2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[Rdsxmbnt]

Yeah. A guy who hasn't touched .260 and strikes out over 20% of the time is worth elite talent.

 

A package of Kalish/Reddick + Coyle + a BP arm would almost certainly make the deal.

 

I don't think I'd even trade Kalish or Reddick straight up for him. He's never gotten over an .800 OPS in his 6 seasons and he'd be playing a corner OF role. And even if he did it would be with a terrible BA and OBP with a ton of strikeouts. Pass.

[Spitball]

(Go through MLBTR if you don't believe me) meaning they are indeed looking for power arms to complement their BP. Actions speak louder than words.

 

I did go to MLBTR and this is the latest I found:

 

 

Saito joins David Hernandez, J.J. Putz, Joe Paterson, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow and others in Arizona's projected 2012 bullpen. D'Backs GM Kevin Towers successfully turned a dismal 'pen around last offseason, when he acquired the likes of Hernandez, Putz and Paterson.

 

 

On a side note' date=' the Guardians are also looking for Offense, as well as the Blue Jays, who could deploy him as a LF or RF. Realistically, several teams besides the Sox could use Young so the D'Backs are in no obligation to trade him as a strict salary dump.[/quote']

 

No one is saying he is definitely headed to the Red Sox, but he could be a possibility. The D'backs just acquired a fourth outfielder in Jason Kubel at about $15 million. Young will make just about that same money over those two years. He had a disappointing season while Parra had a breakout season. Parra is very cheap and can play Young's position.

 

If Arizona can rid themselves of Young's contract, they'd be free to use that money (along with Saunders' money) towards Kuroda, who is a target of theirs according to rumors. That is they way much of the baseball world operates in this day and age. Trades today are often designed to free up money so that money can be sent in an area of need. A fairly expensive Young could very logically be traded for inexpensive team parts to free up salary room.

[User Name]

I did go to MLBTR and this is the latest I found:

 

 

No one is saying he is definitely headed to the Red Sox, but he could be a possibility. The D'backs just acquired a fourth outfielder in Jason Kubel at about $15 million. Young will make just about that same money over those two years. He had a disappointing season while Parra had a breakout season. Parra is very cheap and can play Young's position.

 

If Arizona can rid themselves of Young's contract, they'd be free to use that money (along with Saunders' money) towards Kuroda, who is a target of theirs according to rumors. That is they way much of the baseball world operates in this day and age. Trades today are often designed to free up money so that money can be sent in an area of need. A fairly expensive Young could very logically be traded for inexpensive team parts to free up salary room.

 

"Dismal" to "decent". Not "good" or "excellent".

 

The point all along has been that they don't need, as you just said, to dump him for the sake of dumping him, but rather, to trade him for inexpensive team parts, however, not the inexpensive parts the RED SOX want to give up but the ones THEY want to acquire, which, by all indications, are not centered around an OF, but rather young pitching. They don't have to dump him for a package that doesn't entice them. This is a fact.

[redsoxfan3]

I read on MLB Trade Rumors that Oswalt is now seeking a one-year deal. I wonder what the price would be for him. He might be worth the risk. The only thing for me is hopefully he can stay healthy. This could keep Bard or Aceves in the pen, which would be good. Also, we have "increased dialogue" with Francisco Cordero. I would rather have Madson, but I feel like Cordero would be a cheaper option and still would be reliable for a year or two. He is 36, so he is getting old.

 

The positive of potentially signing both Cordero and Oswalt is that we would have flexibility. If we keep Bard as a starter, then Aceves would probably be the 7th inning guy, with Melancon as the set-up, and Cordero as the closer. If we keep Aceves in the rotation, then we would probably have Melancon as the 7th inning guy, Bard as the set-up, and Cordero as the closer. Cordero, Melancon, and Bard all have the potential to close for this team. Melancon and Cordero have experience as a closer. Either way that would leave us with 3 solid arms in the pen for the last three innings.

[FredLynn]

I read on MLB Trade Rumors that Oswalt is now seeking a one-year deal. I wonder what the price would be for him. He might be worth the risk. The only thing for me is hopefully he can stay healthy. This could keep Bard or Aceves in the pen, which would be good. Also, we have "increased dialogue" with Francisco Cordero. I would rather have Madson, but I feel like Cordero would be a cheaper option and still would be reliable for a year or two. He is 36, so he is getting old.

 

The positive of potentially signing both Cordero and Oswalt is that we would have flexibility. If we keep Bard as a starter, then Aceves would probably be the 7th inning guy, with Melancon as the set-up, and Cordero as the closer. If we keep Aceves in the rotation, then we would probably have Melancon as the 7th inning guy, Bard as the set-up, and Cordero as the closer. Cordero, Melancon, and Bard all have the potential to close for this team. Melancon and Cordero have experience as a closer. Either way that would leave us with 3 solid arms in the pen for the last three innings.

 

We aren't getting Oswalt.

We aren't getting Madsen.

And we aren't even getting Cordero.

Once Ortiz gets his money there will be almost no money left to spend on those guys unless we exceed the luxury tax threshold significantly. And that isn't happening, nor should it this year.

[FredLynn]

This is probably the compensation.

 

I think the Cubs have every right to ask for more than that in compensation for relieving us of Epstein.

[User Name]

We aren't getting Oswalt.

We aren't getting Madsen.

And we aren't even getting Cordero.

Once Ortiz gets his money there will be almost no money left to spend on those guys unless we exceed the luxury tax threshold significantly. And that isn't happening, nor should it this year.

 

Red Sox president Larry Lucchino explained the team's stance on the luxury tax: "We wouldn’t rule it out (going over the threshold), but our plan historically has been to try to be at or around it. We have gone over it when we felt there was a need to. When the baseball operations department suggested a certain transaction made imminent good sense, we were willing to go over it, and I think that will be our policy going forward."[/Quote]

 

Lucchino says they might, and they keep negotiating with free agents that would require that they do. What makes you so sure they won't go over the LT then?

[Rdsxmbnt]

Ideal offseason plan:

 

-Sign Oswalt

-Trade Reddick+ for CL Bailey

-Pick up decent RH OF to platoon with Kalish

-Move Bard to rotation

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Gonzales 1B

4. Youl 3B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Crawford LF

7. Salty C

8. Kalish RF

9. Scutaro

 

1. Lester

2. Beckett

3. Buchholz

4. Oswalt

5. Bard

 

Bench

C Shoppach

IF Punto

OF Free Agent

IF Aviles

OF McDonald

 

Bullpen

CL Bailey

SU Melancon

SU Jenks

MR Albers

MR Aceves

MR Miller/Morales/Bowden

[iortiz]

Ideal offseason plan:

 

-Sign Oswalt

-Trade Reddick+ for CL Bailey

-Pick up decent RH OF to platoon with Kalish

-Move Bard to rotation

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Gonzales 1B

4. Youl 3B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Crawford LF

7. Salty C

8. Kalish RF

9. Scutaro

 

1. Lester

2. Beckett

3. Buchholz

4. Oswalt

5. Bard

 

Bench

C Shoppach

IF Punto

OF Free Agent

IF Aviles

OF McDonald

 

Bullpen

CL Bailey

SU Melancon

SU Jenks

MR Albers

MR Aceves

MR Miller/Morales/Bowden

 

I like Oswald, but is he healthy? Will he be healthy? Any report about his arm lately?

[example1]

Lucchino says they might' date=' and they keep negotiating with free agents that would require that they do. [b']What makes you so sure they won't go over the LT then?[/b]

 

He knows everything about the Sox and is much smarter than their previous GM.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lucchino says they might' date=' and they keep negotiating with free agents that would require that they do. What makes you so sure they won't go over the LT then?[/quote']

 

Dude didn't you know? He knows everything. It's a fact.

[DeadHorseSociety]

Ideal offseason plan:

 

-Sign Oswalt

-Trade Reddick+ for CL Bailey

-Pick up decent RH OF to platoon with Kalish

-Move Bard to rotation

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Gonzales 1B

4. Youl 3B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Crawford LF

7. Salty C

8. Kalish RF

9. Scutaro

 

1. Lester

2. Beckett

3. Buchholz

4. Oswalt

5. Bard

 

Bench

C Shoppach

IF Punto

OF Free Agent

IF Aviles

OF McDonald

 

Bullpen

CL Bailey

SU Melancon

SU Jenks

MR Albers

MR Aceves

MR Miller/Morales/Bowden

 

 

 

I don't know about Oswalt. IMO Edwin Jackson's the best deal out there and would be a steal for 4X$10-$11m.

 

Rotation

1. Lester

2. Beckett

3. Buchholz

4. Jackson

5. Jeff Francis/Aceves

 

 

 

Bullpen

CL Bard

-- Melancon

-- Jenks

-- Aceves

-- Zumaya

-- Morales

[Palodios]

I don't know about Oswalt. IMO Edwin Jackson's the best deal out there and would be a steal for 4X$10-$11m.

 

Rotation

1. Lester

2. Beckett

3. Buchholz

4. Jackson

5. Jeff Francis/Aceves

 

 

 

Bullpen

CL Bard

-- Melancon

-- Jenks

-- Aceves

-- Zumaya

-- Morales

 

Edwin Jackson had a pretty awful time in Tampa Bay when he played in this division. I hesitate to move him back here for 40 million considering that he has not been very consistent.

[example1]

Jackson will cost a fair amount too, and with the FA market next year I hope the Sox just keep their options open.

[jung]

The problem with going over the LT cap this year is that next year is likely a better target if they are going to go over and if they go over this year even by a little, they doom themselves to the 50% bracket next year. The new CBA makes it much more attractive to go over and back again in alternate years if you can get back to a 0% rate again as you will not pay more than 17.5% as a rate now if you do that.

 

While they have not gone over by much when they have gone over in the past, the way the new rates are stacked makes that a plan that has grown a bit long in the tooth. They would be better served finding their way back to a 0% rate and then going over either in alternate years or never more than two years running. Regardless of what LL says I don't see the Sox putting themselves in a position where they end up paying $.50 on every dollar over the cap in tax. Doesn't sound like much of a big deal but it means you end up paying $7.5M for a $5m player or $15M for a $10M player. In reality I think that will tie their hands.

 

It might be easier for me to see them going over this year if the cap limit was going up next year but it is not. The limit does not go up again until 2014.

 

The way the rates are stacked now a good plan would be to get back to 0% and then pay 17.5% in any year following if you went over, and rely on the raising cap limit to give you some help in getting back under again. The Sox are about the only team effected by the new rates. The Yankees don't care and if the Phills go over this will be their first year over the cap.

[Palodios]

I think Oswalt is probably the Red Sox's best option. Even if they have to pay him more in the short run, giving them an elite pitcher for a short time will give them quite a bit of flexibility. As long as he lasts long enough to give Dice-k the time to heal, and/or Wilson/Doubront/Bard the opportunity to get work in AAA, that would still be very valuable to this team.

[FredLynn]

He knows everything about the Sox and is much smarter than their previous GM.

 

I hit the nail on the head this year, didn't I?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Signing Oswalt to 1/$12mm would be a perfect move for this team right now. After the 2012 season, you can dump his salary and DiceK's salary, buy out Youk's option if WMB is ready, replace Scutaro with Iglesias, and knock out Jenk's salary.

 

Assuming we sign Oswalt to 1/$12mm, that would drop our payroll by $45,500,000.

 

There's a pretty big market of SP coming into FA next year. Danks, Anibal Sanchez, Wainwright, and Matt Cain will all be available.

[User Name]

If you fling enough negative s*** at the wall, a significant portion of it is bound to stick.

[Palodios]

The problem with going over the LT cap this year is that next year is likely a better target if they are going to go over and if they go over this year even by a little, they doom themselves to the 50% bracket next year. The new CBA makes it much more attractive to go over and back again in alternate years if you can get back to a 0% rate again as you will not pay more than 17.5% as a rate now if you do that.

 

While they have not gone over by much when they have gone over in the past, the way the new rates are stacked makes that a plan that has grown a bit long in the tooth. They would be better served finding their way back to a 0% rate and then going over either in alternate years or never more than two years running. Regardless of what LL says I don't see the Sox putting themselves in a position where they end up paying $.50 on every dollar over the cap in tax. Doesn't sound like much of a big deal but it means you end up paying $7.5M for a $5m player or $15M for a $10M player. In reality I think that will tie their hands.

 

It might be easier for me to see them going over this year if the cap limit was going up next year but it is not. The limit does not go up again until 2014.

 

The way the rates are stacked now a good plan would be to get back to 0% and then pay 17.5% in any year following if you went over, and rely on the raising cap limit to give you some help in getting back under again. The Sox are about the only team effected by the new rates. The Yankees don't care and if the Phills go over this will be their first year over the cap.

 

As it stands right now, the best Red Sox prospects will be ready to replace every position that is going to be open in 2013. Iggy-> Scutaro, Middlebrooks->Youklis, Lavarnway->Ortiz, ???-> Dice-k. They will probably plan on those rookies as part of their long term plan.

[User Name]

They could blow the cap this year, and actually be significantly under it by 2013 if some of the prospects pan out.

[FredLynn]

Lucchino says they might' date=' and they keep negotiating with free agents that would require that they do. What makes you so sure they won't go over the LT then?[/quote']

 

Of course I don't KNOW they won't go over; its an opinion. And here is the reasoning.

Lets assume the the owners are not stupid. They would love to compete for a ring every year, but looking at who we have on the roster this year (and who we don't), and looking at the list of clubhouse troublemakers and the turmoil the clubhouse is in, the odds are that this is not going to be a good year to play "all in". I think they know that.

They also can see the list of FAs this year and next year, just like we can. And they also know that if they exceed the $178M number this year then next year, if they exceed it, the tax bracket will be 50%. If they keep under it this year it will be about 17% next year. It makes good business sense to keep feeding the fans the propaganda that we can win it all this year, but to hedge your resources until the year approaches when we really can win it all, when we get that great SP, when we get rid of the dregs Epstein has left us, and when Valentine has had a chance to right the clubhouse ship.

These guys are businessmen, first and foremost, which is their right. To me it makes good business sense to hold back the resources this year. I hope that is what they intend to do.

[FredLynn]

If you fling enough negative s*** at the wall' date=' a significant portion of it is bound to stick.[/quote']

 

On the contrary: I am very hopeful that this team will return to relevancy in 2013. I think they did the right thing in firing the GM and the manager. They are on the right course. All they have to do is finish the job and rid the clubhouse of the troublemakers and the bad contracts.

Then we can compete again.

[SoxFanForsyth]

As it stands right now' date=' the best Red Sox prospects will be ready to replace every position that is going to be open in 2013. Iggy-> Scutaro, Middlebrooks->Youklis, Lavarnway->Ortiz, ???-> Dice-k. They will probably plan on those rookies as part of their long term plan.[/quote']

 

Exactly.

 

Scutaro: $6mm

Youkilis: $12.25mm

Ortiz: $14mm

Jenks: $6mm

DiceK: $10.33mm

 

Total off the books in 2013: $48,500,000

 

That's pretty damn significant. And it would allow the FO to not only sign a middle of the rotation starter for 5/80mm, but also would leave room to extend Ellsbury to 7/142 if they want to. And they would still have $10mm to play with to replace Jenks.

[DeadHorseSociety]

Edwin Jackson had a pretty awful time in Tampa Bay when he played in this division. I hesitate to move him back here for 40 million considering that he has not been very consistent.

 

 

Edwin Jackson's a better pitcher than he was in Tampa, seems he's starting to work out his control issues as he's entering his prime. 4X$10-11-12m for 200ip from your #4 who has plus stuff is a bargain. It would give the sox a young front 4 which in a few years can be Lester, Buchholz, Jackson, Barnes and Ranaudo.

[User Name]

The thing is, that they can blow the cap this year with a couple of one-year contracts (like Oswalt) then get comfortably enough under the cap for 2013 (with expiring contracts and rookies taking over some positions) to make some other FA moves and stay under the cap.

[FredLynn]

They could blow the cap this year' date=' and actually be significantly under it by 2013 if some of the prospects pan out.[/quote']

 

I would sure like to make a run at someone like Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Zach Greinke, or Anibel Sanchez in 2013 and reap the bitter seed that Epstein has sown this year.

[FredLynn]

As it stands right now' date=' the best Red Sox prospects will be ready to replace every position that is going to be open in 2013. Iggy-> Scutaro, Middlebrooks->Youklis, Lavarnway->Ortiz, ???-> Dice-k. They will probably plan on those rookies as part of their long term plan.[/quote']

 

I don't want to see Iglesias on the roster until he can learn to hit the baseball. He is HORRIBLE with the bat right now. As things stand, he is not a major league ready player and won't be until he can hit.

[User Name]

I would sure like to make a run at someone like Matt Cain' date=' Cole Hamels, Zach Greinke, or Anibel Sanchez in 2013 and reap the bitter seed that Epstein has sown this year.[/quote']

 

There's some significant talent going through FA before 2013, and if the Sox play their cards right, they can contend in 2012 AND blow a chunk of money before 2013 too.

[Palodios]

I don't want to see Iglesias on the roster until he can learn to hit the baseball. He is HORRIBLE with the bat right now. As things stand' date=' he is not a major league ready player and won't be until he can hit.[/quote']

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/07/whos-the-youngest-in-each-league-midseason-edition/

 

Iglesias is the second youngest player in his league. The competition is much older and more developed. Yeah, he hasn't hit much, but there is a good chance he can get his OPS to .700, which is more than enough for his glove to make him a superstar.