2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[example1]

I'd like to know that myself. We don't need Ortiz as much as we need pitching and soe RH hitting outfielder. Could be the Red Sox are frightened he might end up in the Bronx, something that always seems to shake the hell out of Lucchino and Co. every time one of our key players hits free agency. I think Ryan Lavarnway would do well offensively at DH and as second catcher and could hit between 25-30 homers and he gives us a RH bat which we need very badly after Epstein stupidly lefthanded us to death. I'm beginning to have deep misgivings about Cherington's acument as a GM. All of us on this board can see with a clear eye what we need so why does he insist he has to resign Ortiz? We need pitching a lot more.

 

As for the Orioles not wanting Varitek, I just hope that doesn't give Lucchino a wild oat up his ass to resign the guy again. He and Wakefield need to go, finally and utterly.

 

Although I don't understand the strong push for Ortiz either, I suspect they might be using public statements about wanting him back in the place of the money that he wants.

 

In other words, they offered him arbitration which they are clearly willing to accept on a one-year deal. He wants a multi-year deal. They might bid really low on a multi-year deal, throw in some good publicity and hope that it works. If he leaves, no harm. They have money to spend on pitching, have Lavarnway and others to fill his spot, and get some draft picks. Either way, the publicity plays to Ortiz's ego and plays to whatever portion of the fanbase might be sad--particularly if he lands in NY.

 

It just doesn't seem like he's worth a multi-year deal for significant money at this point. He thinks he is. Usually when that's the case, the player is free to go, or accept the Sox terms. They are trying to sweeten it with priority visits by Bobby V and some really good press about how much they want him back.

 

If they REALLY wanted him, they would reach deep, fork over the 3 year, $12m deal he wants, and go bargain hunting for a pitcher.

[a700hitter]

Although I don't understand the strong push for Ortiz either, I suspect they might be using public statements about wanting him back in the place of the money that he wants.

 

In other words, they offered him arbitration which they are clearly willing to accept on a one-year deal. He wants a multi-year deal. They might bid really low on a multi-year deal, throw in some good publicity and hope that it works. If he leaves, no harm. They have money to spend on pitching, have Lavarnway and others to fill his spot, and get some draft picks. Either way, the publicity plays to Ortiz's ego and plays to whatever portion of the fanbase might be sad--particularly if he lands in NY.

 

It just doesn't seem like he's worth a multi-year deal for significant money at this point. He thinks he is. Usually when that's the case, the player is free to go, or accept the Sox terms. They are trying to sweeten it with priority visits by Bobby V and some really good press about how much they want him back.

 

If they REALLY wanted him, they would reach deep, fork over the 3 year, $12m deal he wants, and go bargain hunting for a pitcher.

From what I am reading, it seems like they are saying that they are confident that they will sign him to a 2 yr deal on the condition that he declines arbitration. I am not sure why they would want that condition. :dunno:

[iortiz]

The Bard to the rotation possibility seems to be under serious consideration and it also seems to be Bard's preference. When Gammons raised it during the season as a possibility going forward' date=' many scoffed at the idea. Based on what BC has said, the team and Bard may not be on the same page on this. Losing the who back end of the bullpen would be a huge blow, but Bard would be an enormous upgrade over Wakefield. [b']That would still leave 1 rotation spot to be determined, and if that final spot goes to Aceves, the entire bullpen would have to be built from the ground up. That ain't gonna be easy[/b].

 

One way or another there will repercussions. And still you will need money in order to bring solid pieces unless they are thinking in trades or maybe they are thinking in long shot pieces which would make me worry even more.

 

 

We'll see.

[a700hitter]

One way or another there will repercussions. And still you will need money in order to bring solid pieces or maybe they are thinking in trades or maybe they are thinking in long shot pieces which would make me worry even more.

 

 

We'll see.

I like to call that approach dumpster diving, and you are right to be concerned, because it almost never works out well.

[example1]

From what I am reading' date=' it seems like they are saying that they are confident that they will sign him to a 2 yr deal on the condition that he declines arbitration. I am not sure why they would want that condition. :dunno:[/quote']

 

The two year deal at less than arb would make sense. 2 years, $16-20m or so. Still seems like a lot to me, but Ortiz was a beast last year and I can't say I will dislike having him in the lineup again. A lineup with Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Ortiz, Lavarnway, Crawford, Scutaro and Kalish/Reddick would be both dynamic and dangerous.

 

Now, about that pitching issue....

 

I suspect a trade would be used to address it, if at all possible.

[example1]

I like to call that approach dumpster diving' date=' and you are right to be concerned, because it almost never works out well.[/quote']

 

I'm all for dumpster diving with guys like Zumaya and Morales. Not so much with a #4 pitcher.

[a700hitter]

The two year deal at less than arb would make sense. 2 years, $16-20m or so. Still seems like a lot to me, but Ortiz was a beast last year and I can't say I will dislike having him in the lineup again. A lineup with Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Ortiz, Lavarnway, Crawford, Scutaro and Kalish/Reddick would be both dynamic and dangerous.

 

Now, about that pitching issue....

 

I suspect a trade would be used to address it, if at all possible.

If he accepts arbitration, they could still do a 2 year deal... right? His decision to accept or decline the arb isn't relevant to whether they sign him to a multi year deal right?

[a700hitter]

I'm all for dumpster diving with guys like Zumaya and Morales. Not so much with a #4 pitcher.

I'm not so sure Zumaya will be as cheap as you might hope. Is he worth the risk for $3 million or more?

[example1]

If he accepts arbitration' date=' they could still do a 2 year deal... right? His decision to accept or decline the arb isn't relevant to whether they sign him to a multi year deal right?[/quote']

 

I thought arbitration was, by nature, a one year offer. I could be wrong. My recolection is that when players accept arbitration it covers one year; they can avoid it by signing a multi-year contract.

 

No matter what, if he turns down arbitration then they stand to get draft picks, which gives them insurance if he becomes disinterested.

[example1]

I'm not so sure Zumaya will be as cheap as you might hope. Is he worth the risk for $3 million or more?

 

No, not that much.

 

The guy hasn't thrown more than 40 innings since 2006. Perhaps the opportunity for a major role and playing on a contender would entice him to Boston?

[iortiz]

I like to call that approach dumpster diving' date=' and you are right to be concerned, because it almost never works out well.[/quote']

 

Maybe you can handle some deepth at your BP with these kind of pieces but you definitely can not build an entire BP with these kind of pieces, you would be risking a lot, regardless Aceves and Bard would be likely long shots in the rotation already, if this were the scenario, of course.

 

Complicated if they don't bust the cap and resign Ortiz.

[a700hitter]

I thought arbitration was, by nature, a one year offer. I could be wrong. My recolection is that when players accept arbitration it covers one year; they can avoid it by signing a multi-year contract.

 

No matter what, if he turns down arbitration then they stand to get draft picks, which gives them insurance if he becomes disinterested.

Ortiz will have to decide what gives him better leverage accepting or declining arb. If he accepts, he is Sox property for 2012 at probably $14 million or more. This would give him leverage in a 2 year deal if he wants a reduced rate of 2/20 or something like that. I believe he can agree to a deal with the team prior to the arb hearing and it can be a multi-year deal.

 

If he declines arb, he can try to exert pressure using the offers in hand from other teams, but the Sox may not want him for the price, plus they get draft picks if he leaves. I think he has less leverage if he declines... much less.

[a700hitter]

No, not that much.

 

The guy hasn't thrown more than 40 innings since 2006. Perhaps the opportunity for a major role and playing on a contender would entice him to Boston?

1 million? Incentives?

[example1]

Ortiz will have to decide what gives him better leverage accepting or declining arb. If he accepts, he is Sox property for 2012 at probably $14 million or more. This would give him leverage in a 2 year deal if he wants a reduced rate of 2/20 or something like that. I believe he can agree to a deal with the team prior to the arb hearing and it can be a multi-year deal.

 

If he declines arb, he can try to exert pressure using the offers in hand from other teams, but the Sox may not want him for the price, plus they get draft picks if he leaves. I think he has less leverage if he declines... much less.

 

I agree with just about everything you're saying here. The Sox can deal with him for multi years before his decision on arb, I believe. That would basically be him declining arbitration and resigning.

 

Perhaps they want him to decline it so they can do the multi year deal immediately, and move on to other issues. Maybe that's what the article was implying with the deny and sign discussion. That would make sense.

 

If he goes on the market I think he will struggle to get a deal bigger than two years/$16m on the market. Maybe he would get it, I just think that's a lot of money for an aging DH.

 

Plus, if he declines arbitration and goes out to look for better offers, the Sox can basically just hover with a reasonable offer (for them) that probably pays less than they are offering currently.

 

Tough spot for both sides, honestly.

 

Plus, once he's on the market he

[a700hitter]

BTW I absolutely hate Luis Ayala. The guy sucks at any price more than the minimum and his role would have to be the 7th guy out of the pen.

[example1]

1 million? Incentives?

 

Yes. This is all based on his health report, of course. With Zumaya as a MR from the RHP side and Morales from the LHP side they would have two pretty good situational relievers. Neither are long relief options, but in particular matchups they would be tough.

[example1]

BTW I absolutely hate Luis Ayala. The guy sucks at any price more than the minimum and his role would have to be the 7th guy out of the pen.

 

He's one of the few MLB players I literally know nothing about. Perhaps ^ this is why.

[example1]

Doesn't being at the winter meetings as a reporter sound like a great job? Geez, these reporters with their innane tweets. Why do they even bother 80% of the time. A quiet day should be just that, QUIET!

 

A700, someday when I'm old and wealthy, we should meet up down there and do a talksox update thread. Interview random agents, occasional press conferences with GMs, lots of sitting around, arguing across the table from one another over drinks. Sounds fun, actually.

[Elktonnick]

They'd have to roll the dice with bard and Aceves as starters and try to build an entire bullpen on the cheap. Also' date=' if they convert both Bard and Aceves to starters, they will have no depth in the rotation. Who would be the emergency or spot starter? It would take some skill by the GM and the manager to put together and manager a whole new pen.[/quote']

 

Building a bull pen while not easy is cheaper than building a rotation. Plus there are more relievers out on the market. If Bard and Aceves do move th rotation we could see a parade of arms moving through the sox bull pen this year.

[a700hitter]

Yes. This is all based on his health report' date=' of course. With Zumaya as a MR from the RHP side and Morales from the LHP side they would have two pretty good situational relievers. Neither are long relief options, but in particular matchups they would be tough.[/quote']It would be great if Zumaya could hold up over the course of a season, but they would have to sign some alternatives with better track records for durability.

 

BTW Isn't Zumaya the guy who hurt his elbow playing Guitar Hero?

[a700hitter]

Doesn't being at the winter meetings as a reporter sound like a great job? Geez, these reporters with their innane tweets. Why do they even bother 80% of the time. A quiet day should be just that, QUIET!

 

A700, someday when I'm old and wealthy, we should meet up down there and do a talksox update thread. Interview random agents, occasional press conferences with GMs, lots of sitting around, arguing across the table from one another over drinks. Sounds fun, actually.

It sounds like my next career.

[SoxSport]

They are pretty much hamstrung until the Ortiz situation is settled. Unless he is extended now, they'll have to wait until Wed. If he rejects arbitration and is still unsigned, chances are they might finess themselves out of keeping him and use the money where it is needed more--in pitching and maybe a RHd bat for DH/RF. Part of this is PR. They might be secretly hoping he gets an offer they can't match--in which case they can go free agent hunting. You know the Orioles might be just waiting out the Red Sox. Who blinks first.

 

The other option they have is trade--Street or Bailey for closer. They have the pieces to make a deal for either. Gio will cost more. I predict the Yankees will get another LHd starter. More likely a free agent, but they have the pieces to get Gio, too. Steinbrenner would hate to have the Marlins hog the spending spotlight.

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox and Athletics will meet on Tuesday to discuss a potential Andrew Bailey trade.

I love his stuff, but hate his elbow.

[example1]

I love his stuff' date=' but hate his elbow.[/quote']

 

Bailey would be a great addition though. I would start with some combination involving Lowrie and/or Reddick and move up from there.

 

Although I'm a huge Kalish supporter I'm starting to think that if the sox get a solid RF who has a few years left in him, they could officially enter win-now mode and part with Kalish for the right piece. I wouldn't love it but it might be necessary.

 

I wouldn't move him for Bailey though. Fortunately Beane sees value in prospects at all levels so I think guys like Jacobs and Vitek and Coyle would be on the table here too.

[SoxSport]

Bailey would be a great addition though. I would start with some combination involving Lowrie and/or Reddick and move up from there.

 

Although I'm a huge Kalish supporter I'm starting to think that if the sox get a solid RF who has a few years left in him, they could officially enter win-now mode and part with Kalish for the right piece. I wouldn't love it but it might be necessary.

 

I wouldn't move him for Bailey though. Fortunately Beane sees value in prospects at all levels so I think guys like Jacobs and Vitek and Coyle would be on the table here too.

 

Bailey's soundness is questionable, but so is Street's. Beane will want either Reddick or Kalish. Bailey is controllable, so they can start Bard and go after a RHd bat for RF/DH with the $10 mil or so they have to spend if they sign Ortiz.

[commenter]

Bailey's soundness is questionable' date=' but so is Street's. Beane will want either Reddick or Kalish. Bailey is controllable, so they can start Bard and go after a RHd bat for RF/DH with the $10 mil or so they have to spend if they sign Ortiz.[/quote']

 

They still need other relief pitchers & starting pitching. I doubt they sign a big bat for right field. They don't need a right handed bat for DH anyway, they just need someone to platoon with Reddick or Kalish.

 

And you don't go into win mode by giving up your future for a closer with injury problems when you already have a closer.

[jacksonianmarch]

Beane has never valued closers and now that Bailey is arb eligible, his value drops even further. Bailey has been good, but his injury history is shady especially when you talk about the forearm and elbow area. He's also a little overweight, which is obviously an issue for the sox team

[VA Sox Fan]

Beane has never valued closers and now that Bailey is arb eligible' date=' his value drops even further. Bailey has been good, but his injury history is shady especially when you talk about the forearm and elbow area. [b'] He's also a little overweight, which is obviously an issue for the sox team[/b]

 

But not an issue for the NYY? Joba, CC?

[seabeachfred]

They'd have to roll the dice with bard and Aceves as starters and try to build an entire bullpen on the cheap. Also' date=' if they convert both Bard and Aceves to starters, they will have no depth in the rotation. Who would be the emergency or spot starter? It would take some skill by the GM and the manager to put together and manager a whole new pen.[/quote']

 

Who'se minding the store anyway? What's next, closer by committee? This is ridiculous and it starts with the Red Sox determination to resign an Ortiz we can survive without and then walking around with our pants pockets hanging out and signing the likes of bums like Andrew Miller, Brad Penny and their ilk. Bard needs to stay in the bullpen; he's been trained for hit and most likely doesn't have the stamina yet to become a starter. The only way I would say yes to such a stupid proposal as this is if it would guarantee that we finally rid ourselves of Tim Wakefield. Otherwise this makes no sense at all. OK, we have Bard and Aceves in the rotation but can we really believe we can put together a solid bullpen of retreads when we haven't either the money to do so or the reputation of having done so successfully in the past.

[a700hitter]

But not an issue for the NYY? Joba' date=' CC?[/quote']It's not an issue for the Yankees, because they just mix some HGH with fat cells and inject it into their pitchers' arms.