because they have economic restraints that do not exist in some larger markets. I'm guessing Saito just about depleted the bullpen budget.

 

The point all along has been that they don't need' date=' as you just said, to dump him for the sake of dumping him, but rather, to trade him for inexpensive team parts, however, not the inexpensive parts the RED SOX want to give up but the ones THEY want to acquire, which, by all indications, are not centered around an OF, but rather young pitching. They don't have to dump him for a package that doesn't entice them. This is a fact.[/quote']

 

A fact is something that is true about a subject and can be tested or proven. An opinion is what someone thinks about that subject. You have stated an opinion by the very definition. My opinion is that tha Red Sox might have a chance at Young because the Diamondbacks are a team needing to watch the dollar signs. Their population is just ahead of the Minnesota Twins and we understand their predictament.

[User Name]

Where have i said that the Red Sox don't have a chance at Young? That is selective reading. In fact, i posted a package i thought would get it done.

 

What i have said is that the package needed is probably going to have to be centered around Coyle and a couple young arms instead of Reddick because from what they've been doing this off-season it would probably be more desirable to the Diamondbacks.

 

What i posted as fact is that, in fact, the D'Backs don't need to use a Chris Young trade as a straight salary dump because he's a 20/20 OF that is cost-controlled. That is the fact, and has nothing to do with the ability the Red Sox have to get the guy.

[seabeachfred]

I would sure like to make a run at someone like Matt Cain' date=' Cole Hamels, Zach Greinke, or Anibel Sanchez in 2013 and reap the bitter seed that Epstein has sown this year.[/quote']

 

That is very chancy Pumpsie because we don't know if they will be out there and not resigned by their respective ballclubs. Their front offices are not necessarily as dumb as ours is and we could wind up empty on all counts, and if the Red Sox were dumb enough to resign Ortiz to a new contract this winter what would stop them from doing so again next year? Remember this is the same organization that replaced Damon with Crisp, Vaughn with Offerman, Bay with Cameron and this fall Papelbon with Melancon. This is the same organization that insisted a bum like Wily Mo Pena could turn out to be another Ortiz or Manny, the same organization that insisted that Manny Delcarmen was only inches away from being a knock down reliever. Both were out of baseball less than two years after we finally got rid of them.

 

No, I would go for Oswalt with a one year contract, see how that works out. I think it would be better than what we're planning now---which I can't say what because Cherries Jubilee doesn't seem to really know and neither does Il Duce Lucchino. The Yankees aren't getting any younger either and have done little to improve a team that took advantage of our miserable collapse and the ineptness of Francona's managing to steal another division from us. Remember this.....We won't have the albatross of having Tito mismanage us out of between 10-12 games anymore. We might just win those with a manager who knows how to skipper from the dugout. Oswalt, if healthy, could give us a decent rotation, keep the people in the bullpen and actually give us a chance to steal a division title for a change.

 

Of course it means our "Big Three" in the rotation must do their jobs next season, no sure thing, but it is a chance I'd be willing to take. Sign Oswalt to that damn one year contract Cherries.

[seabeachfred]

They can most likely get Oswalt and Cordero on one-year deals. If they can manage that and a platoon partner for Reddick, then they could move one of Bard/Aceves to closer. Also, Jenks will be on a contract year drive, so you can expect something out of him.

 

There's also the trade route. They may end up with Bailey, which would solve a lot of their problems, specially if he can stay healthy.

 

We argue User but do you notice that we seem to agree a lot of the time? Spot on with your opinion. We could manage to sign Oswalt and Cordero even though I'm not too certain about the latter guy being the closer we need. Still it is a vast improvement over what we are currently facing. People should remember how Bard was as a starter when he first broke it. HE WAS WORSE THAN s*****. Look it up. Getting him back to the pen is in our best interests, and I wish we could do the same with Aceves because he pitches better in a relief role. Of course, Ace will have to start, otherwise we are maybe looking at another year of Wakefield and that is a possibility that is too ugly and miserable to contemplate. As for the platoon partner for Reddick or Kalish (I like Ryan better because he is more hard nosed and more disciplined at the plate), it sure as hell had better not be Darling Darnell McDonald. That guy sucks and I haven't heard much about him this winter which makes me suspicious the FO might try to ram him down our throats again next season. Get someone like Ludwick, not a great one but a helluva lot better than Darnell.

[Spitball]

What i posted as fact is that, in fact, the D'Backs don't need to use a Chris Young trade as a straight salary dump because he's a 20/20 OF that is cost-controlled. That is the fact, and has nothing to do with the ability the Red Sox have to get the guy.

 

That is not a fact. The Diamondbacks likely have a budget which is probably an opinion. They added Kubel and $15 million to their budget. That can be proven and is thus a fact. They are a market of just about 3 million population which is similar to the Minnesota Twins which can be looked up and proven which makes it a fact. We can logically assume that the D'backs operate in a manner in which they have to manipulate their budget in a way different than a larger market. They just acquired an outfielder when they already have three outfielders. We can assume that they need to relieve themselves of additional salary because of their market size.

 

Really, I have expressed an opinion based on observations of smaller market teams and economic needs. Your opinion is based on an apparent belief that teams always make moves based on positional needs. We just disagree.